The Flash | June 16 2023 | Ezra Miller, Michael Keaton | We’re stoping the count at a Nice 69% RT (it’s 72% For Real) | Please Remember that Your Enjoyment Of The Film is Not Based On Others Opinions And To Be Nice To Each Other

[Steele131]

I get why they did it but I think WB announcing they’re rebooting the whole thing with Gunn and Safran really made fans and audiences not care or overly enthusiastic about these last few remaining old DCEU films. Like why should audiences go see these movies if they won’t matter?

[John Marston]

Ezra Miller is the main problem. Imagine if this movie starred a likable, charismatic, heartthrob type actor. Things would probably be looking a bit different 

[excel1]

17 minutes ago, Steele131 said:

I get why they did it but I think WB announcing they’re rebooting the whole thing with Gunn and Safran really made fans and audiences not care or overly enthusiastic about these last few remaining old DCEU films. Like why should audiences go see these movies if they won’t matter?

 

Yeah this is the main thing. They may well know it too hence the recent blurbs about Blue Beetle and previous comments on Aquabro.

 

12 minutes ago, John Marston said:

Ezra Miller is the main problem. Imagine if this movie starred a likable, charismatic, heartthrob type actor. Things would probably be looking a bit different 

 

Such as who? That type of lead would help any superhero film. It's why Jacob Elordi should be the next Superman.  

 

I really dont think 99% of audiences know about or give a shit about Ezra tbh.

Edited June 14, 2023 by excel1

[excel1]

Re: tracking vs walk-ups.

 

Not all CBM are the same. Not all franchise films of the same. All 3 Jurassic World films opened well above the trends that presales indicated- the avg. Jurassic World prediction on this very site was $120mish, and it opened to $207m. Avatar, Black Adam, Top Gun, Transformers, Disney remakes etc all the same. Those are all preexisting IP with built-in fanbases ala Flash. A reasonable rule of thumb may well be that Marvel films are simply their own beast with presales and should be excluded from non-marvel properties, which includes DC. 

 

Presales continue to run well ahead of Black Adam and Transformers. We know that WOM is going to be better than them. With holidays on Sunday & Monday, and a competition free second weekend, I think it will take some time to determine the final take on The Flash's domestic box office run.

Edited June 14, 2023 by excel1

[Flopped]

9 minutes ago, John Marston said:

Ezra Miller is the main problem. Imagine if this movie starred a likable, charismatic, heartthrob type actor. Things would probably be looking a bit different 

Ezra is not a bad actor. He's perfectly fine for a superhero movie. Are any Marvel actors charismatic? Those Chrises all blend together. The issue isn't his heartthrob status, it's that he is a groomer whose actions were far more heinous than Harvey Weinstein's because he targeted children. Not young adults. Not teens. CHILDREN. 

 

And this weekend millions will line his pockets making him richer and even protected from his crimes. 

[titanic2187]

Everytime when DC try to build something bigger, they failed and disappoint. Look at all the event film they had like BvS, JL, and now Flash.

 

But when DC material is on the standalone, doing own kind of thing style, they succeed beautifully. Just look at WW, Aquaman and Joker. 

 

DC probably need to come to realisation that no one, at least outside of the core target audience, care about their canon building anymore. 

[XXRDJisDoctorDoom]

3 minutes ago, excel1 said:

Re: tracking vs walk-ups.

 

Not all CBM are the same. Not all franchise films of the same. All 3 Jurassic World films opened well above the trends that presales indicated- the avg. Jurassic World prediction on this very site was $120mish, and it opened to $207m. Avatar, Black Adam, Top Gun, Transformers, Disney remakes etc all the same. Those are all preexisting IP with built-in fanbases ala Flash. A reasonable rule of thumb may well be that Marvel films are simply their own beast with presales and should be excluded from non-marvel properties, which includes DC. 

 

With seemingly great WOM, holidays on Sunday & Monday, and a competition free second weekend, I think it will take some time to determine the final take on The Flash's domestic box office run.

