The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread (December 2021 - July 2023)

[BestPicturePlutoNash]

Just now, PenguinHyphy said:

 

I have no idea who you are 

Your last post is literally from March quoting me and saying "You hail Northman as the pinnacle of auteur cinema"

[ThomasNicole]

Just now, BestPicturePlutoNash said:

Your last post is literally from March quoting me and saying "You hail Northman as the pinnacle of auteur cinema"

Which would be totally understandable.

[ThomasNicole]

Very happy that Black Phone seems to be overperforming, really hoping for 25M.

 

Really like Derrickson, i think Sinister is very underrated, and i felt really bad that he left DS2 clearly sad, so i was rooting for him to get a hit out of this, beyond the good reviews. 

 

Anything over 30M for Elvis is good, i would prefer a 4 in front of it, but that's ok.

[PenguinHyphy]

5 minutes ago, BestPicturePlutoNash said:

Your last post is literally from March quoting me and saying "You hail Northman as the pinnacle of auteur cinema"

 

Oh, you are a butt hurt Eggers fanboy who got mad at me for calling a bomb a bomb. I hope you have started spending way less time whining on the internet and way more time supporting your precious "auteurs" in theaters            

Edited June 24, 2022 by PenguinHyphy

[BestPicturePlutoNash]

Just now, PenguinHyphy said:

 

Oh, you are a butt hurt Eggers fanboy who got mad at me for calling a bomb a bomb. I hope you have started spending less time whining on the internet and way more time supporting your precious "auteurs" in theaters 

You signed in whining about Nope. And aren't you the one from other forums and Reddit always whining about Dua Lipa? lol

[Cap]

30 minutes ago, PenguinHyphy said:

I honestly do not get the hysteria about Nope in here. The theater that I go to, AMC Lincoln Square in New York, already has almost 75% occupancy for the 7:30 pm IMAX on Thursday night a month before release. That seems pretty great to me.

 

As someone who spent a lot of time tracking Lincoln Square before the pandemic, it is misguided to compare their Friday tickets sales to really any other theater (With the exception of maybe like the Arclight or Disney springs). The IMAX is the premium screen not only in NYC but Pretty much the entire East Coast. It’s a pilgrimage theater. People go specifically to see films at that IMAX screen, and it tends to get the most devoted of fans rushing out.

 

 

18 minutes ago, PenguinHyphy said:

 

Oh, you are a butt hurt Eggers fanboy who got mad at me for calling a bomb a bomb. I hope you have started spending way less time whining on the internet and way more time supporting your precious "auteurs" in theaters            

 

We absolutely don’t do this here. So I would refrain from this type of behavior when you post going forward.

[charlie Jatinder]

1 hour ago, keysersoze123 said:

Black Phone MTC1 Thursday Previews - 52635/186950 747709.75 1470 shows

 

I must admit that is a fantastic final day for the movie. I am thinking ~ 2.7m previews + whatever it did with early shows that I did not track. 

I will go with $3M from these. Excellent.

[Porthos]

On 6/20/2022 at 12:54 AM, Porthos said:

 

Nope Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-32 days and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	84	13556	13704	148	1.08%

 

Total Seats Sold Since Thursday

23

 

Regal:     21/3969  [0.53% sold]
Matinee:     7/863  [0.81% | 4.73% of all tickets sold]

 

Nope Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-28 days and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	84	13528	13704	176	1.28%

 

Total Seats Sold Since Sunday

28

 

Regal:     29/3969  [0.73% sold]
Matinee:      7/863  [0.81% | 3.98% of all tickets sold]

[Porthos]

23 hours ago, Porthos said:

 

Thor: Love and Thunder Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-15 days and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	228	25246	31600	6354	20.11%

 

Total Seats Sold Today

150

 

T-15 Unadjusted Comps

	%		Sold T-15	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
NWH	41.62		628	15268		0/298	21158/36426	41.92%		28183	22.55%		20.81m
Batman	161.97		111	3923		0/280	30855/34778	11.28%		11757	54.04%		34.99m
MoM	62.24		182	10209		0/351	32227/42436	24.06%		21117	30.09%		22.41m

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of Love and Thunder's current tickets sold versus that final number.

 

T-15 Adjusted Comps

	%		Sold T-15	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
BW	242.71		108	2381		0/117	16753/19134	12.44%		9196	69.10%		33.55m
L&T (adj)			138	5779		0/188	20524/26303	21.97%

ADJUSTMENT NOTE:  L&T (adj) is the seats sold that does not include theaters that had unreliable data in their seat maps that that point in BW's track.

COMP NOTE: The BW comp has been adjusted to reflect the absence of Ontario theaters in the DOM market during BW's pre-sale run (what would normally be the comp/0.955)

 

Regal:          611/4831  [12.65% sold]
Matinee:    288/2566  [11.22% | 4.53% of all tickets sold]

 

 

Thor: Love and Thunder Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-14 days and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	228	25051	31600	6549	20.72%

 

Total Seats Sold Today

195

 

T-14 Unadjusted Comps

	%		Sold T-14	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
NWH	41.50		511	15779		0/298	20647/36426	43.32%		28183	23.24%		20.75m
Batman	160.24		164	4087		0/285	31380/35467	11.52%		11757	55.70%		34.61m
MoM	62.98		190	10399		0/351	32037/42436	24.51%		21117	31.01%		22.67m

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of Love and Thunder's current tickets sold versus that final number.

 

T-14 Adjusted Comps

	%		Sold T-14	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
BW	239.20		106	2487		0/117	16647/19134	13.00%		9196	71.22%		33.06m
L&T (adj)			170	5949		0/188	20354/26303	22.62%

ADJUSTMENT NOTE:  L&T (adj) is the seats sold that does not include theaters that had unreliable data in their seat maps that that point in BW's track.

