Mufasa: The Lion King | December 20, 2024 | Barry Jenkins | Prequel to Favreau's CGI Version

[cannastop]

4 minutes ago, MysteryMovieMogul said:

but it's Audience Score is in the high 80s, while Captain Marvel's is rotten.

Captain Marvel's audience score wasn't by verified, like TLK 2019's was. Like those scores for TLK were only from people who bought tickets on fandango, whereas anyone could leave a review for Captain Marvel.

[WittyUsername]

2 minutes ago, cannastop said:

Captain Marvel's audience score wasn't by verified, like TLK 2019's was. Like those scores for TLK were only from people who bought tickets on fandango, whereas anyone could leave a review for Captain Marvel.

Yeah, the whole reason Rotten Tomatoes even has verified audience scores now is because trolls kept review bombing Captain Marvel. 

[Mojoguy]

1 hour ago, cannastop said:

That won't happen. The closest possibility is that they just shut down WDAS tbh. If they make too many movies like Strange World and Wish...

WDAS isn't going anywhere. It won't die because of a few flops. The name itself is what's important and the legacy. They have been though several dark eras and come back, the last dark era last 10 films with Lilo being the sole exception. During that time we got stuff like Chicken Little, Home on the Range, and Atlantis. Disney just needs a string of hits to be back on top.

 

Besides we all know the movies are made to prop up the parks and to sell merch.

[TwoMisfits]

6 minutes ago, MysteryMovieMogul said:

The thing is, even if there was no Mufasa, I don't see why Sonic 3 would miraculously turn into an event. Because Mufasa simply exists, suddenly Sonic 3 is going to do $200m more than Sonic 2? I just don't buy it.

 

As for Mufasa, I'm not convinced this will do over $1 Billion, but it's Audience Score is in the high 80s, while Captain Marvel's is rotten.

 

It's not that Sonic 3 will do $200M more domestic than Sonic 2.  It's that Sonic 3 will at least match Sonic 2 DOM and probably do a little more...whereas Mufasa is a huge wildcard for DOM - matching The Lion King seems really unlikely, so it's a question of how much less.  And that's where the discussion for Christmas is.

 

If your family can only afford one movie, which one will they pick?  I have gamers and now older kids, so my kids are an easy vote.  It will be interesting how the families split - boy/girl, young/old, etc.  And quality will matter for both to see the split.

 

Mufasa will be a lot of family audience with a likely decent sized young adult to older adult female base.  Sonic 3 will have a very large teen/young adult male base to help buoy its movie on top of families.  Who is coming out to movies now...and who will at Christmas?  

 

Seeing this month and last...I think the males currently have it for turnout, but anything can change by Christmas.

[cannastop]

Just now, Mojoguy said:

WDAS isn't going anywhere. It won't die because of a few flops. The name itself is what's important and the legacy. They have been though several dark eras and come back, the last dark era last 10 films with Lilo being the sole exception. During that time we got stuff like Chicken Little, Home on the Range, and Atlantis. Disney just needs a string of hits to be back on top.

 

Besides we all know the movies are made to prop up the parks and to sell merch.

I get that, it would take a lot of stuff to shut down the flagship business.

 

There will be big changes if they keep on releasing flops though.

[Mojoguy]

2 minutes ago, WittyUsername said:

Yeah, the whole reason Rotten Tomatoes even has verified audience scores now is because trolls kept review bombing Captain Marvel. 

It's always the cape films that bring out the toxic fans.

 

I remember RT stopped allowing replies to reviewers after fans were attacking anyone who said anything bad about TDKR.

[Reddroast]

2 hours ago, dudalb said:

We have a  problem ion htis site is the vast majority of posters are probably in the 16 to 25 SINGLE age group and don't get how expensive an outing to the movies can be for a family. And it the last couple of years Inflation has cut deeply into a lot of people's entertaiment budget.