This is a lot of revisionist history. Yes, JW was mostly wrong by predictors but that was 8 years ago and tracking here wasn’t 5% of what it is today. By Wednesday of opening weekend for Avatar 2, TGM, ROTB, etc etc the tracking threads OW expectations were within 10% of the actuals. Flash isn’t suddenly going to change.

[excel1]

4 minutes ago, Flopped said:

Ezra is not a bad actor. He's perfectly fine for a superhero movie. Are any Marvel actors charismatic? Those Chrises all blend together. The issue isn't his heartthrob status, it's that he is a groomer whose actions were far more heinous than Harvey Weinstein's because he targeted children. Not young adults. Not teens. CHILDREN. 

 

And this weekend millions will line his pockets making him richer and even protected from his crimes. 

 

The entertainment industry is BEYOND LOADED with successful people who have done worse. Their problems are only a commercial project problem when society collectively decides they're not cool any more ala Tom Cruise in the mid 2000s. But for every one of those, you'll find a situation similar to Chris Brown beating the hell out of Rihanna in 2009 and then having a highly successful album in 2011 🙃

[excel1]

5 minutes ago, XXRkham Asylum said:

This is a lot of revisionist history. Yes, JW was mostly wrong by predictors but that was 8 years ago and tracking here wasn’t 5% of what it is today. By Wednesday of opening weekend for Avatar 2, TGM, ROTB, etc etc the tracking threads OW expectations were within 10% of the actuals. Flash isn’t suddenly going to change.

 

1) Re: there bolded - to my knowledge, there is no consensus prediction in the tracking thread, and within 10% of actuals is a fairly large range with $100m+ openers. But that's aside, because... 

 

2) That doesn't address my point at all. For non-Marvel films, which presale comps end up closer? It seem obvious that comparing non-Marvel films to non-Marvel films will bring about a more accurate reading than including marvel films in the comp. Not sure how that is arguable?

 

Flash and Indiana Jones should have presales comped against non-Marvel films, I would guess that would be much more telling.

Edited June 14, 2023 by excel1

[Cooper Legion]

Flash is more comparable to marvel films, Indiana Jones is not. This will be cold mathematical truth in two weeks.

[XXRDJisDoctorDoom]

28 minutes ago, excel1 said:

 

1) Re: there bolded - to my knowledge, there is no consensus prediction in the tracking thread, and within 10% of actuals is a fairly large range with $100m+ openers. But that's aside, because... 

 

2) That doesn't address my point at all. For non-Marvel films, which presale comps end up closer? It seem obvious that comparing non-Marvel films to non-Marvel films will bring about a more accurate reading than including marvel films in the comp. Not sure how that is arguable?

 

Flash and Indiana Jones should have presales comped against non-Marvel films, I would guess that would be much more telling.

1) An expressed consensus, no; but there’s definitely a general sentiment. If you are looking for an exact prediction, you can check out the composite of the Derby. Also, the dollar amount isn’t that relevant whether it’s a $200M opening or $20M, 10% is 10%.

 

2) Several trackers use non-Marvel comps. Here is Katniss’ comps for Flash….

 

Flash T-1 comps

 - Shang-Chi - 1.133x (9.97m)

 - Shazam 2 - 3.33x (11.34m)

 - Ghostbusters - 1.98x (8.22m)

 - F9 - 1.272x (9.03m)

 - Eternals - .812x (7.71m)

 - Black Adam - 1.215x (9.23m)

 - Morbius - 1.6x (9.13m)

[ThomasNicole]

38 minutes ago, excel1 said:

 

1) Re: there bolded - to my knowledge, there is no consensus prediction in the tracking thread, and within 10% of actuals is a fairly large range with $100m+ openers. But that's aside, because... 

 

2) That doesn't address my point at all. For non-Marvel films, which presale comps end up closer? It seem obvious that comparing non-Marvel films to non-Marvel films will bring about a more accurate reading than including marvel films in the comp. Not sure how that is arguable?

 

Flash and Indiana Jones should have presales comped against non-Marvel films, I would guess that would be much more telling.

Flash is being compared with many non MCU movies, it‘s just that even so, the sales are bad and people won’t accept it. 
 

And all the movies you mentioned from Avatar to TGM or recently Transformers, tracking thread was very close to they’re actual OW by WED of release. Why do you think Flash of all movies will be completely different? 
 

