Weekend Thread: Weekend Actuals - Godzilla KOTM $47.77M | Aladdin $42.84M | Rocketman $25.72M | MA $18.09M

[xiazhi]

14 minutes ago, UserHN said:

Yeah. Weak Disney slate next year. If the other studios still can't defeat Disney next year, then those studios are naturally weak. 

 

Edited June 1, 2019 by xiazhi

[xiazhi]

21 minutes ago, Alli said:

Next year looks pitiful for Disney. WB  has WW2 and Tenet just that summer. It;s gonna crush disney.

Nuh. 1984 will struggle to beat the original and Nolan's last sifi has underperformed

[Alli]

Just now, xiazhi said:

1984 will struggle to beat the original and Nolan's lastet sifi has underperformed.

wrong on both accounts.  WW2 will make 500. and as much as i don't agree with the RPats casting, nolan movies always deliver in quality and BO

[Minnale101]

3 minutes ago, Cappoedameron said:

You honestly have no idea what you're talking about so I'm not gonna even entertain it. 

 

 

Its okay. You will get over the  disappointment soon 

[TMP]

22 minutes ago, Alli said:

Next year looks pitiful for Disney. WB  has WW2 and Tenet just that summer. It;s gonna crush disney.

WW84 isn't even gonna top black widow... so, no.

[John Marston]

wait! Godzilla vs Kong does have a huge advantage over KOTM

 

 

[Webslinger]

Meh, the results for all three openers are lower than I was hoping for, but none are disastrous.

[a2k]

Pikachu's ww should match KOTM, likely go higher with significantly higher dom and lower China. The prod budget is lower too. It will do more than just break even.

 

using 430 ww (145*0.55 dom + 85*0.25 Ch + 200*0.40 os-Ch) gives 181 returns with 150 prod.

Edited June 1, 2019 by a2k

[Alli]

Just now, TMP said:

WW84 isn't even gonna top black widow... so, no.

lol  you gotta be joking. WW 2 is highly anticipated. No1cur about Black Widow

[xiazhi]

2 minutes ago, Alli said:

wrong on both accounts.  WW2 will make 500. and as much as i don't agree with the RPats casting, nolan movies always deliver in quality and BO

Love your confidence lol

[Menor the Destroyer]

2 minutes ago, Alli said:

lol  you gotta be joking. WW 2 is highly anticipated. No1cur about Black Widow

Above is the 2020 evolution of "there is no hype"

[Alli]

Just now, Menor said:

Above is the 2020 evolution of "there is no hype"

[Maximum Avery]

17 minutes ago, MovieMan89 said:

$672m in its first run to be exact. Aladdin did $472m and also spawned a hugely successful soundtrack and broadway show. Everyone knows TLK was bigger, but the point is I think people have forgotten that Aladdin has always been Disney's runner up in terms of animated monsters. There wasn't even a +50% admissions increase for TLK over Aladdin let alone +100 or +200%, and there sure won't be for live action TLK over live action Aladdin either. 

F.y.i. just by saying "i am sure" when it comes to BO you lose cred

 

 

TTVOMJ

[lorddemaxus]

1 hour ago, TMP said:

 

Why would WB waste it on GvK? Dune has more potential than GvK at this point, why not just move that to Christmas? At the very least, the quality is gonna be better since Denis V's track record is a lot stronger than Adam Wingard's.

GvK has way more potential. Crossover films always make a lot of money compared to other films in those franchises. Dune is much more niche than Godzilla and Kong is more popular than both.

[TMP]

Just now, lorddemaxus said:

GvK has way more potential. Crossover films always make a lot of money compared to other films in those franchises. Dune is much more niche than Godzilla and Kong is more popular than both.

Dune has a way lower floor (that shit could go Valerian), but a much higher ceiling too. Unlike Blade Runner, it's not a sequel to a super niche film, so it could play closer to an epic fantasy adventure a la Aquaman did last Christmas. The highest GvK could possibly go, if everything went right, is... $250m? Maybe $200m more realistically?

[TMP]

WB's low-budget clown films will make more than LEGO, Pikachu, Shazam! and Godzilla combined?

[TMP]

12 minutes ago, John Marston said:

wait! Godzilla vs Kong does have a huge advantage over KOTM

 

 

Return of the V.

[Barnack]

34 minutes ago, Cappoedameron said:

Only on this forum, nowhere else. Not BOA's on social media, not Forbes or Deadline. Not even TPC or WB say it, and they just put the TOHO GM on the Pokemon board of directors. So clearly they're serious about moving forward and don't believe in what some people in this forum say.

One good element Pikachu has going for is having done well domestic, but still saying it is underperforming is not some outrageous claim either.

 

Some example of the latest sony projection in their leaks

 

Movie / net production budget / net budget + bonus at break even / break even point / Return point

 

Sinister Six: 170m / 210m / 394m (124m dbo / 270m intl) / 588.8m

Uncharted: 121m / 121.6m / 290m (111m dbo/178m intl) / 392.6m (151m dbo/242m intl)

Barbie: 51m / 55m / 114.7m / 159.8m

Candyland: 100m / 107m / 178.7m (99.3dbo / 79.4 intl) / 294.3m (163.5/130.8)

 

Angry Bird Target: 150m dbo / 250m intl 400m WW

 

In budget ratio break even / good return point

Sinister 6:  2.32 / 3.46

Uncharted: 2.4 / 3.25

Barbie: 2.25 / 3.133

Candyland: 1.79 / 2.95

 

Not sure how it played out, but they did expect for movie to need a significantly higher box office to turn a nice profit than in some different era and outside a very domestic heavy affair seem to have project that movie would need to make a bit over 3.0 to has high has 3.5 time their budget (when they give a lot of bonus/have partner that took a big risk on it and get rewarded) to turn a good profit (a 12% to 25% ROI depending of the project risk).

 

If pikachu was a 150m movie with a 120m+ P&A, it would not surprise me if the success bar  / budget projection in the studio<s excel sheet was set between 450m and 525m.

 

 

 

Edited June 1, 2019 by Barnack

[lorddemaxus]

Just now, TMP said:

Dune has a way lower floor (that shit could go Valerian), but a much higher ceiling too. Unlike Blade Runner, it's not a sequel to a super niche film, so it could play closer to an epic fantasy adventure a la Aquaman did last Christmas. The highest GvK could possibly go, if everything went right, is... $250m? Maybe $200m more realistically?

The problem is that Dune is so much more complex than Aquaman or Jumanji the year before it. The aesthetic is completely different too and much edgier. If it works, it would be similar to The City of Lost Children (way too complex even for critics), but if Villeneuve strips out everything except for the aesthetic to try to make it an epic, it would be closer to Mortal Engines than Aquaman.

[raulbalarezo]