The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread (December 2021 - July 2023)

[misterpepp]

2 hours ago, BestPicturePlutoNash said:

The opening for Us made it the biggest opening original film ever, I think?

 

It's the biggest for live-action, I believe? The Secret Life of Pets was original and opened to $104 million.

[charlie Jatinder]

On 6/24/2022 at 7:01 PM, charlie Jatinder said:

Minions: The Rise of Gru Harkins T-7 Days

Shows	Capacity	Sold	% Sold	Gross	ATP
301	76,400	981	1.28%	$11,708	$11.93

 

Good day of +145.

Minions: The Rise of Gru Harkins T-5 Days

Shows	Capacity	Sold	% Sold	Gross	ATP
302	76,850	1,392	1.81%	$16,610	$11.93

 

Lightyear had 2059 sold at T-4, that doesn't seem like will be reached. 

[charlie Jatinder]

On 6/24/2022 at 6:44 PM, charlie Jatinder said:

Thor: Love and Thunder Harkins T-14 Days

Shows	Capacity	Sold	% Sold	Gross	ATP
421	105,617	10,182	9.64%	$130,806	$12.85

 

Solid day with 403 new sales. With reactions drop, hoping for +500 today.

 

Comps

0.55x DSitMoM T-14 days - $19.8M (+$2.5M in last 7 days)

 

Way it is going should hit $30M+ in final comps, may even near $35M. 

 

Thor: Love and Thunder Harkins T-12 Days

Shows	Capacity	Sold	% Sold	Gross	ATP
421	105,695	11,030	10.44%	$141,124	$12.79

 

Added 362 sales today. Could have been better but fine. Should be able to reach 11.8K target set for it.

[Porthos]

On 6/25/2022 at 12:14 AM, Porthos said:

 

Thor: Love and Thunder Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-13 days and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	228	24786	31600	6814	21.56%

 

Total Seats Sold Today

265

 

T-13 Unadjusted Comps

	%		Sold T-13	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
NWH	42.10		406	16185		0/308	21367/37552	43.10%		28183	24.18%		21.05m
Batman	160.75		152	4239		0/285	31225/35464	11.95%		11757	57.96%		34.72m
MoM	64.19		216	10615		0/351	31821/42436	25.01%		21117	32.27%		23.11m

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of Love and Thunder's current tickets sold versus that final number.

 

T-13 Adjusted Comps

	%		Sold T-13	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
BW	241.38		77	2564		0/117	16570/19134	13.40%		9196	74.10%		33.36m
L&T (adj)			240	6189		0/188	20114/26303	23.53%

ADJUSTMENT NOTE:  L&T (adj) is the seats sold that does not include theaters that had unreliable data in their seat maps that that point in BW's track.

COMP NOTE: The BW comp has been adjusted to reflect the absence of Ontario theaters in the DOM market during BW's pre-sale run (what would normally be the comp/0.955)

 

Regal:        676/4831  [13.99% sold]
Matinee:    318/2566  [12.39% | 4.67% of all tickets sold]

 

 

Thor: Love and Thunder Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-12 days and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	228	24618	31600	6982	22.09%

 

Total Seats Sold Today

168

 

T-12 Unadjusted Comps

	%		Sold T-12	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
NWH	42.23		347	16532		0/308	21020/37552	44.02%		28183	24.77%		21.12m
Batman	160.95		99	4338		0/285	31126/35464	12.23%		11757	59.39%		34.77m
MoM	64.43		221	10836		0/351	31600/42436	25.53%		21117	33.06%		23.20m

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of Love and Thunder's current tickets sold versus that final number.

 

T-12 Adjusted Comps

	%		Sold T-12	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
BW	238.19		94	2658		0/119	16602/19260	13.80%		9196	75.92%		32.92m
L&T (adj)			142	6331		0/188	19972/26303	24.07%

ADJUSTMENT NOTE:  L&T (adj) is the seats sold that does not include theaters that had unreliable data in their seat maps that that point in BW's track.

