The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread (December 2021 - July 2023)

[keysersoze123]

Thor love and thunder MTC2 Thursday - 104301/524649 1479741.61 3280 shows. 

 

It grew by 14.3K+ over past 5 days. Nothing crazy and its pacing around 55% of DS2 here. Definitely weaker than MTC1 where its slightly under 2/3rd of DS2. 

Edited June 27, 2022 by keysersoze123

[el sid]

Minions 2, counted today at 11am EST for Friday, July 1:

NY (AMC Fresh Meadows 7): 192 (10 showtimes)
Miami (AMC Sunset Place 24): 149 (21 showtimes)
Grand Rapids (AMC Grand Rapids 18): 45 (4 showtimes)
Austin (AMC Lakeline 9): 62 (9 showtimes)
Tempe/Phoenix (AMC Centerpoint 11): 12 (7 showtimes)
San Francisco (AMC Metreon 16): 120 (17 showtimes)
LA (AMC Universal): 327 (18 showtimes)

Total tickets sold in 7 theaters: 907.

Comps: Lightyear (50.6M OW) had 1.235 sold tickets for Friday on Wednesday (= 2 days left for the Minions to overtake which should happen)

and Sonic 2 (72.1M) had on Monday for Friday 791 sold tickets.

 

Mr. Malcolm's List had today at the same time 14 sold tickets in 4 theaters for Thursday and 17 sold tickets, also in 4 theaters, for Friday.
Comp: Downton Abbey 2 had on Tuesday 211 sold tickets for Friday.

Let's see how it looks later in the week...

 

Nope had today for Friday, July 22 (25 days left), 518 sold tickets in 7 theaters.

Comps: Scream (30M OW) had with 26 days to go 108 sold tickets.

And Old (16.9M OW) had 500 sold tickets with one day left, on Thursday for Friday.

Pretty convincing so far. The presales in the AMCs in LA, San Francisco and Miami look good, those in NY could be a bit stronger.

[titanic2187]

5 hours ago, M37 said:

Looking at the last couple of Minions updates and corresponding growth rate, it looks poised to explode right up through Thursday 

 

Currently expecting the final (T-1hr) totals to be at least 3x, if not 3.5x current totals, and a preview number stating with at least a $7

Something around $7m would mean $65m opening, this would be a "disappointment" if LY performed as predicted at around $70m-80m. I lower down my expectation on Minion 2 after what happened to LY so a $65m opening can now be considered a win for animation. 

 

The past few months taught us that it is almost impossible to hit 10x from preview with current market practice (early screening + super early preview start time). 

[Tinalera]

Thor4 

SW/Toronto Ontario t-11(no comps)

 

thor4	# theatre	#show	Seats Sold	Seats Rem	Ttl seat	Percent
Thurs	20	149	6525	24307	30832	0.2116
Fri	20	280	4183	35956	40139	0.1042

[Tinalera]

12 hours ago, Porthos said:

 

FWIW, which perhaps isn't much, Minions 2 pulled ahead of Lightyear.

 

At T-4

Minions 2: 1417 [+263]

Lightyear: 1253 [+187]

 

The reported 5.2m preview would give 5.88m while the suspected/guessed estimate of 5.8m would give 6.56m which is right in line with the other two comps I have.  Probably more coincidence than anything else given the disparities in pace between the four movies, but something perhaps to keep in mind.

 

Then again, this will almost certainly sell more kids tickets than any of those other three flicks, so something else we have to remember [not the mention the possibility that Sacto is running hot for whatever reason].

interesting watching my numbers in Ontario where Minions2 have been outdoing Lightyear most of its presales run by a decent significant margin, so you could say its running hot here too (or maybe Lightyear was just Underperformance and Minions is doing closer to what a "normal" animated film would do.

