The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread (December 2021 - July 2023)

[M37]

So it looks like all 3 of @Inceptionzq's tracking markets sold as many in last day as the previous two days combined

 

If that trend holds, should expect +15.5K/119.2K total from Alpha update later tonight

[ZackM]

 

Jurassic World: Dominion Alpha Chain Premiere Night Seat Report: T-3 days
	Last Day	2 Days Ago	3 Days Ago	4 Days Ago	5 Days Ago
Showings Added	186	0	6	0	16
Seats Added	20,751	0	508	0	1,137
Seats Sold	12,055	8,750	6,658	6,123	4,138
6/6/2022	Theaters	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Pct. Sold
Total	428	4,549	115,916	789,743	14.68%
% of Seats Sold	Sellouts	90%+	80%+	70%+	60%+
# of Showings	0	2	18	97	237
ATP
$17.28

 

 

Jurassic World: Dominion Comps
	Top Gun: Maverick		The Batman		Dr. Strange MoM		Net
	Unweighted	Weighted	Unweighted	Weighted	Unweighted	Weighted
D0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
T-0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
T-1	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
T-2	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
T-3	$14.1	$13.2	$9.6	$9.2	$9.8	$10.4	$10.6
T-4	$14.0	$13.1	$9.4	$8.9	$9.4	$10.0	$10.2
T-5	$13.8	$12.9	$9.0	$8.5	$9.1	$9.6	$9.9
T-6	$13.8	$12.9	$8.7	$8.2	$8.7	$9.3	$9.6
T-7	$13.8	$12.9	$8.4	$7.9	$8.4	$8.9	$9.3
T-8	$13.9	$13.0	$8.1	$7.7	$8.3	$8.8	$9.2
T-9	$13.8	$12.9	$7.9	$7.5	$8.1	$8.6	$9.0
T-10	$13.9	$13.0	$7.8	$7.3	$8.0	$8.5	$8.9
T-11	$13.9	$13.1	$7.6	$7.2	$7.8	$8.3	$8.8
T-12	$14.0	$13.2	$7.5	$7.1	$7.7	$8.2	$8.7
T-13	$14.2	$13.4	$7.5	$7.1	$7.6	$8.1	$8.6

 

[Alex SciChannel]

22 hours ago, keysersoze123 said:

It needs a ratio of at least 1.5x. I was thinking at least 10K today and tomorrow it will add bunch of shows and does close to 15K. 

 

Edited June 7, 2022 by Alex SciChannel

[Cooper Legion]

29 minutes ago, M37 said:

should expect +15.5K/119.2K total from Alpha update later tonight

 

4 minutes ago, ZackM said:

12,055

You can find encouraging signs in Sacto, but the mtc1 numbers for this thing just aren’t doing real takeoff

[Ryan Reynolds]

JWD under The Batman OW possible ?

[ZackM]

10 minutes ago, Legion and Thunder said:

 

You can find encouraging signs in Sacto, but the mtc1 numbers for this thing just aren’t doing real takeoff

If it makes you feel any better, Friday did 21k today.

[Alex SciChannel]

22 minutes ago, ZackM said:

If it makes you feel any better, Friday did 21k today.

Backloading is a good sign, right?

[Porthos]

40 minutes ago, Legion and Thunder said:

 

You can find encouraging signs in Sacto, but the mtc1 numbers for this thing just aren’t doing real takeoff

 

I mean, Sacto might just really like dinos.

 

Then again, they liked fighter jets more than the MTCs would have suggested, so... ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

 

===

 

FWIW, I am intentionally NOT using 20m+ CBMs as my main comps (though I do have SC, BW and TGM which acted like a CBM locally as a sort of control for bad reception) unlike some other folks as I just don't think it'll follow the pattern of CBMs.  If I were using those and not using the NTTDs and F9s of the world, I think most of my comps would be in the mid-teens like BW and TGM, though I haven't run the numbers to see for sure.

 

Not that it'd matter that much as they'd all converge-ish in the end, with maybe a two to three million dollar spread (ignoring the obvious outlier comps).

Edited June 7, 2022 by Porthos

[keysersoze123]

^^

At least on the last day you would have to compare it to 20m grossers if you are predicting it to gross 20m. Pre-sales trend can be different but ultimate math must be driven by raw data. Of course yours is still a very small sample relative to overall alpha or MTC2. but it seems representative of broader country for some reason. So try to get as many comps as possible. 

