No Way Home Weekend Thread | #RIP AIW Record | 260M OW DOM | 340M OS | 600M OW WW W/O CHINA

[XXR vs XXR]

6 minutes ago, EmpireCity said:

 

Around $50m or so.  

[Gavin Feng]

18 minutes ago, EmpireCity said:

 

Friday around 10am or 11am EST.  

DL: That’s exclusive 

[CloneWars]

15 minutes ago, GoblinXXR said:

So, more than IW, but less than TFA and EG. Hmm...I noticed the preview audience was more casual than a SW audience which makes me think we can get a shit ton of walk-ups like IW did. So, having the 2nd highest OW of all-time would not surprise me, and $250M is probably at play here. I don't see this going much lower than $240 if the preview number holds.

[Gavin Feng]

Before Endgame, superhero’s previews look “weak” when you compare it to to Star Wars.  Most people thought Infinity War would not break the opening record after $39M previews. 

[Legion Again]

3PM changes everything. Can’t reason from old Fri/Th ratios or IMs. Once we  see Fri afternoon nums/pace, then we will know whether we are getting a nice 265 or a sad 225 

[charlie Jatinder]

8 minutes ago, Product Driven Legion said:

3PM changes everything. Can’t reason from old Fri/Th ratios or IMs. Once we  see Fri afternoon nums/pace, then we will know whether we are getting a nice 265 or a sad 225 

I mean for old ratios, if we assume that early shows didn't add to admits, and we had like $53M worth admits, Friday admits will be accordingly. As we saw with BW.

 

But then like we had 70% avg occupancy. So gotta think that 3PM start did help somewhat?

But may be  we could have had somewhat similar number of shows with say 6pm start?

 

Edited December 17, 2021 by charlie Jatinder

[XXR vs XXR]

4 minutes ago, Product Driven Legion said:

3PM changes everything. Can’t reason from old Fri/Th ratios or IMs. Once we  see Fri afternoon nums/pace, then we will know whether we are getting a nice 265 or a sad 225 

@Inceptionzq Megaplex numbers for Friday already comp against NTTD at $62M and against BW at $75M. 
 

That’s a pretty large sample size of 300+ shows. Obviously there’s way more data out there but WOM isn’t gonna allow this to slow down so I’d be surprised if true Friday was under $65M.

[ZattMurdock]

It deserves to break all kinds of records. Endgame is still my favorite superhero film of all time, but this is definitely my favorite Spider-Man film of all time. I’m equally absolutely thrilled and devastated by it. Tom Holland IS Spider-Man. AND Peter Parker.

[CloneWars]

9 minutes ago, Product Driven Legion said:

3PM changes everything. Can’t reason from old Fri/Th ratios or IMs. Once we  see Fri afternoon nums/pace, then we will know whether we are getting a nice 265 or a sad 225 

225 would surprise me if the preview is 50M. 235 is the lowest I think it can go off that number. Also, with how WOM is, 225 just seems way too low at this point.

Edited December 17, 2021 by CloneWars

[AJG]

Yeeesh

 

 

 

[Blankments]

This will probably do insanely well, hot take i know

[XXR vs XXR]

2 minutes ago, Blankments said:

This will probably do insanely well, hot take i know

[EmpireCity]

I can't stress enough to keep in mind that all of this is going on while we have lost about 400-600 theaters that never re-opened and some are still just getting back opened this week.  

 

Also consider that theaters, especially dine in cinema, is having massive labor issues that are affecting the number of guests they can get in the building.  

 

The other factor everyone should consider after this week that I haven't heard many mention is that starting on 12/22 there is going to be a huge reduction in available shows among non-megaplex theaters.  

 

For example, if a theater has 10 screens, then from 12/16-12/21 they are going to be dedicating 5 screens to Spider-Man.  That reduces down to maybe 3 by 12/22 and on 12/25 they likely only have 2 screens dedicated.  

