Weekend Thread: Weekend Estimates - Jokah 55, Addams 30.3, Gemini 20.5, Abominable 6.2, Downton 4.9 | Parasite generates 125.4K PTA (highest since La La Land)

[RealLyre]

33 minutes ago, lorddemaxus said:

Lol, what? People were shouting "FLOP" right from the start. But you totally knew the movie would make a billion.

no one really expected Aladdin to be the best Disney live action remake after the first few trailers. 

[Johnny Tran]

37 minutes ago, narniadis said:

keep it up dude. Trying to rewrite the forums history is always funny. 

I said that it would do a billion. I don't know what other people said.  Why would anyone say "Dumbo numbers" when Aladdin has always been more popular?   

[efialtes76]

54 minutes ago, titanic2187 said:

Clearly PG13 and family flicks are the most benefited ones, don't expect Joker to have bigger Monday than last week   

Anything around $7.5M-$8M would be a win. 

Edited October 14, 2019 by efialtes76

[Johnny Tran]

Beauty and the Beast,  Aladdin,  Lion King and Little Mermaid all came out within a 5-year span.  They were all HUGELY popular and fit that "90's nostalgia" that's the wave even though Mermaid came out in 1989 but most think of it as a 90s movie. 

 

Beauty and the Beast made $1.26 billion.   Well,  it was never that much more popular than Aladdin.  Aladdin was every bit as big, it had a widely popular video game and many spin offs.   Aladdin had an iconic performance from Robin Williams. 

 

So if Beauty and the Beast is going to do that much then it makes sense for a billion to be the floor for Aladdin and that's what I said it should do. 

 

The floor for Little Mermaid will also be a billion. 

[lorddemaxus]

19 minutes ago, RealLyre said:

no one really expected Aladdin to be the best Disney live action remake after the first few trailers. 

Ummm no.

[YM!]

I mean there’s no lying that we massively underpredicted Aladdin, but let’s face it, even in hindsight it always seemed more than a safer bet than Joker, which was a 2 hour hard R rated action-less, drama heavy CBM. Prediction wise Aladdin’s floor was likely the ceiling for Joker.

[DAJK]

14 minutes ago, YourMother the Edgelord said:

I mean there’s no lying that we massively underpredicted Aladdin, but let’s face it, even in hindsight it always seemed more than a safer bet than Joker, which was a 2 hour hard R rated action-less, drama heavy CBM. Prediction wise Aladdin’s floor was likely the ceiling for Joker.

To be fair you could also add “based on one of the most iconic and popular characters ever created”. Add to that perfect marketing (unlike aladdin). 

[Johnny Tran]

And no,  I'm not always right quite opposite actually.   I thought the ceiling for Joker was $650-$700M without China and that was being generous, it was more of me wanting to see it get there than thinking it would.  I actually thought $500M would be a big win and it's already surpassed that. 

 

I never expected $900M+ or wherever it will land.   A hard R,  not a family movie at all,   no China..      this run is amazing. 

[Porthos]

37 minutes ago, Johnny Tran said:

I said that it would do a billion. I don't know what other people said.  Why would anyone say "Dumbo numbers" when Aladdin has always been more popular?   

Because it had, if not quite toxic buzz for nearly a year, really really really bad buzz for about nine months?

[Johnny Tran]

7 minutes ago, Porthos said:

Because it had, if not quite toxic buzz for nearly a year, really really really bad buzz for about nine months?

I understand but Social media "buzz" doesn't always translate.   Families don't care if Aladdin and Lion King look like shit.   A father isn't going to tell their 7-year old daughter and 8-year old son that Will Smith looks horrible and the CGI looks off...  Plus,  if the guy and his wife grew up in the 90s they are going to hope it captures some of the same elements from the animated. 

 

I don't care how bad Little Mermaid will look.  We can make fun of it on here and post memes and whatever,  it means very little. 

Edited October 14, 2019 by Johnny Tran

[Porthos]

2 minutes ago, Porthos said:

Because it had, if not quite toxic buzz for nearly a year, really really really bad buzz for about nine months?

Hell even in the last month before release, while the buzz obviously started to turn into a much more positive direction, there still was a fair amount of bad buzz.  Mostly centered around Marwan Kenzari as Jafar and some Y-I-K-E-S level early screening reactions.