 

On Alpha number today, its ok. Not horribly bad or anything. One thing to note is my updates for Venom 2 happened late evening PST as opposed to Zack updating it 4-5 hours earlier. His update yesterday was just below 104K but it finished the day at 106K. now its at 118K and hopefully will finish the day at around 122K. But Venom 2 got huge boost with surprising RT positive reviews that boosted its PS even more tomorrow onwards. it had another 60% increase which which means we need Zack's next update at ~ 138K (20K). At least 18K is required. Let us see how things go tomorrow. 

 

MTC2 run from yesterday evening(and ended this morning) is at 85781. Everything points high teens to me(~ 17-19m). I had assumed 8x as optimal internal multi considering very early previews. But JWD might go higher(closer to 9 than 8). So 150-170m with strong final presales/walkups is my prediction. Let us see how the reactions for the movie go and if TGM has any impact. 

Edited June 7, 2022 by keysersoze123
fixed typos

[Menor the Destroyer]

7 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

On Alpha number today, its ok. Not horribly bad or anything. One thing to note is my updates for Venom 2 happened late evening PST as opposed to Zack updating it 4-5 hours earlier. His update yesterday was just below 114K but it finished the day at 116K. now its at 118K and hopefully will finish the day at around 122K. But Venom 2 got huge boost with surprising RT positive reviews that boosted its PS even more tomorrow onwards. it had another 60% increase which which means we need Zack's next update at ~ 138K (20K). At least 18K is required. Let us see how things go tomorrow. 

 

The time difference was something I considered as well but that shouldn't make more than like 1k difference in daily pace. 18 seems about right as it likely would've needed a real explosion today to go for higher. Still am surprised as the Alpha trend from Thu-Sat kinda seemed to point to bigger Sun and Mon bumps to me. 

Edited June 7, 2022 by Menor Reborn

[Eric Prime]

23 hours ago, Eric the Last Dinosaur said:

Jurassic World: Dominion Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-4 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	134	2717	23705	11.46%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 217

 

Comp

1.939x of F9 T-4 (13.77M)

1.904x of Venom 2 T-4 (22.09M)

2.057x of No Time to Die T-4 (12.96M)

0.997x of Top Gun 2 T-4 (19.2M)

Jurassic World: Dominion Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-3 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	140	3110	24443	12.72%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 393

 

Comp

1.921x of F9 T-3 (13.64M)

1.768x of Venom 2 T-3 (20.51M)

1.995x of No Time to Die T-3 (12.57M)

1.015x of Top Gun 2 T-3 (19.55M)

 

Well...it's doing better than Top Gun 2 now.

[Eric Prime]

Minions: The Rise of Gru Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-24 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	120	38	26275	0.14%

 

Comp

0.218x of Sonic the Hedgehog 2 T-24 (1.36M)

 

I have only this comp to go off of...and it's not really a good comp for a movie like this...fun. 🙃

[Porthos]

2 minutes ago, Eric the Last Dinosaur said:

Minions: The Rise of Gru Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-24 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	120	38	26275	0.14%

 

Comp

0.218x of Sonic the Hedgehog 2 T-24 (1.36M)

 

I have only this comp to go off of...and it's not really a good comp for a movie like this...fun. 🙃

 

Yeah, not many great comps for it.  Planning on using Sonic 2 and GBA, but I'm not expecting either to be so hot given the lack of an upfront demand plus being 24 days out.

[keysersoze123]

35 minutes ago, Menor Reborn said:

The time difference was something I considered as well but that shouldn't make more than like 1k difference in daily pace. 18 seems about right as it likely would've needed a real explosion today to go for higher. Still am surprised as the Alpha trend from Thu-Sat kinda seemed to point to bigger Sun and Mon bumps to me. 

I just dont want to be all negative. As I said friday PS being ahead so much gives it some hope. If walkups are good as we all expect it should have a decent OW. Not as much as what BOP is predicting but if it beats FK I would consider it a win. 

[Porthos]

Minions 2 Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-24 and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	163	24356	24424	68	0.28%

 

Total Seats Sold Today

68

 

	%		Sold Day 1	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
GB:A	34.17		199	199		0/104	15788/15987	1.24%		9196	0.74%		1.54m
Sonic 2	37.36		182	182		0/73	11083/11265	1.62%		5847	1.16%		2.34m

 

Regal:        5/5129  [0.10% sold]
Matinee:    0/2080  [0.00% | 0.00% of all tickets sold]

 

===

 

How'd I get talked into this, again?  I blame @Shawn, personally.

 

Anyway, even though I know this is gonna be backloaded as all heck, and it's 24+ days of presales, this still seems a little on the soft side for a start.  Very likely to just compile this on my home sheet nightly and only start posting it here when it gets interesting.  In for a penny, in for a pound though, so I will at least be tracking it nightly on my home sheet even if I don't report it here.

