The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread (December 2021 - July 2023)

[EmpireCity]

26 minutes ago, BruiseCruise said:

My local imax for Thursday have sold around 20%

 

That would be extremely unusual.  What theater is it?

[BruiseCruise]

28 minutes ago, EmpireCity said:

 

That would be extremely unusual.  What theater is it?

amc gulf pointe 30, when i looked about an hour ago, the 7:00 showtime was doing pretty well but the 3:00 and 11:00 had very few seats sold, 

Edited February 28, 2022 by BruiseCruise

[charlie Jatinder]

1 hour ago, PenguinXXR said:

LOL. You do know where we are coming from right? Have a look at Marcus once, and see if it will be easier for you to do those.

 

I will try and get you the list of best 10-15 of the chain, so you can have maximum data from minimum theaters.

[Eric is Quiet]

10 hours ago, Eric Says Trans Rights said:

The Batman Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-5 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	2	189	6514	36269	17.96%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 321

 

Comp

2.125x of Black Widow T-5 (28.05M)

2.798x of Eternals T-5 (26.58M)

0.331x of Spider-Man: No Way Home T-5 (16.57M)

 

Adjusted Comp

0.406x of Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker T-5 (16.25M)

The Batman Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-4 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	2	189	6931	36269	19.11%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 417

 

Comp

2.063x of Black Widow T-4 (27.24M)

2.778x of Eternals T-4 (26.38M)

0.340x of Spider-Man: No Way Home T-4 (17.01M)

 

Adjusted Comp

0.420x of Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker T-4 (weed...also 16.79M)

 

I mean...it's been doing what it's normally been doing. And what it's normally doing has been good, so...yeah, we're good. We'll see if tomorrow can do some crazy magic or whatever.

[Joyous Legion]

Philly has been stable at ~21.5 for a long time at this point (I'm taking Geomean of BW and NWH, but you could throw TROS and et into the mix and it's the same story, or use an exponential fit and mostly same story). Philly has seemed to be on the higher end of our indicators, so still thinking 19-23 basically. It will need really huge final week to make much gain on the comps, so let's see what raves/early wom can do.

[filmlover]

5 hours ago, Cap said:

Totally anecdotal, but my Thursday night movie crew that we do the MCU movies with all said they had no interest in seeing this on Thursday night. They said that they get to it sometime during the weekend or the week. And they’re all the prime demo of the single, male, comic book fan.  And they are not one or the other fans. We do all of them. 
 

For Tracking, I just eye balled my IMAX up here. It’s about 40% full for Thursday 

It wouldn't surprise me if the fact it's so long has resulted in people waiting to find out when they'll be able to see it. A 2:55 minute movie (with 20 minutes or so of trailers before it) carves out a nice chunk of your day and requires some planning. I already know I'm seeing it Saturday evening.

[Cmasterclay]

I think The Batman is headed for slightly disappointing previews and slightly better internal IM than would be expected compared to most DC (and MCU these days) movies. There doesn't seem to be a mammoth rush to see it but generalized interest is high.

[Porthos]

23 hours ago, Porthos said:

 

The Batman Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-5 days and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	297	31137	36790	5653	15.37%

 

Total Capped Showings Removed Today	1
Total Seats Sold Today	251

 

T-5 Unadjusted Comps 

	%		Sold T-5	Total Sold		Sellouts/Shows	Seats Left/Total Seats	Perct Sold		Comp
BW	130.86		250	4320		0/193	22993/27313	15.82%		18.09m
NTTD	365.65		119	1546		0/145	20907/22453	6.89%		22.67m
Dune	469.52		63	1204		0/79	11124/12328	9.77%		23.95m
ET	198.42		99	2849		0/101	13119/15968	17.84%		18.85m
NWH	28.63		515	19748		0/325	19748/39120	50.48%		14.31m

 

 

Tuesday Sales:        701/815     [86.01% sold]   [+13 tickets]

Wednesday Sales: 1061/1301  [81.55% sold]     [+7 tickets]

Thursday Sales:   3891/34674  [11.22% sold] [+231 tickets]

---

Regal:  1472/11645  [12.64% sold] [+75 tickets]

Matinee: 268/4893   [5.48% | 4.74% of all tickets sold]

 

===

 

A decent (and fairly rare) Saturday bump locally.  WOM from folks breaking/bending social embargo trickling out?  If so, a good omen for tomorrow, perhaps.

