Weekend Thread: Top 5 Actuals- The Lion King $76.62M | OUATIH $41.08M | SM: FFH $12.45M | TS3 $10.45M | CRAWL $4.06M

[KP1025]

Just now, UserHN said:

Is this worldwide? If yes, Disney had 5 films (1st place up to 5th place) in the top 10 in 2016. This year, Disney will have 7.

Sorry, I meant Top 10 on the daily domestic chart.

[Jiffy]

1 hour ago, Thanos Legion said:

 

Neat trivia to notice, and good confirmatory research.

In doing research I was surprised to realize May 2007 is still the only month to ever spawn three $300m+ films. I guess studios learned their lesson with the close scheduling contributing to three (domestic) disappointments. I still remember how hyped up that showdown of the three threequels was and how underwhelming it ended up being (that stat notwithstanding). 

[Porthos]

10 minutes ago, Jiffy said:

In doing research I was surprised to realize May 2007 is still the only month to ever spawn three $300m+ films. I guess studios learned their lesson with the close scheduling contributing to three (domestic) disappointments. I still remember how hyped up that showdown of the three threequels was and how underwhelming it ended up being (that stat notwithstanding). 

What's even crazier is adjusted all of those May movies adjust to 400m+.  I know that there's issues with adjusters, but that's just crazy bananas to think about as an equivalent.

[Minnale101]

All 3 of those movies were disappointing movies to the previous movies. 

 

Shrek 2, dead mans chest and Spider-Man 2 all better than their Sequels

[MrPink]

47 minutes ago, Cmasterclay said:

Of course they are high around us bro, the last Fast sold like Endgame around here lol. We must be the number one market in America for it.

 

Danzo kudurrroooooo

[Legion Again]

15 minutes ago, Porthos said:

What's even crazier is adjusted all of those May movies adjust to 400m+.  I know that there's issues with adjusters, but that's just crazy bananas to think about as an equivalent.

SK may have just released 2 all-time highest Hollywood movies less than a month from each other 👀

 

But also maybe not, still gotta see another couple weeks.

[a2k]

1 hour ago, KP1025 said:

 

Looks like there was a small expansion for KOTM this weekend. 

 

18

(24)

Godzilla: King of the Monsters

Warner Bros.

$222,539

+32%

238

$935

$109,935,054

9

global theatrical revenues roughly (dom + ch + os-ch)

110.5 * 0.55 + 135.5 * 0.25 + 140 * 0.40 = 150.65

hopefully the prod budget was closer to 170 than the rumoured 185+

[filmlover]

1 hour ago, Cmasterclay said:

Of course they are high around us bro, the last Fast sold like Endgame around here lol. We must be the number one market in America for it.

If @Rthroar blesses us with the list of highest grossing individual theaters next weekend I'm expecting the whole top 10 to be made up of theaters from the Miami area alone.

[Menor the Destroyer]

FFH still has a shot at 400 from that Sunday. Above Homecoming dailies again although next weekend will be an issue.

[a2k]

1 minute ago, Menor said:

FFH still has a shot at 400 from that Sunday. Above Homecoming dailies again although next weekend will be an issue.

DH2

Date	Rank	Gross	% Change	Theaters	Per Theater	Total Gross	Week
Jul 15, 2011	1	$169,189,427		4,375	$38,672	$169,189,427	1
Jul 22, 2011	2	$47,422,212	-72%	4,375	$10,839	$273,539,281	2
Jul 29, 2011	4	$21,977,093	-54%	4,145	$5,302	$318,511,602	3
Aug 5, 2011	6	$12,445,031	-43%	3,175	$3,920	$343,086,045	4

 

FFH

Date	Rank	Gross	% Change	Theaters	Per Theater	Total Gross	Week
Jul 5, 2019	1	$92,579,212		4,634	$19,978	$185,063,062	1
Jul 12, 2019	1	$45,353,359	-51%	4,634	$9,787	$274,582,664	2
Jul 19, 2019	2	$21,202,431	-53%	4,415	$4,802	$319,861,843	3
Jul 26, 2019	3	$12,452,143	-41%	3,851	$3,233	$344,707,413	4

 

Great how similar 3 weekends have been. DH2 hyper-frontloaded ow vs FFH 6-day ow make the 2nd weekend drop very contrasting but else has been same beat by beat.

