The Marvels | November 10, 2023 | Abandon All Hope Ye Who Enter

[Arlborn]

7 hours ago, toutvabien said:

Secret Invasion actually had 461M minutes watched in its first five days vs 418M for Moon Knight, tho the episode was 10 minutes longer, so when you do the math, that's actually a few more people who watched MK. But damn, they weren't even that far apart at first. Biggest suprise is honestly that She-Hulk actually did quite well, 4B minutes is good, considering how short the episodes were.

 

6 hours ago, ZeroHour said:

If we're going to spend so much time talking about this chart, the length in minutes of each of these shows is pretty important context. @Porthos has some pretty great breakdowns of the minutes watched in the Streaming Thread including the actual length in minutes of each show (minus Ms. Marvel and What If? since they did not rank very often on the Nielsen chart). Using the length to create an estimate of number of households that watched each show from this Hollywood Reporter data, you get this ranking:

 

1) Loki (season 1) (290 minutes) - 17.9 million households

2) She-Hulk (260 minutes) - 15.4 million households

3) Wandavision (341 minutes) - 14.1 million households

4) Falcon & the Winter Soldier (310 minutes) - 13.5 million households

5) Moon Knight (287 minutes) - 12.9 million households

6) Hawkeye (282 minutes) - 12.4 million households

7) Secret Invasion (261 minutes) - 10.0 million households

8 ) What If? (314 minutes) - 6.4 million households

9) Ms. Marvel (283 minutes) - 6.4 million households

 

As you can see, that changes things up quite a bit (sorry She-Hulk haters, she's Marvel's second biggest show!) and the decline over time that the Hollywood Reporter implies looks a lot less true. But some things stay consistent. Secret Invasion represents a big drop off from previous shows and Ms. Marvel and What If appear to be pretty niche compared to the rest of the Marvel TV lineup.

 

Some caveats. This assumes everyone watched each show all the way through but the reality is that some percentage stopped at some point. It also assumes no one watched a show multiple times when there is likely also a percentage of repeat viewers. I also pulled the length for What If and Ms. Marvel directly from Disney+ since Porthos didn't have those but that will include the notoriously long credits for all of these shows, so both of those are likely being undercounted to a degree.

It's interesting to compare She-Hulk numbers with Secret Invasion numbers. She-Hulk is obviously considered a success, to the despair of a lot of haters I suppose.

 

But that's really one thing I've noticed during their runs, people talked a lot more about She-Hulk than about Secret Invasion! Speak well, speak badly, but still they talked about it and there were plenty of people defending it from the haters, loads of fans, it obviously inspired love.

 

Secret Invasion though? Just disappointment followed by indifference. I honestly think that is affecting The Marvels, they are somewhat connected by Fury after all.

 

[Gavin Feng]

Marvel has its own best superhero movie ever

Quote

The Marvels

Disney / Marvel Studios

November 10, 2023

Opening Weekend Range: $50M-$75M
Domestic Total Range: $121M-$189M

 

Quote

• The Marvel Studios brand has hit several bumps in the road of late. Despite Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3 generating strong legs last summer, its initial $118.4 million debut was seen as something of a low-end performance for a well-established and beloved sub-franchise. The franchise is, quite simply, miles away from the zeitgeist-capturing interest and enormous goodwill that for a time helped every film achieve automatic blockbuster status–like Captain Marvel did over four years ago.

 

Quote

‘The Flash’ Clocks $75 Million-Plus Box Office Launch in Early Projections

 

[ThomasNicole]

Social media is already mocking it hard because of the first tracking and the data that is 42% behind Eternals on sales 

 

I honestly hope Disney finally do something to protect the women involved in this, especially Nia

 

The way they pretend to care about progress while hardly addressing the constant attacks the minorities working for them suffers is disgusting

Edited October 12, 2023 by ThomasNicole

[SpiderByte]

I think the "Captain Marvel is never showing up again" crowd needs to remember this: from a box office standpoint, among DCs recent string of bombs, the two biggest are The Suicide Squad and Blue Beetle. They got bad box office, but better reviews.

 

They are the only ones who are surviving the reboot.

[Valencia]

Oof. That tracking. X-Men is needed badly.

Can Sam Cap 4, Blade, Thunderbolts, and just do Deadpool 3 straight into X-Men reboot even if there’s a year delay. Brand needs the break.

 

 

 

[TwoMisfits]

11 minutes ago, SpiderByte said:

I think the "Captain Marvel is never showing up again" crowd needs to remember this: from a box office standpoint, among DCs recent string of bombs, the two biggest are The Suicide Squad and Blue Beetle. They got bad box office, but better reviews.

 

They are the only ones who are surviving the reboot.

 

Well, the 1st was directed by the guy now in charge of everything DC...and had his wife with a major role in it...

And the 2nd - no one promised what role Blue Beetle will have - he could literally just be a cameo in a Booster Gold tv show.  He will be "in" the new continuity, but that can be a 1 second blink and you miss it newspaper headline...

