The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread (December 2021 - July 2023)

[CJohn]

5 minutes ago, filmlover said:

Sunday is basically going to behave like a second Saturday since it's a 4-day holiday.

What is the day that is usually deflated? The 4th itself?

[filmlover]

11 minutes ago, CJohn said:

What is the day that is usually deflated? The 4th itself?

Yes since people are usually distracted with fireworks, picnics, etc. unless it rains.

[katnisscinnaplex]

On 6/17/2022 at 8:10 AM, katnisscinnaplex said:

Movie	Theaters	Shows	Change	Standard	PLF	IMAX	3D
Lightyear	3,392	154,652		119,263	35,389	1,348	30,184
Jurassic World 3	3,649	106,760	-41.29%	90,204	16,556	3,024	10,493
Top Gun: Maverick	3,192	72,840	-25.20%	72,518	322	12	0
Doctor Strange 2	1,889	22,514	-32.96%	22,389	125	0	110
Bob's Burgers Movie	1,075	8,033	-70.94%	8,027	6	0	0
The Bad Guys	1,050	7,845	-56.66%	7,826	19	0	12
Downton Abbey 2	864	6,349	-54.50%	6,337	12	0	0
Everything Everywhere	536	3,825	-46.59%	3,819	6	0	0
Brian and Charles	255	3,689		3,689	0	0	0
Virata Parvam	241	2,038		2,038	0	0	0
Sonic the Hedgehog 2	273	1,993	-66.18%	1,992	1	0	0

 

US showtime sample for 6/17/22 weekend

 

Market is insanely top heavy this week with the last four big releases dominating show counts.  

 

OW shows comps

Lightyear 6/15 EA - 481 (469 TC)

Lightyear - 154,652 (3,392 TC) (35,389 PLF)

 - Black Widow - 156,781 (3,409) (19,112 IMAX) (didn't record 3D)

 - Morbius - 134,155 (3,418) (15,270 PLF)

 - Venom 2 - 137,474 (3,273) (13,022 IMAX) (didn't record 3D)

 

T-1 Week

Black Phone 6/15 EA - 150 (150 TC)

Black Phone 6/22 EA - ....

Black Phone - 30,912 (2,156 TC)

 - Halloween Kills - 32,962 (2,343)

 - Death on the Nile - 33,327 (2,240)

Elvis 6/21 EA - 223 (216 TC)

Elvis - 38,236 (2,726 TC)

 - Lost City - 38,802 (2,634)

 - Downton Abbey 2 - 32,295 (2,760)

 

Black Phone 6/22 shows are suspiciously missing from my source.  I was already wondering if the shows in my regionals were by accident, but all three are still there and marked as early screenings.  Can anyone else see Regal shows on the 22nd?

 

T-2 Weeks Previews

Minions 2 - 17,719 (2,447 TC) (5,190 PLF)

 - JW3 - 20,186 (2,773) (5,091)

 - Venom 2 - 13,768 (2,381) (2,499 IMAX)

 - Top Gun 2 - 21,595 (2,856) (2,787)

 

T-3 Weeks Previews

Thor 4 - 23,551 (2,550 TC) (2,550 PLF)

 - TG:M - 20,170 (2,554) (2,697)

 - Batman - 21,077 (2,439) (2,426)

 - JW - 19,486 (2,624) (5,056)

 - DS2 - 30,203 (2,704) (7,303)

 

Clearly not getting the same rollout as DS2; like others have said, likely waiting to see how the current movies perform the next couple of weeks before allocating screens for that weekend.

 

T-5 Weeks Previews

Nope - 7,656 (1,929) (1,987 PLF)

 - JW3 - 18,526 (2,512) (4,973)

 

Still the only other movie this far out.

