Lightyear | 6/17/22 | Disney/Pixar | PUPPY INTERVIEW FRIDAY SO NO REASON TO SEE MOVIE NOW. FLOP INCOMING

[AniNate]

The Solo comparison does make sense. Quasi spinoff origin story with a new actor. It doesn't really matter if "nobody asked for" a movie if it has an interesting enough story to make people want to see it but the marketing (and evidently the production in general) was based entirely on the assumption people would see any movie starring Buzz Lightyear 

 

Edited June 18, 2022 by AniNate

[El Squibbonator]

I'm kind of struggling to find a good comparison among existing Disney and Pixar movies to Lightyear's performance. The best ones I can think of at the moment are Brave and Cars 2.

Brave and Cars 2 were both Pixar movies that suffered from poor word of mouth and a general perception that they were lesser efforts from the studio. They both earned around $25 million in their respective first days, while Lightyear has earned $21 million in the same amount of time. Both Brave and Cars 2, moreover, opened at around $66-68 million. A comparable opening for Lightyear would then give us an opening of about $56 million.

Other Pixar movies have had similar openings, but they were kept afloat by strong overseas grosses (Coco, Ratatouille), or good reception. Lightyear doesn't have either of those factors working in its favor. Taking the Brave/Cars 2 comparison further, we might be looking at a domestic gross of around $180 million for Lightyear.

The overseas gross is harder to predict, but it'll probably be quite a bit less than what Brave made, especially considering the lack of a Chinese release. In the absence of any proper data, and in the interest of speculating (Oh my god! An unsupported guess! The horror!), I took the liberty of hypothesizing it'll be about 75% of Brave's overseas gross, using the probable domestic opening as a rough guide. If that's the case, Lightyear's final worldwide gross might be more than $400 million.

But not a whole lot more.

Edited June 18, 2022 by El Squibbonator

[Menor the Destroyer]

6 minutes ago, AniNate said:

The Solo comparison does make sense. Quasi spinoff origin story with a new actor. It doesn't really matter if "nobody asked for" a movie if it has an interesting enough story to make people want to see it but the marketing (and evidently the production in general) was based entirely on the assumption people would see any movie starring Buzz Lightyear 

 

Yeah, this is what I mean. It's incomplete to say "nobody asked for" a movie. What that really means is that the movie wasn't interesting enough as presented to audiences, regardless of whether it was "asked for" beforehand. 

[El Squibbonator]

Speaking of which, Solo came within a hair's breadth of $400 million worldwide. If Lightyear performs similarly, it might at the very least double its budget. 

[TheDude391]

The marketing also had this really serious self important quality to it which looked boring to me and I'm sure to kids as well. Why is a Buzz Lightyear movie going for an Interstellar/Ad Astra/First Man vibe? If this leaned more into a Star Wars/Flash Gordon type fun poppy sci fi action film, probably would've done better.

Edited June 18, 2022 by TheDude391

[WittyUsername]

The problem with this movie from the get-go was that a Buzz Lightyear “film within a film” always seemed like it was scraping at the bottom of the barrel, and as others have said, kids probably didn’t find the marketing all that appealing. It doesn’t have the bright colors or the whimsical premise you’d usually associate with Disney and Pixar. 
 

Of course, since right-wing hacks like Ted Cruz and Ben Shapiro decided to bitch about this movie for reminding them that gay people exist, a bunch of homophobic idiots are going to insist the movie flopped because it’s “woke.” 

Edited June 18, 2022 by WittyUsername

[ListenHunnyUrOver]

On 5/18/2022 at 1:55 AM, ListenHunnyUrOver said:

Is it though? I’m not sure if I have as much faith in this as everyone else seems to. A Toy Story movie this is not. I also believe the Pixar brand is sort of tarnished after the last few movies were dumped on Disney+ tbh. I just don’t think this will have the kind of appeal to kids as an ordinary Toy Story movie. Of course Lightyear will be big, but I don’t know if I think it underperforming expectations a bit would surprise me.

Maybe I spilled a bit. 

[Cappoedameron]

A human man portraying the animated man in the movie about the backstory of an animated toy in a movie. Inception was real.

[ListenHunnyUrOver]

5 minutes ago, Cappoedameron said:

A human man portraying the animated man in the movie about the backstory of an animated toy in a movie. Inception was real.

This whole project was poorly conceived. No one wants a realistic Buzz movie. I can’t believe the lengths Disney will go to milk these franchises. 

[TomCruiseTop]

1 hour ago, ListenHunnyUrOver said:

This whole project was poorly conceived. No one wants a realistic Buzz movie. I can’t believe the lengths Disney will go to milk these franchises. 

I don't think we've seen the bottom of the barrel yet either.

[PNF2187]

Just got out of this one. Legitimately really enjoyed the first part of this one, but it's a shame the rest of the movie doesn't come anywhere close and didn't particularly excite me save for one all too brief moment near the end. For the lack of a better term, most of the movie felt like it was on autopilot. I didn't end up caring for a lot of the reveals. Definitely the weakest of the 2020s Pixar movies so far.

 

That being said, Sox is precious and needs to be protected at all costs.

Edited June 20, 2022 by PNF2187

[SoSaysI]

I really enjoyed this movie.  But not quite sure what they were thinking here from a financial standpoint.  Other than Socks there just isn’t anything here that would appeal to kids.  Having a kids sci fi movie that is focused on time dilation and that isn’t really a fun action story?  Tough sell 

[filmlover]

On 6/18/2022 at 4:47 PM, Cappoedameron said:

A human man portraying the animated man in the movie about the backstory of an animated toy in a movie. Inception was real.

That doesn't even look anything like Icon Evans! @Cap disapproves

 

The best thing we'll probably get out of this movie is this special themed ice cream that they're currently serving at Disney Springs until the end of the month. I wanna travel up there right now and taste it! It looks delicious.

 

[MOVIEGUY]

On 6/18/2022 at 1:47 PM, Cappoedameron said:

A human man portraying the animated man in the movie about the backstory of an animated toy in a movie. Inception was real.

 

Making an observation = "screaming" now

[Cap]

2 hours ago, filmlover said:

That doesn't even look anything like Icon Evans! @Cap disapproves

 

The Costume isn't even right!  What is that ugly ass gray.  Where is the green one!

 

 

2 hours ago, filmlover said:

 

The best thing we'll probably get out of this movie is

 

 

 

As everyone lost their mind over the past 92 hours, I have been quietly sitting here watching this video about 50 times.  It's just so comforting.  Like I can just feel the stress and rage leaving my body... It's just sooooo fluffy. 

 

[AniNate]

Maybe the movie might've fared better as 90 minutes of Buzz playing with Sox

[Cap]

2 minutes ago, AniNate said:

Maybe the movie might've fared better as 90 minutes of Buzz playing with Sox

 

It absolutely would have.  

[filmlover]

Sox was definitely MVP. Since this won't be getting a sequel I would very much welcome a D+ series centered around him.

[El Squibbonator]

On 6/18/2022 at 3:44 PM, WittyUsername said:

Of course, since right-wing hacks like Ted Cruz and Ben Shapiro decided to bitch about this movie for reminding them that gay people exist, a bunch of homophobic idiots are going to insist the movie flopped because it’s “woke.” 

And I'm really, legitimately, afraid Disney is going to listen to those people and dial back any LGBTQ inclusion in their future movies. 

[AniNate]

They do this all the time, it's really just background noise at this point.