 

The Batman Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-4 days and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	297	30769	36790	6021	16.37%

 

Total Seats Sold Today

368

 

T-4 Unadjusted Comps 

	%		Sold T-4	Total Sold		Sellouts/Shows	Seats Left/Total Seats	Perct Sold		Comp
BW	130.21		305	4625		0/193	22688/27313	16.93%		18.00m
NTTD	353.55		157	1703		0/145	20757/22460	7.58%		21.92m
Dune	451.35		130	1334		0/79	10936/12270	10.87%		23.01m
ET	198.06		191	3040		0/101	1298/15968	19.04%		18.82m
NWH	29.34		774	20522		1/325	18598/39120	52.46%		14.67m

 

 

Tuesday Sales:        706/815     [86.63% sold]    [+5 tickets]

Wednesday Sales: 1075/1301  [82.63% sold]  [+14 tickets]

Thursday Sales:   4240/34674  [12.23% sold] [+349 tickets]

---

Regal:  1568/11645  [13.47% sold] [+96 tickets]

Matinee: 289/4893   [5.91% | 4.80% of all tickets sold]

 

===

 

Man, I don't even effin' know (locally that is, at least compared to Philly/Denver).  A decent enough Sat-Sun rise, but still not enough to keep the current paces against Eternals and Black Widow. They only dropped a small amount, mind.  Still.  See what tomorrow brings when the review embargos finally lift for real, I suppose.

[El Gato]

17 hours ago, cax16 said:

Probably gonna be a pretty tough year for you buddy, sorry ahead of time lol. 

 

Well if those numbers aren’t happening then like I said, WB needs to give DC a rest and regroup. If Batman, their biggest character, can’t reach a billion then that’s depressing for DC fans. 

[BestPicturePlutoNash]

It truly is insane to me comic book movies are the biggest source of theatrical entertainment and something like the Batman wouldn't have fans fighting each other for Thursday seats. (I also do not see evidence of that here). Like, if your life is centered around these movies (and it certainly is for many), why is there no immediate excitement and rush here? Even with the runtime. I also don't buy Batman fatigue. That is also nonsense to me when we live in such a low-risk culture that rewards IP.

 

The movie will be fine successfully and hold on well in March Im sure. But I guess it truly does come down to Disney and the MCU's stranglehold on the zeitgeist. DC/WB simply cannot compete with that level of loyalty to pop off an insane OW post BVS/SS. I agree with post above that WB would probably have to regroup or focus on HBOMax where they seem to have more benefit of the doubt if Peacemaker's success is any indication

[Cap]

3 hours ago, BestPicturePlutoNash said:

It truly is insane to me comic book movies are the biggest source of theatrical entertainment and something like the Batman wouldn't have fans fighting each other for Thursday seats. (I also do not see evidence of that here). Like, if your life is centered around these movies (and it certainly is for many), why is there no immediate excitement and rush here? Even with the runtime. I also don't buy Batman fatigue. That is also nonsense to me when we live in such a low-risk culture that rewards IP.

 

The movie will be fine successfully and hold on well in March Im sure. But I guess it truly does come down to Disney and the MCU's stranglehold on the zeitgeist. DC/WB simply cannot compete with that level of loyalty to pop off an insane OW post BVS/SS. I agree with post above that WB would probably have to regroup or focus on HBOMax where they seem to have more benefit of the doubt if Peacemaker's success is any indication

Nope. 
 

NOPE.

 

We are not remotely doing this.

 

1. It is not insane that comic books are the biggest source of theatrical entertainment now. Adapted materials for movies have existed since the dawn of movies. If this was the 1920s, you’d probably be saying I can’t believe that Coward plays Are the only source of theatrical entertainment. Remember that 30 year period Where everything was a Western? Hollywood finally has the technology to adopt comic books, so that’s where were at. In the stories and adaptations just keep coming because there are literally thousands of stories and characters between DC, Marvel, and the indie comics that they can mine for source material. Next point.

