Eternals Weekend Thread: 71M OW DOM, 90M OS | Dune 7.6M (-50%), NTTD 6.2M, Venom 4.5M, Spencer 2.1M

[keysersoze123]

Just now, baumer said:

 

And yet Empire has it doing 80.

That would be a real surprise. I am not seeing a friday - previews that much ahead from Shang Chi. Could be that MTC could under index today. We will know for sure tonight. 

 

 

 

[Cap]

[Legion Again]

The True IM should be pretty close to SC, so like 8% ahead previews and 8% ahead true fri ~8% ahead wknd.

[Johnny Tran]

Y'all really believe the next batch of MCU movies for 2022 are going above pre-pandemic levels?   i don't see it.. 

[XXR vs XXR]

If it's actually $22-22.5m TF I don't see how we get to $80m+ OW from there. 

I mean it'll be relatively close but probably more like $77-78m. 

[Ms Lady Hawk]

4 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

That would be a real surprise. I am not seeing a friday - previews that much ahead from Shang Chi. Could be that MTC could under index today. We will know for sure tonight. 

 

 

 

Thank you for tempering expectations.

[XXR vs XXR]

Just now, Johnny Tran said:

Y'all really believe the next batch of MCU movies for 2022 are going above pre-pandemic levels?   i don't see it.. 

Domestically? Yes. 2021 is at nearly pre-pandemic levels for MCU films. BW probably does $50-70m more if there's no PA, so likely $230-250m. 

My guess is these films are 10-15% off pre-pandemic numbers right now. 

First MCU film in 2022 isn't until May. At most we'd probably be 5% off at that point if not fully back. 

 

[Legion Again]

4 minutes ago, VenomXXR said:

If it's actually $22-22.5m TF I don't see how we get to $80m+ OW from there. 

9.5

22.5

29.6

20.4

 

82   
 

The Sat isn’t even all that aggressive.

[baumer]

1 minute ago, Eternal Legion said:

9.5

22.5

29.6

20.4

 

82   
 

The Sat isn’t even all that aggressive.

 

That's a 30% increase on Saturday.  I don't think that's going to happen.  

[Legion Again]

Just now, baumer said:

 

That's a 30% increase on Saturday.  I don't think that's going to happen.  

32% to be precise. Ragnarok +38%, DS1 +35%, The dark world +28% off veteran’s inflated fri, and Sat sales have been abnormally strong (potentially related to runtime and imax heaviness, as we saw with dune).

[grim22]

5 minutes ago, Eternal Legion said:

32% to be precise. Ragnarok +38%, DS1 +35%, The dark world +28% off veteran’s inflated fri, and Sat sales have been abnormally strong (potentially related to runtime and imax heaviness, as we saw with dune).

That's 2 of the movies with the strongest reviews and word of mouth in the MCU compared to a movie with the RT in the 40s and verified score at 86. TDW Veterans day was Monday.

[baumer]

5 minutes ago, Eternal Legion said:

32% to be precise. Ragnarok +38%, DS1 +35%, The dark world +28% off veteran’s inflated fri, and Sat sales have been abnormally strong (potentially related to runtime and imax heaviness, as we saw with dune).

 

But those are all films pre-pandemic.  I still think the current box office climate is a bit messed up.  I don't think it will spike that much on Saturday.  

[XXR vs XXR]

15 minutes ago, Eternal Legion said:

9.5

22.5

29.6

20.4

 

82   
 

The Sat isn’t even all that aggressive.

 

I guess we will see but if Friday is $22.5m I think it's more like a $27m Sat and $18.5m Sun.

[charlie Jatinder]

take these with pinch of salt, I will edit them in may be an hour.

 

Dune - 2.1

NTTD - 1.7
V2 - 1

Ron - 0.9

Spencer may be 700-800K true friday.

 

[Legion Again]

11 minutes ago, grim22 said:

That's 2 of the movies with the strongest reviews and word of mouth in the MCU compared to a movie with the RT in the 40s and verified score at 86. TDW Veterans day was Monday.

Yeah my bad on tdw veteran’s timing there. I had recently been looking at the 2nd weekends for the trio and got it mixed up with the veteran inflated fri for DS and rag. I don’t think reviews are going to affect this as much as you think though — the sat sales were pointing to more like a 40% jump, so 30% is already assuming some impact from the worse wom.

11 minutes ago, baumer said:

 

But those are all films pre-pandemic.  I still think the current box office climate is a bit messed up.  I don't think it will spike that much on Saturday.  

Yeah the pandemic injects some additional uncertainty, but V2 and SC Sat were both well in line with expectations from pre-pandemic comps so I’m not *that* concerned about it.

Edited November 6, 2021 by Eternal Legion

[Johnny Tran]

12 minutes ago, grim22 said:

That's 2 of the movies with the strongest reviews and word of mouth in the MCU compared to a movie with the RT in the 40s and verified score at 86. TDW Veterans day was Monday.

 

Yeah MCU and all...  but Eternals not the same brand name as Thor MCU or not...   to me anyway.. 

[grim22]

9 minutes ago, Eternal Legion said:

I don’t think reviews are going to affect this as much as you think though — 

 

I mean, before the reviews came out, I was thinking this could have done like 110+ OW. Looked like a perfect storm victory lap if it had got those Oscar level reviews Feige was touting for a while. The huge buzz it had definitely died when the reviews started.

[Legion Again]

14 minutes ago, grim22 said:

 

I mean, before the reviews came out, I was thinking this could have done like 110+ OW. Looked like a perfect storm victory lap if it had got those Oscar level reviews Feige was touting for a while. The huge buzz it had definitely died when the reviews started.

Oh, they are hugely impacting OW, and that is clear from the sales pattern. I mean that it won’t impact the Sat bump as much as your comment implied — the Sat will be much lower than it it had SC reception, but the True Fri is also much lower than if it had SC reception already.

[Blankments]

5 hours ago, Maggie said:

The most important question this weekend: how is RED NOTICE doing? It has the three biggest stars in HW right now

I know you’re joking but it’s bizarre how no theater in Chicago is playing it; we generally get all the Netflix releases

[BestPicturePlutoNash]

38 minutes ago, charlie Jatinder said:

take these with pinch of salt, I will edit them in may be an hour.

 

Dune - 2.1

NTTD - 1.7
V2 - 1

Ron - 0.9

Spencer may be 700-800K true friday.

 

What would this mean for Spencer’s weekend ?