 

DH2 ended with 381 and FFH could do at most GOTG2 total IMO.

[xiazhi]

6 hours ago, tonytr87 said:

 

You all realize 40 mil is great right? Or are you guys stuck in your bubble as usual? 

It needs 400m to break even. With this opening, it will miss that

[Legion Again]

DH2 added 3x the 4th weekend.    

 

Homecoming 4.22x.

 

AM&TW 3.78x.   

 

Given the difference in reception and mega-dead looking August I think FFH can at least match AM&TW for an additional 47M and 390+. 400 would take better legs than AM1 or SMh though, thinking 390s unless fudge is applied.

[a2k]

OUTAH

 

41 ow

5 + 6.5 + 4 + 3 = 18.5,  58.5 7-day

4.75 + 7 + 5.5 = 17.25 (-58%), 75.75 10-day

 

Adding 2.5x the 2nd weekend,

75.75 + 17.25*2.5 = 118.9 dom (2.9x)

 

EQ2 managed 2.83x despite 61% 2nd weekend drop in July

Jul 20–22	1	$36,011,640	-	3,388	-	$10,629	$36,011,640	1
Jul 27–29	3	$14,020,017	-61.1%	3,388	-	$4,138	$64,251,362	2
Aug 3–5	5	$8,755,907	-37.5%	2,725	-663	$3,213	$79,812,172	3
Aug 10–12	8	$5,408,237	-38.2%	2,373	-352	$2,279	$89,554,165	4
Aug 17–19	11	$2,863,549	-47.1%	1,888	-485	$1,517	$94,782,433	5
Aug 24–26	12	$2,032,245	-29.0%	1,914	+26	$1,062	$98,052,577	6
Aug 31–Sep 2	17	$1,459,816	-28.2%	1,476	-438	$989	$100,361,178	7
Aug 31–Sep 3	18	$1,846,665	-9.1%	1,476	-438	$1,251	$100,748,027	7
Sep 7–9	23	$500,678	-65.7%	646	-830	$775	$101,587,436	8
Sep 14–16	32	$200,420	-60.0%	268	-378	$748	$102,004,230	9

Edited July 30, 2019 by a2k

[Porthos]

So I'm looking at TS4 and comparing it to I2's run,  Aside from one weekend (weekend 3), it's had better drops every single weekend.  And WE 3 was only marginally worse (and given the much better WE2 drop no big deal).

 

Its drops have been so better than I2's that it's almost caught up with it on weekend gross despite starting something like 60m behind it.

 

I2 Weekend #6:    $11,895,063

TS4 Weekend #6: $10,453,633    

 

I don't care about double features with TLK, that's flippin' crazy pants consider where each started.

 

I mostly looked at this because I wanted to see how much more TS4 might do if it followed more or less the rest of I2's run.

 

I2 did 50.86m the rest of the way (it was in theaters until flippin' December!!!).  Matching that might be a tall ask, but TS4 could conceivably do another 40m to 45m, I reckon.  Now I2 did have a Labor Day expansion to bump it over 600m.  But then Disney kept it in theaters for another three months anyway, even though it passed 600m with ease!  Maybe they did it for shits and giggles.  No idea.  But the Mouse has been known to leave child friendly movies in theaters forever, so who knows.

 

Another 40m puts TS4 at 436m.  45m puts it over 441m (just short of Shrek 2). If it gets another 50m along the way somehow (LDW expansion with TLK???) it could knock on 450m, though I think that's pretty unlikely.

 

And who would have thought that when it opened at 121m?

[Avatree]

7 hours ago, Thanos Legion said:

😈   

 

So close to Warcraft. Maybe WB can find 3M under the floorboards.

If Warners think they can fudge Pikachu, they are wrong. You cannot beat WARCRAFT.

 

WARCRAFT will reign for at least 10 years+ as highest grossing videogame movie.

 

Edited July 30, 2019 by Avatree

[Legion Again]

Disney isn’t just having great OWs this year, they’re having great 8th-12th weekends.   

 

8th: CM 12th place, Aladdin 39th, should add some more to the top 100  

9th: CM 57, Aladdin 65, should add some more to the top 100

10th:  Endgame 14th, Aladdin 64th  

11th: Endgame 47th, Aladdin probably to make top 100 

 

For lists with so many 20th century movies, it’s quite impressive.

