Frozen II 971m OS 1.44B WW

[Legion Again]

59 minutes ago, Menor said:

430 seems very low. Even Catching Fire added 4.9x it's 4th weekend, and F2 has been consistently having better drops than that film. TROS opening will hurt a bit but F2 should also have a pretty good bump from the Christmas period. 

Yeah, I mean it is very low imo too but I my main point is that floors should be low, and 460 wasn’t enough so. Maybe 440 or 445 or something if you prefer.

[Legion Again]

1 hour ago, pepsa said:

Isn't the SK range a bit to high?

The ATP atm is 7.01 USD so to get $105m it should do 15m admission and that seems a bit crazy to me.

With current ATP the admission range would be 13.55m to 15m.

Hmm, I just did some quick mental math, let’s look at this a bit more closely.    
 

Last weekend Disney estimated 75.5 for SK. KOBIZ has 76.27, but that is an actual and the actuals were a bit higher than estimates across board. So I’ll just take KOBIZ numbers going forward.    
 

Last week (7 days, that is) 1.8026M admits, $12.955M, $7.19 ATP. I think the main difference in our calculations is here, where I was using a more recent ATP instead of the full run ATP.    
 

So to get to 95-105, is adding $14.2-$24.2M, is a further 1.98-3.37 admits, is a total of 13.34-14.73M. The very high end looks to high for me, but the low end looks reasonable, and I didn’t want to quibble with like, 94-102 or something. 

Edited December 13, 2019 by Arendelle Legion

[pepsa]

2 minutes ago, Arendelle Legion said:

Hmm, I just did some quick mental math, let’s look at this a bit more closely.    
 

Last weekend Disney estimated 75.5 for SK. KOBIZ has 76.27, but that is an actual and the actuals were a bit higher than estimates across board. So I’ll just take KOBIZ numbers going forward.    
 

Last week (7 days, that is) 1.8026M admits, $12.955, $7.19 ATP. I think the main difference in our calculations is here, where I was using a more recent ATP instead of the full run ATP.    
 

So to get to 95-105, is adding $14.2-$24.2M, is a further 1.98-3.37 admits, is a total of 13.34-14.73M. The very high end looks to high for me, but the low end looks reasonable, and I didn’t want to quibble with like, 94-102 or something. 

I see My guess would be that it lands around EG atm.

[Legion Again]

And using my current rough guess of 940k weekend, here’s the projection table for SK:  

cume   wk   avg drop wk multi  final

12.13    1.43    57.5%    1.74    13.181
12.13    1.43    55.0%    1.82    13.294
12.13    1.43    52.5%    1.90    13.417
12.13    1.43    50.0%    2.00    13.553
12.13    1.43    47.5%    2.11    13.703
12.13    1.43    45.0%    2.22    13.870
12.13    1.43    42.5%    2.35    14.057
12.13    1.43    40.0%    2.50    14.266
12.13    1.43    37.5%    2.67    14.504

[edroger3]

5 hours ago, LPLC said:

Hello, here is my final projections for frozen 2 box office after some analyses :

 

NA : $460M-$490M

 

