The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread (December 2021 - July 2023)

[EmpireCity]

LOL at any "model" that has a data point to go off of with a $178m opening for Doctor Strange 2 but only sees a $110m opening for Thor and Black Panther.

 

It's hilarious.  

Edited May 20, 2022 by EmpireCity

[ZackM]

Spoiler alert: any model that predicts equal openings and totals for 3 different blockbuster movies is not a model at all.  It’s either just made up predictions or it’s a low level equation being fed made up assumptions.

[charlie Jatinder]

1 minute ago, ZackM said:

Spoiler alert: any model that predicts equal openings and totals for 3 different blockbuster movies is not a model at all.  It’s either just made up predictions or it’s a low level equation being fed made up assumptions.

I don't think any human can be that dumb. It definitely gotta we some weird calculations by a computer.

[ZackM]

6 minutes ago, charlie Jatinder said:

I don't think any human can be that dumb. It definitely gotta we some weird calculations by a computer.

Calculations are only as good as the data being supplied.  If it’s a calculation, I would bet it takes no more than 3 arguments and that all of those arguments are made up, not existing data points.

Edited May 20, 2022 by ZackM

[WrathOfHan]

Went to a late show of Men (terrible movie btw) with an audience of 25-30 people. At best, a quarter of the audience liked the movie; truly think we have our next F CinemaScore if they track it  

[keysersoze123]

Downtown Abby Thursday Alpha final - 15363/116240 210460.63 862 shows

 

I am not seeing how this does even 1m today when I look at sample MTC2 data. Under 350K between 2 chains I can track. Thinking previews including early shows under 1.5m for sure. 

[Ronin46]

1 minute ago, WrathOfHan said:

Went to a late show of Men (terrible movie btw) with an audience of 25-30 people. At best, a quarter of the audience liked the movie; truly think we have our next F CinemaScore if they track it  

 

I loved Ex Machina and enjoyed Annihilation but could just not get into his foray into tv with Devs. I was hoping his latest would be back to form. Oh well. Maybe I will give it a go.

[keysersoze123]

30 minutes ago, ZackM said:

 

Jurassic World: Dominion Alpha Chain Premiere Night Seat Report: T-21 days
	Last Day
Showings Added	4,249
Seats Added	755,974
Seats Sold	51,054
5/19/2022	Theaters	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Pct. Sold
Total	427	4,249	51,054	755,974	6.75%
% of Seats Sold	Sellouts	90%+	80%+	70%+	60%+
# of Showings	0	1	4	23	43
ATP
$18.14

Thank you @ZackM. Can you run it again tomorrow to get a sense of daily pace. Its ahead of BW for sure. Any comps with Bats?

[Ronin46]

2 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

Downtown Abby Thursday Alpha final - 15363/116240 210460.63 862 shows

 

I am not seeing how this does even 1m today when I look at sample MTC2 data. Under 350K between 2 chains I can track. Thinking previews including early shows under 1.5m for sure. 

 

I think the last 1 did 2.1M previews into over 30M OW so 1.5M would still get it to something decent. I think the thing that is worrying is the middling reviews and not great BO in the UK and how sales seem to have stalled now after a decent start. 

[charlie Jatinder]

2 minutes ago, Ronin46 said:

 

I think the last 1 did 2.1M previews into over 30M OW so 1.5M would still get it to something decent. I think the thing that is worrying is the middling reviews and not great BO in the UK and how sales seem to have stalled now after a decent start. 

The last one also had $2.2M in early access so $4.3M vs $1.5M.

[WrathOfHan]

15 minutes ago, Ronin46 said:

 

I loved Ex Machina and enjoyed Annihilation but could just not get into his foray into tv with Devs. I was hoping his latest would be back to form. Oh well. Maybe I will give it a go.