COMP NOTE: The BW comp has been adjusted to reflect the absence of Ontario theaters in the DOM market during BW's pre-sale run (what would normally be the comp/0.955)

 

Regal:        690/4831  [14.28% sold]
Matinee:    317/2566  [12.35% | 4.54% of all tickets sold]

[Porthos]

On 6/25/2022 at 12:15 AM, Porthos said:

 

 

Minions 2 Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-6 days and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	169	24355	25372	1017	4.01%

 

Total Seats Sold Today

189

 

T-6 Comp

	%		Sold T-6	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
GB:A	127.44		62	798		0/115	16561/17359	4.60%		9196	11.06%		5.73m
Sonic 2	97.41		130	1044		0/92	11893/12937	8.07%		5847	17.39%		6.09m

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of Minions 2's current tickets sold versus that final number.

  
Regal:        79/5238  [1.51% sold]
Matinee:    68/2536  [2.68% | 6.69% of all tickets sold]

 

Minions 2 Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-5 days and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	169	24218	25372	1154	4.55%

 

Total Seats Sold Today

137

 

T-5 Comp

	%		Sold T-5	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
GB:A	125.43		122	920		0/117	16629/17549	5.24%		9196	12.55%		5.64m
Sonic 2	97.06		145	1189		0/92	11748/12937	9.19%		5847	19.74%		6.07m

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of Minions 2's current tickets sold versus that final number.

  
Regal:        92/5238  [1.76% sold]
Matinee:    76/2536  [3.00% | 6.59% of all tickets sold]

[XXRDJisDoctorDoom]

7 hours ago, BestPicturePlutoNash said:

The opening for Us made it the biggest opening original film ever, I think?

 

5 hours ago, datpepper said:

 

It's the biggest for live-action, I believe? The Secret Life of Pets was original and opened to $104 million.

Avatar > Us, $77M vs $71M

[ZackM]

11 hours ago, ZackM said:

I think Alpha may have changed something with their seat maps because my current run is returning all errors.

Looks like it’s a compatibility issue in one of the libraries I’m using.  Probably the result of a chrome update.  I’ll try to figure it out tonight.

[BruiseCruise]

nvm

Edited June 26, 2022 by BruiseCruise

[Cheddar Please]

delete please Edited June 26, 2022 by Cheddar Please

[katnisscinnaplex]

On 6/25/2022 at 8:39 AM, katnisscinnaplex said:

Santikos Tracking

 

By format

 

Day	Movie	Format	Shows	New	Sold	True Cap	% Sold	ATP	Gross
T-0	Elvis (Sat)	PLF	14	55	898	3,074	29.21%	$13.41	$12,039.24
		Standard	68	11	1,608	7,605	21.14%	$10.23	$16,456.81
	Total		82	66	2,506	10,679	23.47%	$11.37	$28,496.05

 

By matinee

 

Day	Movie	Mat	Shows	New	Sold	True Cap	% Sold	ATP	Gross
T-0	Black Phone (Sat)	N	43	742	742	4,309	17.22%	$11.95	$8,863.80
		Y	30	486	486	3,005	16.17%	$8.82	$4,284.36
	Total		73	1,228	1,228	7,314	16.79%	$10.71	$13,148.16
T-0	Elvis (Sat)	N	38	1,001	1,001	4,921	20.34%	$13.32	$13,337.41
		Y	44	1,505	1,505	5,758	26.14%	$10.07	$15,158.64
	Total		82	2,506	2,506	10,679	23.47%	$11.37	$28,496.05

 

Just gonna start off with a disclaimer again: I do not have good comps for these movies and this is a small sample size so take these numbers with a grain of salt.  If you want better representation then step up and start tracking another area!

 

Alright, back to business.  Elvis ATP has dropped a little with the majority of presales being for matinee shows.  I'm sure that's expected with the older crowd, but don't be surprised if we get a good early number for Elvis that doesn't come to fruition.  Black Phone only had a few PLF shows for previews, but none for the weekend.