 

At the same time the reaction to the soundtrack was off the charts and counter buzz about it being a fun enjoyable film that actually did come together really started to build.

 

But to say there wasn't a tremendous backlash initially to Will Smith as the Genie when pics of him as the Genie first came out nor that it had a near disastrous initial impression at CinemaCon the year before just isn't correct.  

 

Folks were too hard on it on this board.  Pile on mentality is real around here.  At the same time, no denying that "Not Great, Bob" was the watchword around Aladdin for quite a while if one just paid attention to the buzz around it.

[a2k]

193.6 by Sun

 

7.5 (-55%)

7.0 (-7%)

4.5 (-36%)

4.25 (-6.25%)

= 23.25

 

9.25 (+118%)

13.0 (+40.5%)

9.0 (-31%)

= 31.25 (-44%)

 

193.6 + 23.25 + 31.25 = 248.1 by 3rd weekend

Edited October 14, 2019 by a2k

[Porthos]

14 minutes ago, Johnny Tran said:

I understand but Social media "buzz" doesn't always translate.   Families don't care if Aladdin and Lion King look like shit.   A father isn't going to tell their 7-year old daughter and 8-year old son that Will Smith looks horrible and the CGI looks off...  Plus,  if the guy and his wife grew up in the 90s they are going to hope it captures some of the same elements from the animated. 

 

I don't care how bad Little Mermaid will look.  We can make fun of it on here and post memes and whatever,  it means very little. 

But the thing is, bad buzz has translated into lower numbers and Disney isn't immune to it. TLK is one example of probably not reaching potential, at least in the DOM market.  Sure TLK did what I  more or less expected (and I have the posts to back it up).  But it also clearly could have done better here if it had hit more of a cultural zeitgeist. or if it didn't have the problems I saw coming when when I started thinking of a 525 to 540 or a 540 to 550 range for it.

 

And it wasn't just here.  The trades seriously low-balled Aladdin, both in OW and projected final total.  It blew by tracking by, what, 25m, 30m on OW?   That hardly ever happens except on films knocking on 200m+ where tracking models break down.

 

For that to happen to a 90m opener is insane.

 

I'll agree that in a vacuum the potential for Aladdin to do 1b WW was always there, for the reasons you citied earlier.  But, until the relative last minute at least, Disney so badly botched the marketing and rollout of the film that I don't blame people for being skeptical of it.  Not sub 200m DOM skeptical, no.  But the skepticism wasn't just here, but industry wide.

Edited October 14, 2019 by Porthos

[AndyK]

4 minutes ago, a2k said:

I can't seem to get a strong 3rd weekend hold for Joker. Maybe my Wed hold is too pessimistic.

 

193.6 by Sun

 

7.0

6.5 (-7%)

4.0 (-38.5%)

3.75 (-6.25%)

= 21.25

 

8.25 (+120%)

12.0 (+45.5%)

8.5 (-29%)

= 28.25 (-49%)

 

193.6 + 21.25 + 28.25 = 243.1 by 3rd weekend

If it tracks wonder woman as closely as it is ATM, 3rd weekend will be around $40m.

[stephanos13]

Actuals later today or tomorrow?

[TheDarkKnightOfSteel]

What are the actual DOM and OS?

[grim22]

1 minute ago, stephanos13 said:

Actuals later today or tomorrow?

Tomorrow. Hollywood is on holiday 

[sfran43]

 

Nice increase from estimate

 

PARASITE (2019) Neon 3

$119,272 -- / $39,757 $119,272 / 1

$141,992 +19% / $47,331 $261,264 / 2

$115,000 -19% / $38,333 $376,264 / 3

Edited October 14, 2019 by sfran43

[sfran43]

Slight increase for Gemini Man

 

GEMINI MAN Paramount 3,642

$7,500,000 -- / $2,059 $7,500,000 / 1

$7,750,000 +3.3% / $2,128 $15,250,000 / 2

$5,250,000 -32.3% / $1,442 $20,500,000 / 3

Edited October 14, 2019 by sfran43

[narniadis]

13 minutes ago, grim22 said:

Tomorrow. Hollywood is on holiday 

Needed reminder. Can always tell when more new posters are around since so many have no patience 😂 not that we were better 15 years ago, just a different form of data to deal with.