[Inceptionzq]

On 6/26/2022 at 2:52 PM, Inceptionzq said:

Thor Love and Thunder Denver Thursday Showings

AMC Westminster 24

Total

1104

3809

28.98%

AMC Highlands Ranch 24

Total

1088

4985

21.83%

 

SEATS SOLD	SOLD PAST DAY	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD	THEATERS	SHOWINGS
5051	110	37793	13.36%	15	233

 

AMCs sold	3553
Cinemarks sold	710
Regals sold	425
Harkins sold	363

 

0.652x Doctor Strange MoM T-11 (23.48M)

1.35x Batman T-11 (29.14M)

0.386x NWH T-11 (19.30M)

 

A bit behind Doctor Strange's pace. The past 3 day sales(T-14 to T-11) was 460 for DS and it is 424 for Thor.

Thor Love and Thunder Denver Thursday Showings

AMC Westminster 24

Total

1133

3809

29.75%

AMC Highlands Ranch 24

Total

1142

4985

22.91%

 

SEATS SOLD	SOLD PAST DAY	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD	THEATERS	SHOWINGS
5282	231	37793	13.98%	15	233

 

AMCs sold	3718
Cinemarks sold	721
Regals sold	454
Harkins sold	389

 

1.49x Top Gun Maverick T-10 (28.71M)

0.666x Doctor Strange MoM T-10 (23.98M) [+187]

0.394x NWH T-10 (19.70M)

 

Not sure what propelled this increase, but a really good day.

[Inceptionzq]

On 6/26/2022 at 3:03 PM, Inceptionzq said:

Thor Love and Thunder Megaplex

 

T-11 Thursday(190 showings): 4902(+155)/47563

0.575x Doctor Strange MoM T-11 (20.72M)

1.11x Batman T-11 (23.91M)

0.273x NWH T-11 (13.64M)

 

T-12 Friday(258 showings): 2772(+110)/67683

0.577x Doctor Strange MoM T-12 (31.59M)

1.57x Batman T-12 (54.81M)

0.213x NWH T-12 (15.35M)

 

T-13 Saturday(264 showings): 1423(+65)/69227

0.509x Doctor Strange MoM T-13 (29.41M)

1.54x Batman T-13 (66.41M)

0.206x NWH T-13 (15.26M)

 

T-14 Sunday(253 showings): 550(+32)/68879

0.789x Doctor Strange MoM T-14 (30.69M)

2.53x Batman T-14 (86.53M)

0.342x NWH T-14 (21.92M)

 

3 day paces for Thor vs Doctor Strange:

Thurs - 553 vs 533; Friday - 401 vs 496; Saturday - 268 vs 354; Sunday - 120 vs 111.

Thor Love and Thunder Megaplex

 

T-10 Thursday(190 showings): 5247(+345)/47563

1.28x Top Gun Maverick T-10 (24.61M)

0.599x Doctor Strange MoM T-10 (21.57M) [+240]

0.283x NWH T-10 (14.14M)

 

T-11 Friday(258 showings): 2879(+107)/67683

0.730x Top Gun Maverick T-11 (23.91M)

0.575x Doctor Strange MoM T-11 (31.46M) [+206]

0.212x NWH T-11 (15.24M)

 

T-12 Saturday(264 showings): 1527(+104)/69227

0.557x Top Gun Maverick T-12 (21.17M)

0.520x Doctor Strange MoM T-12 (30.08M) [+138]

0.24x NWH T-12 (15.07M)

 

T-13 Sunday(253 showings): 587(+37)/68879

0.880x Top Gun Maverick T-13 (32.28M)

0.822x Doctor Strange MoM T-13 (31.97M) [+17]

0.332x NWH T-13 (21.33M)

[Inceptionzq]

On 6/26/2022 at 3:12 PM, Inceptionzq said:

Thor Love and Thunder Alamo Drafthouse

 

T-11 Thursday(168 showings): 12405(+233)/25319 ATP: $15.21

0.737x Doctor Strange MoM T-11 (26.55M)

1.39x Batman T-11 (24.51M, only using est Thurs gross of 17.6M)

0.498x NWH T-11 (24.90M)

 

T-12 Friday(230 showings): 10179(+288)/34490 ATP: $15.28

0.682x Doctor Strange MoM T-12 (37.32M)

1.15x Batman T-12 (40.09M)

0.473x NWH T-12 (34.02M)

 

