Weekday Numbers: Dec 23 - Dec 26, 2019

[narniadis]

5 minutes ago, Ryan Reynolds said:

Disney has been reporting their actual daily figures for Skywalker at $1M-$2M below what the industry has been estimating.

 

https://deadline.com/2019/12/star-wars-rise-of-skywalker-christmas-box-office-little-women-spies-in-disguise-1202816735/

 

1.) Star Wars: Rise of Skywalker (Dis) 4,406 theaters Wed $35M (+75%)/3-day: $92M (-48%)/5-day: $160M/Cume: $386.8M/Wk 2

2.) Jumanji: Next Level (Sony) 4,227 theaters Wed $12.5M (+84%)/3-day $42M (+58%)/5-day $69M/Cume: $185.4M/Wk 3

3.) Frozen 2 (Dis) 3665 theaters (-413), Wed $3.5M (+3%)/3 day: $15.5M (+19%)/5-day: $24M/Cume: $419.1M/Wk 6

4.) Knives Out (LG/MRC) 2535 theaters (-878), Wed $4.5M (+169%)/3-day $13.5M/5-day $20M/Cume: $113.4M/Wk 5

5.) Little Women (Sony) 3,308 theaters Wed. $7M/3-day $12.5M/5-day $24M/Wk 1

6.) Spies in Disguise (Fox/Dis) 3,502 theaters Wed. $5M/3-day $12M/5-day 21M/Wk 1

7.) Uncut Gems (A24) 2,341 theaters (+2336) Wed $6M /3-day $11M (+4464%)/5-day $21M/Cume $22.1M/Wk 3

8.) Cats (Uni) 3,380 theaters/Wed $2M (+85%)/3-day $6.8M (+3%)/5-day $11.5M/Cume $20.5M/Wk 2

9.) Bombshell (LG) 1480 theaters (+1476), Wed. $2.3M (+162%)/3-day $6M (+18%)/5-day $10.5M/Cume $17.8M/Wk 3

10.) Richard Jewell (WB) 2502 theaters, Wed $1.4M (+157%)/3-day $4M (+55%)/5-day $6.7M/Cume $17.3M/Wk 3

@Jedi Jat some of these numbers are whack from what you are showing, particularly Frozen 😂🤯

[a2k]

5 minutes ago, Ryan Reynolds said:

https://deadline.com/2019/12/star-wars-rise-of-skywalker-christmas-box-office-little-women-spies-in-disguise-1202816735/

 

2.) Jumanji: Next Level (Sony) 4,227 theaters Wed $12.5M (+84%)/3-day $42M (+58%)/5-day $69M/Cume: $185.4M/Wk 3

That is a bonkers projections. Would make 300 feasible. I think the Thu-Sun is being over-estimated by 5-10m

Also since @JediJat has given the number at 11.75-12, best not to get carried away by Deadline's 5-day.

[narniadis]

Yeah there are several 5 day projections that showcase Deadline as having NO idea what they are doing.... 24m for Little Women with a 7m OD?? NOT lol.

[JB33]

3 minutes ago, narniadis said:

Yeah, corrected my post - BOM shows it as 12/18 but then once you click further in it shows domestic as the 19th 🤦‍♂️

Ugh, don't you hate that? I've noticed tons of really stupid errors like that. For instance, they list Frozen's wide 3-day opening weekend as an opening weekend on the all time list, but also as a 2nd weekend on the all time best 2nd weekends list.

[ViewerAnon]

Next Christmas is going to be so boring compared to this year.

We've got a gargantuan grosser, a huge crowdpleaser sequel, an animated sequel, a WOM hit legging it out, and an A24 flick setting records for the company, all running at the same time.

 

Plus CATS. Never forget CATS. Universal's shareholders won't.

[a2k]

7 minutes ago, narniadis said:

@Jedi Jat some of these numbers are whack from what you are showing, particularly Frozen 😂🤯

Deadline Wed projection

 

5-day projection

 

[Legion Again]

Some of those deadline numbers are especially Deadline-ish. Implied -56% Thurs for KO 🤔

[John Marston]

My mom, aunt, and brother walked out of Little Women and went to see Knives Out. Lol. Their money will still

be for LW though 

Edited December 26, 2019 by John Marston

[TwoMisfits]

1 hour ago, narniadis said:

I would agree which means we are definitely in for a good next 8 days or so and definitely aiming for the 270+ area.