 

2. Maybe if my life centers around these movies, and I would argue that my life probably does center around these movies, I’m in no rush to watch a three hour Batman movie on a Thursday night. And as exciting and as beautiful as the footage looks, it’s still a Batman movie. He dresses up in a bad suit, he goes and he fights crime, and his parents are still going to be dead. This has been the same for 40 years. This is not Batman fatigue. This is Batman pigeonholing itself. The best example that I can think of, and I’m sorry for pulling Star Wars into this, is that get the eff off Tatooine. There are other planets. There are other stories. If they came out of the gate and said this Batman has Dick Grayson as Robin, that be a different story. If they came out of the gate and said we’re going to make Bruce Wayne old, and we’re going to do Terry McGinnis, that would be a different story. 

 

3. This literally has nothing to do with Disney. This has nothing to do with the MCU. There have been financially successful Warner Bros./DC films during the MCU raise. They coexist. And they will continue to coexist. The only reason they would not coexist, is if one team imploded. And there’s no indication that that’s going to happen anytime soon.

 

So, please do not come in here with your concerned trolling. And if you want to pull that, you can go over to the Batman thread. This thread is for numbers and data.

[cax16]

26 minutes ago, Cap said:

Nope. 
 

NOPE.

 

We are not remotely doing this.

 

1. It is not insane that comic books are the biggest source of theatrical entertainment now. Adapted materials for movies have existed since the dawn of movies. If this was the 1920s, you’d probably be saying I can’t believe that Coward plays Are the only source of theatrical entertainment. Remember that 30 year period Where everything was a Western? Hollywood finally has the technology to adopt comic books, so that’s where were at. In the stories and adaptations just keep coming because there are literally thousands of stories and characters between DC, Marvel, and the indie comics that they can mine for source material. Next point.

 

2. Maybe if my life centers around these movies, and I would argue that my life probably does center around these movies, I’m in no rush to watch a three hour Batman movie on a Thursday night. And as exciting and as beautiful as the footage looks, it’s still a Batman movie. He dresses up in a bad suit, he goes and he fights crime, and his parents are still going to be dead. This has been the same for 40 years. This is not Batman fatigue. This is Batman pigeonholing itself. The best example that I can think of, and I’m sorry for pulling Star Wars into this, is that get the eff off Tatooine. There are other planets. There are other stories. If they came out of the gate and said this Batman has Dick Grayson as Robin, that be a different story. If they came out of the gate and said we’re going to make Bruce Wayne old, and we’re going to do Terry McGinnis, that would be a different story. 

 

3. This literally has nothing to do with Disney. This has nothing to do with the MCU. There have been financially successful Warner Bros./DC films during the MCU raise. They coexist. And they will continue to coexist. The only reason they would not coexist, is if one team imploded. And there’s no indication that that’s going to happen anytime soon.

 

So, please do not come in here with your concerned trolling. And if you want to pull that, you can go over to the Batman thread. This thread is for numbers and data.

Pretty much this exactly.
 

DC can and will do fine on their own, it’s people setting unrealistic expectations cause of mcu movies that seem to be the issue. One is the most successful franchise of all time, the other is DC. Keep making good movies/shows and people will start caring about your characters more wether it’s Batman or Peacemaker. MCU didn’t just start opening to 150m dollars and even their last few movies (minus NWH)didn’t touch those numbers, and I’m not saying they should have btw. 
 

Anyhow,

back to numbers like this thread was meant for. 

[Joyous Legion]

9 minutes ago, cax16 said:

MCU didn’t just start opening to 150m dollars

Agree with the larger point, but this feels a little misleading to me. Technically true, but not really correct in a conceptual sense as it relies on nominal grosses. First movie opened at #10 (modern equivalent 191M) and 3rd movie opened at #5 (modern equivalent 220M). They were out of the gate with a huge bang.

Edited February 28, 2022 by Derby Legion

[cax16]

37 minutes ago, Derby Legion said:

Agree with the larger point, but this feels a little misleading to me. Technically true, but not really correct in a conceptual sense as it relies on nominal grosses. First movie opened at #10 (modern equivalent 191M) and 3rd movie opened at #5 (modern equivalent 220M). They were out of the gate with a huge bang.

