The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread (December 2021 - July 2023)

[Inceptionzq]

On 6/27/2022 at 3:11 PM, Inceptionzq said:

Thor Love and Thunder Denver Thursday Showings

AMC Westminster 24

Total

1133

3809

29.75%

AMC Highlands Ranch 24

Total

1142

4985

22.91%

 

SEATS SOLD	SOLD PAST DAY	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD	THEATERS	SHOWINGS
5282	231	37793	13.98%	15	233

 

AMCs sold	3718
Cinemarks sold	721
Regals sold	454
Harkins sold	389

 

1.49x Top Gun Maverick T-10 (28.71M)

0.666x Doctor Strange MoM T-10 (23.98M) [+187]

0.394x NWH T-10 (19.70M)

 

Not sure what propelled this increase, but a really good day.

Thor Love and Thunder Denver Thursday Showings

AMC Westminster 24

Total

1167

3809

30.64%

AMC Highlands Ranch 24

Total

1176

4985

23.59%

 

SEATS SOLD	SOLD PAST DAY	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD	THEATERS	SHOWINGS
5458	176	37793	14.44%	15	233

 

AMCs sold	3814
Cinemarks sold	751
Regals sold	488
Harkins sold	405

 

1.46x Top Gun Maverick T-9 (28.41M)

0.662x Doctor Strange MoM T-9 (23.82M) [+317]

1.36x Batman T-9 (29.32M)

0.397x NWH T-9 (19.85M)

[Alex SciChannel]

Is it me or are the trades underprojecting more and more lately? There used to be a discernable difference between studio predictions and trade predictions. Now they're indistinguishable. 

[Tinalera]

Thor4

SW/Toronto Ontario t-10(no comps)

 

thor4	# theatre	#show	Seats Sold	Seats Rem	Ttl seat	Percent
Thurs	20	259	6798	24307	32455	0.1731
Fri	20	280	4492	35636	40128	0.1119

[Inceptionzq]

On 6/27/2022 at 3:17 PM, Inceptionzq said:

Thor Love and Thunder Megaplex

 

T-10 Thursday(190 showings): 5247(+345)/47563

1.28x Top Gun Maverick T-10 (24.61M)

0.599x Doctor Strange MoM T-10 (21.57M) [+240]

0.283x NWH T-10 (14.14M)

 

T-11 Friday(258 showings): 2879(+107)/67683

0.730x Top Gun Maverick T-11 (23.91M)

0.575x Doctor Strange MoM T-11 (31.46M) [+206]

0.212x NWH T-11 (15.24M)

 

T-12 Saturday(264 showings): 1527(+104)/69227

0.557x Top Gun Maverick T-12 (21.17M)

0.520x Doctor Strange MoM T-12 (30.08M) [+138]

0.204x NWH T-12 (15.07M)

 

T-13 Sunday(253 showings): 587(+37)/68879

0.880x Top Gun Maverick T-13 (32.28M)

0.822x Doctor Strange MoM T-13 (31.97M) [+17]

0.332x NWH T-13 (21.33M)

Thor Love and Thunder Megaplex

 

T-9 Thursday(190 showings): 5503(+256)/47563

1.25x Top Gun Maverick T-9 (24.06M)

0.605x Doctor Strange MoM T-9 (21.78M) [+338]

1.18x Batman T-9 (25.48M)

0.288x NWH T-9 (14.41M)

 

T-10 Friday(258 showings): 3095(+216)/67683

0.741x Top Gun Maverick T-10 (24.25M)

0.575x Doctor Strange MoM T-10 (31.46M) [+376]

1.48x Batman T-10 (51.93M)

0.219x NWH T-10 (15.72M)

 

T-11 Saturday(264 showings): 1622(+95)/69227

0.548x Top Gun Maverick T-11 (20.83M)

0.512x Doctor Strange MoM T-11 (29.59M) [+234]

1.48x Batman T-11 (64.14M)

