THE STAR WARS THE RISE OF SKYWALKER WEEKEND THREAD | Abandon all hope, ye who enter here | 177.38 DOM, 197 OS, 373.5 WW | SALE NOW LIVE

[Lordmandeep]

This is getting hit by a double negative effect right now..

 

The Last Jedi turn off a lot of excitement for a 9th film in this franchise by either disappointing people or frankly not leaving a narrative to get people excited for Tros.

 

Also buzz around bad reviews is also spreading wildly over the internet. Jeremy jahns review got like 1.7 million views in 24 hrs.

[reddevil19]

21 minutes ago, The Horror of Lucas Films said:

Congratulations to TROS for managing to drop from the already super low TLJ's numbers in China... An achievement that I thought it was impossible to get!

While bad, it's not unexpected. SW is dead in Asia, China in particular.

Edited December 19, 2019 by reddevil19

[reddevil19]

In the words of Mr. Plinkett, enjoy your food court meal Lucas, you sweet, sweet man. 

You sold it right in time. 

[wildphantom]

It think it’s safe to say that over the next few weeks the discourse will change from how people feel about TROS to...

 

”what was Lucas’s story outline for his 7, 8 and 9 that he’d told Ford, Fisher and Hamill to get ready for”

 

it will become the new ‘release the Snyder cut’. 

[Gokira2012]

2 minutes ago, wildphantom said:

It think it’s safe to say that over the next few weeks the discourse will change from how people feel about TROS to...

 

”what was Lucas’s story outline for his 7, 8 and 9 that he’d told Ford, Fisher and Hamill to get ready for”

 

it will become the new ‘release the Snyder cut’. 

According to the leakers like the fandom menace and doomcock, who were 100% correct, Lucas did a cut of TROS

[Napoleon]

Overcoming The Last Jedi and the negative reviews is going to be a challenge, let's hope for great word of mouth.

[a2k]

TROS 190*2.9 = 550 dom seems like the bright scenario atm.

(TLJ was 220*2.82=620.2)

 

More dom heavy than TLJ gives 600 os for 1150 ww.

(Same as TLJ split would have given ~1185)

 

As early data and vibes go this might be optimistic, especially os.

 

525 dom with above split (575 os) gives 1100 ww and seems realistic.

Edited December 19, 2019 by a2k

[reddevil19]

1 minute ago, a2k said:

TROS 190*2.9 = 550 dom seems like the bright scenario atm.

 

Seems TLK is the barometer, both for OW and total domestic.

[pepsa]

7 minutes ago, a2k said:

TROS 190*2.9 = 550 dom seems like the bright scenario atm.

(TLJ was 220*2.82=620.2)

 

More dom heavy than TLJ gives 600 os for 1150 ww.

(Same as TLJ split would have given ~1185)

 

As early data and vibes go this might be optimistic, especially os.

 

525 dom with above split (575 os) gives 1100 ww and seems realistic.

The split could go closer to 50-50 or maybe even worse.

[wildphantom]

The holidays are going to save it. 
From what I’m seeing in the UK just looking at the way screenings are selling today, I see a 25-30% drop. All just pure speculation, but my gut tells me a domestic opening of $160-180 million.  I’m going $515 million total*.  Unless the casual audience adores it - but I think they’ll be all over the shop with it too. 

edit - thinking about it - sub $500 million wouldn’t be shocking to me right now. 

Edited December 19, 2019 by wildphantom

[Jayhawk the Hutt]

From what we’ve heard about George’s treatments for 7-9, they sound very in the weeds about the mechanical workings of the force. It would have been very George Lucas, for better and for worse.

[a2k]

7 minutes ago, pepsa said:

The split could go closer to 50-50 or maybe even worse.

Spinoffs already moved in that direction, RO marginally and Solo easily.

https://www.the-numbers.com/movie/Rogue-One-A-Star-Wars-Story#tab=box-office

https://www.the-numbers.com/movie/Solo-A-Star-Wars-Story#tab=box-office

 

If it gets worse than 49-51 dom-os for TROS then under Joker and TS4 ww becomes likely imo : 525 Dom with 49-51% dom-os split gives 1071 ww. 

Edited December 19, 2019 by a2k

[Gokira2012]

George Lucas should direct Power Rangers

[Eastwood47]

When should we start getting estimates for last night? 

[mikee11]

15 minutes ago, Jayhawk the Hutt said:

From what we’ve heard about George’s treatments for 7-9, they sound very in the weeds about the mechanical workings of the force. It would have been very George Lucas, for better and for worse.

I think a lot of disney friendly publications are taking what little he said about his sequel ideas out of context, to make it seem like he would make some abomination and we should be happy for getting JJ and RJ.