I'm staying with my 1st week pre-open $300M+...I might move off than number on Jan 6, but we'll see all 12 days of Xmas 1st:)...

Edited December 26, 2019 by TwoMisfits

[narniadis]

1 minute ago, TwoMisfits said:

I'm staying with my 1st week pre-open $300M+...I might move off than number on Jan 6, but we'll see all 12 days of Xmas 1st:)...

Out of likes... lol but I agree as far as the staying put on pre-open projections. My 50/250 with a 5x has been my point for a long time and steadily up a bit now on the total. We shall see wont we would love for it to break the rules and hit 300m

[Legion Again]

Going with 34 today, 31 tomorrow for 65 W+Thurs, Smaug did 19.8M for a 29M weekend, so maybe 95 weekend for 208M Mon-Sun week/385M cume.   
 

Multipliers from Dec 23-29 (bit of an unorthodox period to take a multiplier from, but it will always have Eve, Xmas, Boxing Day, and one of each weekday so seems decent enough):

Aquaman 2.37x -> 670M 

TLJ 1.84x -> 560M

RO 2.02x -> 597M

TFA 2.22x -> 639M 

BotFA 2.03x -> 599M 

DoS  2.11x -> 616M 

AUJ  2.22x-> 639M 

... F1 3.72x -> 950M

 

Personal guess atm: 205M Mon-Sun week, x1.95, 577M. 

 

[ViewerAnon]

4 minutes ago, Arendelle Legion said:

F1 3.72x -> 950M

 

LOOKS LIKE #1 OF ALL TIME IS BACK ON THE MENU BOYS

 

😛 

[narniadis]

7 minutes ago, Arendelle Legion said:

Going with 34 today, 31 tomorrow for 65 W+Thurs, Smaug did 19.8M for a 29M weekend, so maybe 95 weekend for 208M Mon-Sun week/385M cume.   
 

Multipliers from Dec 23-29 (bit of an unorthodox period to take a multiplier from, but it will always have Eve, Xmas, Boxing Day, and one of each weekday so seems decent enough):

Aquaman 2.37x -> 670M 

TLJ 1.84x -> 560M

RO 2.02x -> 597M

TFA 2.22x -> 639M 

BotFA 2.03x -> 599M 

DoS  2.11x -> 616M 

AUJ  2.22x-> 639M 

... F1 3.72x -> 950M

 

Personal guess atm: 205M Mon-Sun week, x1.95, 577M. 

 

Oddly enough once it hits 560m its comfortably under the 10% drop mark from Jedi.... weird bit of correction when you consider how steep off the OW was in comparison. Granted its still a 60m drop in total but its not "as bad" at that point.

And lest any of the crazies think I am being a positive spinner on the total, its still a drop and not a good thing.... just could have been much worse- IF IT GETS THERE.

Edited December 26, 2019 by narniadis

[BestPicturePlutoNash]

THR is saying possibly 8m for Little women

[Ryan Reynolds]

Uncut Gems has a lousy RT score by audiences, legs may not be good after this weekend 

[keysersoze123]

42 minutes ago, Arendelle Legion said:

Looks like a typo on F2 Wed from Deadline. Otherwise they’re expecting +43% Thursday.

I would just ignore DHD projections. They are all over the place. Only useful number is christmas estimates.

[MattW]

56 minutes ago, a2k said:

Dec 18 Fri, 2020

 

December 18	Coming to America 2 (Wide)	Paramount Pictures
	Dune (Wide)	Warner Bros.
	Uncharted (Wide)	Sony Pictures
	West Side Story (Wide)	20th Century Fox

 

Same weekend as TFA, so theoretically they could each do $62m that weekend (x4=248😏).

Probably more like 15-30 each.

[keysersoze123]

1 hour ago, JB33 said:

Boxing Day Thursday was really weird in 2013. Films either jumped a lot or dropped a lot. Not much stayed flat. Absolutely no rhyme or reason. I'm thinking it has to do with genre maybe....?

 

I had zero idea of what to expect tomorrow so thanks for this update.

Even I dont know. I just posted PS at tracking thread and its down quite a bit from yesterday but that should be expected as christmas day was PS heavy and it should go down from that.

[BestPicturePlutoNash]

C+ Cinemascore for Uncut Gems

 

A- for Spies in Disguise

[Blaze Heatnix]

20 minutes ago, Ryan Reynolds said:

Uncut Gems has a lousy RT score by audiences, legs may not be good after this weekend 

UNCUT GEMS (2019)