THE STAR WARS THE RISE OF SKYWALKER WEEKEND THREAD | Abandon all hope, ye who enter here | 177.38 DOM, 197 OS, 373.5 WW | SALE NOW LIVE

[pepsa]

8 minutes ago, Cmasterclay said:

It's not a xenophobic thing or anything. I just look at box office from a cultural sociology standpoint and I do not understand the cultural trends of other countries enough to comment on why certain movies gross X amount in X country. Like, I couldn't tell you why Star Wars has always been comparatively small overseas - that doesn't mean overseas gross isn't great to have, it just means I can't really analyze things. Raw numbers don't really mean anything to me without analysis.

Don't worry from you politic forum post I 100% knew you weren't xenophobic and honestly you gave a very interesting/great perspective on that the OS gross.

[XXR vs XXR]

The Eternals will win the domestic and OS crown next year. It'll be to 2020 what GOTG was to 2014, only supersized by the MCU's massive popularity growth and scale of the film. 

[Eric S'ennui]

 

[thedast]

47 minutes ago, a2k said:

If GOTG1 worked for MCU then new characters can work in a franchise as old and established as SW. It even opened with a bang in 2014 and huge number of people went to see it even before wom got around.

There's always this 'if MCU could do it sentiment' and as we have all seen countless times this decade, it's never the same thing. 

 

GOTG mostly stands on its own (the power stone could literally be any old MacGuffin) and was different enough from other MCU properties to feel fresh. Same with Black Panther, you could say T'Chaka was killed by a random terrorist and it still works. Ant-Man is a low-level goofy comedy about a thief. Thor is a god with his own realm. I don't know, the way the characters are introduced (a post-credit easter egg or glorified cameo that makes you curious) and developed feel richer (probably because their comic backgrounds give them a solid background to work with).  Yes, the first point of interest is that they're tied to a larger 'universe'. But these movies were also building towards something and it was wrapped up in a decade, moving to something else. Star Wars, the main event happened 40 years ago and they keep trying to build stories around this after the fact. This is partly why many people said they weren't itching to get a Black Widow movie after Endgame. Or any new MCU character really (the sentiment has changed a bit, but again this is served by comic background and exciting casting).

 

 SW movies are like if we kept getting movies around the events of the Snap. Star Wars spent 4 decades  and 11 movies expanding on a specific storyline. I think instead of 9 movies about that, they could have used this trilogy to go in another direction, say, let TFA introduce the new characters that are only tangientally related to the Skywalker saga, then branching out and building up to something else. At this point it kind of feels like forcing something that isn't really there.

Edited December 19, 2019 by thedast

[Krissykins]

14 minutes ago, reddevil19 said:

A DP-DP2 drop would still mean WW84 is likely to go past 350. Frozen 2 has Christmas ahead of it to pass the original. Jumanji 3 out-opened the last one, at least, despite very low expectations, so jury's still out on that...

Doesn't need to grow to still go past 350.

I didn’t mean those films won’t cross $350m. 
 

I’d be surprised if it fell as much as Jumanji will (not good). But a small increase (Frozen 2) or small drop (Deadpool 2) wouldn’t surprise me. 

[Cmasterclay]

9 minutes ago, Eric loves Rey said:

Like obviously Disney's not gonna be as big as they were this year, but their crop still looks good. I think doubting Marvel is kind of a fool's errand, so I'd be very surprised if Black Widow goes below 300M, and #InZhaoITrust for The Eternals. Mulan's getting dinged by the Hong Kong stuff, but it's still looking to be huge. Their animated stuff is so far landing in their marketing IMO. It'll at least be nice to see some original stuff land in the top 10 this year. Really, if everything goes right, I can see Soul do something like 400M.

