Jonwo Posted December 18, 2022 Share Posted December 18, 2022 The Sunday drop of 10% is very encouraging and I expect it'll have good drops for the next few weeks. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Dark Alfred Posted December 18, 2022 Share Posted December 18, 2022 I think that's a very generous estimate from Disney. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Elessar Posted December 18, 2022 Share Posted December 18, 2022 37 minutes ago, The Dark Alfred said: I think that's a very generous estimate from Disney. Might be due to World Cup finale. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UKBoxOffice Posted December 18, 2022 Share Posted December 18, 2022 looks about right to me, similar to Friday 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Krissykins Posted December 19, 2022 Share Posted December 19, 2022 3 hours ago, UKBoxOffice said: looks about right to me, similar to Friday That’s a decent hold in the face of the World Cup final. £11.7m would 6th biggest of the year, I think. No previews though, so would be higher on the list for 3 day only. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sophia Jane Posted December 19, 2022 Share Posted December 19, 2022 (edited) This drop means nothing We should probably face the fact that AVATAR doing not great here I don’t expect any great leggy run here after I seeing the horrible opening,not even think a moment before that UK opening even less than India,it’s disappointed,just like Japan Edited December 19, 2022 by Bruce Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
XXRDJisDoctorDoom Posted December 19, 2022 Share Posted December 19, 2022 26 minutes ago, Bruce said: This drop means nothing We should probably face the fact that AVATAR doing not great here I don’t expect any great leggy run here after I seeing the horrible opening,not even think a moment before that UK opening even less than India,it’s disappointed,just like Japan It should still be able to get into the $55-70M range. That's not amazing but it's far better than what Japan will do. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cdsacken Posted December 19, 2022 Share Posted December 19, 2022 57 minutes ago, XXR Tulkun Rider said: It should still be able to get into the $55-70M range. That's not amazing but it's far better than what Japan will do. true but that's horrific vs the original. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonwo Posted December 19, 2022 Share Posted December 19, 2022 Keep in mind Avatar has no competition for PLFs until February, that should keep it chugging along. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UKBoxOffice Posted December 19, 2022 Share Posted December 19, 2022 Maybe a bit less on Sunday after all - somewhere in the £3.3m range. Weekend is £11.2m Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
charlie Jatinder Posted December 19, 2022 Share Posted December 19, 2022 (edited) Just 1-1.1M admits. Awful weekend. Hopefully can gets some super legs to a face saving 6-7M final number. In comparison other Big 5 France - 1.7M 5-days, real value without France in WC final and semis around 2M Germany - 1.35M 5-days, 1.18M 4-days weekend Italy - 1.14M 5-days, 970K 4-days weekend Spain - 0.97M 3 days Generally UK would be double of Italy and 40-50% higher than France. Comparable UK performance would be around 2M weekend admits. Edited December 19, 2022 by charlie Jatinder Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heretic Posted December 19, 2022 Author Share Posted December 19, 2022 16 minutes ago, charlie Jatinder said: Just 1-1.1M admits. Awful weekend. Hopefully can gets some super legs to a face saving 6-7M final number. In comparison other Big 5 France - 1.7M 5-days, real value without France in WC final and semis around 2M Germany - 1.35M 5-days, 1.18M 4-days weekend Italy - 1.14M 5-days, 970K 4-days weekend Spain - 0.97M 3 days Generally UK would be double of Italy and 40-50% higher than France. Comparable UK performance would be around 2M weekend admits. So you think this was going to open with £22m+? 🤣 Under no circumstances would that ever have happened, and only a few films (Avengers, Potter, SW, Bond) have ever had a £20m 3 day opening. Avatar does not have anywhere near the same fan rush. While this opening is unspectacular and probably a little underwhelming, it is not awful. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heretic Posted December 19, 2022 Author Share Posted December 19, 2022 Also while Avatar was huge here, it was relatively more popular in other European countries (ie France and Germany were bigger than UK which is very rare for most blockbusters, with even Spain and Italy around $100m mark) so standard extrapolation cannot be applied here. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sophia Jane Posted December 19, 2022 Share Posted December 19, 2022 7 minutes ago, Heretic said: Also while Avatar was huge here, it was relatively more popular in other European countries (ie France and Germany were bigger than UK which is very rare for most blockbusters, with even Spain and Italy around $100m mark) so standard extrapolation cannot be applied here. Avatar 1 shatters all time record in UK but not in France and Germany Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