Nah this is a very noticeable downgrade from his other films (and I'm not even big on Annihilation)

[Eric Prime]

On 5/19/2022 at 12:09 AM, Eric Crawley said:

Top Gun: Maverick Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-8 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	154	1920	31650	6.07%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 121

 

Comp

1.916x of F9 T-8 (13.6M)

2.040x of No Time to Die T-8 (12.85M)

2.227x of Dune T-8 (11.36M)

2.844x of Ghostbusters: Afterlife T-8 (12.8M)

2.418x of Fantastic Beasts 3 T-8 (14.51M)

Top Gun: Maverick Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-7 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	154	2097	31650	6.63%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 177

 

Comp

1.988x of F9 T-7 (14.11M)

1.986x of No Time to Die T-7 (12.51M)

2.267x of Dune T-7 (11.56M)

2.925x of Ghostbusters: Afterlife T-7 (13.16M)

2.356x of Fantastic Beasts 3 T-7 (14.14M)

[Eric Prime]

On 5/19/2022 at 12:20 AM, Eric Crawley said:

Jurassic World: Dominion Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-22 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	130	1379	23332	5.91%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 22

 

Comp

3.207x of F9 T-22 (22.77M)

6.022x of Venom 2 T-22 (69.85M)

Jurassic World: Dominion Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-21 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	134	1395	23705	5.88%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 16

 

Comp

2.835x of F9 T-21 (20.13M)

4.634x of Venom 2 T-21 (53.76M)

[Brainbug]

7 hours ago, Grebacio said:

@Brainbug the Dinosaur they lowered their Jurassic World predictions by 40M due to lack of interest.

 

Worst prediction ive seen in a long, long time!

[Porthos]

On 5/19/2022 at 1:24 AM, Porthos said:

 

Jurassic World Dominion Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-22 and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	179	22838	24647	1809	7.34%

 

Total Seats Sold Today

41

 

T-22 Adjusted Comp

	%		Sold T-22	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
BW	98.48		73	1771		0/105	16847/18618	9.51%		9196	19.67%		13.61m
JWD (adj)	---		41	1744		0/157	20165/21909	7.96%		---	---		---

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of Top Gun: Maverick's current tickets sold versus that final number.

ADJUSTMENT NOTE:  JWD (adj) is the seats sold that does not include theaters that had unreliable data in their seat maps that that point in BW's track.

COMP NOTE: The BW comp has been adjusted to reflect the absence of Ontario theaters in the DOM market during BW's pre-sale run (what would normally be the comp/0.955).

 

Regal:      293/6065  [4.83% sold]
Matinee:    115/1535  [7.49% | 6.36% of all tickets sold]

 

Jurassic World Dominion Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-21 and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	184	22927	24807	1880	7.58%

 

Total Showings Added Today	5
Total Seats Added Today	160
Total Seats Sold Today	71

 

T-21 Adjusted Comp

	%		Sold T-21	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
BW	97.21		94	1865		0/105	16753/18618	10.02%		9196	20.44%		13.44m
JWD (adj)	---		110	1813		0/159	20256/22069	8.22%		---	---		---

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of Jurassic World: Dominon's current tickets sold versus that final number.

ADJUSTMENT NOTE:  JWD (adj) is the seats sold that does not include theaters that had unreliable data in their seat maps that that point in BW's track.

COMP NOTE: The BW comp has been adjusted to reflect the absence of Ontario theaters in the DOM market during BW's pre-sale run (what would normally be the comp/0.955).

 

Regal:       297/6145  [4.83% sold]
Matinee:    117/1535  [7.62% | 6.22% of all tickets sold]

Edited May 28, 2022 by Porthos

[Porthos]

On 5/19/2022 at 1:26 AM, Porthos said:

 

Top Gun: Maverick Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-8 days and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	268	31445	37015	5570	15.05%

 

Total Showings Capped Today	1
Total Seats Sold Today	365

 

T-8 Unadjusted Comps

	%		Sold T-8	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
Batsy	111.94		175	4976		0/297	31814/36790	13.53%		11757	47.38%		24.18m
DSMoM	46.07		397	12090		0/353	30586/42676	28.33%		21117	26.38%		16.59m
NWH	30.56		390	18229		0/325	20891/39120	46.60%		28183	19.76%		15.28m

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of Top Gun: Maverick's current tickets sold versus that final number.

 

T-8 Adjusted Comp

	%		Sold T-8	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
BW	153.33		171	3473		0/151	19486/22959	15.13%		9196	60.57%		21.19m
TG:M (adj)	---		335	5325		0/253	29858/35183	15.14%		---	---		---

ADJUSTMENT NOTE:  TG:M (adj) is the seats sold that does not include theaters that had unreliable data in their seat maps that that point in BW's track.

COMP NOTE: The BW comp has been adjusted to reflect the absence of Ontario theaters in the DOM market during BW's pre-sale run (what would normally be the comp/0.955).