0.203x NWH T-11 (15.02M)

 

T-12 Sunday(253 showings): 620(+33)/68879

0.834x Top Gun Maverick T-12 (30.61M)

0.789x Doctor Strange MoM T-12 (30.68M) [+72]

2.32x Batman T-12 (79.28M)

0.332x NWH T-12 (21.31M)

[Inceptionzq]

On 6/27/2022 at 3:23 PM, Inceptionzq said:

Thor Love and Thunder Alamo Drafthouse

 

T-10 Thursday(173 showings): 12741(+336)/25797 ATP: $15.21

0.741x Doctor Strange MoM T-10 (26.68M) [+364]

0.506x NWH T-10 (25.28M)

 

T-11 Friday(234 showings): 10627(+448)/34674 ATP: $15.27

0.692x Doctor Strange MoM T-11 (37.85M) [+437]

0.477x NWH T-11 (34.34M)

 

T-12 Saturday(243 showings): 10082(+420)/36321 ATP: $14.72

0.625x Doctor Strange MoM T-12 (36.11M) [+472]

0.474x NWH T-12 (35.06M)

 

T-13 Sunday(224 showings): 5544(+257)/33628 ATP: $14.28

0.689x Doctor Strange MoM T-13 (26.81M) [+340]

0.510x NWH T-13 (32.70M)

Thor Love and Thunder Alamo Drafthouse

 

T-9 Thursday(188 showings): 13087(+346)/27516 ATP: $15.22

0.738x Doctor Strange MoM T-9 (26.55M) [+557]

1.35x Batman T-9 (23.77M, only using Thurs gross of 17.6M)

0.511x NWH T-9 (25.56M)

 

T-10 Friday(234 showings): 11063(+436)/34674 ATP: $15.27

0.692x Doctor Strange MoM T-10 (37.87M) [+623]

1.13x Batman T-10 (39.45M)

0.485x NWH T-10 (34.87M)

 

T-11 Saturday(244 showings): 10438(+356)/36457 ATP: $14.72

0.626x Doctor Strange MoM T-11 (36.18M) [+541]

1.09x Batman T-11 (46.96M)

0.473x NWH T-11 (34.94M)

 

T-12 Sunday(224 showings): 5782(+238)/33628 ATP: $14.31

0.682x Doctor Strange MoM T-12 (26.54M) [+431]

1.37x Batman T-12 (46.87M)

0.509x NWH T-12 (32.64M)

[M37]

9 hours ago, M37 said:

How much of that 734 for LY was EA? Thinking pace comparison is better with Thursday only totals rather than the full amount, given how non-family those EA shows likely skewed

 

Really can’t overstate the growth rate for Minions across all tracking samples since T-7. The closest comp I can find is … Jungle Cruise

Today (T-2 updates) should be day when Minions starts to separate from LY, the latter having been on sale for a full week and reaching the “bottom” of its extremely shallow U-curve

 

Penciling in an estimated 40-45% increase in overall sales from yesterday’s checkpoints, won’t be surprised if some tracking samples jump by 50% or more 

[Menor the Destroyer]

23 hours ago, Menor Reborn said:

Finally started working again. Data from last night, so about a 36-hour pace since the previous update. 

 

Thor Love and Thunder Marcus Theaters (T-11 EOD)

 

Theaters: 85

 

Thursday:

Showings: 885

Seats Sold: 22752/132387 (+1114)

 

Friday:

Showings: 1391

Seats Sold: 14161/209589 (+999)

 

Back to 24-hour pace (approximately)

 

Thor L&T Marcus (T-10)

Theaters: 85

 

Thursday:

Showings: 902 (+17)

Seats Sold: 23539/135392 (+687)

 

Friday:

Showings: 1395 (+4)

Seats Sold: 14760/209913 (+599)

 

Not an amazing pace imo. Looking at all the tracking samples it's starting to feel more and more like ~150s opening even with good WOM. DS2 had a crazy week and Thor will likely not make much ground in comps until Tuesday, and though I expect a good final couple of days, there is a limit to how high it can go after now showing too much positive momentum at the start of this week. Hopefully it proves me wrong, Minions is looking like a solid 70s OW but have not had a very exciting opening since Top Gun. 

