SPIDER-MAN: FAR FROM HOME WEEK THREAD l 93.6M 3-Day, 185.1M 6-Day. l ****NO SPOILERS**** | Sale $5 off Gold/Premium/Silver l Other #s - TS4 34.3, YDay 10.7, Annabelle 9.7, Aladdin 7.6, Midsommar 6.6 (10.9 5-Day)

[Menor the Destroyer]

1 minute ago, syntaxerror said:

Maybe my math is off but I don’t think 1 billion is in any way guaranteed, think some have been misled by the China number which admittedly is big but is not indicative of other OS markets. DOM looks to be flat imho. If so will have to pull 480 OS - China and I dont think that’s assured.

If everything else can combine to be flat Asia will easily put it over. I don't see it being flat there.

[Nero]

6 hours ago, Ryaner90 said:

Lower and lower for spiderman people calling me the troll....

 

This will barley get to 170.. disaster

Did you not read the threads 1st page? Don't troll or you will get banned. 

[charlie Jatinder]

3 minutes ago, syntaxerror said:

Maybe my math is off but I don’t think 1 billion is in any way guaranteed, think some have been misled by the China number which admittedly is big but is not indicative of other OS markets. DOM looks to be flat imho. If so will have to pull 480 OS - China and I dont think that’s assured.

Its going to hit 600mn by Sunday ffs.

[john2000]

1 minute ago, MovieMan89 said:

TASM's holds through Sunday get it 150. TASM's 6 day multi then gets it 285. Giving it TF1's WOM driven multi would still only give it 308. For anyone wondering why I'm saying this OD is not good. 

you said that about od many times, we get it

[john2000]

1 minute ago, Charlie Jatinder said:

Its going to hit 600mn by Sunday ffs.

well for that to happen, would need at least 175 dom right ?

[John Marston]

hmmm looks like TF1 opened on a Monday. So even that might not be a great comparison to use

 

https://www.boxofficemojo.com/movies/?page=daily&id=transformers06.htm

[MovieMan89]

6 minutes ago, TwoMisfits said:

TF1 had Harry Potter open the weekend after...

TASM had Ice Age the weekend after and then Dark Knight...

 

Both movies faced more tentpoles in July/early August than this Spidey is getting...as I already mentioned, there is NO even theoretical tentpole opening next weekend...it is a free and clear path for Spidey to Lion King...neither of these other movies had that set up, so besides being rather old examples, with not truly on-point audiences, you also have different competition sets...

 

So, relax, and be patient with the box office...this is truly a new situation for us to watch...and no one will know anything for a week or more...probably 2nd weekend will give an idea where this is going...

 

Um, Ice Age was not notable competition lol (DOM at least). And TLK could very well be bigger than TDKR. So I'm not seeing how it's in much better shape than TASM in terms of competition. Also, why are we ignoring sequel frontloading? Every MCU direct sequel has had it. That's something neither TASM or TF1 had to worry about. This needs to behave wildly different over the weekend than either of those did or it's in trouble. 

[MovieMan89]

3 minutes ago, John Marston said:

hmmm looks like TF1 opened on a Monday. So even that might not be a great comparison to use

 

https://www.boxofficemojo.com/movies/?page=daily&id=transformers06.htm

They were Monday night previews. If it was released now they would have been counted towards the Tuesday opening. 

[DAJK]

FFH did 38M equivalent Tuesday at my theatre. Thought that was just a bad number so I didn’t bother mentioning it, but it’s ended up being sorta close.

[Webslinger]

Honestly, 39.2 sounds much more realistic to me than the 50+ speculation from yesterday. It had discount Tuesday, no 7:00 night-before previews to boost the number (and it seemed like the midnight shows were relatively limited in scope - anecdotally, many of the theaters I look at didn't run it at midnight despite doing the early openings virtually every week), and the fact that the 4th falls on Thursday should spread business out for much of the general audience. If it drops hard today and doesn't recover tomorrow, then I'll sound the alarm; but for now, I'm not taking that number as a sign of impending doom.

