Weekday Numbers: Dec 23 - Dec 26, 2019

[a2k]

20 minutes ago, Jedi Jat said:

Seems like TRoS $30mn.

F2 $5.75mn

J2 PS makes no sense, but if it plays like historical comps $7.5-8.5mn.

TROS -6.25%

F2 +40%

JTNL -36% (using 12.5 Wed) ?

Edited December 26, 2019 by a2k

[sfran43]

 

[sfran43]

 

[misafeco]

3 minutes ago, narniadis said:

First time in its run that I am actually disappointed. Knew with the estimate last night it couldnt happen, but really wanted it to hit 400m on Christmas Day. 

Oh well, my own hopes are not the line of pass / fail thankfully 😂

F2 crossed 300M on the same day F1 crossed 100M (4th Dec). F1 collected the next 100M in 20 days, for F2 it's 22 days.

[WrathOfHan]

My takes on these numbers:

 

TROS: I really don't know where this is going to land. It should be on par if not above TLJ's 10 day total, but a harsher drop will happen next weekend as the holidays end. Also, it has bigger competition than TLJ did in January between Oscar expansions and WOM from movies like Jumanji. I'm actually fairly optimistic on its chances of getting to 550M+, but we'll see. It could completely collapse next weekend and miss 500M too.

 

Jumanji: This franchise is having another insane run. 300M will be locked if this weekend's numbers actually live up to what Christmas Day promised, and another Jumanji will inevitably be on the way. I think Sony would be wise to wait until 2022 to avoid franchise fatigue and Avatar.

 

Little Women: This falls in line with tracking. It's a great result for Greta Gerwig's first mainstream feature, and between great WOM and potential Oscar nominations, it'll live very healthily in January. 100M is still in reach.

 

Uncut Gems: Bravo! Despite the somewhat tepid audience score and C+ Cinemascore, Oscar buzz is going to carry this throughout January, especially if it overperforms in Oscar nominations. A24 films are usually immune to low Cinemascores, so I'm not concerned on legs. I'm seeing the movie in a few hours and cannot wait!

 

Spies: I was expecting more between the good reviews and tracking. The problem is there's too much demo overlap with Jumanji, and it lacks the adult appeal that has as well. It will die fast in January but can probably reach 60-70M, which isn't horrible for Blue Sky.

 

Knives Out: DAFUQ? Let me repeat, DAFUQ? This got incredibly lucky with the non-Jumanji releases on the 13th bombing. I know we're talking about 120M, but I argue it could hit 130-140M. Absolutely fucking insane.

 

Frozen 2: This is having strong staying power after the doom and gloom about it being frontloaded/not having good WOM. It might be ahead of Spies this weekend.

 

Bombshell: It's doing fine. I was hoping it could outgross Vice, but it won't have enough awards buzz to do that.

 

Cats: lol

[BestPicturePlutoNash]

2 minutes ago, sfran43 said:

 

Can Little Women really make 100m? I hope so, but I’d feel better if the 5day was closer to 30m than 25m

[Moviefanfr]

Is 600m domestic possible for TROS ?

Edited December 26, 2019 by Moviefanfr

[Damien]

Frozen is one of my favourite movies from this decade. It also tied with beauty and the beast as my favourite WDA movie. That whole sequence when Elsa Freaks out and runs aways from Arendelle followed by Let it go is incredible.

Frozen did a lot of things right, Princess superhero, catchy songs and a movie that focused on relationship between two Women that we don't get to see much in Big Blockbusters.

 

[OffTheHizzle]

2 hours ago, titanic2187 said:

Tbh, I don't feel much the phenomenon generated from Frozen 2, the storm even weaker than Speechless from Aladdin.

Disney should have promoted Show Yourself more than Into the Unknown. That's the real showstopper, and had more emotional impact, similar to Let It Go.

I wasn't all that impressed with Let It Go, until I saw it in the context of the movie. That entire scene was amazing. The same can be said for the Show Yourself sequence in Frozen 2. I understand why Disney didn't immediately post the full video on YouTube since it would be a total spoiler, but now that the movie's been released in most countries for over a month, I wish they'd just post it already!

Edited December 26, 2019 by OffTheHizzle

[Curtis1986]

Just now, BestPicturePlutoNash said:

Can Little Women really make 100m? I hope so, but I’d feel better if the 5day was closer to 30m than 25m

Only if it gets oscar nods but so far its been shut out of awards season.