Austria : $6M-$8M                               Argentina  :  $7M-$12M

Belgium : $6M-$9M                              Bolivia : $1M-$2M

Bulgaria : $1M-$2M                               Brazil : $25M-$35M

Croatia : $1M                                           Chile : $3M-$4M

Czech Republic : $2M-$4M                   Colombia : $4.5M-$5.5M

Denmark : $6M-$9M                              Mexico : $23M-$28M

Egypt : $0.5M-$1.5M                               Paraguay : $0.5M

Finland : $3.5M-$4M                                Uruguay : $0.5M-$1M

France : $55M-$65M                                Venezuela : $0.5M-$1M

Germany : $55M-$65M                            Total Latin America : $66M - $89M

Greece : $2M-$3M

Hungary : $2.5M-$3.5M                             Hong Kong : $6.5M-$7.5M

Iceland : $0.5M                                            India : $8M-$8.5M

Italy : $20M-$23M                                       Indonesia : $14M-$14.5M

Lithuania : $0.5M-$1M                                 Japan : $150M-$180M

Netherlands : $8M-$10M                             Malaysia : $8.5M-$9M

Norway : $6M-$8M                                       Philippines :$15.5M-$16M

Poland : $13M-$16M                                      Russia/CIS : $32M-$38M

Portugal : $3M-$3.5M                                    Singapore : $5M-$6M

Romania : $2.5M-$3M                                    South Korea : $95M-$105M

Serbia : $0.5M-$1M                                         Taiwan : $10M-$12M

Slovakia : $1M-$1.5M                                       Thailand : $6M-$6.5M

Slovenia : $0.5M                                                Vietnam : $3.5M-$4M

Spain : $21M-$26M                                           Total Asia : $354M - $407M

Sweden : $7M-$11M                                                   

Switzerland : $5.5M-$6.5M                                Australia : $20M-$25M

Turkey : $4M-$4.5M                                            New Zealand : $3M-$4M

Ukraine : $4M-$4.5M                                           Total Oceania : $23M-$29M

United Kingdom : $65M-$70M                                        

Total Europe : $303M-$366M                              China : $110M-$120M

                                                                        

Nigeria : $0.5M                                                       Middle East : $6M-$8M

South Africa : $3.5-4.5M                                              

Total Africa : $4M-$5M                                     Other countries : $30M-$60M

 

Total : $1356M (min range) - $1574M (max. range) = $1465M (med. range)               

 

Please tel me your predictions or why for some countries I'm wrong for example, all of your analyses is good to complete this one 

Out of single markets numbers, the big question is: how the Holidays will works?. If F2 have a boost similar (meaning a bit softer) than F1 it will end near your max range, if not, near your min range, or lower.

 

Basing on F1 numbers, F2 is losing 100-120 in Japan, but recover those $$ (or more) in other asians. So, to go over F1 it needs to be over at least 120 in Asia (minus Japan) in USA (easy), Europe (hard whitout strong Holidays) and LA (terrible ER). Rest of the world does not count much.

[LPLC]

NA : $460M-$490M

 

Austria : $6M-$8M.                   Argentina  :  $7M-$12M

Belgium : $7M-$10M                 Bolivia : $1M-$2M

Bulgaria : $1M-$2M                   Brazil : $25M-$35M

Croatia : $1M                              Chile : $3M-$4M

Czech Republic : $2M-$4M      Colombia : $4.5M-$5.5M

Denmark : $6M-$9M                  Mexico : $23M-$28M

Egypt : $0.5M-$1.5M                  Paraguay : $0.5M

Finland : $3.5M-$4M                   Uruguay : $0.5M-$1M

France : $55M-$65M                  Venezuela : $0.5M-$1M

Germany : $55M-$65M          Total Latin America : $66M - $89M

Greece : $2M-$3M

Hungary : $2.5M-$3.5M             Hong Kong : $6.5M-$7.5M

Iceland : $0.5M                            India : $8M-$8.5M

Italy : $20M-$23M                      Indonesia : $14M-$14.5M

Lithuania : $0.5M-$1M                Japan : $150M-$180M

Netherlands : $8M-$10M            Malaysia : $8.5M-$9M

Norway : $6M-$8M                      Philippines :$15.5M-$16M

Poland : $13M-$16M                    Russia/CIS : $32M-$38M

Portugal : $3M-$3.5M                  Singapore : $5M-$6M

Romania : $2.5M-$3M                  South Korea : $95M-$105M

Serbia : $0.5M-$1M                       Taiwan : $10M-$12M

Slovakia : $1M-$1.5M                    Thailand : $6M-$6.5M

Slovenia : $0.5M                             Vietnam : $3.5M-$4M

Spain : $23M-$29M                    Total Asia : $354M - $407M

Sweden : $7M-$11M                                                   

Switzerland : $5.5M-$6.5M           Australia : $20M-$25M

Turkey : $4M-$4.5M                       New Zealand : $3M-$4M

Ukraine : $4M-$4.5M                     Total Oceania : $23M-$29M

United Kingdom : $65M-$70M                                        

Total Europe : $306M-$370M         China : $118M-$123M

                                                                        