Streaming has changed the whole dynamics of the film industry in a way not seen since the advent of Television in the l late 40's and early 50's , where it cut movie attendence by 40%,

As for this specific movie, I think how it is received will be important. If it comes off like a weak sequel.prequel to a classic, it will not do nearly as well as some people there think.

When I was a kid  ( a part of a family of 6 people.) going to the movies was expensive. 

Im terrified of what the price would be today 

[cannastop]

 

[MysteryMovieMogul]

37 minutes ago, cannastop said:

Captain Marvel's audience score wasn't by verified, like TLK 2019's was. Like those scores for TLK were only from people who bought tickets on fandango, whereas anyone could leave a review for Captain Marvel.

The "all audiences" score for TLK is still above 80%, unless I'm still misunderstanding what Rotten Tomatoes did...?

[cannastop]

11 minutes ago, MysteryMovieMogul said:

The "all audiences" score for TLK is still above 80%, unless I'm still misunderstanding what Rotten Tomatoes did...?

the bigger point is that Captain Marvel's score isn't from verified viewers. Though I am a bit confused why you brought it up

Edited May 1 by cannastop

[MysteryMovieMogul]

9 minutes ago, cannastop said:

the bigger point is that Captain Marvel's score isn't from verified viewers. Though I am a bit confused why you brought it up

Because I saw Mufasa compared to The Marvels as both are sequels to $1b+ performers, although maybe that was on a subreddit and not here.

[HummingLemon496]

On 4/29/2024 at 1:30 PM, Minnale101 said:

I’m very confused at people thinking this looks worse than 2019 movie? 
 

People complained 2019 movie was too hyper realistic, they fixed that to extent here 

 

this looks a lot better visually and lively 

I support Mufasa, and this is kinda hard to explain but my personal issue is that sometimes it looks super video-gamey, like it's trying to be photorealistic and animated at the same time. 

Edited May 1 by HummingLemon496

[John Marston]

1 hour ago, cannastop said:

Captain Marvel's audience score wasn't by verified, like TLK 2019's was. Like those scores for TLK were only from people who bought tickets on fandango, whereas anyone could leave a review for Captain Marvel.

 

yet The Marvels ended up having a 90% drop from its predecessor.

 

 

Lion King is a bigger brand than stuff like Captain Marvel or Alice in Wonderland though. It won't do as bad as those, 500-600M I will say. 

[MysteryMovieMogul]

23 minutes ago, John Marston said:

 

yet The Marvels ended up having a 90% drop from its predecessor.

 

 

Lion King is a bigger brand than stuff like Captain Marvel or Alice in Wonderland though. It won't do as bad as those, 500-600M I will say. 

I mean, I think folks also forget that Captain Marvel's trailers didn't give any of the story away. Hell, they didn't even give me a sense of the tone the film was going for. They were confused. One ad for the movie showed Nick Fury saying "Black Girl Magic" which worked in the film itself, but in a trailer it looked like pandering and made the film much easier for the wrong people to mock. But because the trailers were bad, there was nothing to counter the bad faith critics with.

[Liiviig 1998]

Sonic is no where  near as big as the lion king IP.

 

But once again what is actually big and popular and sold those tickets and became one of the most lucrative  Broadway productions . It's the  1994 classic . All the popularity,love and success is heavily tied to the 1994 animation.  Why do live actions remakes make mainly so much money . It's because the original beloved movies audiences wanted to relive those nostalgia  moments  ,songs ,characters TLK 2019 benefited just like the rest of the popular live action remakes. It wouldn't make 1.6B WW if it weren't for the popularity the original.

 

Mufasa is not this..

 

It's more like what  lightyear was the toy story IP. Both are prequels to beloved character.

 

Sonic 2 made more than lightyear . Does that make it more  popular than Tory story IP. No.

 

Some having sonic 3 over mufasa doesn't really mean we think  it's  bigger than TLK IP.

 

For sonic 3 I think domestic it has a decent  chance. WW mufasa has the upper hand due to OS where sonic is not popular.