 

Tuesday Sales:       1635/2477 [66.01% sold] [+145 tickets]
Thursday Sales:    3935/34538 [11.39% sold] [+220 tickets]
    
Regal:       664/10285  [6.46% sold]
Matinee:    263/4385  [6.00% | 4.72% of all tickets sold]

 

===

 

NOTE: The BW comp shifted a bit due to some theaters coming back into the track at that point in BW's pre-sales.  The sole remaining holdout comes back at T-7, meaning all comps will be unadjusted again.

 

Top Gun: Maverick Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-7 days and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	1	0	271	31366	37309	5943	15.93%

 

Total Showings Added Today	3
Total Seats Added Today	294
Total Seats Added Today	373

 

T-7 Comps

	%		Sold T-7	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
Batsy	114.69		206	5182		0/297	31608/36790	14.09%		11757	50.55%		24.77m
DSMoM	47.33		467	12557		0/353	30123/42680	29.42%		21117	28.14%		17.04m
NWH	31.82		445	18674		0/325	20446/39120	47.74%		28183	21.09%		15.91m
BW	155.82		151	3814		0/177	21748/25562	14.92%		9196	0.00%		21.54m

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of Top Gun: Maverick's current tickets sold versus that final number.

COMP NOTE: The BW comp has been adjusted to reflect the absence of Ontario theaters in the DOM market during BW's pre-sale run (what would normally be the comp/0.955).

 

Tuesday Sales:       1748/2477   [70.57% sold] [+113 tickets]
Thursday Sales:    4195/34832 [12.04% sold] [+260 tickets]
    
Regal:       706/10285  [6.86% sold]
Matinee:    272/4385   [6.20% | 4.58% of all tickets sold]

 

Edited May 21, 2022 by Porthos

[M37]

RE: Downton frontloading

 

One trend I've noted is the post-pandemic market, likely due to a couple of factors, is that the olds have finally gotten on board with buying tickets in advance. Can no longer count on an older-skewing film to have good walk-up sales.

 

On 5/18/2022 at 12:02 PM, keysersoze123 said:

Downtown Abbey 

Wednesday - 9439/38761 123063.59 418 shows

Thursday - 10228/110113 140903.46 810 shows

Friday - 23505/415789 288716.67 2939 shows

 

Question is if this would be very front loaded. If not I think it will have fairly a good OW.  At worst I can see this open in high teens. 

 

Data from a couple days ago, and while that looks like a very good Thu/Fri sales ratio, thought it might be a bit of a mirage, given the age skew the late (7PM) preview start, pushing sales to Friday daytime. Did a spot check Downton sales in the Tampa/St Pete market for Friday

 

Matinee	1,285
Evening	980
Total	2,265
Mat %	56.7%

Also, it was fairly obvious for which showings had been put on sale a while go and had healthy sales, and which ones were added later (this week), having very few

 

One more note: this very well may be old news, but just in case not ... for those of you who track sales manually, noticed today that the Fandango App gives an option to Check Seats, allowing one to scroll through the sales for an entire set of shows at a given location on a single window.

 

 

[YM!]

@Shawn and the BOP team really said go big or go home with the Lightyear prediction. 

 

$90m-$120m OW/$300m-$415m

[ImNotRacistAtAll]

3 minutes ago, YourMother said:

@Shawn and the BOP team really said go big or go home with the Lightyear prediction. 

 

$90m-$120m OW/$300m-$415m

I could see a 90-100M OW

[Sandro Mazzola]

1 hour ago, M37 said:

RE: Downton frontloading

 

One trend I've noted is the post-pandemic market, likely due to a couple of factors, is that the olds have finally gotten on board with buying tickets in advance. Can no longer count on an older-skewing film to have good walk-up sales.

 

 

Data from a couple days ago, and while that looks like a very good Thu/Fri sales ratio, thought it might be a bit of a mirage, given the age skew the late (7PM) preview start, pushing sales to Friday daytime. Did a spot check Downton sales in the Tampa/St Pete market for Friday

 

Matinee	1,285
Evening	980
Total	2,265
Mat %	56.7%

Also, it was fairly obvious for which showings had been put on sale a while go and had healthy sales, and which ones were added later (this week), having very few

 

One more note: this very well may be old news, but just in case not ... for those of you who track sales manually, noticed today that the Fandango App gives an option to Check Seats, allowing one to scroll through the sales for an entire set of shows at a given location on a single window.

 

 

Weren't the female olds pretty handy at prebuying tickets Mem? It's the old men that are way more walk up friendly.