 

Rival studios, especially Disney, are demanding that their films play and play clean.  They are trying to shove Encanto through if they can, West Side Story has to play a full schedule, they expect everyone to take A King's Man.  Sony wants everyone to play Journal for Jordan while still trying to hold Ghostbusters on a full schedule (they won't get it).  Lionsgate is demanding fair treatment and as many theaters as they can play American Underdog.  Theaters naturally want to play Sing 2 and Matrix.  

 

Pointing this out as it will take the 14-30 screen multi-megaplexes to rack up 2nd weekend numbers.  Spider-Man won't have nearly the same screen space as The Force Awakens, Avengers: Infinity War, Avengers: Endgame and others had.  

[Legion Again]

14 minutes ago, CloneWars said:

225 would surprise me if the preview is 50M. 235 is the lowest I think it can go off that number. Also, with how WOM is, 225 just seems way too low at this point.

Well, there’s a reason I described it as sad 😛 

[Legion Again]

American screen contract system is so ugly, sad, and primitive. 10plexes should be free to put spidey on 8 screens from 16th-21st and 5 on the 24th

[EmpireCity]

3 minutes ago, Product Driven Legion said:

American screen contract system is so ugly, sad, and primitive. 10plexes should be free to put spidey on 8 screens from 16th-21st and 5 on the 24th

 

I agree that the system is outdated and needs an overhaul.  Everything should be looked at from the fair play rules to pricing.  

 

What I will say that during the Holiday this has sort of a hidden benefit, or at least it should especially this year.  

 

What this will do with a massive 4 quad crowd pleasing theatrical exclusive smash hit is stretch out the run well into January, and this January theaters need it badly given how bad the studios are actively fucking over theaters with their January and February release schedules.  

[Legion Again]

Just now, EmpireCity said:

 

I agree that the system is outdated and needs an overhaul.  Everything should be looked at from the fair play rules to pricing.  

 

What I will say that during the Holiday this has sort of a hidden benefit, or at least it should especially this year.  

 

What this will do with a massive 4 quad crowd pleasing theatrical exclusive smash hit is stretch out the run well into January, and this January theaters need it badly given how bad the studios are actively fucking over theaters with their January and February release schedules.  

Yeah it’s very rare that it’s *really* a problem. Generally you only get a mega pileup like we have next weekend when the system can support it with weekdays and Jan soaking demand. Still, the net effect is consumers with a harder time watching the movie the wanting to see in a cinema when they wanted to see it, and more dead space showings.
 

Overall the screen allocation and pricing systems are just so inflexible compared to markets that developed more recently, feels like the Triassic era and bugs me on an aesthetic level.

[Porthos]

14 minutes ago, AJG said:

Yeeesh

 

 

 

 

Man, it must be nice to live in a market that actually has a variety of PLF choices for Matrix Resurrections, coz Sacto sure ain't it.  ALL of the XD/4DX/ScreenX/RPX screens in the region next week are going to NWH and most of the DBOX seats as well.  I am lucky enough that the theater within a stone's throw of me is splitting its IMAX screen between TMR and NWH, but that means I have to see it either at 11am in the morning or 10pm at night.    My other options are seeing it on a "Giant Screen" way out in the boondocks at a Cinema West location, since some of them have multiple PLF screens and a couple of them are throwing TMR a bone.

 

Otherwise though, very slim pickings for me when it comes to seeing The Matrix Resurrections on anything approaching a really big screen.

[AdrianL]

I have to say... very much appreciate theater workers, this weekend is gonna be awful for a lot of them. Insane how people can't just bring their trash or not spill huge amounts of popcorn, my auditorium leaving an IMAX screening was an absolute mess. Sigh.

 

But... yeah, this movie is gonna make b a n k.

[Porthos]

1 hour ago, EmpireCity said:

 

Around $50m or so.  

 

In for 49m for 1) My Accuracy Rating and 2) @GoblinXXR's Meltdown for coming THIIIIIS CLOSE to 50m and missing. 👍