Edited July 30, 2019 by Thanos Legion

[a2k]

11 minutes ago, Porthos said:

So I'm looking at TS4 and comparing it to I2's run,  Aside from one weekend (weekend 3), it's had better drops every single weekend.  And WE 3 was only marginally worse (and given the much better WE2 drop no big deal).

 

Its drops have been so better than I2's that it's almost caught up with it on weekend gross despite starting something like 60m behind it.

 

I2 Weekend #6:    $11,895,063

TS4 Weekend #6: $10,453,633    

 

I don't care about double features with TLK, that's flippin' crazy pants consider where each started.

 

I mostly looked at this because I wanted to see how much more TS4 might do if it followed more or less the rest of I2's run.

 

I2 did 50.86m the rest of the way (it was in theaters until flippin' December!!!).  Matching that might be a tall ask, but TS4 could conceivably do another 40m to 45m, I reckon.  Now I2 did have a Labor Day expansion to bump it over 600m.  But then Disney kept it in theaters for another three months anyway, even though it passed 600m with ease!  Maybe they did it for shits and giggles.  No idea.  But the Mouse has been known to leave child friendly movies in theaters forever, so who knows.

 

Another 40m puts TS4 at 436m.  45m puts it over 441m (just short of Shrek 2). If it gets another 50m along the way somehow (LDW expansion with TLK???) it could knock on 450m, though I think that's pretty unlikely.

 

And who would have thought that when it opened at 121m?

435-450 will give TS4 3.6-3.7x multi. Pretty incredible considering TS3 did 3.77x nearly a decade back with great reception and barely any previews.

[Avatree]

great legs for TS4 considering it's hot garbage!

[TwoMisfits]

7 hours ago, a2k said:

DH2

Date	Rank	Gross	% Change	Theaters	Per Theater	Total Gross	Week
Jul 15, 2011	1	$169,189,427		4,375	$38,672	$169,189,427	1
Jul 22, 2011	2	$47,422,212	-72%	4,375	$10,839	$273,539,281	2
Jul 29, 2011	4	$21,977,093	-54%	4,145	$5,302	$318,511,602	3
Aug 5, 2011	6	$12,445,031	-43%	3,175	$3,920	$343,086,045	4

 

FFH

Date	Rank	Gross	% Change	Theaters	Per Theater	Total Gross	Week
Jul 5, 2019	1	$92,579,212		4,634	$19,978	$185,063,062	1
Jul 12, 2019	1	$45,353,359	-51%	4,634	$9,787	$274,582,664	2
Jul 19, 2019	2	$21,202,431	-53%	4,415	$4,802	$319,861,843	3
Jul 26, 2019	3	$12,452,143	-41%	3,851	$3,233	$344,707,413	4

 

Great how similar 3 weekends have been. DH2 hyper-frontloaded ow vs FFH 6-day ow make the 2nd weekend drop very contrasting but else has been same beat by beat.

 

DH2 ended with 381 and FFH could do at most GOTG2 total IMO.

You miss both that FFH holds slightly better than DH2 every weekend...and holds theaters way better going into this past weekend, which should help it continue to do so as DH2 shed theaters...

 

So, the closeness of the numbers is likely to start to decrease, not increase as we move into later legs...

 

For example, no way is FFH at 2400 theaters this upcoming weekend...

Edited July 30, 2019 by TwoMisfits

[RamblinRed]

7 hours ago, Menor said:

FFH still has a shot at 400 from that Sunday. Above Homecoming dailies again although next weekend will be an issue.

It's not out of the question but it is becoming more unlikely.

While it was above HC on Sunday it has been behind HC in dailies for 8 of the last 10 days. It will likely be behind HC for Monday as HC had a really strong drop - 52%. Next weekend is going to be the weekend where we find out if it really has any shot. FFH has to deal with H&S. HC had a 19M opener in Dark Tower. That's a huge difference in competition. Heck TLK's 3rd weekend will be probably close to double what Dark Tower opened with an OUaTiH might not be too far off it.

 

I'm still thinking somewhere close to GOTG2. 

 

Right now if it followed HC's run exactly it would end up at 400.74M. HC had a 33% drop it's first weekend in August. Hard to see FFH matching that and it is starting from a spot 800K below it. Great Sunday hold though.