Wednesday (5/30) Numbers

[sfran43]

So about $9M+ for Endgame 6th weekend?!

 

WEEKEND NUMBER	The Avengers	Avengers: Infinity War	Avengers: Endgame	Star Wars: The Force Awakens	Star Wars: The Last Jedi
1	$207,438,708 5-6-12 / 1 4,349 / $47,698 - $207,438,708	$257,698,183 4-29-18 / 1 4,474 / $57,599 - $257,698,183	$357,115,007 4-28-19 / 1 4,662 / $76,601 - $357,115,007	$247,966,675 12-20-15 / 1 4,134 / $59,982 - $247,966,675	$220,009,584 12-17-17 / 1 4,232 / $51,987 - $220,009,584
2	$103,052,274 5-13-12 / 1 4,349 / $23,696 -50.3% $373,071,647	$114,774,810 5-6-18 / 1 4,474 / $25,654 -55.5% $453,107,350	$147,383,211 5-5-19 / 1 4,662 / $31,614 -58.7% $621,277,849	$149,202,860 12-27-15 / 1 4,134 / $36,092 -39.8% $540,058,914	$71,565,498 12-24-17 / 1 4,232 / $16,911 -67.5% $368,167,854
3	$55,644,102 5-20-12 / 1 4,249 / $13,096 -46% $457,665,517	$62,078,047 5-13-18 / 1 4,474 / $13,875 -45.9% $548,090,150	$63,299,904 5-12-19 / 1 4,662 / $13,578 -57.1% $723,745,643	$90,241,673 1-3-16 / 1 4,134 / $21,829 -39.5% $742,208,942	$52,520,140 12-31-17 / 1 4,232 / $12,410 -26.6% $517,218,368
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4	$36,686,871 5-27-12 / 2 3,918 / $9,364 -34.1% $513,371,659	$29,452,903 5-20-18 / 2 4,002 / $7,360 -52.6% $595,813,862	$29,973,505 5-19-19 / 2 4,220 / $7,103 -52.6% $771,368,375	$42,353,785 1-10-16 / 1 4,134 / $10,245 -53.1% $812,734,828	$23,728,944 1-7-18 / 3 4,232 / $5,607 -54.8% $572,691,546
5	$20,486,418 6-3-12 / 3 3,670 / $5,582 -44.2% $552,950,398	$17,294,657 5-27-18 / 3 3,768 / $4,590 -41.3% $622,489,295	$17,200,742 5-26-19 / 3 3,810 / $4,515 -42.6% $798,532,478	$26,342,117 1-17-16 / 3 3,822 / $6,892 -37.8% $852,274,958	$11,854,481 1-14-18 / 6 3,090 / $3,836 -50% $592,129,065
6	$11,249,738 6-10-12 / 5 3,129 / $3,595 -45.1% $572,300,463	$10,507,279 6-3-18 / 4 3,570 / $2,943 -39.2% $643,006,211	-	$14,078,648 1-24-16 / 2 3,365 / $4,184 -46.6% $879,110,994	$6,555,435 1-21-18 / 8 2,456 / $2,669 -44.7% $604,273,911

[tawasal]

7 minutes ago, sfran43 said:

So about $9M+ for Endgame 6th weekend?!

 