 

Elvis Sat T-0 comps

 - TG2 - .28x (10.64m)

 - Batman - .219x (9.48m)

- JW3 - .162x (7.59m)

 

Black Phone Sat T-0 comps

 - TG2 - .137x (5.22m)

 - Batman - .107x (4.64m)

- JW3 - .079x (3.72m)

 

Comps adjusted by Friday comps ratios (using ECs latest estimates)

 

Elvis Sat T-0 comps

 - TG2 - 8.17m

 - Batman - 7.92m

- JW3 - 8.09m

 

Prediction for Saturday: 8.1m

 

Black Phone Sat T-0 comps

 - TG2 - 6.33m

 - Batman - 6.14m

- JW3 - 6.27m

 

Prediction for Saturday: 6.25m

Santikos Tracking

 

By format

 

Day	Movie	Format	Shows	New	Sold	True Cap	% Sold	ATP	Gross
T-0	Elvis (Sun)	PLF	14	779	779	3,074	25.34%	$13.00	$10,127.32
		Standard	70	1,553	1,553	7,638	20.33%	$9.67	$15,017.27
	Total		84	2,332	2,332	10,712	21.77%	$10.78	$25,144.59

 

By matinee

 

Day	Movie	Mat	Shows	New	Sold	True Cap	% Sold	ATP	Gross
T-0	Black Phone (Sun)	N	47	362	362	4,597	7.87%	$11.83	$4,283.41
		Y	31	578	578	3,084	18.74%	$8.81	$5,090.53
	Total		78	940	940	7,681	12.24%	$9.97	$9,373.94
T-0	Elvis (Sun)	N	41	581	581	5,073	11.45%	$13.30	$7,726.93
		Y	43	1,751	1,751	5,639	31.05%	$9.95	$17,417.66
	Total		84	2,332	2,332	10,712	21.77%	$10.78	$25,144.59

 

Even more unbalanced towards matinees today.  Likely expected, just never really noticed before. With the lower ATP, the presales gross dropped 11.7% from yesterday for Elvis.

 

Direct sales comps

 

Elvis Sun T-0 comps

 - TG2 - .282x (10.34m)

 - Batman - .234x (7.99m)

- JW3 - .175x (6.77m)

 

Black Phone Sun T-0 comps

 - TG2 - .114x (4.17m)

 - Batman - .094x (3.22m)

- JW3 - .071x (2.73m)

 

Adjusted comps (avg Fri/Sat ratios)*

 

Elvis Sun T-0 comps

 - TG2 - 9.89m

 - Batman - 8.45m

- JW3 - 9.04m

 

Prediction for Sunday: 9.13m

 

Black Phone Sun T-0 comps

 - TG2 - 5.38m

 - Batman - 4.6m

- JW3 - 4.92m

 

Prediction for Sunday: 4.97m

 

*Using current estimates for adjustments

[Tinalera]

12 hours ago, Legion and Thunder said:

$0 daily pace, $0 cume, $0 previews. Rip taika

What a bust.....

[Tinalera]

Minions 2

SW/Toronto Ontario T-5

 

	# theatre	#show	Seats Sold	Seats Rem	Ttl seat	Percent
Thurs	17	86	400	23474	23874	0.0167
Fri	15	84	544	22072	22616	0.024

 

 

Comp 

x2.155 Lightyear (43.1 Million Canada/US) (1.6 Million Canada only)

 

BTW just random comment-does anyone in their tracking find a theatre that just consistently sells little to nothing? Like to the point you say to the theatre "why do I even track you??!" lol

                            

Edited June 26, 2022 by Tinalera

[Taruseth]

10 hours ago, BestPicturePlutoNash said:

I was thinking 50 for 35 would still be good. It's an original IP. Would be biggest original opening since 2019 (1917 in Jan 2020 isn't original). The opening for Us made it the biggest opening original film ever, I think? And blew past expectations since it was Peele's Get Out followup and heavily marketed as a horror. It's been 3 years and Us had very divisive audience reception which probably has diminished Peele's brand slightly. 

 

7 hours ago, datpepper said:

 

It's the biggest for live-action, I believe? The Secret Life of Pets was original and opened to $104 million.

 

It wasn't, there is this very tiny movie that gets a sequel in December that opened about 6m higher 10 years earlier.

List - I think - goes as follows:

#1 SLOP: 104.4m

#2 Inside Out: 90.4m

#3 Avatar: 77m

#4 Zootopia: 75.1m

#5 US 71.1m

#6 The Incredibles: 70.5m

#7 Finding Nemo: 70.3m

#8 The Day after tomorrow: 68.7m (?)

