Cooper Legion Posted December 13, 2019 Share Posted December 13, 2019 59 minutes ago, Menor said: 430 seems very low. Even Catching Fire added 4.9x it's 4th weekend, and F2 has been consistently having better drops than that film. TROS opening will hurt a bit but F2 should also have a pretty good bump from the Christmas period. Yeah, I mean it is very low imo too but I my main point is that floors should be low, and 460 wasn’t enough so. Maybe 440 or 445 or something if you prefer. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cooper Legion Posted December 13, 2019 Share Posted December 13, 2019 (edited) 1 hour ago, pepsa said: Isn't the SK range a bit to high? The ATP atm is 7.01 USD so to get $105m it should do 15m admission and that seems a bit crazy to me. With current ATP the admission range would be 13.55m to 15m. Hmm, I just did some quick mental math, let’s look at this a bit more closely. Last weekend Disney estimated 75.5 for SK. KOBIZ has 76.27, but that is an actual and the actuals were a bit higher than estimates across board. So I’ll just take KOBIZ numbers going forward. Last week (7 days, that is) 1.8026M admits, $12.955M, $7.19 ATP. I think the main difference in our calculations is here, where I was using a more recent ATP instead of the full run ATP. So to get to 95-105, is adding $14.2-$24.2M, is a further 1.98-3.37 admits, is a total of 13.34-14.73M. The very high end looks to high for me, but the low end looks reasonable, and I didn’t want to quibble with like, 94-102 or something. Edited December 13, 2019 by Arendelle Legion 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pepsa Posted December 13, 2019 Share Posted December 13, 2019 2 minutes ago, Arendelle Legion said: Hmm, I just did some quick mental math, let’s look at this a bit more closely. Last weekend Disney estimated 75.5 for SK. KOBIZ has 76.27, but that is an actual and the actuals were a bit higher than estimates across board. So I’ll just take KOBIZ numbers going forward. Last week (7 days, that is) 1.8026M admits, $12.955, $7.19 ATP. I think the main difference in our calculations is here, where I was using a more recent ATP instead of the full run ATP. So to get to 95-105, is adding $14.2-$24.2M, is a further 1.98-3.37 admits, is a total of 13.34-14.73M. The very high end looks to high for me, but the low end looks reasonable, and I didn’t want to quibble with like, 94-102 or something. I see My guess would be that it lands around EG atm. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cooper Legion Posted December 13, 2019 Share Posted December 13, 2019 And using my current rough guess of 940k weekend, here’s the projection table for SK: cume wk avg drop wk multi final 12.13 1.43 57.5% 1.74 13.181 12.13 1.43 55.0% 1.82 13.294 12.13 1.43 52.5% 1.90 13.417 12.13 1.43 50.0% 2.00 13.553 12.13 1.43 47.5% 2.11 13.703 12.13 1.43 45.0% 2.22 13.870 12.13 1.43 42.5% 2.35 14.057 12.13 1.43 40.0% 2.50 14.266 12.13 1.43 37.5% 2.67 14.504 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
edroger3 Posted December 13, 2019 Share Posted December 13, 2019 5 hours ago, LPLC said: Hello, here is my final projections for frozen 2 box office after some analyses : NA : $460M-$490M Austria : $6M-$8M Argentina : $7M-$12M Belgium : $6M-$9M Bolivia : $1M-$2M Bulgaria : $1M-$2M Brazil : $25M-$35M Croatia : $1M Chile : $3M-$4M Czech Republic : $2M-$4M Colombia : $4.5M-$5.5M Denmark : $6M-$9M Mexico : $23M-$28M Egypt : $0.5M-$1.5M Paraguay : $0.5M Finland : $3.5M-$4M Uruguay : $0.5M-$1M France : $55M-$65M Venezuela : $0.5M-$1M Germany : $55M-$65M Total Latin America : $66M - $89M Greece : $2M-$3M Hungary : $2.5M-$3.5M Hong Kong : $6.5M-$7.5M Iceland : $0.5M India : $8M-$8.5M Italy : $20M-$23M Indonesia : $14M-$14.5M Lithuania : $0.5M-$1M Japan : $150M-$180M Netherlands : $8M-$10M Malaysia : $8.5M-$9M Norway : $6M-$8M Philippines :$15.5M-$16M Poland : $13M-$16M Russia/CIS : $32M-$38M Portugal : $3M-$3.5M Singapore : $5M-$6M Romania : $2.5M-$3M South Korea : $95M-$105M Serbia : $0.5M-$1M Taiwan : $10M-$12M Slovakia : $1M-$1.5M Thailand : $6M-$6.5M Slovenia : $0.5M Vietnam : $3.5M-$4M Spain : $21M-$26M Total Asia : $354M - $407M Sweden : $7M-$11M Switzerland : $5.5M-$6.5M Australia : $20M-$25M Turkey : $4M-$4.5M New Zealand : $3M-$4M Ukraine : $4M-$4.5M Total Oceania : $23M-$29M United Kingdom : $65M-$70M Total Europe : $303M-$366M China : $110M-$120M Nigeria : $0.5M Middle East : $6M-$8M South Africa : $3.5-4.5M Total Africa : $4M-$5M Other countries : $30M-$60M Total : $1356M (min range) - $1574M (max. range) = $1465M (med. range) Please tel me your predictions or why for some countries I'm wrong for example, all of your analyses is good to complete this one Out of single markets numbers, the big question is: how the Holidays will works?. If F2 have a boost similar (meaning a bit softer) than F1 it will end near your max range, if not, near your min range, or lower. Basing on F1 numbers, F2 is losing 100-120 in Japan, but recover those $$ (or more) in other asians. So, to go over F1 it needs to be over at least 120 in Asia (minus Japan) in USA (easy), Europe (hard whitout strong Holidays) and LA (terrible ER). Rest of the world does not count much. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LPLC Posted December 14, 2019 Share Posted December 14, 2019 NA : $460M-$490M Austria : $6M-$8M. Argentina : $7M-$12M Belgium : $7M-$10M Bolivia : $1M-$2M Bulgaria : $1M-$2M Brazil : $25M-$35M Croatia : $1M Chile : $3M-$4M Czech Republic : $2M-$4M Colombia : $4.5M-$5.5M Denmark : $6M-$9M Mexico : $23M-$28M Egypt : $0.5M-$1.5M Paraguay : $0.5M Finland : $3.5M-$4M Uruguay : $0.5M-$1M France : $55M-$65M Venezuela : $0.5M-$1M Germany : $55M-$65M Total Latin America : $66M - $89M Greece : $2M-$3M Hungary : $2.5M-$3.5M Hong Kong : $6.5M-$7.5M Iceland : $0.5M India : $8M-$8.5M Italy : $20M-$23M Indonesia : $14M-$14.5M Lithuania : $0.5M-$1M Japan : $150M-$180M Netherlands : $8M-$10M Malaysia : $8.5M-$9M Norway : $6M-$8M Philippines :$15.5M-$16M Poland : $13M-$16M Russia/CIS : $32M-$38M Portugal : $3M-$3.5M Singapore : $5M-$6M Romania : $2.5M-$3M South Korea : $95M-$105M Serbia : $0.5M-$1M Taiwan : $10M-$12M Slovakia : $1M-$1.5M Thailand : $6M-$6.5M Slovenia : $0.5M Vietnam : $3.5M-$4M Spain : $23M-$29M Total Asia : $354M - $407M Sweden : $7M-$11M Switzerland : $5.5M-$6.5M Australia : $20M-$25M Turkey : $4M-$4.5M New Zealand : $3M-$4M Ukraine : $4M-$4.5M Total Oceania : $23M-$29M United Kingdom : $65M-$70M Total Europe : $306M-$370M China : $118M-$123M Nigeria : $0.5M Middle East : $6M-$8M South Africa : $3.5-4.5M Total Africa : $4M-$5M Other countries : $30M-$60M Total : $1367M (min range) - $1581M (max. range) = $1474M (med. range) I made some updates with what you say, if you think I'm wrong anywhere, tell to me and I will update this again, thank you 7 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PKMLover Posted December 15, 2019 Share Posted December 15, 2019 @Jedi Jat what is your estimation after this weekend? you have the number yet? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
charlie Jatinder Posted December 15, 2019 Share Posted December 15, 2019 (edited) $55-56mn Approx 4th Weekend FSS. $667-669mn cume. Edited December 15, 2019 by Jedi Jat 3 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