 

Wonder Woman will be huge too. Wouldn't surprise me if it gets to like 450M or something. Top Gun 2 will get seen by every dad on the planet. It also helps that it's not like Terminator or Charlie's Angels where a bunch of crap movies or shows damaged the property. Trolls 2 should also see a decent increase (I'm telling you, kids are crazy for those little guys). The No Time to Die trailer was kinda lame, but it can probably coast on being Craig's swan song I guess. In the Heights and West Side Story should both play well with their demos and keep the musical success train going. Fast 9 and Venom 2 will drop, but should still do okay. Tenet is probably going to be in the vicinity of 200M. And I guess Sopranos nostalgia will be a thing. I'm only optimistic for Dune because my baby's in it, but I can see it come out of nowhere and surprise people.

 

Otherwise...yeah, 2020 is going to be a yuck year.

Wait....Chloe fucking Zhao is directing a Marvel movie? I'm gonna be honest, I tuned out on all the Marvel release/casting news and assumed they got a Jon Watts type to do it.

 

I think you and Jayhawk are spot on in saying that next year is going to have alot of solid hits. What is lacking are the mega hits - not just 500m, but even 400m. I'm not buying a Wonder Woman increase at all - feels both the novelty and reception will be a bit reduced.  No Time To Die just feels....underwhelming. Fast 9 is going to have a pretty huge drop domestically. I do think In the Heights and West Side Story are heading towards breakouts. Not buying Top Gun or Dune as properties that people care about yet. Tenet should do quite nicely, and my nieces lead me to agree on that Trolls 2 thing. Jungle Cruise has alot of potential - could see that being a real breakout. Pixar and Marvel movies should all do between 200 and 350. Mulan is my pick for biggest worldwide and domestically, FWIW. 

[grey ghost]

9 minutes ago, VenomXXR said:

The Eternals will win the domestic and OS crown next year. It'll be to 2020 what GOTG was to 2014, only supersized by the MCU's massive popularity growth and scale of the film. 

Though Marvel Studios sometimes makes it look easy, it's not easy to launch an unknown property into major blockbuster status.

 

Stuff like GotG is lightning in a bottle. I'm a MCU fanboy but I know they could always fumble the ball. Even with a generous lead.

 

I have a feeling phase 4 will be like phase 2. Alot of experimentation before they find their stride (like phase 3).

[grey ghost]

I doubt Soul makes 400 m but then again I was wrong about CoCo.

 

(I thought it was going to flop, lol)

[Eric S'ennui]

3 minutes ago, Cmasterclay said:

Wait....Chloe fucking Zhao is directing a Marvel movie? I'm gonna be honest, I tuned out on all the Marvel release/casting news and assumed they got a Jon Watts type to do it.

 

I think you and Jayhawk are spot on in saying that next year is going to have alot of solid hits. What is lacking are the mega hits - not just 500m, but even 400m. I'm not buying a Wonder Woman increase at all - feels both the novelty and reception will be a bit reduced.  No Time To Die just feels....underwhelming. Fast 9 is going to have a pretty huge drop domestically. I do think In the Heights and West Side Story are heading towards breakouts. Not buying Top Gun or Dune as properties that people care about yet. Tenet should do quite nicely, and my nieces lead me to agree on that Trolls 2 thing. Jungle Cruise has alot of potential - could see that being a real breakout. Pixar and Marvel movies should all do between 200 and 350. Mulan is my pick for biggest worldwide and domestically, FWIW. 

I definitely agree with you there. I made a club a while back that everything that wasn't Disney or DC (I thought Birds of Prey was gonna be big, and...well...) would do sub-250M, and I'm still sticking by that. I at least wanted some form of optimism out there going into the new year, and show people it won't be that bad.

[Lordmandeep]

I think the prequels ended on a high note compared to this though... 

 

Reaction to Revenge of the Sith was mostly positive from critics and the fan base loved all the action and lightsaber battles and the film for all its fault was quite memorable and fun (and it is still very popular due to the memes)

 

So yes the prequels were a mess but they did leave off on a high note and kept Star Wars rather popular with people who were kids and teens in the 2000s like myself. 

[Cmasterclay]

I have no idea what big name directors are doing Oscar-type movies that help define a year as much as anything (i.e. Hollywood, Irishman, etc). I know we are getting a new Wes Anderson but who else? I know that Nolan and Spielberg too but I bet both of their luck might run out with their next ones tbh.