 

Sonic 2 had 72m ow . Yeah it's frontloaded but now it has the advantage of Christmas holidays . Shadow character is pretty popular in the fanbase which has already shown they can come out and give some good OW numbers. 72m is not a slouch.

 

Sonic 2 had  about 20% jump domestically from sonic but that was suppressed by covid . So make assumption 15% jump .

Applying the same ratio from 2 would give us roughly 215-220 Dom for sonic 3 and that my assumption if it's in casual spring release date . Now add potential festive period  boost than can easily turn to 250-300m depending on Wom and hype. And the movies are sort of critic proof

 

Aquaman legged to 450m With meh wom . Sonic 3 which would have been 475-500m+  movie in it's traditional window. Christmas can add 100-150M+ to it's gross if it delivers with a very strong domestic domestic skew.

 

OW - thinks sonic 3 could  win. Over Avatars 77m weekend possible. Franchise has enough pull for such an opening but it will depend on what mufasa does.

 

Dom - depends on legs. If mufasa has good WOM .it will definetely leg out  more and take the crown. 

 

WW - barring bad WOM still think mufasa will edge due to OS advantage.

 

Sonic 3

75-90m ow/250-325/575-650

 

Mufasa 

60m -85m ow/275-375/650-925

 

If none moves . This could really be a strong weekend if all goes well.

 

 

 

 

Edited May 1 by Liiviig 1998

[filmscholar]

Sonic 1 did 317 (During the Pandemic)

Sonic 2 did 405 (Post Pandemic)

 

= 722 Million WW

 

 

Lion King 94 (Did over 900 WW, now over 1 Billion with Re-releases)

Lion King 2019 (Did 1.6 Billion WW 25 years after the original)

 

= 2.7 Billion WW

 

 

When the "The Lion King" drops, it's 2-0 at being a Box Office Juggernaut, why does that change now? I think "Sonic 3" will increase slightly but not that much.  I think they should get a weekend to themselves instead of trying to fight "The Lion King".  The "Aquaman", "Alice and Wonderland" and "Marvels" Comparison don't really work.   "The Lion King" is just a bigger brand overall.  "Aquaman" did have December but wasn't able to capitalized like "The Lion King" will.  "Marvels" just didn't really move the needle this time around.   

 

"Alice through the Looking Glass" came as Johnny star was falling.   With "Mufasa" you have a family film in the heart of the Holiday and New Years.   "Aquaman" and "The Marvels" mostly marketed to teens and young adults.  "Alice 2" did drop in May so it was a head scratcher why it still didn't do well.   I'm sorry but this is a lock for a Billion.   I think OS will clear 500 Million with ease (The last one did 1.1 Billion OS).  The question is domestic and with Christmas and New Years, 400 is definitely on the table.  "Oppenhemier" did 950 WW, The Lion King will clear that.  Not to mention Beyonce and her Daughter and the press that will bring.  I'm sure she will do Music for the soundtrack too.  

Edited May 1 by filmscholar

[Liiviig 1998]

7 minutes ago, filmscholar said:

Sonic 1 did 317 (During the Pandemic)

Sonic 2 did 405 (Post Pandemic)

 

= 722 Million WW

 

 

Lion King 94 (Did over 900 WW, now over 1 Billion with Re-releases)

Lion King 2019 (Did 1.6 Billion WW 25 years after the original)

 

= 2.7 Billion WW

 

 

When the "The Lion King" drops, it's 2-0 at being a Box Office Juggernaut, why does that change now? I think "Sonic 3" will increase slightly but not that much.  I think they should get a weekend to themselves instead of trying to fight "The Lion King".  The "Aquaman", "Alice and Wonderland" and "Marvels" Comparison don't really work.   "The Lion King" is just a bigger brand overall.  "Aquaman" did have December but wasn't able to capitalized like "The Lion King" will.  "Marvels" just didn't really move the needle this time around.   

