Weekday Numbers: Dec 23 - Dec 26, 2019

[titanic2187]

12 minutes ago, cdsacken said:

I've listened to let it go a million times per my child. The other songs not so much.

 

With Frozen 2 she loves Lost in the Woods (which I find hilarious), Do the next right thing, into the unknown (both versions!), Show yourself, All is found, and When am I older. Depth and variety is unparalleled.

 

Tbh, I don't feel much the phenomenon generated from Frozen 2, the storm even weaker than Speechless from Aladdin.

[a2k]

4 hours ago, 1Robert1 said:

In 2013 Hobbit did 9.3 (christmas day)and  29 (fss) if Jumanji had 12.2m on christmas day and it will have same multi as hobbit it will earn 38 mln. 

Frozen had 6.3 m and 28.5m ffs, with this multi Jumanji would have 55m ffs.

In 2013 Frozen and Hobbit earn more on 26th December than on 25th. So 116.5+12.2+13+40 will give 182m, needs 43m ffs(or better thu) to surpass 185. Is this really crazy prediction? 

 

was thinking,

129 current (116.5 + 12.5 Wed) + 12-13 + 12-13 + 12-13 + 9.5-10.5 = 174.5-178.5 (33.5-36.5 FSS)

have ended up conservative on Jumanji compared to real numbers since day 1 so higher-end of that range seems likely.

 

going optimistic,

129 current + 13-13.5 + 13-13.5 + 13-13.5 + 10.5-11 = 178.5-180.5 (36.5-38 FSS)

no one can tell how it will behave but instinct is that 180+ by sun is wishful enough.

Edited December 26, 2019 by a2k

[cdsacken]

15 minutes ago, titanic2187 said:

Tbh, I don't feel much the phenomenon generated from Frozen 2, the storm even weaker than Speechless from Aladdin.

Weird. It crushed Aladdin box office wise and the hype for Frozen 2 was way higher. I went to both opening weekend. Aladdin had no line and empty seats. Frozen 2, 100+ person line.

 

[titanic2187]

Just now, cdsacken said:

Weird. It crushed Aladdin box office wise and the hype for Frozen 2 was way higher. I went to both opening weekend. Aladdin had no line and empty seats. Frozen 2, 100+ person line.

 

Like how Jurassic world fallen kingdom did 1.3b without little phenomenon. 

[Cooper Legion]

Song impact: F1>Aladdin>F2  

movie impact: F1>F2>Aladdin    
 

F1 establishes the entire beloved franchise. F2 is a fun watch and does some fun things with characters and worldbuilding, but if it didn’t exist or was 100% different that would work fine. Frozen’s simplicity works for it, not against it. All it needs to be better than F2 (and most movies this decade) is the Elsa/Anna relationship, ice superpowers, villain twist, and feel-don’t-conceal Aesop.

Edited December 26, 2019 by Arendelle Legion

[cdsacken]

4 minutes ago, titanic2187 said:

Like how Jurassic world fallen kingdom did 1.3b without little phenomenon. 

Fallen kingdom had bad wom and bad reviews. Terrible example.

[titanic2187]

1 minute ago, cdsacken said:

Fallen kingdom had bad wom and bad reviews. Terrible example.

I guess Minion also did 1.1b with bad wom and bad reviews 

[Cooper Legion]

To the extent that there’s any discernible trend to Boxing Day gross, it seems to me to be that movies in their first week do worse, which makes intuitive sense. 27.5 seems very reasonable to me, would point to sub 90 wknd.

Edited December 26, 2019 by Arendelle Legion

[Madhuvan]

I have never seen a song hyped as much Let it Go. That song while catchy is very deep and can we used for various purposes. 

 

[a2k]

27 minutes ago, The Horror of Lucas Films said:

Jumanji looking more and more likely to reach $300m, and to think some members here expected it to go sub $200m DOM and $500m WW after the Chinese numbers came in, lmfao. 

after china i was on the '500 ww not a lock' train 

have you tracked os, how is it looking there? was a bit bummed by the 61% weekend drop but like with dom is should do very well over this weekdays and all of next week.

[cdsacken]

Just now, Madhuvan said:

I have never seen a song hyped as much Let it Go. That song while catchy is very deep and can we used for various purposes. 

 

Same. It's more catchy than anything from 2. They killed it with that song. Probably 500 million of frozen 1 came just from that.

[cdsacken]

1 minute ago, a2k said:

after china i was on the '500 ww not a lock' train 

have you tracked os, how is it looking there? was a bit bummed by the 61% weekend drop but like with dom is should do very well over this weekdays and all of next week.

So was I but by the time it came out domestically everyone was on the 250+ train. No matter the final number it's a huge hit and nice money maker.