WEEKEND NUMBER	The Avengers	Avengers: Infinity War	Avengers: Endgame	Star Wars: The Force Awakens	Star Wars: The Last Jedi
1	$207,438,708 5-6-12 / 1 4,349 / $47,698 - $207,438,708	$257,698,183 4-29-18 / 1 4,474 / $57,599 - $257,698,183	$357,115,007 4-28-19 / 1 4,662 / $76,601 - $357,115,007	$247,966,675 12-20-15 / 1 4,134 / $59,982 - $247,966,675	$220,009,584 12-17-17 / 1 4,232 / $51,987 - $220,009,584
2	$103,052,274 5-13-12 / 1 4,349 / $23,696 -50.3% $373,071,647	$114,774,810 5-6-18 / 1 4,474 / $25,654 -55.5% $453,107,350	$147,383,211 5-5-19 / 1 4,662 / $31,614 -58.7% $621,277,849	$149,202,860 12-27-15 / 1 4,134 / $36,092 -39.8% $540,058,914	$71,565,498 12-24-17 / 1 4,232 / $16,911 -67.5% $368,167,854
3	$55,644,102 5-20-12 / 1 4,249 / $13,096 -46% $457,665,517	$62,078,047 5-13-18 / 1 4,474 / $13,875 -45.9% $548,090,150	$63,299,904 5-12-19 / 1 4,662 / $13,578 -57.1% $723,745,643	$90,241,673 1-3-16 / 1 4,134 / $21,829 -39.5% $742,208,942	$52,520,140 12-31-17 / 1 4,232 / $12,410 -26.6% $517,218,368
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4	$36,686,871 5-27-12 / 2 3,918 / $9,364 -34.1% $513,371,659	$29,452,903 5-20-18 / 2 4,002 / $7,360 -52.6% $595,813,862	$29,973,505 5-19-19 / 2 4,220 / $7,103 -52.6% $771,368,375	$42,353,785 1-10-16 / 1 4,134 / $10,245 -53.1% $812,734,828	$23,728,944 1-7-18 / 3 4,232 / $5,607 -54.8% $572,691,546
5	$20,486,418 6-3-12 / 3 3,670 / $5,582 -44.2% $552,950,398	$17,294,657 5-27-18 / 3 3,768 / $4,590 -41.3% $622,489,295	$17,200,742 5-26-19 / 3 3,810 / $4,515 -42.6% $798,532,478	$26,342,117 1-17-16 / 3 3,822 / $6,892 -37.8% $852,274,958	$11,854,481 1-14-18 / 6 3,090 / $3,836 -50% $592,129,065
6	$11,249,738 6-10-12 / 5 3,129 / $3,595 -45.1% $572,300,463	$10,507,279 6-3-18 / 4 3,570 / $2,943 -39.2% $643,006,211	-	$14,078,648 1-24-16 / 2 3,365 / $4,184 -46.6% $879,110,994	$6,555,435 1-21-18 / 8 2,456 / $2,669 -44.7% $604,273,911

The most likely outcome is 8,5m to 9,5m. As it has finally fallen below IW's weekend numbers. 

AEG might get a slight bump from TS4.

[Juby]

Another +50% weekend drop for Endgame here we go. . .

[ZattMurdock]

Have you all seen how absolutely BONKERS the OS-C numbers are? Holy shit, it could potentially be around $2.72B by Sunday. And we are accounting for an under $9m dom weekend, but please America, don't let us down, haha. OS-C is going absolutely nuts. 

[Minnale101]

3 minutes ago, ZattMurdock said:

Have you all seen how absolutely BONKERS the OS-C numbers are? Holy shit, it could potentially be around $2.72B by Sunday. And we are accounting for an under $9m dom weekend, but please America, don't let us down, haha. OS-C is going absolutely nuts. 

This weekend where did you see the numbers ??

 

endgame did 1.3 million in japan last weekend and will take a big hit with Godzilla releasing 

Edited May 31, 2019 by Minnale101

[Justin4125]

Look at the kind of competition those other films (IW included) had in their 5th weekends, nothing compared to what AEG faces. Plus, from a screens/theater perspective, one 100m release would have been better than 3 wide releases opening from 20m-60m. Too many big films and AEG is the oldest among them, its losing more screens than Pikachu despite still making more money

 

Between the massive screencount drop and the many big wide releases playing in theaters, AEG will have a tough time (this obviously applies to the other films as well, between competition and ER deterioration, many of these films cant catch a break this year)

 

Its looking like this weekend will mark a 100% increase in box office compared to same weekend last year. If only AEG only faced Adrift from last year, then 9-10m would be in the cards

[ZattMurdock]

1 minute ago, Minnale101 said:

This weekend where did you see the numbers ??

 

endgame did 1.3 million in japan last weekend and will take a big hit with Godzilla releasing 

Not the weekend... the weekdays. Go to BOM: https://www.boxofficemojo.com/movies/?id=marvel2019.htm

 

Estimates, but this is Mon-Wed. Even if it includes Thurs for some odd reason (it wasn't like that  last Thursday), absolutely bonkers numbers. Endgame might be around $2.72 by Sunday already, even with an under $10m weekend dom.  

[keysersoze123]

Looking at mimiron. Fri to fri drop looks bad for Endgame at usual locations. Looking at 58% drop for Japan. it should recover over the weekend as saturday is discount ticket day. But at this point it can stop its run and already its amazing number.

[Justin4125]

4 minutes ago, ZattMurdock said:

Have you all seen how absolutely BONKERS the OS-C numbers are? Holy shit, it could potentially be around $2.72B by Sunday. And we are accounting for an under $9m dom weekend, but please America, don't let us down, haha. OS-C is going absolutely nuts. 