 

From what context there is the movies wouldn't be about force biology or osmosis jones, there would be something like those clone wars episode where Yoda meets the ghost of Qui Gon and the five priestesses. So a lot more spiritual than mechanical

Edited December 19, 2019 by mikee11

[Cmasterclay]

Thinking about 175 domestic OW, 480 final domestic total - but holidays could very well propel it over 500. They definitely need to reassess the franchise and let it breathe for a few years outside of Disney+. I'd can any planned 2022 movie and start thinking about bringing it back in five years in 2024 instead, at a minimum. People blame Last Jedi, and despite my serious love for that movie it definitely did impact things a little. But I'd argue that Rogue One and especially Solo coming out diluted the brand. Remember how special a new Star Wars movie felt? Even if TLJ was divisive, Rise of Skywalker would still feel special as the final main saga film in a franchise that keeps itself fairly sparse. But we've gotten a movie a year since 2015 plus a TV show and multiple video games, with many more things announced (no one feels this is the actual finale) - just feels less of a special event.

[Jayhawk the Hutt]

2 minutes ago, mikee11 said:

I think a lot of disney friendly publications are taking what little he said about his sequel ideas out of context, to make it seem like he would make some abomination and we should be happy for getting JJ and RJ.

 

From what context there is the movies wouldn't be about force biology or osmosis jones, there would be something like those clone wars episode where Yoda meets the ghost of Qui Gon and the five princesses. So a lot more spiritual than mechanical

Maybe. I'm sure there would have been cool stuff and I don't want to discount that George would have made something more interesting and unique with the world he would have built than what we ended up getting. But it probably would have been less focused on character, which I think the first 2 movies of the ST excelled at (and which George really let slide in the prequels).

[pepsa]

Just now, a2k said:

Spinoffs already moved in that direction, RO marginally and Solo easily.

https://www.the-numbers.com/movie/Rogue-One-A-Star-Wars-Story#tab=box-office

https://www.the-numbers.com/movie/Solo-A-Star-Wars-Story#tab=box-office

 

If it gets worse than 49-51 dom-os for TROS than under Joker and TS4 ww becomes likely imo : 525 Dom with 49-51% dom-os split gives 1071 ww. 

Thats also what I was thinking atm under 1.07B seems to be more and more likely atm (50/50 imo).

I mean we have europe declining around 20% (if all of the OS markets would to this it would get $570m OS.

That said China is doing a 12.5m yuan OD (less than 2m USD) so china drops from 42m to below 20m

 

TLJ made $86m in Asia - Japan + Russia, so we could see a + 37% drop here maybe more = $55m this is optimistic remember china alone will lose $22m so for the other markets I am just asuming a 20% drop.

Europe made $428m assuming a 20% drop = $342m

Japan + Oceania: $117.7m (drop no date points yet?)

LA:   48.8m (also no date points atm)

Other:  31.5m

So everything dropping 20% and china dropping 22m + would drop the OS total down to $556m.

If asia and LA follow suit with china the OS total could be looking a lot worse. That said europe and Japan/Oceania could do better ofc and soften the drop.

[JohnnyGossamer]

3 minutes ago, Cmasterclay said:

Thinking about 175 domestic OW, 480 final domestic total - but holidays could very well propel it over 500. They definitely need to reassess the franchise and let it breathe for a few years outside of Disney+. I'd can any planned 2022 movie and start thinking about bringing it back in five years in 2024 instead, at a minimum. People blame Last Jedi, and despite my serious love for that movie it definitely did impact things a little. But I'd argue that Rogue One and especially Solo coming out diluted the brand. Remember how special a new Star Wars movie felt? Even if TLJ was divisive, Rise of Skywalker would still feel special as the final main saga film in a franchise that keeps itself fairly sparse. But we've gotten a movie a year since 2015 plus a TV show and multiple video games, with many more things announced (no one feels this is the actual finale) - just feels less of a special event.

This.

[Jayhawk the Hutt]

4 minutes ago, Cmasterclay said:

Thinking about 175 domestic OW, 480 final domestic total - but holidays could very well propel it over 500. They definitely need to reassess the franchise and let it breathe for a few years outside of Disney+. I'd can any planned 2022 movie and start thinking about bringing it back in five years in 2024 instead, at a minimum. People blame Last Jedi, and despite my serious love for that movie it definitely did impact things a little. But I'd argue that Rogue One and especially Solo coming out diluted the brand. Remember how special a new Star Wars movie felt? Even if TLJ was divisive, Rise of Skywalker would still feel special as the final main saga film in a franchise that keeps itself fairly sparse. But we've gotten a movie a year since 2015 plus a TV show and multiple video games, with many more things announced (no one feels this is the actual finale) - just feels less of a special event.

I still think the 2022 movie will happen. They are already planning an extended break (well as extended as we get in the franchise world of today). But I concede it may end up in the weird middle ground where it's simultaneously been too long where SW has left the general public's consciousness and not long enough to get nostalgia for the franchise to build back up.