 

I don't think either situation will be in point for the Marvels...

[Bob Train]

This is going under Black Adam WW. Put some respect on the Rock's name. He dragged a movie about a character no one cared about, in a universe no one cares about, to almost $400m WW without China.

[YM!]

59 minutes ago, Valencia said:

Oof. That tracking. X-Men is needed badly.

Can Sam Cap 4, Blade, Thunderbolts, and just do Deadpool 3 straight into X-Men reboot even if there’s a year delay. Brand needs the break.

 

 

 

Why can SamCap? If anything that seems like the safest bet of the non DP3 choices.

[HummingLemon496]

52 minutes ago, Bob Train said:

This is going under Black Adam WW. Put some respect on the Rock's name. He dragged a movie about a character no one cared about, in a universe no one cares about, to almost $400m WW without China.

According to PostTrack 44% of people came because of the Rock. I know this isn't the best metric, but him alone probably turned BA to a $200-250M grosser to a $400M grosser. Impressive, most impressive.

[SpiderByte]

Easily the funniest scenario is after the last 50 pages of wailing the movie is actually good and gets good reviews.

[Bob Train]

22 minutes ago, SpiderByte said:

Easily the funniest scenario is after the last 50 pages of wailing the movie is actually good and gets good reviews.

I think it will get good reviews, probably a fresh tomato, and similar reviews to the first.

 

But will it really be enough with presales this low? That's a different question.

[emoviefan]

1 hour ago, YM! said:

Why can SamCap? If anything that seems like the safest bet of the non DP3 choices.

They are not. The movie is finished with principle photpgraphy. They are not Batgirling it. 

[Kon]

16 minutes ago, emoviefan said:

They are not. The movie is finished with principle photpgraphy. They are not Batgirling it. 

I don't think Captain America will be canned. However, I don't know why people think this movie will be more succesful than The Marvels.

 

I haven't seen a lot of interest in Sam as Captain America.

Edited October 13, 2023 by Kon

[Speedorito]

42 minutes ago, SpiderByte said:

Easily the funniest scenario is after the last 50 pages of wailing the movie is actually good and gets good reviews.

Then we’ll be able to re-experience the “Disney bought reviews” narrative from the incels again. Fun.

[HummingLemon496]

$220 million budget. Of a $60m opening, even Wonder Woman 2017 level legs would only mean barely breaking even

Edited October 13, 2023 by HummingLemon496

[HummingLemon496]

1 hour ago, SpiderByte said:

Easily the funniest scenario is after the last 50 pages of wailing the movie is actually good and gets good reviews.

I'm thinking  Blue Beetle level reviews: "fun but generic". But I don't think it'll be enough to save face off a $50-60M tracking. People mention GOTG 3 but this is half of what that movie was tracking for. Even if it overperforms tracking, hits $70m OW and 3x legs like Vol 3 would mean ~$500m worldwide. 

 

And no I don't WANT this movie to fail. I'm just being realistic

[Porthos]

6 hours ago, SpiderByte said:

Something people forget: Marvel is not as reactionary as say DC is. When Quantumania was poorly received they didn't instantly announce that Kang Dynasty was cancelled, they just moved in to Guardians 3.

 

I....

 

Okay, the didn't cancel Kang Dynasty no.  But when AM3 did poorly, they absolutely reacted.

 

IMO massively.

 

That's when all of the talk of re-tooling the MCU started.  Relatively soon after we had news of films getting delayed and pushed back.  D+ shows got shuffled up the wazoo.

 

I was thinking about making a version of this post in the Disney proper thread, where it still probably belongs, after Jat made a comment in the Tracking thread but I'll make a version of it here.

 

When studios decide to change things, it CAN SOMETIMES TAKE A *LONG* TIME FOR CHANGES TO BE SEEN BY THE PUBLIC.

 

I remember Pablo Hidalgo of Lucasfilm fame referring to studio production being akin to an ocean liner or cargo ship or similarly large sea vessel in that it can take a long time for a ship to actually turn around and change course. 

 

Projects are in development for ages even before the rumor mill first hears about it.  That can mean a decision made in Feb 2023 isn't actually felt/noticed by the GA until years later.

 

People who are screaming for change?  Well as you yourself have noted on many occasions, they are changing things up.  The thing is, we won't know what those actual changes are for a long time when it comes to quality of movies/tv series.  Sure they might be able to make tweaks at the edges for things in the short to the medium term.  But for larger structural things?  Those sorts of things aren't gonna be known for a while.  And in the meantime films keep getting released that were (mostly) under an older structural paradigm.

 

====

 

Which brings me to a side point.

 

This is the danger of serialized storytelling.  If the public by and large likes what you're doing, you get rewarded at either the box office or the Nielsen numbers or the book sales or whatever.  If it loves what you're doing, you can get NWH or even in ultra rare cases Endgame level success.

 

But if they don't love what you're doing and either is met with indifference or hostility and you have a three/five/ten year plan?

