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filmlover

Best Picture Predictions - 2020

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7 hours ago, lorddemaxus said:

Yeah, Da 5 Bloods even had a few critic test screenings earlier this year. I think Netflix was trying to push for a Cannes premiere (I guess they wanted Cannes to change the rules and allow Netflix films to screen there for this year) but Cannes isn't even happening at this point. Most like a Venice premiere.

 

The competition to even get into the fall festivals will be unimaginably stiff. No Cannes means the race will be much, much different than it might've been. A slot for a film that would've been at Cannes is a slot that would have gone to a generic Oscar bait like that David Copperfield film. And if a film doesn't have a distributor and is simply hoping to be a passion pick, their chances of getting in just drastically diminished. And because the race is squeezed in the fall much more than it would've been, it could be easier for some great films to be lost in the shuffle. Films were already getting lost in the shuffle without the migration of the Cannes films. And what's going to happen to the Animated Feature race if Annecy isn't there to kickstart a foreign film's trajectory? What a year...

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In a way it's sort of a good thing the most recent ceremony was held super duper early this year for once otherwise it might've been the first awards show to go the "announce the winners via press conference" route since the Golden Globes were canned because of the strike a dozen years ago (had the show been set for this upcoming weekend it definitely would've done that, if not been flat-out postponed).

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29 minutes ago, filmlover said:

In a way it's sort of a good thing the most recent ceremony was held super duper early this year for once otherwise it might've been the first awards show to go the "announce the winners via press conference" route since the Golden Globes were canned because of the strike a dozen years ago (had the show been set for this upcoming weekend it definitely would've done that, if not been flat-out postponed).

they haven't been in mid march for years so it never would've been this weekend. though if they held it the last weekend in february like usual the only real difference would've been that team parasite probably would've been stuck in south korea so i'm glad that didn't happen.

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Just now, lorddemaxus said:

The Last Duel, Amsterdam, and Nightmare Alley won't be making it into next year's Oscars I guess.

Nightmare Alley wasn't likely for this year anyway with GDT's long schedule but the other 2 being pushed is good news for Netflix.

 

this will be Netflix's year at the oscars. bring on Mank/Da 5 Bloods and Blonde. 

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6 minutes ago, RealLyre said:

Nightmare Alley wasn't likely for this year anyway with GDT's long schedule but the other 2 being pushed is good news for Netflix.

 

this will be Netflix's year at the oscars. bring on Mank/Da 5 Bloods and Blonde. 

Eh, Fox still got 3 big films coming out: Nomadland (espescially more likely if The Eternals gets delayed to next year), The French Dispatch, and Next Goal wins.

 

Edit: West Side Story too

Edited by lorddemaxus
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9 minutes ago, lorddemaxus said:

Eh, Fox still got 3 big films coming out: Nomadland (espescially more likely if The Eternals gets delayed to next year), The French Dispatch, and Next Goal wins.

Nomadland isn't gonna be a best picture contender, and Wes Anderson's style isn't everyone's cup of tea so i'm not sure how it would do above the line.  Next Goal Wins could break out big time (especially if it does well at TIFF, if that festival doesn't get cancelled ofc). but I think if COVID-19 returns bigger with a 2nd wave in the fall, streaming will be a lot stronger in the last months of the year so they'd have that advantage. 

Edited by RealLyre
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2 minutes ago, RealLyre said:

Nomadland isn't gonna be a best picture contender, and Wes Anderson's style isn't everyone's cup of tea so i'm not sure how it would do above the line.  Next Goal Wins could break out big time (especially if it does well at TIFF, if that festival doesn't get cancelled ofc). but I think if COVID-19 returns bigger with a 2nd wave in the fall, streaming will be a lot stronger in the last months of the year so they'd have that advantage. 

The French Dispatch looks a lot more like The Grand Budapest which the Academy loved htan Moonrise Kingdom which they didn't (rewatched the movie today too and easily Anderson's worst imo). 

Edited by lorddemaxus
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Best Actor Ben Affleck! But really, if the awards field is depleted, he could show up at some precursors for The Way Back. If King Richard manages to be released this year and he's good in it, I think it might be Big Willie's time. Jada dissed the Oscars when Will got snubbed for Tell Da Troof Concussion, but he probably still cares about winning and will campaign like crazy, whatever form that takes in a post-pandemic era.

 

I guess we will see how much of a Netflix bias there is with Oscar voters. I think the movie industry will be feeling the pain this year due to the dropoff in theater attendance this spring (and summer?) and the voting could be a reaction to that. Maybe they will rush to reward any well made thing that sells tickets in droves and wouldn't have had a prayer in 2019. We have had wild pendulum swings with Best Picture recently, from The Shape of Water to Green Book to Parasite and 2020's winner could fit that pattern.

Edited by BoxOfficeFangrl
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The whole movie release schedule is likely gonna see dramatic changes depending on how long this goes, but I'd bet on The Last Duel staying in this year if production resumes soon enough since Ridley can work fast (prime example being the All the Money in the World reshoots weeks before it opened).

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8 hours ago, CloneWars said:

After something like Coronavirus, I think a very light and happy film will likely win, whatever that may be.

The outcome of the election in November is sure to be a major factor as well. If Trump is vanquished, then yeah a big crowd-pleasing box office hit will be the winner.

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On 3/16/2020 at 1:33 AM, CloneWars said:

After something like Coronavirus, I think a very light and happy film will likely win, whatever that may be.

 

On 3/16/2020 at 10:13 AM, filmlover said:

The outcome of the election in November is sure to be a major factor as well. If Trump is vanquished, then yeah a big crowd-pleasing box office hit will be the winner.

in the heights

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On 3/16/2020 at 1:33 PM, CloneWars said:

After something like Coronavirus, I think a very light and happy film will likely win, whatever that may be.

2000 Tech bubble - Gladiator won

Sep11 attack - A beautiful mind won

2008 great depression - Slumdog Millionaire 

 

No clear trend of what type of film will win.....But maybe a great feel good drama will prevail. 

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