Nigeria : $0.5M                                 Middle East : $6M-$8M

South Africa : $3.5-4.5M                                              

Total Africa : $4M-$5M                  Other countries : $30M-$60M

 

 

Total : $1367M (min range) - $1581M (max. range) = $1474M (med. range)

 

I made some updates with what you say, if you think I'm wrong anywhere, tell to me and I will update this again, thank you

[PKMLover]

@Jedi Jat what is your estimation after this weekend? you have the number yet?

[charlie Jatinder]

$55-56mn Approx 4th Weekend FSS. $667-669mn cume.

Edited December 15, 2019 by Jedi Jat

[charlie Jatinder]

On 12/12/2019 at 10:54 PM, edroger3 said:

India

   0,60  

   6,66  

1110,00%

India is $7.3mn till last Sunday. Disney is underreporting. Will cross $8mn today.

[PKMLover]

11 minutes ago, Jedi Jat said:

$55-56mn Approx 4th Weekend FSS. $648-650mn cume.

Last weekend OS = 584, so:

650 - 584 = 66

66 - 55 = 11

Weekdays = 11 ? @.@ 

Edited December 15, 2019 by PKMLover

[Valonqar]

Excellent numbers. Holidays are coming plus more markets to open in after holidays. Is 1 billie OS sill on table?

[LPLC]

5 minutes ago, Jedi Jat said:

$55-56mn Approx 4th Weekend FSS. $648-650mn cume.

You said $675M days ago, and a $56M week end means only $8M weekdays ... So Frozen 2 will maybe not have a billion by sunday ..

[peludo]

2 hours ago, LPLC said:

You said $675M days ago, and a $56M week end means only $8M weekdays ... So Frozen 2 will maybe not have a billion by sunday ..

It was at 351 million DOM on Friday. If he is saying 648-650 OS, you already have the billion. After that, add Sat and Sun figures DOM... You will see the billion today.

[oMeriMombatti]

Frozen II passed the $1 billion global mark this weekend.

The film grossed an estimated $55.7M internationally this weekend. International total stands at $666.0M, global total stands at $1.033B.#Frozen2 #BoxOffice @DisneyAnimation @DisneyFrozen pic.twitter.com/FsNHGzITkk

— BoxOfficeReport.com (@BORReport) December 15, 2019

[Legion Again]

Quote

International total stands at $666.0M

Now that’s what I call a good omen 😈

[Fullbuster]

I think Frozen 2 can act as a strong counter-program to Star Wars IX so it should be fine, particularly with holidays. At least in the West and Japan as SW9 is unlikely to affect it in Asia and Latin America.

[charlie Jatinder]

3 hours ago, Jedi Jat said:

$55-56mn Approx 4th Weekend FSS. $667-669mn cume.

Shit. I forget to add the Week 0 in my new sheet. My estimate are $668mn.

https://imgur.com/gallery/TpntQLn

Edited December 15, 2019 by Jedi Jat

[Steven]

 

Estimated international totals through Sunday for Frozen II include: 
China - $111.5M 
S. Korea - $85.4M
Japan - $67.3M
U.K. - $49.6M
Germany - $39.9M
France - $37.0M
Russia - $26.9M
Mexico - $23.8M
Italy - $17.3M
Spain - $17.0M 
Australia - $15.5M

[Valonqar]

1 hour ago, Fullbuster said:

I think Frozen 2 can act as a strong counter-program to Star Wars IX so it should be fine, particularly with holidays. At least in the West and Japan as SW9 is unlikely to affect it in Asia and Latin America.

agreed!

[edroger3]