 

[Porthos]

On 6/5/2022 at 11:39 PM, Porthos said:

 

Jurassic World Dominion Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-4 and counting

 

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	224	22664	27932	5268	18.86%

 

Total Seats Sold Today

649

 

T-4 Unadjusted Comp

	%		Sold T-4	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
BW	113.90		305	4625		0/193	22688/27313	16.93%		9196	57.29%		15.74m
SC	218.95		261	2406		0/113	15205/17611	13.66%		5847	90.10%		19.27m
NTTD	309.34		157	1703		0/145	20757/22460	7.58%		3737	140.97%		19.18m
Dune	394.90		130	1334		0/79	10936/12270	10.87%		2915	180.72%		20.14m
TG:M	73.88		476	7130		0/271	30179/37309	19.11%		11474	45.91%		14.23m

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of Jurassic World: Dominon's current tickets sold versus that final number.

 

T-4 Adjusted Comp

	%		Sold T-4	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
F9	273.37		200	1806		0/89	11678/13484	13.39%		4407	112.03%		20.32m
JWD (adj)	---		586	4937		0/198	19581/24518	20.14%		---	---		---

ADJUSTMENT NOTE:  JWD (adj) is the seats sold that does not include theaters that had unreliable data in their seat maps that that point in F9's track.

COMP NOTE: Both the F9 and the BW comp have been adjusted to reflect the absence of Ontario theaters in the DOM market during pre-sale runs of those films (what would normally be the comp/0.955).

 

***EXTREMELY UNOFFICIAL COMPS***

JW3 = 1.74444x JW2 at the same sources of tracking at T-4 [24.02m adj]
JW3 = 3.2856x KotM at the same sources of tracking at T-4 [18.63m adj]
JW3 = 0.93132x TLK at the same sources of tracking at T-4 [19.28m adj]

NOTE: Comp has been adjusted downward by 10% to account for differences in comping in Sacto from 2018/19 to 2022.

 

Regal:       908/6145  [14.78% sold]
Matinee:    315/1535  [20.52% | 5.98% of all tickets sold]

 

Jurassic World Dominion Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-3 and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	281	26773	32836	6063	18.46%

 

Total Showings Added Today	57
Total Seats Added Today	4904
Total Seats Sold Today	795

 

T-3 Unadjusted Comp

	%		Sold T-3	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
BW	119.02		469	5094		0/193	22219/27313	18.65%		9196	65.93%		16.45m
SC	221.20		335	2741		0/156	19111/21852	12.54%		5847	103.69%		19.47m
NTTD	322.33		178	1881		0/157	21272/23153	8.12%		3737	162.24%		19.98m
Dune	402.32		173	1507		0/92	11672/13179	11.43%		2915	207.99%		20.52m
TG:M	78.19		624	7754		1/324	33685/41439	18.71%		11474	52.84%		15.06m

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of Jurassic World: Dominon's current tickets sold versus that final number.

 

T-3 Adjusted Comp

	%		Sold T-3	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
F9	273.34		257	2063		0/122	15198/17261	11.95%		4407	127.96%		20.32m
JWD (adj)	---		702	5639		0/255	23797/29436	19.16%		---	---		---

ADJUSTMENT NOTE:  JWD (adj) is the seats sold that does not include theaters that had unreliable data in their seat maps that that point in F9's track.

COMP NOTE: Both the F9 and the BW comp have been adjusted to reflect the absence of Ontario theaters in the DOM market during pre-sale runs of those films (what would normally be the comp/0.955).

 

***EXTREMELY UNOFFICIAL COMPS***

JW3 = 1.70414x JW2 at the same sources of tracking at T-3 [23.47m adj]
JW3 = 3.45105x KotM at the same sources of tracking at T-3 [19.57m adj]
JW3 = 0.9292x TLK at the same sources of tracking at T-3 [19.23m adj]

NOTE: Comp has been adjusted downward by 10% to account for differences in comping in Sacto from 2018/19 to 2022.

 

Regal:      1043/8106  [12.87% sold]
Matinee:    367/2120  [17.31% | 6.05% of all tickets sold]

 

===

 

Yep.  Sacramento likes its dinos, alright.

[filmlover]

Lightyear tickets officially on sale.

[Eric Prime]

I know showtimes aren't finalized, but Lightyear is getting only one IMAX showing in the afternoon in almost every location, while Dolby is only getting about two or three in the afternoon. The Regals with PLFs don't even have Lightyear playing on IMAX or 4DX or RPX on Thursday. I'm sure they will add more if Dominion beefs it and theaters think there is more value in having it run all day, but like...man, this really shows just how much theaters need to get more IMAX/Dolby/RPX/4DX in their establishments like yesterday.