 

Well one may not be up shit creek, but it can be a massive headache inducing experience to try to scramble out of the situation and get back to a spot where the GA likes/loves the story being told.  And even if you can scramble, while that ocean liner I mentioned is slooooooowly turning, those projects that are released in the interim while you work your way back out of the "decline phase"?  They can get punished.  And sometimes punished hard.

 

As seems to be happening with The Marvels, so far.

 

(*Porthos lands back ON TOPIC and does a TA-DA as he stands on his feet*)

((If I were actually in the Disney thread, I'd comment more on this, but I'll leave it for here for now))

Edited October 13, 2023 by Porthos

[Liiviig 1998]

1 hour ago, Porthos said:

 

I....

 

Okay, the didn't cancel Kang Dynasty no.  But when AM3 did poorly, they absolutely reacted.

 

IMO massively.

 

That's when all of the talk of re-tooling the MCU started.  Relatively soon after we had news of films getting delayed and pushed back.  D+ shows got shuffled up the wazoo.

 

I was thinking about making a version of this post in the Disney proper thread, where it still probably belongs, after Jat made a comment in the Tracking thread but I'll make a version of it here.

 

When studios decide to change things, it CAN SOMETIMES TAKE A *LONG* TIME FOR CHANGES TO BE SEEN BY THE PUBLIC.

 

I remember Pablo Hidalgo of Lucasfilm fame referring to studio production being akin to an ocean liner or cargo ship or similarly large sea vessel in that it can take a long time for a ship to actually turn around and change course. 

 

Projects are in development for ages even before the rumor mill first hears about it.  That can mean a decision made in Feb 2023 isn't actually felt/noticed by the GA until years later.

 

People who are screaming for change?  Well as you yourself have noted on many occasions, they are changing things up.  The thing is, we won't know what those actual changes are for a long time when it comes to quality of movies/tv series.  Sure they might be able to make tweaks at the edges for things in the short to the medium term.  But for larger structural things?  Those sorts of things aren't gonna be known for a while.  And in the meantime films keep getting released that were (mostly) under an older structural paradigm.

 

====

 

Which brings me to a side point.

 

This is the danger of serialized storytelling.  If the public by and large likes what you're doing, you get rewarded at either the box office or the Nielsen numbers or the book sales or whatever.  If it loves what you're doing, you can get NWH or even in ultra rare cases Endgame level success.

 

But if they don't love what you're doing and either is met with indifference or hostility and you have a three/five/ten year plan?

 

Well one may not be up shit creek, but it can be a massive headache inducing experience to try to scramble out of the situation and get back to a spot where the GA likes/loves the story being told.  And even if you can scramble, while that ocean liner I mentioned is slooooooowly turning, those projects that are released in the interim while you work your way back out of the "decline phase"?  They can get punished.  And sometimes punished hard.

 

As seems to be happening with The Marvels, so far.

 

(*Porthos lands back ON TOPIC and does a TA-DA as he stands on his feet*)

((If I were actually in the Disney thread, I'd comment more on this, but I'll leave it for here for now))

Yeah totally agree . Changes take time but overall you can definitely see Disney is making some changes in regards to PR and scheduled or planned proposed ways they are going to change things (TV)

. So I'm not on this whole "MCU is dead" phase yet.

 

Disney is definitely being reactionary and that's normal, trying to find a solution to best get out of the situation.

 

What I appreciate that iger is not sugar coating shit or trying to spin shit .He has clearly said in interviews what they are doing ain't working as they wanted it to and is diluting the brand .

 

My problem with DC and LF is that while being reactionary is that they are so indecisive and sometimes try to paint a semblance of " we have a plan and everything is fine " . Make promises to audience which they are not sure they will keep ,very sneaky with information and relevant details etc... and that just erodes audience goodwill overtime because they don't where a franchise is going and are not confident  in it at all.

 

Once again MCU is not in a place as low as DC/LF and most of their stuff is still successful enough but appreciate they are not trying to spin the wheels  or meandering when shit is not going as planned.

 

Hope they get things back on track . Guardians 3 proved audiences will come out if a movie is good .

 

IMO franchises detetoriarate or die when those in charge get in way over their head ,take things for granted and act oblivious to mistakes.  MCU was guilty of some stuff here but not to the last part which is an encouraging sign.

 

 

[Hatebox]

Friendly PSA, since a few people have said it: ‘reactionary’ isn’t interchangeable with ‘reactive’. ‘Reactionary’ has political connotations. 🙂

[DInky]

5 hours ago, Kon said:

I don't think Captain America will be canned. However, I don't know why people think this movie will be more succesful than The Marvels.

 

I haven't seen a lot of interest in Sam as Captain America.

 

Yeah, they're not canning Cap 4, it's already shot. But I too think that it won't be very successful. Marvel was stupid to split up Falcon and Bucky. They should have just made a Cap 4 with both Falcon and Bucky and maybe throw in Yelena as well. As things are, I think both Cap 4 and Thunderbolts will suffer.

Edited October 13, 2023 by DInky