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Oppenheimer | 2024 Academy Award Winner for Best Picture and Best Director

By MrPink, in Box Office Discussion

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keysersoze123 Global Phenomenon

keysersoze123

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32 minutes ago, reddevil19 said:

I just hope that if this ends up in the 35-45 range for opening weekend, we don't see a pivot on the conversation with it considered a failure because of these 50-60 million posts. It's selling well especially in IMAX, but given the director that's to be expected. Will it break out broader especially with walk-ups? That's the question  if it doesn't and opens in the 40 range, it's still a big success (though the final judgement will be dependent on legs)...

its selling well beyond Imax as well. its doing fantastic in 70mm shows as well. its daily pace is better than what Indy had as well. So I definitely think 50m+ is in play. Its sales not just thursday but good for whole weekend. Lincoln Sq imax has sold great into its 2nd weekend !!!

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MrPink Global Phenomenon

MrPink

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1 hour ago, emoviefan said:

Christppher Nolan is my favorite active working director and I am really looking forward to this but these tickets sales are kind of shocking to me. Its a 3 hour R rated talkie movie about the atomic bomb. This opening higher than a pre pandemic movie like Once Upon a Time in Hollywood would be crazy.

 

I think what people underestimate is Nolan's name doesn't just draw audiences, it affords movies (and in this case, a drama) things that they could not get otherwise. IMAX screens, a 100m marketing budget, trailers a whole year in advance, and numerous Twitter posts about the making of the film that tend to spread. In this case, it's also been partially helped out by the vicinity of Barbie.

 

But this is why I've been feeling pretty good about it opening to 40m+. The premium screens and eyeballs it can draw through marketing can compensate for the the 3hr drama aspect. And even then, I don't think that people are necessarily against dramas. Plenty of people still like them. But what they want, is a reason to specifically see it in theaters as opposed to home. And they often face awareness issues, where people don't even realize the drama in question even exist.  Nolan has wisely trained a lot of audiences to go see his movies in theaters, specifically IMAX, and basically draws way more awareness for a drama than pretty much any other film could dream of, erasing a lot of these problems.

 

Don't want to get too ahead of myself here, but seeing how presales have started so far makes me feel like my initial thought is on the right track. I don't know if this can out-open Dunkirk but it does seem like the fanbase is still motivated so far despite any potential hiccups from Tenet.

Edited by MrPink
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Borobudur Box Office Gold

Borobudur

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25 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

its selling well beyond Imax as well. its doing fantastic in 70mm shows as well. its daily pace is better than what Indy had as well. So I definitely think 50m+ is in play. Its sales not just thursday but good for whole weekend. Lincoln Sq imax has sold great into its 2nd weekend !!!

Will it suffer the sudden slow down like Avatar 2 in the last week of presale? 

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keysersoze123 Global Phenomenon

keysersoze123

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16 minutes ago, Borobudur said:

Will it suffer the sudden slow down like Avatar 2 in the last week of presale? 

it still will have very good OW even with final week slow down. if it explodes final week we are looking at Kray OW. I doubt that happens as its release wont be as wide as blockbusters. That said I am expecting great legs(4x). So this movie is not just about OW. 

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reddevil19 Box Office Gold

reddevil19

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6 hours ago, keysersoze123 said:

its selling well beyond Imax as well. its doing fantastic in 70mm shows as well. its daily pace is better than what Indy had as well. So I definitely think 50m+ is in play. Its sales not just thursday but good for whole weekend. Lincoln Sq imax has sold great into its 2nd weekend !!!

I mean, sure, but 70mm is even rarer than IMAX. I just used IMAX as a catch-all for the premium formats driving interest right now. That was to be expected and it will probably play like Avatar in that respect, with a long life in premium and people booking way past the weekend for those screens. The question is, as more standard screenings get added, and premium availability is low, will people book standard to high levels as well, will they wait for more premium down the line or just skip altogether if that doesn't work out? 

 

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MrPink Global Phenomenon

MrPink

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I think Universal has done a really good job of handling Oppenheimer so far. It hasn't lacked in marketing and promotion. I do suspect at some point down the line he'll at least do a movie with WB but I think he'll continue working with Universal until it's no longer convenient. We see that in terms of how he's operated with his crew, he's comfortable working with Jennifer Lame and Ludwig Goransson despite working with Lee Smith/Zimmer previously. 

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TMP Global Phenomenon

TMP

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5 minutes ago, Maggie said:

Why did they schedule Barbie on the same day as Oppenheimer if they are so enamored with Nolan and want him back? That move seems shady, to say the least...

What’s gonna happen when the barbie/oppenheimer double feature takes off and oppenheimer opens even bigger than it would have on its own lol

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The Dark Alfred Summer Tentpole

The Dark Alfred

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I'm sorry but questiong the opening startegy of Barbie vs Op stuff is becoming boring, uneducated and downright primitive. Studios used to release big tentpoles on the same day all the time. This is nothing new. Especially that we are talking about two completely different demos. They are perfectly fine opening on the market the same time. Just a reminder that Mamma Mia (also Universal) opened the same day as The Dark Knight and both films went on a terrific run. It's obvious that MI: DR is a bigger problem for Op than Barbie.

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excel1 Blockbuster

excel1

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Nolan is no about already his own brand, especially overseas. If a studio ever gets him to do preexisting IP, look out. 

 

STAR WARS by Christopher Nolan  🤩 

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MrPink Global Phenomenon

MrPink

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2 minutes ago, Maggie said:

i think Nolan's  done it again. TWO 5 stars reviews on Letterboxd were just added. It had a screening last night

 

I don't see anything? How can you tell.

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