[Yandereprime101189]

I forgot that 21 Bridges was released already and seemed to have died.

 

It's like a Denzel Washington movie without Denzel Washington. I love Chadwick, but every line he spouts in every clip, trailer and tv spot screams Denzel.

[wildphantom]

49 minutes ago, Madhuvan said:

I have never seen a song hyped as much Let it Go. That song while catchy is very deep and can we used for various purposes. 

 

It could play in every MCU BOT fanatic’s houses and they still wouldn’t hear it. 

[Nova]

@cdsacken not sure if you knew this but you can purchase the AMC black tickets online now. Or so an AMC employee just told me. You type in the code that you’re given as if it were a gift card. 

[1Robert1]

1 hour ago, a2k said:

 

was thinking,

129 current (116.5 + 12.5 Wed) + 12-13 + 12-13 + 12-13 + 9.5-10.5 = 174.5-178.5 (33.5-36.5 FSS)

have ended up conservative on Jumanji compared to real numbers since day 1 so higher-end of that range seems likely.

 

going optimistic,

129 current + 13-13.5 + 13-13.5 + 13-13.5 + 10.5-11 = 178.5-180.5 (36.5-38 FSS)

no one can tell how it will behave but instinct is that 180+ by sun is wishful enough.

Last year spider-man was 5% up, in 2013 Hobbit was 13% up, and Frozen 43%. 13m for jumanji is just 4% up, 13.5m is 8% up. I think 10% up for jumanji would be optimistic(don't forget that deadline predicted 14.5). And last year spider-man was 10% up in friday in comparison to boxing day. So flat friday and saturday isn't optimistic. 11m in sunday after 13.5m saturday would mean almost 20% decline, spiderman had 10%. So Thu closer to 14m, and 40m+ FFS is optimistic but possible scenario.

[a2k]

JW:FK lost it in the climax imo. Throughout it was a good dumb fun movie aware of itself but goes downward once it thinks it's pulling off the smarts. When Indoraptor has cornered them on the glass roof would have shown Claire point the laser gun at the T-rex (which happens to appear there in the same way as in the very beginning - amidst the backdrop of thundering sky) and force the Indoraptor to attack it, thus setting up another T-rex+Blue vs bad dino fight (deliberately repetitive but another one of these fights with a new dino in a new setting can be good), instead of the pointing it at Owen and having the Indoraptor pierce itself which was a tame end which made the supposedly smart formidable Indoraptor look like a weak dunce who couldn't handle Blue.

Edited December 26, 2019 by a2k

[1Robert1]

1 hour ago, narniadis said:

40m should be closer to reality since it shouldnt play out like an animated film. Also remember that at this point Frozen 1 was showing off the craziness that became its 400m total. 

With Jedi Jat saying 12.5m officially, it is definitely set up for a fantastic weekend. 

As for the 26th - last couple of years we have seen more flat / down than up overall but I would imagine both Jumanji and Frozen 2 go up some today. 🤷‍♂️ thats the fun for tracking this time of year

Obviously I agree with you that Frozen had crazy run, but don't forget that Frozen was up 33% on Christmas day, and J:tnl is up almost 80%. So it's also crazy run. And using Frozen multi it would mean that jumanji will have 55 mln FFS, so just like you said jumanji will no play out like an animated film, but 40 mln is possible for jumanji ffs, and with optimistic scenario even more.

[a2k]

3 minutes ago, 1Robert1 said:

Last year spider-man was 5% up, in 2013 Hobbit was 13% up, and Frozen 43%. 13m for jumanji is just 4% up, 13.5m is 8% up. I think 10% up for jumanji would be optimistic(don't forget that deadline predicted 14.5). And last year spider-man was 10% up in friday in comparison to boxing day. So flat friday and saturday isn't optimistic. 11m in sunday after 13.5m saturday would mean almost 20% decline, spiderman had 10%. So Thu closer to 14m, and 40m+ FFS is optimistic but possible scenario.

I didn't look at all the previous years as calendar config only matches 2013. felt Jum was unusually strong on Tue (-8% vs https://www.the-numbers.com/box-office-chart/daily/2013/12/24) and did not compensate on Wed. So feel Thu/Fri could end up being lighter than expectations. @TwoMisfits had suggested that there's more demand than there are showtimes for it and if it can get to low-180s by Sun but if not then that's great. Would make 300+ likely.

 

260 would have given IT1-2 and JW1-2 like drop while 285 gives NATM1-2 drop and it's on set to match the latter.

[charlie Jatinder]

Seems like TRoS $30mn.

F2 $5.75mn

J2 PS makes no sense, but if it plays like historical comps $7.5-8.5mn.