 

"Alice through the Looking Glass" came as Johnny star was falling.   With "Mufasa" you have a family film in the heart of the Holiday and New Years.   "Aquaman" and "The Marvels" mostly marketed to teens and young adults.  "Alice 2" did drop in May so it was a head scratcher why it still didn't do well.   I'm sorry but this is a lock for a Billion.   I think OS will clear 500 Million with ease (The last one did 1.1 Billion OS).  The question is domestic and with Christmas and New Years, 400 is definitely on the table.  "Oppenhemier" did 950 WW, The Lion King will clear that.  Not to mention Beyonce and her Daughter and the press that will bring.  I'm sure she will do Music for the soundtrack too.  

Yeah we were counting those rosy stastics for toy story too when lightyear was around and that was dead  on arrival .

Marvels dead on arrival.

Know  I t's still long way out and family movies tend to have surges close to opening . But trailer buzz for this was non existent  . Even KP4 which had weak presales for long still had stronger trailer  reception than this.

 

Will also check lightyear ,think it was also higher . 

 

Oppy was literally barbenhienmer craze.

 

Putting it in Christmas is the best thing they have done , even with meh reception ,this period will minimize the impact or  amplify numbers   it if it's good.

 

Summer it would have been overshadowed by DM4 ,IO2, Deadpool. 

 

Nothing is a slamdunk this days. Audiences have become very  event movie driven .

 

 

 

 

 

[poweranimals]

8 hours ago, MysteryMovieMogul said:

Because I saw Mufasa compared to The Marvels as both are sequels to $1b+ performers, although maybe that was on a subreddit and not here.

Most people aren't going to bother review bombing if their efforts aren't going to be seen. The verified audience score is what people look at. How many people even know that the "all audience" score is a thing?

Edited May 1 by poweranimals

[filmscholar]

3 hours ago, Liiviig 1998 said:

Yeah we were counting those rosy stastics for toy story too when lightyear was around and that was dead  on arrival .

Marvels dead on arrival.

Know  I t's still long way out and family movies tend to have surges close to opening . But trailer buzz for this was non existent  . Even KP4 which had weak presales for long still had stronger trailer  reception than this.

 

Will also check lightyear ,think it was also higher . 

 

Oppy was literally barbenhienmer craze.

 

Putting it in Christmas is the best thing they have done , even with meh reception ,this period will minimize the impact or  amplify numbers   it if it's good.

 

Summer it would have been overshadowed by DM4 ,IO2, Deadpool. 

 

Nothing is a slamdunk this days. Audiences have become very  event movie driven .

 

 

 

 

 

 

This isn't a "Lightyear" Situation because the marketing campaign for that was a little confusing on if it was Toy story or not.  There is no confusion that this is The Lion King.  Plus there was already a Buzz Lightyear animated series so doing a prequel spinoff with Woody as Andy's earliest Toy was probably a better idea but that's just me.  Plus there was a negative campaign against it.  I just don't see "Lion King" having that type of backlash.   It's just a Family Friendly blockbuster with animals.  These new CGI-Photo realistic versions are what the kids like nowadays.  Since Toy Story blew up sadly at lot of the Old School Animation started getting phased out (Except in Japan with Anime).  It's mostly been computer animation that kids have grew up on.

 

My generation grew up on the hand drawn Animated version.  So we will bring our kids to watch it just like the first one. There were so many Parents that showed their kids the animated one, they took them to see the computer one.  I agree with you that audiences Post-Pandemic are different which is why I never said it would do 1.6 Billion like 2019.  But A Billion is doable.   I only brought up "Oppenhimer" because OS numbers re something I could see "Mufasa" Doing.   Sonic 2 increased Post-Pandemic.   You are right, The Summer is really crowded so who knows what it could have done in June or July.   But Dec 20 is a strong date, Christmas on Wednesday, New Years on Wednesday.   That 3 Weekends to clean up.  I didn't know what this could be but once I saw the trailer, it clicked.  Mufasa is a great character in this series.   

[MightyDargon]

It's an easy 230 mil US/650 mil WW given the value of the IP, but I'm iffy on more than that given the level of competition. I've seen plenty of sequels decline rapidly from their precursors as of late.