 

 

 

[Borf the Borf]

How does Sunday box office perform historically on a Sunday when there a holiday like July 4t4h on a monday?   Any noticiabel change in patterns?  

[keysersoze123]

Thor MTC2 previews - 108186/524756 1533651.20 3276 shows // As of morning

 

~3800 tickets ~24 hours. I think its playing like low 20s at MTC2 but MTC1 is more optimistic. But its really weird that MTC2 is < half MTC1 in gross at this point(By my calc MTC is at 3.75m). Thinking 25-27m previews at this point. Plus friday PS is well below DS2 as well and so I am expecting closer to 5 than 6x multi at this point. 

 

That said let us see where things are in a week's time. Reviews could lead to big boost if it can have Ragnarok level reviews. 

[LegendaryBen]

6 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

Thor MTC2 previews - 108186/524756 1533651.20 3276 shows // As of morning

 

~3800 tickets ~24 hours. I think its playing like low 20s at MTC2 but MTC1 is more optimistic. But its really weird that MTC2 is < half MTC1 in gross at this point(By my calc MTC is at 3.75m). Thinking 25-27m previews at this point. Plus friday PS is well below DS2 as well and so I am expecting closer to 5 than 6x multi at this point. 

 

That said let us see where things are in a week's time. Reviews could lead to big boost if it can have Ragnarok level reviews. 

Thanks for Thor! There's still hope for it. Anything on Minions?

[keysersoze123]

13 minutes ago, LegendaryBen said:

Thanks for Thor! There's still hope for it. Anything on Minions?

I am trying to get the data. Hope to update it later this evening if the data is ready. 

[ZackM]

I've been busy, but this is from yesterday:

 

 

Thor: Love and Thunder Alpha Chain Premiere Night Seat Report: T-10 days
	Last Day	Previous 2 Days		4 Days Ago	5 Days Ago
Showings Added	0	20		18	0
Seats Added	0	2,525		2,406	0
Seats Sold	6,776	11,687		7,431	4,844
6/27/2022	Theaters	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Pct. Sold
Total	438	6,374	225,432	1,103,482	20.43%
% of Seats Sold	Sellouts	90%+	80%+	70%+	60%+
# of Showings	0	11	92	333	667
ATP
$17.04

 

[Alex SciChannel]

46 minutes ago, Borf the Borf said:

How does Sunday box office perform historically on a Sunday when there a holiday like July 4t4h on a monday?   Any noticiabel change in patterns?  

The last year where 4th of July fell on a Monday was 2016.

 

On Sunday...

Finding Dory fell -11%, Tarzan -7%, Purge -19%, Independence day 2 -5%, The BFG -13%, Central Intelligence -10%, The Shallows -12%, Conjuring 2 -15%

[krla]

34 minutes ago, Borf the Borf said:

How does Sunday box office perform historically on a Sunday when there a holiday like July 4t4h on a monday?   Any noticiabel change in patterns?  

https://www.the-numbers.com/box-office-chart/daily/2005/07/03

1	(1)	War of the Worlds	Paramount Pi…	$19,775,949	-15%		3,908	$5,060	$100,561,125	5
2	(2)	Batman Begins	Warner Bros.	$5,359,535	-6%	-38%	3,765	$1,424	$151,070,575	19
3	(3)	Mr. And Mrs. Smith	20th Century…	$3,439,443	-12%	-29%	2,985	$1,152	$143,931,499	24
4	(4)	Bewitched	Sony Pictures	$2,809,578	-14%	-47%	3,188	$881	$38,663,070	10
5	(5)	Herbie: Fully Loaded	Walt Disney	$2,665,357	-15%	-27%	3,521	$757	$35,149,843	12