#9 Up: 68.1m

#10 Bruce Almighty: 68.0m

#11 Brave: 66.3m

 

(I ignored movies that are Sequels - book movies (HP, LOTR etc.) - redone movies (Lion King live action) - movies based on other things (Transformers) and movies based on historic events (300) and the Passion of Christ (83.8m)).

Kinda shocking how many of those are animation movies.

 

[Tinalera]

Thor4

SW/Toronto Ontario t-12 (no comps)

 

thor4	# theatre	#show	Seats Sold	Seats Rem	Ttl seat	Percent
Thurs	20	148	6318	24042	30360	0.2081
Fri	20	280	3945	36180	40125	0.0983

[katnisscinnaplex]

On 6/23/2022 at 8:35 AM, katnisscinnaplex said:

Movie	Day	Area	TC	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Black Phone	T-0	Jax	6	23	56	179	2,416	7.41%
		Phx	7	26	150	303	3,479	8.71%
		Ral	7	17	41	194	1,842	10.53%
	Total		20	66	247	676	7,737	8.74%
Elvis	T-0	Jax	7	33	66	376	5,349	7.03%
		Phx	7	24	152	399	2,800	14.25%
		Ral	8	21	75	378	2,146	17.61%
	Total		22	78	293	1,153	10,295	11.20%
Malcolm List	T-7	Jax	5	8	0	0	859	0.00%
		Phx	4	7	3	3	574	0.52%
		Ral	3	4	1	1	191	0.52%
	Total		12	19	4	4	1,624	0.25%
Minions 2	T-7	Jax	7	104	8	127	17,171	0.74%
		Phx	6	66	18	146	12,191	1.20%
		Ral	8	59	19	172	7,630	2.25%
	Total		21	229	45	445	36,992	1.20%
Nope	T-28	Jax	7	51	2	46	8,591	0.54%
		Phx	6	20	1	74	4,344	1.70%
		Ral	8	25	0	54	3,411	1.58%
	Total		21	96	3	174	16,346	1.06%
Thor 4	T-14	Jax	7	112	48	1,526	17,265	8.84%
		Phx	6	111	60	1,954	18,041	10.83%
		Ral	8	63	56	1,734	8,326	20.83%
	Total		21	286	164	5,214	43,632	11.95%

 

Black Phone (Thu) T-0 comps

 - Candyman - 1.31x (2.48m)

 - Firestarter - 4.57x (1.71m)

 - Resident Evil (Tue) - 2.22x (2.08m)

 - Halloween Kills - .373x (1.81m)

 - Antlers - 5.73x (2.12x)

 - X - 3.03x (1.33m)

 - Men - 4.48x (1.89m)

 

Bumping up to 1.8m for Thursday; with EA it should be easily above 2m

 

Elvis (Thu) T-0 comps

 - Dear Evan Hansen - 5.91x (3.55m)

 - F9 - .377x (2.68m)

 - Ghostbusters - .643x (2.67m)

 - Lost City (Thu) - 1.68x (4.2m)

 - Father Stu - 5.17x (2.84m)

 

Minions 2 T-7 comps

 - Sonic 2 - .809x (4.03m)

 - FB3 - .375x (2.25m)

 - Ghostbusters (Thu) - .77x (3.2m)

 - Shang-Chi - .381x (3.35m)

 

Nope T-28 comp

 - JW-D - missed

 

Thor 4 T-14 comps

 - Dr. Strange 2 - .528x (19m)

 - Batman (Thu) - 1.79x (31.51m)

 - No Way Home - .317x (15.83m)

 - Black Widow - 2.75x (36.32m)

 - JW3 - 2.04x (36.76m)

Movie	Day	Area	TC	Shows	New*	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Malcolm List	T-4	Jax	5	8	2	2	859	0.23%
		Phx	4	8	0	3	606	0.50%
		Ral	3	4	0	1	191	0.52%
	Total		12	20	2	6	1,656	0.36%
Minions 2	T-4	Jax	7	104	50	177	17,171	1.03%
		Phx	6	66	77	223	12,191	1.83%
		Ral	8	59	42	214	7,630	2.80%
	Total		21	229	169	614	36,992	1.66%
Nope	T-25	Jax	7	51	8	54	8,591	0.63%
		Phx	6	20	9	83	4,344	1.91%
		Ral	8	25	5	59	3,411	1.73%
	Total		21	96	22	196	16,346	1.20%
Thor 4	T-11	Jax	7	112	229	1,755	17,265	10.17%
		Phx	6	111	249	2,203	18,041	12.21%
		Ral	8	63	279	2,013	8,326	24.18%
	Total		21	286	757	5,971	43,632	13.68%

