No Way Home Weekend Thread | #RIP AIW Record | 260M OW DOM | 340M OS | 600M OW WW W/O CHINA

[eddyxx]

1 hour ago, Alligator Zatt said:

It deserves to break all kinds of records. Endgame is still my favorite superhero film of all time, but this is definitely my favorite Spider-Man film of all time. I’m equally absolutely thrilled and devastated by it. Tom Holland IS Spider-Man. AND Peter Parker.

I’m anxious to know what you thought  of T&A especially the A if you can post in the spoiler thread.(if you haven’t already).

Edited December 17, 2021 by eddyxx

[The Panda]

I can’t believe the MCU finally did Spider Man right after two bad movies and iron spider nonsense in avengers.

[eddyxx]

1 hour ago, EmpireCity said:

I can't stress enough to keep in mind that all of this is going on while we have lost about 400-600 theaters that never re-opened and some are still just getting back opened this week.  

 

Also consider that theaters, especially dine in cinema, is having massive labor issues that are affecting the number of guests they can get in the building.  

 

The other factor everyone should consider after this week that I haven't heard many mention is that starting on 12/22 there is going to be a huge reduction in available shows among non-megaplex theaters.  

 

For example, if a theater has 10 screens, then from 12/16-12/21 they are going to be dedicating 5 screens to Spider-Man.  That reduces down to maybe 3 by 12/22 and on 12/25 they likely only have 2 screens dedicated.  

 

Rival studios, especially Disney, are demanding that their films play and play clean.  They are trying to shove Encanto through if they can, West Side Story has to play a full schedule, they expect everyone to take A King's Man.  Sony wants everyone to play Journal for Jordan while still trying to hold Ghostbusters on a full schedule (they won't get it).  Lionsgate is demanding fair treatment and as many theaters as they can play American Underdog.  Theaters naturally want to play Sing 2 and Matrix.  

 

Pointing this out as it will take the 14-30 screen multi-megaplexes to rack up 2nd weekend numbers.  Spider-Man won't have nearly the same screen space as The Force Awakens, Avengers: Infinity War, Avengers: Endgame and others had.  

So what you’re saying is that the legs on this are gonna be sexy as fuck?

 

[Legion Again]

Discovered today that Jackass 3D made the DOM top 340 or so.    
 

L

M

F

A

O

[EmpireCity]

6 minutes ago, Cap said:

@EmpireCity Thanks for the update. It’s unfortunate because well I totally would not go every week, I’d absolutely watch a premiere or a finale in a movie theater. I just like the social aspect of it. And it just feels like a win-win, particularly if you’re not doing like a week exclusive. But rather a Fathom Events-Esque deal. 
 

Also, boys:

broke: I wanna watch Fett on IMAX

woke: I wanna watch SUCCESSION on IMAX 

 

😂😂😂. Hell put it in Dolby. We deserve to hear that banger theme song in Dolby. 

 

For sure, and I feel the same way.  

 

Sometimes I don't think a lot of people realize just how insanely restrictive things are for theaters and what a complete stranglehold that studios and others have on them in relation to what they can do with these multi-million dollar complexes that they have sitting there.  

 

In the United States, if you have let's say a 10 screen theater, here is what it takes to show content on screen and the hoops they have to jump through....

 

- Theaters must play any new release film they have booked as a "clean" run in accordance to a very long and detailed exhibition agreement with the studio unless there is a specific permission where a film is allowed to be "split".  It must adhere to "fair play" rules.  

 

- Any older film has to be pre-booked and has to be available to be licensed to play with express permission and in the format that the studio demands or approves.  Every single time, no exceptions.  The film usually can't be played until digital "keys" are sent to unlock it at the specific time it is booked for.  

 

- If someone wants to have a birthday party and show their little 8 year old girl and her 10 friends Frozen, lol good luck unless you can find a theater willing to risk hooking up a blu-ray player to the projector and hoping Disney won't find out and then punish them via pulling a new release or fining them.  Even if you pick something you can actually play like E.T. or The Polar Express, then it's going to be a minimum of $250 straight to the studio to have that birthday party watch it.  

 

- No tv shows, no sporting events, no anything can be shown on screen without the express written permission of the studio or producers.  

 

- According to the exhibition agreements, the projector logs could be requested at any time to make sure that nothing was played without permission.  

 

- If the theater wanted to put a movie on for their staff to have a fun night, it's technically illegal or breaking the rules unless permission is given.  

 

- If the theater breaks anything from fair play rules or forgets to put on a late show of West Side Story or skips playing Encanto on the opening night of Spider-Man, they they are subject to having their keys pulled, the movie taken off sale and having the entire run of the film charged at 80% licensing instead of 60%.  