 

https://www.the-numbers.com/box-office-chart/daily/2011/07/03

1	(1)	Transformers: Dark of the…	Paramount Pi…	$30,376,098	-12%		4,088	$7,431	$162,618,212	5
2	(2)	Cars 2	Walt Disney	$8,818,021	-7%	-48%	4,115	$2,143	$117,204,002	10
3	(3)	Bad Teacher	Sony Pictures	$4,932,854	-2%	-41%	3,049	$1,618	$59,952,563	10
4	(4)	Larry Crowne	Universal	$4,295,985	-9%		2,973	$1,445	$13,096,065	3
5	(5)	Super 8	Paramount Pi…	$2,759,094	-3%	-18%	3,088	$893	$108,465,245	24

 

https://www.the-numbers.com/box-office-chart/daily/2016/07/03

1	(1)	Finding Dory	Walt Disney	$13,277,242	-11%	-40%	4,305	$3,084	$372,166,778	17
2	(2)	The Legend of Tarzan	Warner Bros.	$11,786,208	-7%		3,561	$3,310	$38,527,856	3
3	(3)	The Purge: Election Year	Universal	$7,611,210	-19%		2,796	$2,722	$31,515,110	3
4	(5)	Independence Day: Resurgence	20th Century…	$5,869,939	-5%	-42%	4,091	$1,435	$72,876,039	10
5	(4)	The BFG	Walt Disney	$5,430,387	-13%		3,357	$1,618	$18,775,350	3

 

 

The Monday, July 4th drops;

 

https://www.the-numbers.com/box-office-chart/daily/2005/07/04

1	(1)	War of the Worlds	Paramount Pi…	$12,183,228	-38%		3,908	$3,118	$112,744,353	6
2	(2)	Batman Begins	Warner Bros.	$3,729,794	-30%	-7%	3,765	$991	$154,800,369	20
3	(3)	Mr. And Mrs. Smith	20th Century…	$2,150,975	-37%	-5%	2,985	$721	$146,082,474	25
4	(5)	Herbie: Fully Loaded	Walt Disney	$1,943,995	-27%	+2%	3,521	$552	$37,093,838	13
5	(4)	Bewitched	Sony Pictures	$1,919,943	-32%	-32%	3,188	$602	$40,583,013	11

 

https://www.the-numbers.com/box-office-chart/daily/2011/07/04

1	(1)	Transformers: Dark of the…	Paramount Pi…	$18,033,185	-41%		4,088	$4,411	$180,651,397	6
2	(2)	Cars 2	Walt Disney	$5,356,308	-39%	-23%	4,115	$1,302	$122,560,310	11
3	(4)	Larry Crowne	Universal	$3,002,730	-30%		2,973	$1,010	$16,098,795	4
4	(3)	Bad Teacher	Sony Pictures	$2,754,942	-44%	-31%	3,049	$904	$62,707,505	11
5	(5)	Super 8	Paramount Pi…	$1,604,911	-42%	+6%	3,088	$520	$110,070,156	25

 

https://www.the-numbers.com/box-office-chart/daily/2016/07/04

1	(1)	Finding Dory	Walt Disney	$9,619,207	-28%	-6%	4,305	$2,234	$381,785,985	18
2	(2)	The Legend of Tarzan	Warner Bros.	$8,054,549	-32%		3,561	$2,262	$46,582,405	4
3	(4)	Independence Day: Resurgence	20th Century…	$4,962,960	-15%	+31%	4,091	$1,213	$77,838,999	11
4	(3)	The Purge: Election Year	Universal	$4,624,185	-39%		2,796	$1,654	$36,139,295	4
5	(5)	The BFG	Walt Disney	$3,941,459	-27%		3,357	$1,174	$22,716,809	4

 

And then Tuesday drops, instead of increasing. 

