The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread (December 2021 - July 2023)

[Legion Again]

Got Minion penciled in for very close to SC nums now. Oweek may beat lightyear total I suppose.

[romeross]

35 minutes ago, Legion and Thunder said:

Got Minion penciled in for very close to SC nums now. Oweek may beat lightyear total I suppose.

What is "SC"?

[Borobudur]

12 minutes ago, romeross said:

What is "SC"?

Shangchi

[M37]

4 hours ago, charlie Jatinder said:

Minions: The Rise of Gru Harkins T-3 Days

Shows	Capacity	Sold	% Sold	Gross	ATP
302	76,850	2,498	3.25%	$29,580	$11.84

 

+705 yesterday. Good day, almost par 735 of Lightyear. 

 

Comps

0.89x Lightyear T-3 days - $4.9M (adj for ATP $4.4M)

 

$6M is doable.

How much of that 734 for LY was EA? Thinking pace comparison is better with Thursday only totals rather than the full amount, given how non-family those EA shows likely skewed

 

Really can’t overstate the growth rate for Minions across all tracking samples since T-7. The closest comp I can find is … Jungle Cruise

[charlie Jatinder]

8 minutes ago, M37 said:

How much of that 734 for LY was EA? Thinking pace comparison is better with Thursday only totals rather than the full amount, given how non-family those EA shows likely skewed

 

Really can’t overstate the growth rate for Minions across all tracking samples since T-7. The closest comp I can find is … Jungle Cruise

nothing out of ordinary so far for it. JC sales were awful, this has better sales I think.

 

Edit: On checking data, JC had 245 sold in Harkins California T-2 days. Minions is 693 at the moment. That will point towards $7.7M with one day to spare. 

Edited June 28, 2022 by charlie Jatinder

[katnisscinnaplex]

23 hours ago, katnisscinnaplex said:

Movie	Day	Area	TC	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Malcolm List	T-3	Jax	5	8	0	2	859	0.23%
		Phx	4	8	0	3	606	0.50%
		Ral	3	4	1	2	191	1.05%
	Total		12	20	1	7	1,656	0.42%
Minions 2	T-3	Jax	7	104	40	217	17,171	1.26%
		Phx	6	67	75	298	12,268	2.43%
		Ral	8	59	85	299	7,630	3.92%
ATP: 13.73	Total		21	230	200	814	37,069	2.20%
Nope	T-24	Jax	7	51	4	58	8,591	0.68%
		Phx	6	20	4	87	4,344	2.00%
		Ral	8	25	3	62	3,411	1.82%
	Total		21	96	11	207	16,346	1.27%
Thor 4	T-10	Jax	7	112	56	1,811	17,265	10.49%
		Phx	6	111	83	2,286	18,041	12.67%
		Ral	8	63	55	2,068	8,326	24.84%
ATP: 14.61	Total		21	286	194	6,165	43,632	14.13%

 

Minions 2 T-3 comps

 - Sonic 2 - .92x (4.58m)

 - Encanto - 4.26x (6.39m)

 - Lightyear Thu - 1.121x (5.49m)*

 

*assuming 4.9m true Thu for Lightyear

 

Nope T-24 comp

 - JW-D - .107x (1.92m)

 

Thor 4 T-10 comps

 - Dr. Strange 2 - .576x (20.75m)

 - Batman (Thu) - missed

 - No Way Home - .325x (16.27m)

 - Black Widow - 2.64x (34.896m)

 - JW3 - 2.026x (36.47m)

Movie	Day	Area	TC	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Malcolm List	T-2	Jax	5	8	0	2	859	0.23%
		Phx	4	7	0	3	574	0.52%
		Ral	4	6	2	4	292	1.37%
	Total		13	21	2	9	1,725	0.52%
Minions 2	T-2	Jax	7	104	122	339	17,171	1.97%
		Phx	6	72	86	384	12,636	3.04%
		Ral	8	67	140	439	8,475	5.18%
ATP: 14.07	Total		21	243	348	1,162	38,282	3.04%
Nope	T-23	Jax	7	51	2	60	8,591	0.70%
		Phx	6	20	6	93	4,344	2.14%
		Ral	8	25	3	65	3,411	1.91%
	Total		21	96	11	218	16,346	1.33%
Thor 4	T-9	Jax	7	112	76	1,887	17,265	10.93%
		Phx	6	114	82	2,368	18,369	12.89%
		Ral	8	68	90	2,158	8,676	24.87%
ATP: 14.61	Total		21	294	248	6,413	44,310	14.47%

 

There are only a few comps that even get Malcolm's List to 100k.  Most are in the 60k range.