I find this hard to believe. Competition has a much larger impact on OS since they dont have same agreements about alloting screens. I find it hard to imagine AEG can hold up, especially due to the rise of day-to-date releases. Its faced two day-to-dates already (Aladdin and Pikachu), and KoTM will be hard to weather. Regardless how KoTM performs, it still means AEG loses most of its screens (esp premiums)

 

Look at Thor Ragnorak's OS drop when Justice League came out (when its weekly OS-C numbers were similar to AEG's at that point in its release). Very hard to hold up internationally with such fierce competition, though I would be very happy if it somehow managed it (think about, UK and SK are already suffering big drops given ridiculous competition)

 

[Justin4125]

4 minutes ago, ZattMurdock said:

Not the weekend... the weekdays. Go to BOM: https://www.boxofficemojo.com/movies/?id=marvel2019.htm

 

Estimates, but this is Mon-Wed. Even if it includes Thurs for some odd reason (it wasn't like that  last Thursday), absolutely bonkers numbers. Endgame might be around $2.72 by Sunday already, even with an under $10m weekend dom.  

I hate to even say this because I firmly believe if circumstances had been just a little different AEG would have the WW crown by now, But Im telling you even the most leggy CBM film would suffer a big OS drop this weekend. By Sunday itll have another ~10m dom and ~8m intl (closer to 2.715bn)

 

Look at all the previous May releases. Even I3 (which arguably had the most dom competition of MCU movies in May) didnt face as many big releases internationally (and due to staggered release schedules, most big movies (even in the summer) only had one or two biggies in their first 6 weeks). Almost every time I take a stance like this on a film its BO does better than expected, I hope that happens here

[ZattMurdock]

2 minutes ago, Justin4125 said:

I hate to even say this because I firmly believe if circumstances had been just a little different AEG would have the WW crown by now, But Im telling you even the most leggy CBM film would suffer a big OS drop this weekend. By Sunday itll have another ~10m dom and ~8m intl (closer to 2.715bn)

 

Look at all the previous May releases. Even I3 (which arguably had the most dom competition of MCU movies in May) didnt face as many big releases internationally (and due to staggered release schedules, most big movies (even in the summer) only had one or two biggies in their first 6 weeks). Almost every time I take a stance like this on a film its BO does better than expected, I hope that happens here

I... would wait for Monday and the actuals buddy. Trust me on that. Also, $10m dom might be a tall order, as long as it's close to that, it's golden. 

[Geo1500]

Where are the thursday numbers? @Charlie Jatinder

[Juby]

There won't be any daily updates till June 10th (see page 3).

[dxmatrixdt]

Booksmart with two of the smallest declines over Tuesday and Wednesday.  Looking for it to stay flat on Thursday.  0.7 + 10.4 = 11.1 and double Thurs on Fri with 3.5 multiplier over weekend to make 4.9 (-29%) 16.0m 10-day total

[RamblinRed]

If AE follows IW's percentages from last year is would translate to about an $9.2M weekend.

Thu - 1.2377

Fri - 2.48

Sat -3.968

Sun - 2.794

 

But with more competition and a larger screen loss count $9M is probably a good target to aim for.

 

[Stewart]

6 hours ago, keysersoze123 said:

Looking at mimiron. Fri to fri drop looks bad for Endgame at usual locations. Looking at 58% drop for Japan. it should recover over the weekend as saturday is discount ticket day. But at this point it can stop its run and already its amazing number.

Thankfully it recovered, only 50% now, which is expected with Zilla, though will do better drop on weekend I suspect. Pikachu down similarly also, so not Endgame's fault.

[cdsacken]

End game has way less screens now. 8m is my target. Anything above is ok. 9m would be amazing

[GOATPeterJackson]

28 minutes ago, cdsacken said:

End game has way less screens now. 8m is my target. Anything above is ok. 9m would be amazing

Why does Mojo say 11.2?

[AlexMA]

6 minutes ago, GOATPeterJackson said:

Why does Mojo say 11.2?

As someone who used to write about that for a website at one point I can tell you those numbers, especially as you start going down, are not as well researched as you would think (because frankly there's just not enough time to do it for everything), certainly not going anywhere as deep as we are here. Simply put I think Brad took a number out of his hat and as long as it's within a 2-3 million margin it's fine, which it will be.

[nguyenkhoi282]

23 minutes ago, GOATPeterJackson said:

Why does Mojo say 11.2?

Because they'd like to?

Anyway we'll probably be looking at 2.715-2.720B by Sunday. I'd much prefer 10M+, but 9.5M is good enough.