Edited December 19, 2019 by Cmasterclay

[Jayhawk the Hutt]

Tenet could be the big breakout of the summer. The calendar works out for it so well. It's got very little demo competition before it releases and practically none after release. Should have wonderful late summer legs and it will open to 50m+ minimum if the reviews are good.

[Menor the Destroyer]

45 minutes ago, Cmasterclay said:

Maybe The Eternals, which I don't know jack shit about. Don't see it for Black Widow at all - think that does like 240m, a lil higher than Ant Man 2 type numbers. I would agree Eternals seemingly has the highest ceiling of any 2020 movie, assuming WW84 is dropping from the original.

Buzz for BW is so much higher than Ant-Man 2. Like they're not even in the same realm as far as trailer response. 

[reddevil19]

23 minutes ago, Krissykins said:

I didn’t mean those films won’t cross $350m. 
 

I’d be surprised if it fell as much as Jumanji will (not good). But a small increase (Frozen 2) or small drop (Deadpool 2) wouldn’t surprise me. 

Yeah, I know what you meant - I'm saying those examples are not necessarily supporting a theory of WW84 missing 350. The DP1 to DP2 drop wasn't terrible, F2 will have a small increase and jury's still out on the drop for Jumanji 3...

[grey ghost]

7 minutes ago, Lordmandeep said:

I think the prequels ended on a high note compared to this though... 

 

Reaction to Revenge of the Sith was mostly positive from critics and the fan base loved all the action and lightsaber battles and the film for all its fault was quite memorable and fun (and it is still very popular due to the memes)

 

So yes the prequels were a mess but they did leave off on a high note and kept Star Wars rather popular with people who were kids and teens in the 2000s like myself. 

As much as I despise Jar Jar and the prequels I can't deny that ROTS is generally remembered well.

 

The jury's still out whether time will favor TROS the same way.

 

Based on the early tweets, people say it has some great moments.

[Cmasterclay]

I haven't heard anyone talking about BW or sharing the trailer on my feeds, but I'll admit I've been going through alot and also all the political stuff so my radar might be less calibrated than usual. This is a straight up prequel, not even a psuedo prequel like CM/Wonder Woman though.

[Menor the Destroyer]

11 minutes ago, Lordmandeep said:

I think the prequels ended on a high note compared to this though... 

 

Reaction to Revenge of the Sith was mostly positive from critics and the fan base loved all the action and lightsaber battles and the film for all its fault was quite memorable and fun (and it is still very popular due to the memes)

 

So yes the prequels were a mess but they did leave off on a high note and kept Star Wars rather popular with people who were kids and teens in the 2000s like myself. 

ROTS also ended the trilogy on a high note at the box office with a big increase from AOTC and showing strong growth in OS markets. To this day it has the lowest DOM % of any SW film. 

[Lordmandeep]

The big X Factor for BW is that it will be the first MCU film in a year... 

[gadd]

11 minutes ago, Cmasterclay said:

I have no idea what big name directors are doing Oscar-type movies that help define a year as much as anything (i.e. Hollywood, Irishman, etc). I know we are getting a new Wes Anderson but who else? I know that Nolan and Spielberg too but I bet both of their luck might run out with their next ones tbh.

David Fincher has a new movie coming out called Mank starring Gary Oldman which will be distributed by Netflix. Guillermo del Toro's Nightmare Alley could potentially be ready for release this time next year (though I'm not super confident it will be). I know the following filmmakers are not always Oscar-friendly but Edgar Wright, Charlie Kaufman, Sofia Coppola and Andrew Dominik have projects in the works which should come out in 2020. It's not the most exciting year on paper in terms of blockbusters but in regards to new films from widely-acclaimed directors it's pretty stacked.

[grey ghost]

I'm lowkey worried that BW will be deemed unnecessary by the general public like SOLO was.

 

 

Edited December 19, 2019 by grey ghost