 

I wonder if TGM can perform like (or better than) Independence Day Resurgence.

[keysersoze123]

Minions MTC1 Thursday Previews - 48520/782266 771457.14 4249 shows.

 

Really good day. Obviously Actual $ gross is lower due to child tickets. I am thinking 6-7m previews at this point. 

[bakedpotato]

What do folks think previews and OD will end up being for Minions? Maybe a bit ahead of Sonic 2? The comps look pretty favorable today.

[Menor the Destroyer]

On 6/27/2022 at 8:06 PM, Menor Reborn said:

Theaters: 85

 

Thursday:

Showings: 731(+118)

Seats Sold: 4459/108321 (+1256)

 

Friday:

Showings: 1308 (+415)

Seats Sold: 7908/182764 (+3449)

Minions 2 Marcus

 

Theaters: 85

 

Thursday:

Showings: 889 (+158)

Seats Sold: 6158/125328 (+1699)

 

Friday:

Showings: 1596 (+288)

Seats Sold: 11627/215337 (+3719)

[M37]

3 hours ago, Borf the Borf said:

How does Sunday box office perform historically on a Sunday when there a holiday like July 4t4h on a monday?   Any noticiabel change in patterns?  

Put a little bit of math behind this question. If you assume that Saturday was unaffected (which may be a flawed assumption and potential impacts may not be uniform across genres/audiences), here is estimated bump by day and total across the 4 day weekend (for films out at least 2 weeks)

 

July 4th Weekend 2016: Actual vs Saturday Drop Baseline Expectation
Title	Fri	Sat	Sun	Mon	4-Day Total
Finding Dory	7.90%	0.00%	11.40%	73.90%	14.30%
Central Intelligence	5.70%	0.00%	27.40%	99.90%	19.70%
Conjuring 2	2.90%	0.00%	20.60%	29.30%	9.50%
Now You See Me 2	4.80%	0.00%	21.90%	83.20%	17.70%
X-Men Apocalypse	4.90%	0.00%	31.60%	86.60%	19.30%
TMNT	10.10%	0.00%	14.90%	86.30%	17.10%
Average	6.05%	0.00%	21.30%	76.53%	16.27%

 

Friday gets a small bump across the board, as more people have that day off, slightly better for family movies.  Sunday appears to be actually less favorable (smaller bump) to family movies (LY and Minions this year), but a bigger boost to adult films which have better nighttime numbers (so Black Phone, TGM, JWD and Elvis to some degree). Mon is a big boost for everything ... except a night-time heavy horror movie that now has to compete with the fireworks

 

 

Edited June 29, 2022 by M37

[ZackM]

Not a great day for Thor4.

 

 

Thor: Love and Thunder Alpha Chain Premiere Night Seat Report: T-9 days
	Last Day	2 Days Ago	Previous 2 Days		5 Days Ago
Showings Added	53	0	20		18
Seats Added	6,501	0	2,525		2,406
Seats Sold	6,017	6,776	11,687		7,431
6/28/2022	Theaters	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Pct. Sold
Total	438	6,427	231,449	1,109,983	20.85%
% of Seats Sold	Sellouts	90%+	80%+	70%+	60%+
# of Showings	0	13	105	353	699
ATP
$17.01

 

[M37]

On 6/27/2022 at 7:45 PM, keysersoze123 said:

Minions 2 MTC1 Thursday - 33229/718506 537457.17 3787 shows

 

I have no idea what the pace is as its just 1st run. But good show count for sure. 

 

45 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

Minions MTC1 Thursday Previews - 48520/782266 771457.14 4249 shows.

 

Really good day. Obviously Actual $ gross is lower due to child tickets. I am thinking 6-7m previews at this point. 

+46% 😉

 

Given the pace in other samples, think that number at least triples by Thursday.  I'm still sitting on $7-$8M range, honestly feeling like that's more likely to be too low than too high