Honestly, even the last JW was being projected to 135-145M OW by tracking thread on the week of release. 
 

Nobody is ever sure how things will turn out far from release, but we’re on the verge of previews start, sales are bad and while some are expecting worse than others, is a consensus at this point the OW will be bad. I know for fans is a sad moment but nobody will lie about data to not hurt the fans.

[fmpro]

Update from Denmark. We are 12 people in the biggest screen at 6pm on OD

 

Thats…. Not good…

 

But im still pumped to see the movie

[Cmasterclay]

1 hour ago, John Marston said:

Ezra Miller is the main problem. Imagine if this movie starred a likable, charismatic, heartthrob type actor. Things would probably be looking a bit different 

I agree with this statement and believe that people here are underestimating this factor. Ezra's issues have broken through to the mainstream more than folks think. It's bad.

[Super]

1 hour ago, Steele131 said:

I get why they did it but I think WB announcing they’re rebooting the whole thing with Gunn and Safran really made fans and audiences not care or overly enthusiastic about these last few remaining old DCEU films. Like why should audiences go see these movies if they won’t matter?

The thing is I don’t think they actually did announce it, correct me if I’m wrong. I believe THR leaked a story and James Gunn addressed it saying no one knew his plans, but it was already official that Cavill (that was the mistake) was out so the rumors continued and ran rampant. So audience interest got damaged but it wasn’t necessarily because they announced it, they lost control of the narrative there. 

[excel1]

38 minutes ago, XXRkham Asylum said:

Several trackers use non-Marvel comps. Here is Katniss’ comps for Flash….

 

Flash T-1 comps

 - Shang-Chi - 1.133x (9.97m)

 - Shazam 2 - 3.33x (11.34m)

 - Ghostbusters - 1.98x (8.22m)

 - F9 - 1.272x (9.03m)

 - Eternals - .812x (7.71m)

 - Black Adam - 1.215x (9.23m)

 - Morbius - 1.6x (9.13m)

 

This is logical. Reminds of the very, VERY old days when we would spend weeks determine which films YAHOO USER RATING NUMBERS we would use for a comp. We would then spend the opening day monitoring how many Yahoo ratings came in and using it as a basis. The Pirates 2 opening was fun using this method...

[excel1]

8 minutes ago, Super said:

The thing is I don’t think they actually did announce it, correct me if I’m wrong. I believe THR leaked a story and James Gunn addressed it saying no one knew his plans, but it was already official that Cavill (that was the mistake) was out so the rumors continued and ran rampant. So audience interest got damaged but it wasn’t necessarily because they announced it, they lost control of the narrative there. 

 

They needed to announce the move on from Cavill as soon as it was final. No way they could let that linger, fan outrage would have been even more harsh.

[Cooper Legion]

12 minutes ago, excel1 said:

 

This is logical. Reminds of the very, VERY old days when we would spend weeks determine which films YAHOO USER RATING NUMBERS we would use for a comp. We would then spend the opening day monitoring how many Yahoo ratings came in and using it as a basis. The Pirates 2 opening was fun using this method...

Sounds gas tbh

[YM!]

56 minutes ago, XXRkham Asylum said:

1) An expressed consensus, no; but there’s definitely a general sentiment. If you are looking for an exact prediction, you can check out the composite of the Derby. Also, the dollar amount isn’t that relevant whether it’s a $200M opening or $20M, 10% is 10%.

 

2) Several trackers use non-Marvel comps. Here is Katniss’ comps for Flash….

 

Flash T-1 comps

 - Shang-Chi - 1.133x (9.97m)

 - Shazam 2 - 3.33x (11.34m)

 - Ghostbusters - 1.98x (8.22m)

 - F9 - 1.272x (9.03m)

 - Eternals - .812x (7.71m)

 - Black Adam - 1.215x (9.23m)

 - Morbius - 1.6x (9.13m)

Let Excel grieve. Right now he’s in either in the denial stage. 

[ChipDerby]

4 hours ago, CoolioD1 said:

It even has a dead wife.

 

I just needed to highlight this as I haven't laughed this hard in a long time.