[BestPicturePlutoNash]

1 minute ago, Curtis1986 said:

Only if it gets oscar nods but so far its been shut out of awards season.

It will get Oscar nods 

[Curtis1986]

1 minute ago, BestPicturePlutoNash said:

It will get Oscar nods 

We shall see because its not looking good

[BestPicturePlutoNash]

Just now, Curtis1986 said:

We shall see because its not looking good

Wrong. It made USC Scripter which nearly locks up a Screenplay nomination. WGA’s likely nom will just confirm it. So that’s already one major award.

[Jabba'sMoofmilker]

1 hour ago, Moviefanfr said:

Is 600m domestic possible for TROS ?

dont think so

Not yet anyway

[LonePirate]

7 minutes ago, WrathOfHan said:

TROS: I really don't know where this is going to land. It should be on par if not above TLJ's 10 day total, but a harsher drop will happen next weekend as the holidays end. Also, it has bigger competition than TLJ did in January between Oscar expansions and WOM from movies like Jumanji. I'm actually fairly optimistic on its chances of getting to 550M+, but we'll see. It could completely collapse next weekend and miss 500M too.

I could have sworn there were Oscar expansions and great WOM for a Jumanji movie back in January 2018.

[a2k]

		Movie	Distr	Gross	%YD	%LW	Thr	Per Thr	Total Gross	D
1	(1)	Star Wars: The Rise of Sk…	Walt Disney	$32,016,000	+59%		4,406	$7,266	$258,863,711	6
-	(2)	Jumanji: The Next Level	Sony Pictures	$12,550,000	+85%	+263%	4,227	$2,969	$129,006,805	13
-	N	Little Women	Sony Pictures	$6,425,000			3,308	$1,942	$6,425,000	1
-	N	Spies in Disguise	20th Century…	$4,836,000			3,502	$1,381	$4,836,000	1
-	(3)	Frozen II	Walt Disney	$4,125,000	+21%	+138%	3,265	$1,263	$399,177,370	34
-	(9)	Ford v. Ferrari	20th Century…	$637,000	+27%	+23%	793	$803	$103,702,296	41
-	(10)	A Beautiful Day in the Ne…	Sony Pictures	$555,000	+31%	+14%	1,014	$547	$53,923,042	34
-	N	Just Mercy	Warner Bros.	$81,072			4	$20,268	$81,072	1
-	(-)	Jojo Rabbit	Fox Searchlight	$79,000	+72%	+25%	208	$380	$20,579,323	69
-	(-)	A Hidden Life	Fox Searchlight	$70,000	+71%	+1,185%	118	$593	$477,141	13
-	(-)	Playing with Fire	Paramount Pi…	$42,000	+31%	-47%	287	$146	$43,855,832	48
-	(-)	Maleficent: Mistress of Evil	Walt Disney	$40,000	+122%	+85%	155	$258	$113,000,788	69
-	(-)	Terminator: Dark Fate	Paramount Pi…	$21,000	+163%	+15%	120	$175	$62,237,952	55

[Curtis1986]

4 minutes ago, BestPicturePlutoNash said:

Wrong. It made USC Scripter which nearly locks up a Screenplay nomination. WGA’s likely nom will just confirm it. So that’s already one major award.

The film was shut out Globs and Sag despite being seen. One little screenplay nod or acting nod is not going to change the fact that its underperforming big time in the awards race. It's looking like this years If Beals Street Could Talk.

Edited December 26, 2019 by Curtis1986

[BestPicturePlutoNash]

1 minute ago, Curtis1986 said:

The film was shut out Globs and Sag despite being seen. One little screenplay nod or acting nod is not going to change the fact that its underperforming big time in the awards race.

Incorrect. Saoirse got an Actress nomination at Globes and SAG is becoming meaningless. You obviously want it to fail and paint it as an underperformed which is patently false since it’s already had a better Christmas Day than expected and should have good WOM

[jedijake]

16 minutes ago, sfran43 said:

 

That would be a very small weekend number if true. I think they have their numbers mixed up.

 

[La Binoche]

11 minutes ago, Curtis1986 said:

Only if it gets oscar nods but so far its been shut out of awards season.

It will get nominated. Greta Gerwig has a powerful PR team that has made her the "must nominate" female director. The secret committee will make sure she's nominated for the sake of female representation. Golden Globes are European and Europe doesn't give a shit about this stuff. America doesn't either, but Americans like to pretend they do for appearances sake, so LW will be nominated.