COMP NOTE: The BW comp has been adjusted to reflect the absence of Ontario theaters in the DOM market during BW's pre-sale run (what would normally be the comp/0.955)

 

Regal:         637/4831  [13.19% sold]
Matinee:    295/2566  [11.50% | 4.50% of all tickets sold]

[Porthos]

23 hours ago, Porthos said:

 

Minions 2 Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-8 days and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	168	24614	25316	702	2.77%

 

Total Seats Sold Today

105

 

T-8 Comp

	%		Sold T-8	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
GB:A	103.39		99	679		0/116	16677/17356	3.91%		9196	7.63%		4.65m
Sonic 2	86.13		102	815		0/92	12122/12937	6.30%		5847	12.01%		5.38m

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of Minions 2's current tickets sold versus that final number.

  
Regal:       54/5238  [1.03% sold]
Matinee:    27/2536  [1.06% | 3.85% of all tickets sold]

 

Minions 2 Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-7 days and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	169	24544	25372	828	3.26%

 

Total Showings Added Today	1
Total Seats Added Today	56
Total Seats Sold Today	126

 

T-7 Comp

	%		Sold T-7	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
GB:A	112.50		57	736		0/116	16620/17356	4.24%		9196	9.00%		5.06m
Sonic 2	90.59		99	914		0/92	12023/12937	7.07%		5847	14.16%		5.66m

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of Minions 2's current tickets sold versus that final number.

  
Regal:        68/5238  [1.30% sold]
Matinee:    46/2536  [1.81% | 5.56% of all tickets sold]

[titanic2187]

1 hour ago, keysersoze123 said:

Elvis MTC1 Thursday Previews - 48977/224751 744392.69 1589 shows

 

it does benefit by having Dolby shows. But walkups were meh today. it was way ahead of BP at the start of the day and now it looks like finishing lower. However I have to say my run was 2 hours earlier and it might have sold bit more after that but its most probably selling fewer tickets with higher ATP. 

 

Thinking 3.2m previews with early shows. But I expected better walkups today. 

 

BP obviously benefited from being a horror that generally sell well in evening. On the other hand, Elvis skewed older and it’s target audience tend to avoid night hour show so I expect 5pm starting time push demand to actual weekend itself but yeah, at this point $40m start is a very challenging goal and $20m start for BP is becoming easy and easier. 

[DAJK]

My local/regional comps in Canada, based on tonight’s numbers, would peg Elvis at a 34-36M weekend, and Black Phone at 21M.

 

That being said, this IS Canada (where horror is usually weaker than in the US, and Elvis may not be quite as big as it would be in, say, the South).

[BestPicturePlutoNash]

Biggest OW for Hanks (live-action)

 

1. Da Vinci Code (May 06)- 77m

2. Angels and Demons: Da Vinci Code 2 (May 09)- 46.2m

3. Sully (Sept 16)- 35m

4. Saving Private Ryan (July 98)- 30.5m

5. Catch Me If You Can (Christmas 02)- 30m

6. Cast Away- (Dec 00)- 28.8m

7. Captain Phillips (Oct 13)- 25.7m

8. Apollo 13 (June 95)- 25.3m

9. Forrest Gump (July 94)- 24.4m

10. Road To Perdition (July 02)- 22m

 

Hopefully Elvis stays above 35m. 

 

Would have been nice for closer to 40 which is similar to pre-COVID adult summer programmers like Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (41m) and Ocean's Eight (41.6m). 

[CJohn]

Elvis tanked here. It was 3rd yesterday and it will drop to 4th over the weekend. Expected since he isn't an icon here but still sad.

[LegendaryBen]

4 hours ago, charlie Jatinder said:

I will go with $3M from these. Excellent.

If that holds, I wouldn't rule out a 10m true Fri. Walkups have been much kinder to it than Elvis.

[filmlover]

Long Range Box Office Forecast & 2022’s Upcoming Calendar
(as of 6/23/22)

Release Date	Title	3-Day (FSS) Opening Low/High Range	Pinpoint % Chg from Last Week	Domestic Total Low/High Range	Pinpoint % Chg from Last Week	Distributor
7/1/2022	Minions: The Rise of Gru	$65,000,000 – $77,000,000		$195,000,000 – $260,000,000		Universal Pictures
7/8/2022	Thor: Love and Thunder	$145,000,000 – $190,000,000	-4%	$327,000,000 – $459,000,000	-4%	Disney / Marvel Studios
7/15/2022	Mrs. Harris Goes to Paris					Focus Features
7/15/2022	Paws of Fury: The Legend of Hank	$9,000,000 – $14,000,000		$28,000,000 – $45,000,000		Paramount Pictures
7/15/2022	Where the Crawdads Sing	$17,000,000 – $26,000,000		$48,000,000 – $85,000,000		Sony / 3000 Pictures
7/22/2022	Nope	$45,000,000 – $65,000,000		$110,000,000 – $190,000,000		Universal Pictures

 

Long Range Box Office Forecast: Jordan Peele's Nope - Boxoffice (boxofficepro.com)

[CJohn]

July 4th falls on a Monday. What is the effect on the weekend/week for movies?

[Borobudur]

1 minute ago, CJohn said:

July 4th falls on a Monday. What is the effect on the weekend/week for movies?

2016 has the same calendar and all movies seem to hold pretty good that weekend. As long as July 4th is not on weekend, box office is safe. 

[Jonwo]

Is it remotely surprising that Elvis isn't a conventional biopic. 

[filmlover]

6 minutes ago, CJohn said:

July 4th falls on a Monday. What is the effect on the weekend/week for movies?

Sunday is basically going to behave like a second Saturday since it's a 4-day holiday.