 

Minions 2 T-2 comps

 - Sonic 2 - 1.08x (5.398m)

 - Encanto - 4.8x (7.2m)

 - Lightyear Thu - 1.27x (6.236m)*

 - Jungle Cruise - 3.54x (9.265m)

 

*assuming 4.9m true Thu for Lightyear

 

Nope T-23 comp

 - JW-D - .109x (1.95m)

 - Eternals - .286x (2.71m)

 - Black Widow - .2x (2.65m)

 

Thor 4 T-9 comps

 - Dr. Strange 2 - .582x (20.96m)

 - Batman (Thu) - 1.79x (31.56m)

 - No Way Home - .33x (16.51m)

 - Black Widow - 2.61x (34.52m)

 - JW3 - 1.987x (35.76m)

[katnisscinnaplex]

23 hours ago, katnisscinnaplex said:

Santikos Tracking

 

By format

 

Day	Movie	Format	Shows	New	Sold	True Cap	% Sold	ATP	Gross
T-10	Thor 4	PLF	57	173	3,696	11,672	31.67%	$15.90	$58,748.00
		Standard	87	172	2,144	11,439	18.74%	$11.88	$25,477.84
	Total		144	5,840	5,840	23,111	25.27%	$14.42	$84,225.84
T-3	Minions	PLF	14	186	186	3,344	5.56%	$13.75	$2,557.22
		Standard	38	476	476	6,051	7.87%	$10.81	$5,143.82
	Total		52	662	662	9,395	7.05%	$11.63	$7,701.04

 

 

By matinee

 

Day	Movie	Mat	Shows	New	Sold	True Cap	% Sold	ATP	Gross
T-10	Thor 4	N	103	268	4,708	16,531	28.48%	$15.07	$70,928.72
		Y	41	77	1,132	6,580	17.20%	$11.75	$13,297.12
	Total		144	345	5,840	23,111	25.27%	$14.42	$84,225.84
T-3	Minions	N	29	386	386	5,166	7.47%	$12.94	$4,994.73
		Y	23	276	276	4,229	6.53%	$9.81	$2,706.31
	Total		52	662	662	9,395	7.05%	$11.63	$7,701.04

*New Thor sales since Saturday morning

 

Minions T-3 comps

 - Sonic 2 Thu - .886x (4.41m)

 - Lightyear Thu - 1.445x (7.08m)

 

Thor T-10 comps

 - No Way Home - missed (~19.8m)

 - DS2 - missed (~20.65m)

 - Batman + EA - missed (~35.89m)

Santikos Tracking

 

By format

 

Day	Movie	Format	Shows	New	Sold	True Cap	% Sold	ATP	Gross
T-2	Minions	PLF	27	134	320	6,128	5.22%	$14.12	$4,519.83
		Standard	65	252	728	9,596	7.59%	$10.75	$7,827.80
	Minions Total		92	386	1,048	15,724	6.66%	$11.78	$12,347.63
T-9	Thor 4	PLF	57	93	3,789	11,672	32.46%	$15.89	$60,216.86
		Standard	87	74	2,218	11,439	19.39%	$11.86	$26,313.10
	Thor 4 Total		144	167	6,007	23,111	25.99%	$14.40	$86,529.96

 

By matinee

 

Day	Movie	Mat	Shows	New	Sold	True Cap	% Sold	ATP	Gross
T-2	Minions	N	58	252	638	9,929	6.43%	$13.14	$8,385.47
		Y	34	134	410	5,795	7.08%	$9.66	$3,962.16
	Minions Total		92	386	1,048	15,724	6.66%	$11.78	$12,347.63
T-9	Thor 4	N	103	130	4,838	16,531	29.27%	$15.05	$72,816.92
		Y	41	37	1,169	6,580	17.77%	$11.73	$13,713.04
	Thor 4 Total		144	167	6,007	23,111	25.99%	$14.40	$86,529.96

 

Solid day for Minions; added 40 shows and +58% in tickets sold

 

Minions T-2 comps

 - Sonic 2 Thu - 1.043x (5.19m)

 - Lightyear Thu - 1.84x (9m)

 - Bob's Burgers - 4.87x (7.3m)

 

Thor T-9 comps

 - No Way Home - missed (~20.02m)

 - DS2 - missed (~20.87m)

 - Batman + EA - missed (~35.65m)

[Borobudur]

Is there a EA for Minion 2? 

[Tinalera]

Minions Rise of Gru

SW/Toronto Ontario t-3

Minions Rise of Gru

SW/Toronto Ontario T-3

 

	# theatre	#show	Seats Sold	Seats Rem	Ttl seat	Percent
Thurs	17	86	788	23205	23993	0.0328
Fri	15	84	1186	21419	22605	0.0524

 

Comp 

X2.700 Lightyear(54 million US/Canada, 2.0 Million Canada only.)

 

Surely Minions isn't going to do Lightyears opening weekend on its opening Friday....that seems to be rather much (I mean thats tracking for like 150 opening weekend) (but  if it DID, you were surely be hearing it from the halls of Disney come Monday morning)

 

 

[John Marston]

Remember when we used to get articles from the trades about how “this blockbuster” is tracking to make this amount several weeks before the movie releases? How come we don’t have those anymore?