T-13 Saturday(239 showings): 9662(+389)/36137 ATP: $14.69

0.617x Doctor Strange MoM T-13 (35.65M)

1.15x Batman T-13 (49.58M)

0.472x NWH T-13 (34.88M)

 

T-14 Sunday(220 showings): 5287(+227)/33448 ATP: $14.25

0.687x Doctor Strange MoM T-14 (26.70M)

1.50x Batman T-14 (51.09M)

0.520x NWH T-14 (33.39M)

 

3 day paces of Thor vs Doctor Strange:

Thursday - 1087 vs 831; Friday - 1070 vs 978; Saturday - 1404 vs 1206; Sunday - 791 vs 819

Thor Love and Thunder Alamo Drafthouse

 

T-10 Thursday(173 showings): 12741(+336)/25797 ATP: $15.21

0.741x Doctor Strange MoM T-10 (26.68M) [+364]

0.506x NWH T-10 (25.28M)

 

T-11 Friday(234 showings): 10627(+448)/34674 ATP: $15.27

0.692x Doctor Strange MoM T-11 (37.85M) [+437]

0.477x NWH T-11 (34.34M)

 

T-12 Saturday(243 showings): 10082(+420)/36321 ATP: $14.72

0.625x Doctor Strange MoM T-12 (36.11M) [+472]

0.474x NWH T-12 (35.06M)

 

T-13 Sunday(224 showings): 5544(+257)/33628 ATP: $14.28

0.689x Doctor Strange MoM T-13 (26.81M) [+340]

0.510x NWH T-13 (32.70M)

[M37]

1 hour ago, titanic2187 said:

Something around $7m would mean $65m opening, this would be a "disappointment" if LY performed as predicted at around $70m-80m. I lower down my expectation on Minion 2 after what happened to LY so a $65m opening can now be considered a win for animation. 

 

The past few months taught us that it is almost impossible to hit 10x from preview with current market practice (early screening + super early preview start time). 

Family movies are probably about the only ones capable of hitting a 10x with current dynamics: Sonic 2 was nearly 12x from a 3pm start (albeit in April), and LY didn’t play like a family movie, esp on Thursday and Friday, which significantly lowered the IM. Minions specifically also has a Monday 4th of July to help Sunday numbers and likely some demographic differences that will push up IM as well

 

I’m sitting on $70-$80M OW, until further data proves otherwise 

[Menor the Destroyer]

On 6/25/2022 at 6:40 PM, Menor Reborn said:

Thor Love and Thunder Marcus (T-12)

 

Theaters: 85

 

Thursday:

Showings: 885 (+3 since Thurs night)

Seats Sold: 21638/132270 (+1034 since Thurs night)

 

Friday:

Showings: 1391 (+6 since Thurs night)

Seats Sold: 13162/209593 (+879 since Thurs night)

 

 

Data from this morning, around 9am Central, so the pace is about 33ish hours of sales (but since early morning hours are low sales, it won't be too different from a 24h pace).

Finally started working again. Data from last night, so about a 36-hour pace since the previous update. 

 

Thor Love and Thunder Marcus Theaters (T-11 EOD)

 

Theaters: 85

 

Thursday:

Showings: 885

Seats Sold: 22752/132387 (+1114)

 

Friday:

Showings: 1391

Seats Sold: 14161/209589 (+999)

 

There are some discrepancies in the "total seats" data, I probably miscounted some of the few shows that I have to track manually, but the "seats sold" data should still be accurate as that is much quicker and easier to count accurately. 

Edited June 27, 2022 by Menor Reborn

[keysersoze123]

Minions 2 MTC1 Thursday - 33229/718506 537457.17 3787 shows

 

I have no idea what the pace is as its just 1st run. But good show count for sure. 

[Menor the Destroyer]

On 6/25/2022 at 6:35 PM, Menor Reborn said:

Minions 2 Marcus (T-5)

 

Theaters: 85

 

Thursday:

Showings: 613 (+2 since Tuesday)

Seats Sold: 3203/97271 (+566 since Tuesday)

 

Friday:

Showings: 893 (-1 since Tuesday)*

Seats Sold: 4732/141112 (+1079 since Tuesday)

 

A few showings are throwing errors even on manual checks, which is why the number of tracked showings for Friday decreased. 