 

- If a company wants to have their Christmas party and is doing a theater buyout and watching Spider-Man a week after it releases, the studio still wants to require theaters to ask for permission.  Nobody does, but they still have it in the rules.  

 

So anyways, to end the rant, you will hear a lot of stories or read articles of how movie theaters are trying to expand their offerings by doing licensed UFC fights or WWE Summer Slam or live comedy shows or having E-Gaming or whatever.  All of that is a great thought, but it's never really going to make an impact enough to work in the long run due to it being hard to build an audience for it and the cost and manpower it takes to run those things.  

 

Movie theaters need movies to survive.  Under the current rules, they not only need movies but they need theatrical exclusive movies to survive.  If anyone ever wonders why theater owners and NATO and others fight so hard to maintain theatrical exclusivity and why, then look no further.  

 

 

 

- 

[eddyxx]

41 minutes ago, EmpireCity said:

 

Not to be a wet blanket, but you guys are about 20 years too late on this.  Theaters would LOVE to show tv shows.  It would be a massive win to be able to put Game of Thrones on every Sunday night during its run, or show Lost when it was the cultural phenomenon, Sopranos, Succession, or the new episode of Hawkeye or Ozark or Wandavision or Loki or The Mandalorian or any other number of shows that would guarantee a rabid built in audience that would go nuts for seeing it in a theater setting with a crowd and have that energy.  

 

Theaters tried this.  I know of a theater that showed the Lost finale on ever screen of a 10 plex and "sold it out" via a voucher that went towards their food and beverage.  1,000+ people that night having the time of their lives.  HBO has premiered Game of Thrones and other shows at select theaters.  

 

Unfortunately, the way contracts for television are written they don't allow for paid theatrical exhibition.  The next obstacle that isn't able (as of now) to be overcome is the obligation to cable companies and the advertisers or subscribers.  

 

Unless you have the express written permission of the producers of the show, it is an immediate cease and desist and automatic lawsuit if you don't listen.  

 

Same thing for major sporting events that aren't specifically licensed out.  It's 2021 and only now has a theater chain (AMC) been able to cut a deal with the NFL to show games.  

Fans used to screen the buffy musical every year in a singalong get together but the lawyers put a end to that tradition.

[Legion Again]

Spoiler

 

6 minutes ago, EmpireCity said:

 

For sure, and I feel the same way.  

 

Sometimes I don't think a lot of people realize just how insanely restrictive things are for theaters and what a complete stranglehold that studios and others have on them in relation to what they can do with these multi-million dollar complexes that they have sitting there.  

 

In the United States, if you have let's say a 10 screen theater, here is what it takes to show content on screen and the hoops they have to jump through....

 

- Theaters must play any new release film they have booked as a "clean" run in accordance to a very long and detailed exhibition agreement with the studio unless there is a specific permission where a film is allowed to be "split".  It must adhere to "fair play" rules.  

 

- Any older film has to be pre-booked and has to be available to be licensed to play with express permission and in the format that the studio demands or approves.  Every single time, no exceptions.  The film usually can't be played until digital "keys" are sent to unlock it at the specific time it is booked for.  

 

- If someone wants to have a birthday party and show their little 8 year old girl and her 10 friends Frozen, lol good luck unless you can find a theater willing to risk hooking up a blu-ray player to the projector and hoping Disney won't find out and then punish them via pulling a new release or fining them.  Even if you pick something you can actually play like E.T. or The Polar Express, then it's going to be a minimum of $250 straight to the studio to have that birthday party watch it.  

 

- No tv shows, no sporting events, no anything can be shown on screen without the express written permission of the studio or producers.  

 

- According to the exhibition agreements, the projector logs could be requested at any time to make sure that nothing was played without permission.  

 

- If the theater wanted to put a movie on for their staff to have a fun night, it's technically illegal or breaking the rules unless permission is given.  

 

- If the theater breaks anything from fair play rules or forgets to put on a late show of West Side Story or skips playing Encanto on the opening night of Spider-Man, they they are subject to having their keys pulled, the movie taken off sale and having the entire run of the film charged at 80% licensing instead of 60%.  

 

- If a company wants to have their Christmas party and is doing a theater buyout and watching Spider-Man a week after it releases, the studio still wants to require theaters to ask for permission.  Nobody does, but they still have it in the rules.  

 

So anyways, to end the rant, you will hear a lot of stories or read articles of how movie theaters are trying to expand their offerings by doing licensed UFC fights or WWE Summer Slam or live comedy shows or having E-Gaming or whatever.  All of that is a great thought, but it's never really going to make an impact enough to work in the long run due to it being hard to build an audience for it and the cost and manpower it takes to run those things.  