[filmlover]

25 minutes ago, John Marston said:

Remember when we used to get articles from the trades about how “this blockbuster” is tracking to make this amount several weeks before the movie releases? How come we don’t have those anymore?

They became a casualty of the unsure environment throughout the pandemic era, perhaps.

[Mojoguy]

58 minutes ago, Tinalera said:

Surely Minions isn't going to do Lightyears opening weekend on its opening Friday....that seems to be rather much (I mean thats tracking for like 150 opening weekend) (but  if it DID, you were surely be hearing it from the halls of Disney come Monday morning)

At this point, matching DM3 numbers ($73M OW and $264M DOM) would be a huge win. It really helps there hasn't been a real successful family movie since Sonic and Bad guys, Lightyear is flopping.

Edited June 28, 2022 by Mojoguy

[kswiston]

2 hours ago, Mojoguy said:

At this point, matching DM3 numbers ($73M OW and $264M DOM) would be a huge win. It really helps there hasn't been a real successful family movie since Sonic and Bad guys, Lightyear is flopping.

 

From the perspective of moviegoers, Bad guys doesn't really register either. Lightyear passes its total in a few days. Lightyear cost 3x as much, so financially it flopped. Audience wise, they are basically the same. 

 

Sonic is the only thing approaching a blockbuster for kids a bit too young for Marvel/DC since theatres returned. And that was 3 months ago. All of this seems to be benefiting Minions 2. 

[M37]

13 minutes ago, kswiston said:

 

From the perspective of moviegoers, Bad guys doesn't really register either. Lightyear passes its total in a few days. Lightyear cost 3x as much, so financially it flopped. Audience wise, they are basically the same. 

 

Sonic is the only thing approaching a blockbuster for kids a bit too young for Marvel/DC since theatres returned. And that was 3 months ago. All of this seems to be benefiting Minions 2. 

Not to mention, even the bigger releases recently have been less kid friendly than comparables: Batman was dark, MoM was “scary”, and of courseJWD. That’s why Bad Guys had such good legs, really only option for kids <10 between Sonic and LY. Thor will pick up some of slack next week, but there’s a bit of a starved audience here, not unlike Black Phone and horror 

[Alex SciChannel]

3 hours ago, filmlover said:

They became a casualty of the unsure environment throughout the pandemic era, perhaps.

Now trade estimates come out the week of release I presume. Elvis was actually in line with those estimates which were at 30M.

[Alex SciChannel]

https://variety.com/2022/film/box-office/box-office-minions-rise-of-gru-opening-weekend-estimate-1235304893/

 

Trades are saying $65M - $75M 4-day for Minions 2.

Edited June 28, 2022 by Alex SciChannel

[Ronin46]

15 minutes ago, Alex SciChannel said:

https://variety.com/2022/film/box-office/box-office-minions-rise-of-gru-opening-weekend-estimate-1235304893/

 

Trades are saying $65M - $75M 3-day for Minions 2.

 

No they are not. They are saying 65-75 for the extended holiday period,   4 DAY.

 

Ouch if that is accurate. Thats more like 55-60 for the 3 day. I think the numbers here indicate a little better than that at this stage. 

[TwoMisfits]

13 minutes ago, Ronin46 said:

 

No they are not. They are saying 65-75 for the extended holiday period,   4 DAY.

 

Ouch if that is accurate. Thats more like 55-60 for the 3 day. I think the numbers here indicate a little better than that at this stage. 

 

So, ummm, about my under $60M for Minions from a few weeks ago.  Should I be more or less confident now that the trades are in agreement with me?

 

Edit to add buzz: My Cinemarks are giving this 3 screens each with one theater with 1 XD (the other XD screen at that theater to Maverick for the whole weekend).

 

Not a bad set, but not an absolutely amazing one, either...

Edited June 28, 2022 by TwoMisfits

[Ronin46]

4 minutes ago, TwoMisfits said:

 

So, ummm, about my under $60M for Minions from a few weeks ago.  Should I be more or less confident now that the trades are in agreement with me?

 

Edit to add buzz: My Cinemarks are giving this 3 screens each with one theater with 1 XD (the other XD screen at that theater to Maverick for the whole weekend).

 

Not a bad set, but not an absolutely amazing one, either...

 

I think its looking like 7M in previews (no EA?) so a 10 multiplier would not be outrageous from just Thur previews. So I think around 70M is what it looks like with more walkups and a young crowd and adjusted for lower ATP.

[Porthos]

3 minutes ago, Ronin46 said:

 

I think its looking like 7M in previews (no EA?) so a 10 multiplier would not be outrageous from just Thur previews. So I think around 70M is what it looks like with more walkups and a young crowd and adjusted for lower ATP.

 

No EA, but does have 2pm previews.