charlie Jatinder Posted December 19, 2022 Share Posted December 19, 2022 16 minutes ago, Heretic said: So you think this was going to open with £22m+? Was thinking around 16-17M with SUN dropping big due to WC final, which in the end it didn't, so around 18-19M. 8 minutes ago, Heretic said: Also while Avatar was huge here, it was relatively more popular in other European countries (ie France and Germany were bigger than UK which is very rare for most blockbusters, with even Spain and Italy around $100m mark) so standard extrapolation cannot be applied here. Ok this is fair point. Spain and Italy admits for A2 are similar to A1, France would have been +12-15%, Germany is +30%. UK A1 admits would be 1.05M, so A2 is similar. So UK faired similar to Spain and Italy while France and Germany improved. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JustLurking Posted December 19, 2022 Share Posted December 19, 2022 1 minute ago, charlie Jatinder said: Was thinking around 16-17M with SUN dropping big due to WC final, which in the end it didn't, so around 18-19M. Ok this is fair point. Spain and Italy admits for A2 are similar to A1, France would have been +12-15%, Germany is +30%. UK A1 admits would be 1.05M, so A2 is similar. So UK faired similar to Spain and Italy while France and Germany improved. Italian market feels like it has shrunk much more to me though for example. If this film does, say, 40M+ final in Italy, which feels realistic to me, it would be the first hollywood film to do so since...well, Avatar. UK going 60-70M would be nowhere near as impressive. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heretic Posted December 19, 2022 Author Share Posted December 19, 2022 (edited) 8 minutes ago, charlie Jatinder said: Was thinking around 16-17M with SUN dropping big due to WC final, which in the end it didn't, so around 18-19M. Ok this is fair point. Spain and Italy admits for A2 are similar to A1, France would have been +12-15%, Germany is +30%. UK A1 admits would be 1.05M, so A2 is similar. So UK faired similar to Spain and Italy while France and Germany improved. What would be interesting is to see what drops will be in local currency for end gross for all markets, as that removes currency complications also for comparison purposes. UK I think is looking at ~40% drop from Avatar in pounds, but potentially 55%+ in $. But we’ll have to wait and see how strong legs are. Could even be higher. Edited December 19, 2022 by Heretic Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heretic Posted December 19, 2022 Author Share Posted December 19, 2022 3 minutes ago, JustLurking said: Italian market feels like it has shrunk much more to me though for example. If this film does, say, 40M+ final in Italy, which feels realistic to me, it would be the first hollywood film to do so since...well, Avatar. UK going 60-70M would be nowhere near as impressive. This is also a good point and shows that there are many considerations to be taken into account, including the post covid impact on cinema going , and market shift to streaming which was almost non existent in Avatar’s time. Even in the UK this is relevant. Although we have seen some huge grosses post-covid here, it is mostly reserved for massive fan driven films like NWH, nostalgia driven films like Top Gun, and Bond which is a national treasure here. More ‘ standard’ films I think are increasingly struggling to make their mark. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ipickthiswhiterose Posted December 19, 2022 Share Posted December 19, 2022 30 minutes ago, Bruce said: Avatar 1 shatters all time record in UK but not in France and Germany Am I right in recalling though that in $ Avatar came out at a time of a ridiculous $/£ exchange rate? I mean the difference between the mid 2000s and now is enormous. Surely theres's no way a movie now can make in $ conversion what it would have done in 2004-2010. I may be completely wrong. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ipickthiswhiterose Posted December 19, 2022 Share Posted December 19, 2022 19 hours ago, Issac Newton said: This is going to chug, chug, chug right through Christmas surely. Not sure when the Netflix release is though. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...