⊃∪∩⪽ Part II | March 1, 2024 | Reactions drop February 15, reviews February 21 | Zendaya for our next C-3P0

[Last Man Standing]

26 minutes ago, Valonqar said:

 

She's only creepy because she's an adult mind in a child's body but otherwise she was very sad that everyone was scared of her. Most tragic character in Atreides saga later on (Children of Dune). 😢

There are other reasons she's creepy, but those go into spoiler territory.

[M37]

2 hours ago, Eric Creed said:

I trust M37 with my life

[Cmasterclay]

I predicted 70m/200m in my pre-year predictions and sticking with that. By the way, I think that would be outstanding! That's nearly double Dune 1 despite less pent up hype from years of waiting. Obviously COVID factors in there, but this franchise is a fairly hard sci-fi for white people that is more niche than the internet would have you believe. I'd find 200m outstandingly good.

[SaltyPistola]

The appetite is there for quality, adult-oriented spectacle and the slate is absolutely desolate. I think this is going to do gangbusters. I reckon 750 WW

Edited February 6 by SaltyPistola

[BadOlCatSylvester]

A Sonic 2-like growth moreso than a Dark Knight-level breakout sounds about right. A part of me still feels it'll pull a Dead Reckoning and dissapoint everyone here. We'll see what happens.

[ThomasNicole]

3 minutes ago, BadOlCatSylvester said:

A Sonic 2-like growth moreso than a Dark Knight-level breakout sounds about right. A part of me still feels it'll pull a Dead Reckoning and dissapoint everyone here. We'll see what happens.

Most people seems to be expecting reasonable numbers to be fair, 600-ish

 

Hard to pull a Dead Reckoning situation out of this without getting very similar results to Part I which is highly unlikely given the way better presales 

[HummingLemon496]

July 2022 when people thought Dead Reckoning was a lock for a billion just because of Top Gun: Maverick even though that wasn't even in the same franchise

[AMC Theaters Enjoyer]

Ten days also feels like an appropriate drop point for reviews with pre sales. Not too early, not too late.

[emoviefan]

12 minutes ago, BadOlCatSylvester said:

A Sonic 2-like growth moreso than a Dark Knight-level breakout sounds about right. A part of me still feels it'll pull a Dead Reckoning and dissapoint everyone here. We'll see what happens.

Unless Kung Fu Panda 4 and Imaginary pull a Barbenheimer on March 8th aka Pandaginary don't see that

[SaltyPistola]

13 minutes ago, BadOlCatSylvester said:

A Sonic 2-like growth moreso than a Dark Knight-level breakout sounds about right. A part of me still feels it'll pull a Dead Reckoning and dissapoint everyone here. We'll see what happens.

With the slate surrounding it that doesn't seem likely to me, Dead Reckoning's biggest hurdle was Barbenheimer. It needed those premium screens. 

[lorddemaxus]

1 hour ago, HummingLemon496 said:

July 2022 when people thought Dead Reckoning was a lock for a billion just because of Top Gun: Maverick even though that wasn't even in the same franchise

Yeah well no one was predicting that in June 2023 though.

[keysersoze123]

2 hours ago, Cmasterclay said:

I predicted 70m/200m in my pre-year predictions and sticking with that. By the way, I think that would be outstanding! That's nearly double Dune 1 despite less pent up hype from years of waiting. Obviously COVID factors in there, but this franchise is a fairly hard sci-fi for white people that is more niche than the internet would have you believe. I'd find 200m outstandingly good.

 

Dune 1 released Oct 2021. This is among the quickest sequels, considering the time period and what has happened in that time. 

[Speedorito]

37 minutes ago, lorddemaxus said:

Yeah well no one was predicting that in June 2023 though.

There were a lot high predictions around that time, especially after Dial of Destiny basically took itself out of the equation at the end of June.

[Noctis]

6 hours ago, Cmasterclay said:

I predicted 70m/200m in my pre-year predictions and sticking with that. By the way, I think that would be outstanding! That's nearly double Dune 1 despite less pent up hype from years of waiting. Obviously COVID factors in there, but this franchise is a fairly hard sci-fi for white people that is more niche than the internet would have you believe. I'd find 200m outstandingly good.

 

I don't get this? 

[Valonqar]

13 hours ago, WittyUsername said:

Isn’t she 2-4 years old in the first book? A literal toddler who talks and behaves like a grown adult would definitely approach uncanny valley territory, so they might as well embrace the weirdness of it. 

 

she is 2. I mean it is weird but the character isn't weird and creepy physically. she's a cute well meaning kid who freaks everyone out for being mentally mature.

[M37]

3 hours ago, Noctis said:

I don't get this? 

I don't think its wrong to say Dune is a sci-fi epic, a large scale visual but slower-paced story of politics and relationships. Its not an action heavy film that happens to be set in another world. That genre/tone impacts who the films appeals to generally, and Dune is likely to skew towards older white men than films of similar level. Take with a grain of salt because of the day and date release, but 44% of Dune's OW audience was men over 25, and 55% Caucasian

 

14 hours ago, TwoMisfits said:

You're too low.  Sometimes, tracking is gonna be on point.  I don't think this is one of those times:).

Maybe a bit, like I'm not going to be shocked if we're pushing up to $80M for OW, but not by much because of what I just wrote above. The reasons tracking "misses" is usually because there is a slice (or many!) of potential audience that is undervalued, like teens with FNAF for example, and quite often Black and Hispanic audiences. But I just don't think Dune II is going to bring out the young and diverse crowd that pushed ATSV way up for example, or even a large female crowd like Oppy thanks to riding Barbie's coattails. 

Without the expected audience demographics, there's not going to this huge final surge. The only hope to keep would be that it plays well in more rural areas (see TGM, Indy 5), but being both a sci-fi film and a sequel probably makes it less accessible to a casual audience just looking for some entertaining action flick

[Last Man Standing]

18 minutes ago, M37 said:

I don't think its wrong to say Dune is a sci-fi epic, a large scale visual but slower-paced story of politics and relationships. Its not an action heavy film that happens to be set in another world. That genre/tone impacts who the films appeals to generally, and Dune is likely to skew towards older white men than films of similar level. Take with a grain of salt because of the day and date release, but 44% of Dune's OW audience was men over 25, and 55% Caucasian

55% Caucasian doesn't strike me as particularly white? That'd mean the audience was more diverse than the American population as a whole.

[TwoMisfits]

Just now, Last Man Standing said:

55% Caucasian doesn't strike me as particularly white? That'd mean the audience was more diverse than the American population as a whole.

 

The testing is done in areas that are more diverse than the American public...at least, that's the conclusion I've come to tracking demos over the years (since the exact city testing sites are not released)...so, it's harder to get a movie to skew to a high Caucasian %...

[M37]

8 minutes ago, Last Man Standing said:

55% Caucasian doesn't strike me as particularly white? That'd mean the audience was more diverse than the American population as a whole.

In the context of movie-going audience generally (which is much younger and more diverse than general population), and how these demo samples are collected, it’s very high. I generally consider over 40% to be a skew, over 50% a strong slew 

 

ATSV for example was only 27% White, 34% Hispanic 

[Valonqar]

Does it matter? Barbie showed that if one demo is big enough and motivated to do repeat viewings, it can carry a movie very far. Causasian women really carried that one.  Granted, Dune II is unlikely to make that kind of money but all I'm saying that skewing more one demo is not necessarily a doom for legs.