SPIDER-MAN: FAR FROM HOME WEEK THREAD l 93.6M 3-Day, 185.1M 6-Day. l ****NO SPOILERS**** | Sale $5 off Gold/Premium/Silver l Other #s - TS4 34.3, YDay 10.7, Annabelle 9.7, Aladdin 7.6, Midsommar 6.6 (10.9 5-Day)

[Jonwo]

I wonder if Sony releasing two other Spidey related films before Far From Home may have caused fatigue. Makes me think perhaps there should be a bigger gap between sequels.

[john2000]

1 minute ago, Charlie Jatinder said:

Hell no. 

 

The question is whether 400mn or not.

today looking good at all ?

[MovieMan89]

1 minute ago, Charlie Jatinder said:

Hell no. 

 

The question is whether 400mn or not.

Again, it's going to have to have a wildly different 6 day trajectory than the other two Tuesday 4th openers for that. There's no reason why this would much better than 2x its 6 day. 

[john2000]

1 minute ago, Jonwo said:

I wonder if Sony releasing two other Spidey related films before Far From Home may have caused fatigue. Makes me think perhaps there should be a bigger gap between sequels.

however the ga didnt know that venom had a connection with spiderman, and as a movie it was vastly different, while spiderverse is an animated movie

[John Marston]

Also releasing the movie on Discount Tuesday might have lost them some opening day money. Many people who rush out opening day would be willing to pay the full price 

[JB33]

$39.25M? WTF?? What happened to $50M+?

[Menor the Destroyer]

1 minute ago, Charlie Jatinder said:

Yeah that's why I am saying that anything below 185 is disaspointing and unacceptable. Perhaps Iron Man inflated Homecoming, but even Homecoming was bit disaspointing in opening weekend and then big 2nd weekend drop.

Loved late legs though.

Iron Man would have affected it in other countries also, IM3 did very well in Asia.

1 minute ago, MovieMan89 said:

That 6 day would  only lead to a 300 total or so if we're looking at how TF1 and TASM behaved. And again, neither had the burden of sequel frontloading. 

That further accentuates the point.

[john2000]

Just now, JB33 said:

$39.25M? WTF?? What happened to $50M+?

presale heavy

[MovieMan89]

5 minutes ago, JB33 said:

$39.25M? WTF?? What happened to $50M+?

It seems every non-Disney film really is fucked this summer, even the one that is invited to sit at the Disney table at lunch. 

Edited July 3, 2019 by MovieMan89

[Valonqar]

there's no Spiderman fatigue. There's overreaction and then there's fatigue talk.

[MovieMan89]

Just now, Valonqar said:

there's no Spiderman fatigue. There's overreaction and then there's fatigue talk.

Well it is just an OD, but again this will have to forge its own new trajectory to be anything less than a disappointment DOM with that OD. Not impossible, just saying the OD is not a good sign by any means. 

[Menor the Destroyer]

I just threw the flat/below HC thing out there as a point of curiosity, I still think it'll increase. I'm not sure we will have a good idea of the trajectory until Friday. And yeah if it did go under Homecoming that would certainly be a domestic disappointment, there is absolutely no way it should flat or decrease, it has everything going in its favor and increased by significant margins over Homecoming in China, SK, and Japan. But I don't think it will. Even if that does happen, if it manages to still pull out 1 billion worldwide I'd still label it a success overall, though a disappointment domestically.

Edited July 3, 2019 by Menor

[fabiopazzo2]

3 minutes ago, JB33 said:

$39.25M? WTF?? What happened to $50M+?

Gone, reduce to Atoms

[Valonqar]

1 minute ago, MovieMan89 said:

Well it is just an OD, but again this will have to forge its own new trajectory to be anything less than a disappointment DOM with that OD. Not impossible, just saying the OD is not a good sign by any means. 

OD has reasonable explanation:

 

Canada is recovering from Canada Day the day before.

 

Discount ticket prices (there may not be Tue discount everywhere but it's enough not to get full price from theaters that have it

 

Tuesday's never going to behave like Friday

 

So, to me, there's nothing to worry about. if it was 39.3M Friday opening than yeah, abandon ship. But this...

 

[TwoMisfits]

10 minutes ago, MovieMan89 said:

That 6 day would  only lead to a 300 total or so if we're looking at how TF1 and TASM behaved. And again, neither had the burden of sequel frontloading. There's zero way anyone can convince me under Homecoming is anything less than a big time underperformance given the reception of that movie, the critical reception of this one, and most of all the state of the MCU right now. This should have had 400 in the bag. 

TF1 had Harry Potter open the weekend after...

TASM had Ice Age the weekend after and then Dark Knight...

 

Both movies faced more tentpoles in July/early August than this Spidey is getting...as I already mentioned, there is NO even theoretical tentpole opening next weekend...it is a free and clear path for Spidey to Lion King...neither of these other movies had that set up, so besides being rather old examples, with not truly on-point audiences, you also have different competition sets...

 

So, relax, and be patient with the box office...this is truly a new situation for us to watch...and no one will know anything for a week or more...probably 2nd weekend will give an idea where this is going...

 

[MyMovieCanBeatUpYourMovie]

I wonder how many truly "solo" films we'll see from the MCU going forward that aren't origin stories.  

 

It seems like having one or two other superheroes in the solo films might help them play more like mini-Avengers films in the public's eyes.

 

This is the first MCU film Spidey has been in without Iron Man, after all.

[Valonqar]

Just a reminder that there was panic that CM wouldn't make 400M (let alone pass WW and Katniss) because Monday drop was harsh or something. just another day on BOT. 

[syntaxerror]

Maybe my math is off but I don’t think 1 billion is in any way guaranteed, think some have been misled by the China number which admittedly is big but is not indicative of other OS markets. DOM looks to be flat imho. If so will have to pull 480 OS - China and I dont think that’s assured.

[charlie Jatinder]

In same calender setup, Despicable Me 2

Spoiler

Day	Date	Rank	Gross	% +/- YD / LW*		Theaters / Avg		Gross-to-Date	Day #
Wed	Jul. 3, 2013	1	$35,010,665	-	-	3,956	$8,850	$35,010,665	1
Thu	Jul. 4, 2013	1	$24,546,980	-29.9%	-	3,956	$6,205	$59,557,645	2
Fri	Jul. 5, 2013	1	$30,477,125	+24.2%	-	3,997	$7,625	$90,034,770	3
Sat	Jul. 6, 2013	1	$29,377,950	-3.6%	-	3,997	$7,350	$119,412,720	4
Sun	Jul. 7, 2013	1	$23,662,240	-19.5%	-	3,997	$5,920	$143,074,960	5

 

July 4th dropped 20% from true Wednesday, so around 10% drop for FFH from Wednesday will make sense, as of-course OD has opening day rush. In fact may be even lower.

 

Friday bumped 25% and that's very likely as well but my concern is Saturday drop. We can't afford that.

 

If today 28,

39 28 25 31 31 25 : 179

 

If today 30,

39 30 27 34 34 27: 191

 

If today 25,

39 25 22 28 28 23 : 165

 

 

[MovieMan89]

TASM's holds through Sunday get it 150. TASM's 6 day multi then gets it 285. Giving it TF1's WOM driven multi would still only give it 308. For anyone wondering why I'm saying this OD is not good.