 

Movie theaters need movies to survive.  Under the current rules, they not only need movies but they need theatrical exclusive movies to survive.  If anyone ever wonders why theater owners and NATO and others fight so hard to maintain theatrical exclusivity and why, then look no further.  

 

 

 

- 

 

 

And we are back full circle to my original complaint about overly restrictive studio contracts    
 

I’m not sure how long this status quo can last, but I look forward to finding out.

[Cap]

10 minutes ago, EmpireCity said:

Even if you pick something you can actually play like E.T. or The Polar Express, then it's going to be a minimum of $250 straight to the studio to have that birthday party watch

I totally believe these. We tried to book a private screening during COVID and I asked them to price out Singin In The Rain and/or Jurassic Park. Quote was $787. 
 

We ended up doing their $199 Wonder Woman special instead. 

[EmpireCity]

Just now, Product Driven Legion said:

  Reveal hidden contents

 

 

 

And we are back full circle to my original complaint about overly restrictive studio contracts    
 

I’m not sure how long this status quo can last, but I look forward to finding out.

 

I've been the biggest advocate of theatrical not going away and can/will thrive going forward, but I would be lying if I didn't admit that theaters are on the razors edge. 

 

Covid isn't the biggest threat.  Theaters have already survived it and it can't kill theaters.  Studios aren't even the problem.  

 

What the real danger is are certain high level executives at these publicly traded conglomerates that are looking for any reason to listen to their wall street analysts and advisors.  Bob Chapek, Comcast execs, AT&T execs, Viacom execs would kill off theatrical tomorrow if they could.  In fact, they have analysts and advisors begging them to do it.  These people want these executives to massively step up their content creation in all realms and put all of it directly on their streaming services in an effort to drive quarterly subscriber growth.  They are convinced that if they did this and skipped theaters all together that it would increase subscriptions and cause the stock to increase.  It's all they give a shit about.  Sounds like a movie cliche, but it is the absolute truth and guys like Bob Chapek nearly did it.  

 

Fortunately the thing standing in their way are people like Kevin Feige.  Unfortunately, due to crazy amounts of money and executives willing to finance passion projects, even hard core theatrical believers get turned by streaming services more and more each day.  You already have Apple and Netflix eating up Martin Scorsese, David Fincher, Ron Howard, Coen Brothers, Spike Lee, Rian Johnson and others.  

 

2022 is a very important year.  It isn't going to start off well with a really slow January and February, but I expect to see a return to normalcy around Memorial Day and running through the rest of the year.  

 

 

[iHeartJames]

random but I just recently watched 'The Polar Express' and that is one movie you cannot just pause at any certain time cuz lord the faces are nightmare fuel

[Legion Again]

On 12/15/2021 at 11:37 PM, Product Driven Legion said:

Don’t take these too seriously, plenty of rough estimation, different franchises, different months, different Th start times, different pandemic conditions, etc. But still, was playing around with numbers and I figured some people might like this as a reference. 
 

Movie	Final PS (fri morning)	Previews	True PS	True FSS	True FSS/True PS	True FSS-True PS	wknd
AEG	190,000,000	60,000,000	130,000,000	297,115,007	2.286	167,115,007	357,115,007
TFA	140,000,000	54,000,000	86,000,000	193,966,675	2.255	107,966,675	247,966,675
TLJ	120,000,000	45,000,000	75,000,000	175,009,584	2.333	100,009,584	220,009,584
TROS	115,000,000	40,000,000	75,000,000	137,383,864	1.832	62,383,864	177,383,864
IW	105,000,000	39,000,000	66,000,000	218,698,183	3.314	152,698,183	257,698,183
Geomean	130,975,482	46,921,990	83,872,899	197,833,069	2.359	111,442,434	245,433,419
Trimmed geomean	124,547,699	45,978,566	78,500,723	195,079,384	2.291	118,137,671	227,697,791
NWH rough proj	133000000	47000000	86000000	197046447.5	2.291	111,046,448	244046447.5
NWH worst case	128000000	46000000	82000000	150206358	1.832	68,206,358	196206358
NWH best case	140000000	52000000	88000000	220000000	2.500	132,000,000	272000000

Lemme just drop this here while we wait for prev actuals:

Movie	Final PS (fri morning)	Previews	True PS	True FSS	True FSS/True PS	True FSS-True PS	wknd
AEG	190,000,000	60,000,000	130,000,000	297,115,007	2.286	167,115,007	357,115,007
TFA	140,000,000	54,000,000	86,000,000	193,966,675	2.255	107,966,675	247,966,675
TLJ	120,000,000	45,000,000	75,000,000	175,009,584	2.333	100,009,584	220,009,584
TROS	115,000,000	40,000,000	75,000,000	137,383,864	1.832	62,383,864	177,383,864
IW	105,000,000	39,000,000	66,000,000	218,698,183	3.314	152,698,183	257,698,183
Geomean	130,975,482	46,921,990	83,872,899	197,833,069	2.359	111,442,434	245,433,419
Trimmed geomean	124,547,699	45,978,566	78,500,723	195,079,384	2.291	118,137,671	227,697,791
NWH realistic 1.0	133000000	47000000	86000000	197046447.5	2.291	111,046,448	244046447.5
NWH worst 1.0	129000000	46000000	83000000	155078905.7	1.868	72,078,906	201078905.7
NWH best 1.0	140000000	52000000	88000000	220000000	2.500	132,000,000	272000000
Realistic 2.0	141000000	51000000	90000000	206211398.6	2.291	116,211,399	257211398.6

That’d be about 770 with bad legs, for anyone who might be thinking about the avatar club or the DOM contest (both of which are now closing Sun midnight) 👍

 

Edited December 17, 2021 by Product Driven Legion

[EmpireCity]

16 minutes ago, Cap said:

I totally believe these. We tried to book a private screening during COVID and I asked them to price out Singin In The Rain and/or Jurassic Park. Quote was $787. 
 

We ended up doing their $199 Wonder Woman special instead. 

 

I know of a theater chain that had leased Sony projectors and for years they had played DCP versions they made themselves for convenience of various films for birthday parties and other private events.  They entered a new market and the dominant and very protective theater chain in that market that didn't like them being there sent in phony requests for quotes to have birthday parties that would pay Disney films or other off limits films.  The theater company had a lower level person that was dumb enough to respond back that it was no problem.  

 

The protective theater chain turned them into the studio.  The studio had Sony pull all the projector logs and they found all sorts of instances of them playing their content when not authorized and not as an authorized DCP file or format.  

 

They hit them with a gigantic fine that it took a bunch of lawyers on both sides going back and forth to negotiate a settlement.  

 

All of that over a theater playing movies for kids birthday parties and not charging them $250 for licensing.  

 

Welcome to the theatrical industry.  

[Legion Again]

Here I was fawning over SC setting a new critical+audience RT record for the mcu… and within the next two movies we get the new lowest record and a (likely) new highest.      
 

All the audience metrics are just stupid good so far. Curious to here about post track and demos and blah blah but I finally believe in the +.

[Momori]

 

[Inceptionzq]

6 minutes ago, Momori said:

 

Accurate representation of my showing

[Legion Again]

@Shawn with a fun observation:

 

[Legion Again]

Secret wars. Dec 2027. So mote it be.

[Cap]

5 minutes ago, Product Driven Legion said:

Secret wars. Dec 2027. So mote it be.

 I was JUST quoting the post above to make that joke. Time to start the thread. 😂😂😂

[Legion Again]

262M needed to be the 2nd highest weekend PTA of the year, over the 2nd weekend of this year’s PTA

[Shanks]

56 minutes ago, Product Driven Legion said:

Lemme just drop this here while we wait for prev actuals:

Movie	Final PS (fri morning)	Previews	True PS	True FSS	True FSS/True PS	True FSS-True PS	wknd
AEG	190,000,000	60,000,000	130,000,000	297,115,007	2.286	167,115,007	357,115,007
TFA	140,000,000	54,000,000	86,000,000	193,966,675	2.255	107,966,675	247,966,675
TLJ	120,000,000	45,000,000	75,000,000	175,009,584	2.333	100,009,584	220,009,584
TROS	115,000,000	40,000,000	75,000,000	137,383,864	1.832	62,383,864	177,383,864
IW	105,000,000	39,000,000	66,000,000	218,698,183	3.314	152,698,183	257,698,183
Geomean	130,975,482	46,921,990	83,872,899	197,833,069	2.359	111,442,434	245,433,419
Trimmed geomean	124,547,699	45,978,566	78,500,723	195,079,384	2.291	118,137,671	227,697,791
NWH realistic 1.0	133000000	47000000	86000000	197046447.5	2.291	111,046,448	244046447.5
NWH worst 1.0	129000000	46000000	83000000	155078905.7	1.868	72,078,906	201078905.7
NWH best 1.0	140000000	52000000	88000000	220000000	2.500	132,000,000	272000000
Realistic 2.0	141000000	51000000	90000000	206211398.6	2.291	116,211,399	257211398.6

That’d be about 770 with bad legs, for anyone who might be thinking about the avatar club or the DOM contest (both of which are now closing Sun midnight) 👍

 

I think you missed one.

 

NWH Best 2.0   -  57 - 94 - 235