[M37]

8 hours ago, keysersoze123 said:

^^

At least on the last day you would have to compare it to 20m grossers if you are predicting it to gross 20m. Pre-sales trend can be different but ultimate math must be driven by raw data. Of course yours is still a very small sample relative to overall alpha or MTC2. but it seems representative of broader country for some reason. So try to get as many comps as possible.

Funny you should say that ... while I personally lack the time (and programming skills) to do full scale tracking of my own, have gotten decent at analyzing data, particularly this data. So I've been doing a bit of a deep dive into @Porthos's tacking numbers, trying to suss out some broader trends. As you noted, Sacto rarely "misses" on the tracking, in that it has a decently low variability given that its just a one market sample. Here's the ratio of total preview gross to the final count for the Sacto market over the past year (ratio is essentially the inverse of market share, so a lower number is an overindex, higher is underindex)

Title	Previews	Sacto Ratio
Fast 9	$7,100,000	$1,583
Black Widow	$13,200,000	$1,435
Shang-Chi	$8,800,000	$1,487
Venom 2	$11,600,000	$1,479
NTTD	$6,300,000	$1,612
Halloween	$4,900,000	$2,002
Dune	$5,100,000	$1,750
Eternals	$9,500,000	$1,482
SM: NWH	$50,000,000	$1,774
Batman	$21,600,000	$1,837
Strange MoM	$36,000,000	$1,705
Top Gun 2	$19,300,000	$1,682

The mean and median are both around $1650x, but if you look at the last 4 major releases, once MTCs had starting rolling our their premium pricing for new releases, it jumps to $1750x

 

I know a lot of people have thrown out Venom as a potential comp for a final week explosion for JWD - myself included - but after looking at the data more closely, I think @charlie Jatinder is right: Venom had a really unusual PS pattern, and isn't a good comp for anything. The U-curve was extremely shallow, it never really had a big sales burst and then slow down, but just kept ramping up until the explosion in the last week

 

I prefer to look at in these sales numbers is not total or daily pace, but the growth rate, that is by what % that total is increasing each day. Below are the growth rates from Sacto. However, due to the variability of a small sample size, I'm use a rolling 3-day average rather single day growth. Can see here that Venom is just in a class by itself, only really somewhat matched by Shang-Chi, which had a very short PS window, but even then Venom just blew past it starting around T-6/5. Shown in both a traditional graph

And log scale due to exponential growth

 

So if Venom isn't the comp, and clearly CBMs are not ... what is? From looking over all the data: Fast 9. Not only is the release date similar, but the F&F franchise is a similarly known IP but with an expected late & walk-up sales surge.  Looking at the graphs above, the pattern of sales and growth rate are very similar, with JWD pacing ahead of F9 in recent Sacto updates, but lower in other markets. Also could see a better MTC2 & 3 share, with Alpha a little weaker

 

9 hours ago, keysersoze123 said:

 

MTC2 run from yesterday evening(and ended this morning) is at 85781. Everything points high teens to me(~ 17-19m). I had assumed 8x as optimal internal multi considering very early previews. But JWD might go higher(closer to 9 than 😎. So 150-170m with strong final presales/walkups is my prediction. Let us see how the reactions for the movie go and if TGM has any impact. 

 

Agree this is how the data appears to be trending - to a not quite as inflated Thursday, higher IM than the 8x I think most have penciled in. Again, very similar to F9, which posted a 9.87x, actually better than Fate of Furious 9.50x on Easter weekend in 2017. Could be that what adult audience TG2 is capturing is more from the potential Thursday number than from the weekend, where teens and families should come out in stronger numbers. Sacto's trendline points to a final total of 12K-12.5K for JWD, which would suggest $21-$22M nationally, though with an expected lower ATP and Alpha sales being softer, the ratio probably won't be that high; an $18-$20M range seems more likely to me ($17M is still possible, just don't think it will go that low), $160-$180 OW

[filmlover]

1 hour ago, Eric the Last Dinosaur said:

I know showtimes aren't finalized, but Lightyear is getting only one IMAX showing in the afternoon in almost every location, while Dolby is only getting about two or three in the afternoon. The Regals with PLFs don't even have Lightyear playing on IMAX or 4DX or RPX on Thursday. I'm sure they will add more if Dominion beefs it and theaters think there is more value in having it run all day, but like...man, this really shows just how much theaters need to get more IMAX/Dolby/RPX/4DX in their establishments like yesterday.

To be fair, the 6:00 exclusive early shows next Wednesday are only in large screen formats.