charlie Jatinder Posted December 15, 2019 Share Posted December 15, 2019 On 12/12/2019 at 10:54 PM, edroger3 said: India 0,60 6,66 1110,00% India is $7.3mn till last Sunday. Disney is underreporting. Will cross $8mn today. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PKMLover Posted December 15, 2019 Share Posted December 15, 2019 (edited) 11 minutes ago, Jedi Jat said: $55-56mn Approx 4th Weekend FSS. $648-650mn cume. Last weekend OS = 584, so: 650 - 584 = 66 66 - 55 = 11 Weekdays = 11 ? @.@ Edited December 15, 2019 by PKMLover Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Valonqar Posted December 15, 2019 Share Posted December 15, 2019 Excellent numbers. Holidays are coming plus more markets to open in after holidays. Is 1 billie OS sill on table? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LPLC Posted December 15, 2019 Share Posted December 15, 2019 5 minutes ago, Jedi Jat said: $55-56mn Approx 4th Weekend FSS. $648-650mn cume. You said $675M days ago, and a $56M week end means only $8M weekdays ... So Frozen 2 will maybe not have a billion by sunday .. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
peludo Posted December 15, 2019 Share Posted December 15, 2019 2 hours ago, LPLC said: You said $675M days ago, and a $56M week end means only $8M weekdays ... So Frozen 2 will maybe not have a billion by sunday .. It was at 351 million DOM on Friday. If he is saying 648-650 OS, you already have the billion. After that, add Sat and Sun figures DOM... You will see the billion today. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
oMeriMombatti Posted December 15, 2019 Share Posted December 15, 2019 Frozen II passed the $1 billion global mark this weekend. The film grossed an estimated $55.7M internationally this weekend. International total stands at $666.0M, global total stands at $1.033B.#Frozen2 #BoxOffice @DisneyAnimation @DisneyFrozen pic.twitter.com/FsNHGzITkk — BoxOfficeReport.com (@BORReport) December 15, 2019 5 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cooper Legion Posted December 15, 2019 Share Posted December 15, 2019 Quote International total stands at $666.0M Now that’s what I call a good omen 😈 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fullbuster Posted December 15, 2019 Share Posted December 15, 2019 I think Frozen 2 can act as a strong counter-program to Star Wars IX so it should be fine, particularly with holidays. At least in the West and Japan as SW9 is unlikely to affect it in Asia and Latin America. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
charlie Jatinder Posted December 15, 2019 Share Posted December 15, 2019 (edited) 3 hours ago, Jedi Jat said: $55-56mn Approx 4th Weekend FSS. $667-669mn cume. Shit. I forget to add the Week 0 in my new sheet. My estimate are $668mn. https://imgur.com/gallery/TpntQLn Edited December 15, 2019 by Jedi Jat 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Steven Posted December 15, 2019 Share Posted December 15, 2019 Estimated international totals through Sunday for Frozen II include: China - $111.5M S. Korea - $85.4MJapan - $67.3MU.K. - $49.6MGermany - $39.9MFrance - $37.0MRussia - $26.9MMexico - $23.8MItaly - $17.3MSpain - $17.0M Australia - $15.5M 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Valonqar Posted December 15, 2019 Share Posted December 15, 2019 1 hour ago, Fullbuster said: I think Frozen 2 can act as a strong counter-program to Star Wars IX so it should be fine, particularly with holidays. At least in the West and Japan as SW9 is unlikely to affect it in Asia and Latin America. agreed! 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
edroger3 Posted December 15, 2019 Share Posted December 15, 2019 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...