 

 

Theaters: 85

 

Thursday:

Showings: 731(+118)

Seats Sold: 4459/108321 (+1256)

 

Friday:

Showings: 1308 (+415)

Seats Sold: 7908/182764 (+3449)

[keysersoze123]

Minions MTC1 Friday - 44105/1041855 675936.79 5446 shows. 

 

Higher than previews but not by that much considering now all the schools are off. It should open higher than Lightyear but I am thinking low 60s is what I believe based on these numbers. 

[Eric Loves Rey]

23 hours ago, Eric the Minion said:

Minions: The Rise of Gru Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-4 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	125	486	27571	1.76%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 63

 

Comp

3.262x of Jungle Cruise T-4 (8.81M)

0.418x of Sonic the Hedgehog 2 T-4 (2.61M)

0.957x of Lightyear T-4 (4.97M)

Minions: The Rise of Gru Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-3 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	134	665	28706	2.32%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 179

 

Comp

3.715x of Jungle Cruise T-3 (10.03M)

0.477x of Sonic the Hedgehog 2 T-3 (2.98M)

1.023x of Lightyear T-3 (5.32M)

[Eric Loves Rey]

23 hours ago, Eric the Minion said:

Thor: Love and Thunder Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-11 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	185	5949	34527	17.23%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 158

 

Comp

0.362x of Spider-Man: No Way Home T-11 (18.1M)

1.135x of The Batman T-11 (24.51M)

0.592x of Doctor Strange 2 T-11 (21.3M)

Thor: Love and Thunder Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-10 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	185	6136	34527	17.77%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 187

 

Comp

0.360x of Spider-Man: No Way Home T-10 (18.01M)

1.141x of The Batman T-10 (24.66M)

0.597x of Doctor Strange 2 T-10 (21.5M)

[Eric Loves Rey]

23 hours ago, Eric the Minion said:

Nope Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-25 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	62	201	12632	1.59%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 20

 

Nope Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-24 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	62	209	12632	1.65%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 8

[Porthos]

22 hours ago, Porthos said:

 

Thor: Love and Thunder Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-11 days and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	228	24416	31600	7184	22.73%

 

Total Seats Sold Today

202

 

T-11 Unadjusted Comps

	%		Sold T-11	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
NWH	42.26		467	16999		0/308	20553/37552	45.27%		28183	25.49%		21.13m
Batman	160.79		130	4468		0/285	30994/35462	12.60%		11757	61.10%		34.73m
MoM	65.16		189	11025		/351	31411/42436	25.98%		21117	34.02%		23.46m

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of Love and Thunder's current tickets sold versus that final number.

 

T-11 Adjusted Comps

	%		Sold T-11	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
BW	234.63		108	2766		0/119	16494/19260	14.36%		9196	78.12%		32.43m
L&T (adj)			159	6490		0/188	19813/26303	24.67%

ADJUSTMENT NOTE:  L&T (adj) is the seats sold that does not include theaters that had unreliable data in their seat maps that that point in BW's track.

COMP NOTE: The BW comp has been adjusted to reflect the absence of Ontario theaters in the DOM market during BW's pre-sale run (what would normally be the comp/0.955)

 

Regal:         707/4831  [14.63% sold]
Matinee:    327/2566  [12.74% | 4.55% of all tickets sold]

 

Thor: Love and Thunder Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-10 days and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	228	24235	31597	7362	23.30%

 

Total Seats Sold Today

178

 

T-10 Unadjusted Comps

	%		Sold T-10	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
NWH	42.27		416	17415		0/308	20137/37552	46.38%		28183	26.12%		21.14m
Batman	158.90		165	4633		0/288	30971/35604	13.01%		11757	62.62%		34.32m
MoM	65.21		265	11290		0/353	31386/42676	26.46%		21117	34.86%		23.47m

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of Love and Thunder's current tickets sold versus that final number.