[MovieMan89]

Just now, Webslinger said:

Honestly, 39.2 sounds much more realistic to me than the 50+ speculation from yesterday. It had discount Tuesday, no 7:00 night-before previews to boost the number (and it seemed like the midnight shows were relatively limited in scope - anecdotally, many of the theaters I look at didn't run it at midnight despite doing the early openings virtually every week), and the fact that the 4th falls on Thursday should spread business out for much of the general audience. If it drops hard today and doesn't recover tomorrow, then I'll sound the alarm; but for now, I'm not taking that number as a sign of impending doom.

Movies always drop hard on the 4th. This would be different because?

[MikeQ]

32 minutes ago, John Marston said:

Hard to guess what the opening will be since ASM opened on the 3rd while this opened on the 2nd

I agree. As you mention, The Amazing Spider-Man's calendar configuration meant its opening Tuesday was the 3rd, so that it was opening the day before a holiday (July 4th). This contrasts with Far From Home, which is opening on essentially an ordinary Tuesday with no holiday the next day. It's much more likely, in my mind, with this year's calendar configuration that adults are getting the Thursday and Friday off (July 4th and 5th). Given this, its opening day seems strong to me, and its pattern through to Sunday could be stronger than something like The Amazing Spider-Man.

 

Peace,

Mike

Edited July 3, 2019 by MikeQ

[Menor the Destroyer]

3 minutes ago, MovieMan89 said:

Movies always drop hard on the 4th. This would be different because?

Transformers 1 didn't

[filmlover]

5 minutes ago, MovieMan89 said:

Movies always drop hard on the 4th. This would be different because?

Depends on the weather. Rain means no fireworks.

[baumer]

Homecoming made 154 mill after 6 days.  Pretty sure this is going to be ahead of that.  No reason to think it won't get over 300 mill and come close to or exceed a billion.  Not every MCU film has to shatter the gross of the last film.  I think some of you have gotten greedy and expect too much now.  The MCU universe is the only universe that seems to be making bank with every film they release.  The panic and misinformed vitriol here is really strange.  

 

Just doing a quick check in the Summer game and the average prediction for FFH on the first page of predictions is about 340 million.  That looks to be a good number to shoot for.  So it's kind of doing what people thought it would...to quote Dennis Green...." FFH is who we thought it was!"

 

Not sure what you guys were expecting but I think a lot of you went cockoo for cocoa puffs when Charlie said it would do 50 million at 7AM PST of OD.

[Valonqar]

4 minutes ago, Menor said:

Transformers 1 didn't

it did but previews are counted separately as far as I can see here:

 

https://www.boxofficemojo.com/movies/?page=daily&id=transformers06.htm

 

isn't 8M on Monday a preview? So it went up from True Tuesday but down from Previews+Tuesday combined.

Edited July 3, 2019 by Valonqar

[Menor the Destroyer]

Just now, Valonqar said:

it did just previews are counted separately as far as I can see here:

 

https://www.boxofficemojo.com/movies/?page=daily&id=transformers06.htm

 

isn't 8M on Monday a preview? So it went up from True Tuesday but down from Previews+Tuesday combined.

I mean yeah but that's like saying Saturday decreases from Friday. FFH's July 3rd number won't have previews.

[FTF]

Wait why is a $40m od disappointing??? That’s a really good #.

 

Edit: just saw the $50m early projection by Charlie, guess that’s why 😕.

[Valonqar]

Just now, Menor said:

I mean yeah but that's like saying Saturday decreases from Friday. FFH's July 3rd number won't have previews.

that's why comparison between them doesn't stand. different calendar. it isn't an excuse, just that you have to find a movie that had the same calendar (July 2 = Tuesday, July 4 = Thursday) and then see if it went up or down on 4th. 

[JohnnyGossamer]

10 minutes ago, MikeQ said:

I agree. As you mention, The Amazing Spider-Man's calendar configuration meant its opening Tuesday was the 3rd, so that it was opening the day before a holiday (July 4th). This contrasts with Far From Home, which is opening on essentially an ordinary Tuesday with no holiday the next day. It's much more likely, in my mind, with this year's calendar configuration that adults are getting the Thursday and Friday off (July 4th and 5th). Given this, its opening day seems strong to me, and its pattern through to Sunday could be stronger than something like The Amazing Spider-Man.

 

Peace,

Mike

This. If Sony really was after an impressive opening day, they'd have moved this to today for a five day opening with Wednesday acting as a Friday and Friday acting acting as a Saturday. 

 

Strong opening day. Expecting excellent numbers today and Friday too.