*New sales since Thursday morning

 

Minions 2 T-4 comps

 - Sonic 2 - .793x (3.95m)

 - Encanto - 3.79x (5.68m)

 

Nope T-25 comp

 - JW-D - missed

 

Thor 4 T-11 comps

 - Dr. Strange 2 - .572x (20.59m)

 - Batman (Thu) - missed

 - No Way Home - .323x (16.17m)

 - Black Widow - 2.68x (35.36m)

 - JW3 - missed

[Eric Prime]

On 6/25/2022 at 10:57 AM, Eric Presley said:

Minions: The Rise of Gru Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-6 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	125	344	27571	1.25%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 28

 

Comp

2.991x of Jungle Cruise T-6 (8.07M)

0.370x of Sonic the Hedgehog 2 T-6 (2.31M)

0.945x of Lightyear T-6 (4.91M)

Minions: The Rise of Gru Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-5 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	125	423	27571	1.53%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 79

 

Comp

3.585x of Jungle Cruise T-5 (9.68M)

0.413x of Sonic the Hedgehog 2 T-5 (2.58M)

1.017x of Lightyear T-5 (5.29M)

[Eric Prime]

On 6/25/2022 at 11:01 AM, Eric Presley said:

Thor: Love and Thunder Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-13 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	185	5588	34527	16.18%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 229

 

Comp

0.378x of Spider-Man: No Way Home T-13 (18.9M)

1.124x of The Batman T-13 (24.27M)

0.573x of Doctor Strange 2 T-13 (20.62M)

Thor: Love and Thunder Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-12 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	185	5791	34527	16.77%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 203

 

Comp

0.379x of Spider-Man: No Way Home T-12 (18.93M)

1.136x of The Batman T-12 (24.54M)

0.585x of Doctor Strange 2 T-12 (21.07M)

[Eric Prime]

On 6/25/2022 at 11:02 AM, Eric Presley said:

Nope Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-27 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	62	181	12632	1.43%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 4

Nope Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-26 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	62	181	12632	1.43%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 0

[Porthos]

4 hours ago, Tinalera said:

BTW just random comment-does anyone in their tracking find a theatre that just consistently sells little to nothing? Like to the point you say to the theatre "why do I even track you??!" lol                           

 

Oh, yes. I have a couple of low-C grade tier theaters in the region.  Still can be useful though as when even they sell a decent number of tickets, that's a sure sign of a breakout incoming.

 

[Inceptionzq]

23 hours ago, Inceptionzq said:

Thor Love and Thunder Denver Thursday Showings

AMC Westminster 24

Total

1069

3809

28.07%

AMC Highlands Ranch 24

Total

1057

4985

21.20%

 

SEATS SOLD	SOLD PAST DAY	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD	THEATERS	SHOWINGS
4941	182	37793	13.07%	15	233

 

AMCs sold	3474
Cinemarks sold	703
Regals sold	409
Harkins sold	355

 

0.390x NWH T-12 (19.50M)

Thor Love and Thunder Denver Thursday Showings

AMC Westminster 24

Total

1104

3809

28.98%

AMC Highlands Ranch 24

Total

1088

4985

21.83%

 

SEATS SOLD	SOLD PAST DAY	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD	THEATERS	SHOWINGS
5051	110	37793	13.36%	15	233

 

AMCs sold	3553
Cinemarks sold	710
Regals sold	425
Harkins sold	363

 

0.652x Doctor Strange MoM T-11 (23.48M)

1.35x Batman T-11 (29.14M)

0.386x NWH T-11 (19.30M)

 

A bit behind Doctor Strange's pace. The past 3 day sales(T-14 to T-11) was 460 for DS and it is 424 for Thor.