 

T-10 Adjusted Comps

	%		Sold T-10	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
BW	228.54		142	2908		0/119	16352/19260	15.10%		9196	80.06%		31.59m
L&T (adj)			156	6646		0/188	19657/26303	25.27%

ADJUSTMENT NOTE:  L&T (adj) is the seats sold that does not include theaters that had unreliable data in their seat maps that that point in BW's track.

COMP NOTE: The BW comp has been adjusted to reflect the absence of Ontario theaters in the DOM market during BW's pre-sale run (what would normally be the comp/0.955)

 

Regal:         729/4831  [15.09% sold]
Matinee:    340/2566  [13.25% | 4.62% of all tickets sold]

[Porthos]

On 6/27/2022 at 1:01 AM, Porthos said:

 

Minions 2 Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-4 days and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	169	23955	25372	1417	5.58%

 

Total Seats Sold Today

263

 

T-4 Comp

	%		Sold T-4	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
GB:A	142.41		75	995		0/117	16554/17549	5.67%		9196	15.41%		6.41m
Sonic 2	104.11		172	1361		0/92	11557/12918	10.54%		5847	24.23%		6.51m

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of Minions 2's current tickets sold versus that final number.

  
Regal:        150/5238  [2.86% sold]
Matinee:    125/2536  [4.93% | 8.82% of all tickets sold]

 

 

Minions 2 Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-3 days and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	188	25737	27642	1905	6.89%

 

Total Seats Sold Today

488

 

T-3 Comp

	%		Sold T-3	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
GB:A	161.85		182	1177		0/153	19354/20531	5.73%		9196	20.72%		7.28m
Sonic 2	116.87		269	1630		0/109	12800/14430	11.30%		5847	32.58%		7.30m

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of Minions 2's current tickets sold versus that final number.

  
Regal:        244/5236  [4.66% sold]
Matinee:    202/2534  [7.97% | 10.60% of all tickets sold]

 

===

 

Yesterday was no fluke.  Locally at least. Don't know if it can keep that pace going against GBA/Sonic 2, as it has to keep outselling those two on their final three days.  Even so, a very impressive start to the week here in SacTown.

 

Only real question now is, how much will kids tickets impact the comps.

 

(Presuming Sacto isn't wildly out of step here, of course)

Edited June 28, 2022 by Porthos

[charlie Jatinder]

19 hours ago, charlie Jatinder said:

Thor: Love and Thunder Harkins T-11 Days

 

Shows	Capacity	Sold	% Sold	Gross	ATP
421	105,695	11,377	10.76%	$145,356	$12.78

 

+347. 11.8K will need 400+ tomorrow. Will be tough, but doable. 

Thor: Love and Thunder Harkins T-10 Days

Shows	Capacity	Sold	% Sold	Gross	ATP
421	105,695	11,820	11.18%	$150,546	$12.74

 

Solid day today. +443. Though this include 2 shows which had sold 120 seats, but were removed today. I assume they will be back tomorrow or some day.

 

The film almost matched the target of 2605 increase of DSitMoM in last 7 days with 2560. In next 7 days, DSitMoM sold really well with 9.9K sales. That will be tough to match. A 7K increase will be a solid result, so let's target 18.8K by T-3 days. 

 

Comps

0.587x of DSitMoM admits- $21.1M

[charlie Jatinder]

19 hours ago, charlie Jatinder said:

Minions: The Rise of Gru Harkins T-4 Days

Shows	Capacity	Sold	% Sold	Gross	ATP
302	76,850	1,793	2.33%	$21,336	$11.90

 

+401 yesterday. Solid pace. 

 

Comps

0.87x Lightyear T-4 days - $4.78M (adj for ATP $4M)

 

Taken $5.5M for Lightyear including EA. Minions shall have more walkins than Lightyear, so $5M still possible.

Minions: The Rise of Gru Harkins T-3 Days

Shows	Capacity	Sold	% Sold	Gross	ATP
302	76,850	2,498	3.25%	$29,580	$11.84

 

+705 yesterday. Good day, almost par 735 of Lightyear. 

 

Comps

0.89x Lightyear T-3 days - $4.9M (adj for ATP $4.4M)

 

$6M is doable.