Fair point but they also started off really strong with Iron Man. Hulk, Cap and Thor weren’t exactly monster openers either but did fine. 

[excel1]

On 2/25/2022 at 2:52 PM, Shawn said:

 

 

 

Top two comments here are among the most uninformed and inaccurate comments I've ever read, and surprising coming from people who've been around this community for a long time.

 

The third... well, there is information below for you, too. In fact, if you read the text in our reports, you'd understand why the ranges are listed and that those are not the complete version of our tracking/forecasting.

 

It's easy for people to criticize when they don't put in the amount of work others do or understand the behind-the-scenes methodologies in play. Beyond that, you are viewing FREE content. What's "sad" @excel1 and @efialtes76 is that aside from cherry-picking, you're basing your opinions on claims you can't even prove. Instead of asking questions to understand, you're choosing the path of intellectual laziness with comments like this.

 

If you want access to the specific forecasts like we provide to quite a few clients and industry sources whom we have good relationships with -- and who understand what forecasting actually entails beyond just unreasonable internet fandom and keyboard warrior stances like yours here -- you're welcome to pay for it and get full access like others do.

 

If you don't want to pay attention to the facts or just simply disagree with our numbers sometimes though, that's fine, but don't come on this forum and attack me or the team I work with. It won't stand. Even when I'm not tagged in a post, there are a number of community members here who let me know when that type of thing occurs. It's juvenile and won't be tolerated.

 

I get that it's easy to attack people or publications, but how would you feel if someone trolled you at your place of work for no apparent reason?

 

Be better please or just don't post here anymore. This forum deserves better, and this thread is not made for such half-witted commentary that doesn't have some basis in reality.

 

To the vast majority of everyone else here, keep up the great work.

 

Just wanted to say that I am sorry for my remark. It was a tongue in cheek remark directed solely at The Batman number going down and not meant to cause any offense or ill feelings  nor did I expect anyone to follow up with serious comments in agreement, but I understand that it did and for that I am sorry. Maybe I am alone but I did not realize anyone here had anything to do with those projections. Either way, I am sure I speak for many when I say that this site, as a hub for info, analysis, and discussion about this very specific subject, is greatly appreciated along with the people whose time, effort & funds keep it running.

Edited February 28, 2022 by excel1

[HouseOfTheSun]

Alright let’s stop the doomposting about this movie. It’s going to do solid in its opening weekend. 120m-130m is a clear and away 2nd best post pandemic opening and will do 325m+ domestically, which again is great in this day and age. No it’s not MCU number but it doesn’t need to be.
 

Batman has suffered, whether people want to admit it or not, from the critical/ financial failure of the Snyderverse, and more importantly it’s absolute rejection by general audiences. Maybe it’s suffering from overexposure as well now but that doesn’t mean it needs to be shelved. 

 

this movie still has excitement and by all accounts is on track to be quality. It’s not this movie we need to worry about, it’s the after this one. If this is a fan pleasing movie that does solid financially but doesn’t blow us away, and THEN the next one disappoints then maybe we worry. Financial comparisons to marvel are never going to bring any dc fans happiness. It’s like comparing Apple to Samsung phone sales. If you harp on that you probably should let it go. 

Edited February 28, 2022 by HouseOfTheSun

[filmlover]

Not everyone has time to fit a nearly three hour movie into their very busy work week when they can just as easily see it on Saturday or Sunday when they have the time. Nor is the movie disappearing after this weekend is over. A novel concept, apparently.

[Joyous Legion]

1 minute ago, filmlover said:

Nor is the movie disappearing after this weekend is over.

This is a good idea actually. If we really want to break OW records we should just pull movies from being available (theater or digital) for like a month after the ow  

[BruiseCruise]

The Lost City showing a showtime for the 22nd 

[keysersoze123]

The Batman

Thursday - 80645/578964 1074425.71 3967 shows

Friday - 81928/751039 1033654.86 4853 shows

 

This is as of yesterday night. Let us see how things go starting today.  This does not include early shows. That is around 31-32K at this point.