Movie	Theaters	Shows	Change	Standard	PLF	IMAX	3D
Lightyear	3,479	82,443	-46.69%	74,666	7,777	1,343	4,850
Elvis	3,377	75,093		69,270	5,823	0	0
Jurassic World Dominion	3,402	73,932	-30.75%	65,931	8,001	2,028	4,592
Top Gun: Maverick	3,311	71,461	-1.89%	69,721	1,740	1,012	0
The Black Phone	2,800	59,993		59,498	495	0	0
Doctor Strange 2	1,479	17,183	-23.68%	17,060	123	0	111
The Bad Guys	725	4,189	-46.60%	4,180	9	0	9
Phantom of the Open	454	3,516		3,516	0	0	0
Everything Everywhere	416	2,766	-27.69%	2,761	5	0	0
Downton Abbey 2	448	2,744	-56.78%	2,731	13	0	0
Bob's Burgers Movie	407	2,727	-66.05%	2,727	0	0	0
Jug Jugg Jeeyo	273	2,654		2,654	0	0	0
Brian and Charles	258	1,258	-65.90%	1,258	0	0	0

 

US showtime sample for 6/24/22 weekend

 

OW shows comps

Black Phone 6/15 EA - 150 (150 TC)

Black Phone 6/22 EA - ....

Black Phone - 59,993 (2,800 TC)

 - Old - 56,613 (2,958)

 - Death on the Nile - 56,756 (2,935)

Elvis 6/21 EA - 219 (213 TC)

Elvis - 75,093 (3,377 TC)

 - Candyman - 74,146 (3,113)

 - Free Guy - 80,479 (3,318)

 - Lost City - 81,686 (3,443)

 

My source never posted any Black Phone shows for Wednesday.  I know they happened, but no idea how many.  

 

T-1 Week

Minions 2 - 94,225 (2,848 TC) (24,830 PLF)

 - Lightyear - 82,420 (2,745) (27,340)

 - Venom 2 - 81,718 (2,807) (12,495 IMAX)

 - JW3 - 117,594 (3,104) (30,356)

Mr. Malcolm's List - 10,621 (813 TC)

 - Infinite Storm - 10,576 (867)

 - National Champions - 10,875 (911)

 - The King's Daughter - 10,270 (815)

 

T-2 Weeks Previews

Thor 4 - 24,565 (2,756 TC) (6,755 PLF)

 - Batman - 23,704 (2,907) (2,480)

 - JW - 20,186 (2,773) (5,091)

 - NWH - 26,573 (2,835) (4,775)

 

T-3 Weeks Previews

Crawdads Sing 7/13 EA - 44 (44 TC)

Where the Crawdads Sing - 2,901 (971 TC)

 - Father Stu - 3,017 (1,359)

 - Uncharted - 3,304 (813)

 - Ghostbusters - 3,137 (799)

 

T-4 Weeks Previews

Nope - 7,792 (1,976) (2,007 PLF)

 - Scream - 2,631 (1,258) (571)

 - Venom 2 - 12,067 (1,934) (2,326 IMAX)

[charlie Jatinder]

On 6/23/2022 at 3:34 PM, charlie Jatinder said:

Elvis Harkins T-1 Day

Day	Shows	Capacity	Sold	% Sold	Gross	ATP
Early Access	7	2,283	1,579	69.16%	$24,403	$15.45
Thursday	113	27,549	2,082	7.56%	$23,614	$11.34
Total	120	29,832	3,661	12.27%	$48,017	$13.12

 

Big growth for Elvis, adding over 700 seats in THU. Should hit 5.25-5.5K for THU I believe i.e. $60K, which will normally means $3M approx nationwide, with EA should come around $4M. 

 

Comps

0.53x of Eternals - $5M (THU only $2.85M)

Elvis Harkins Final

Day	Shows	Capacity	Sold	% Sold	Gross	ATP
Early Access	7	2,283	1,579	69.16%	$24,403	$15.45
Thursday	114	27,878	5,911	21.20%	$66,533	$11.26
Total	121	30,161	7,490	24.83%	$90,936	$12.14

 

Comps

0.217x Jurassic World - $3.86M (THU alone $3.04M)

0.455x Eternals - $4.3M (THU alone $3.4M)

 

Will guess around $3.25M THU only and $600K EA for $3.9M

[charlie Jatinder]

On 6/23/2022 at 3:01 PM, charlie Jatinder said:

The Black Phone Harkins T-1 Day

 

Shows	Capacity	Sold	% Sold	Gross	ATP
107	20,557	1,227	5.97%	$13,917	$11.34

 

Solid day. Added 516 new seats. Final shall be 3.5K range for $38K gross. That will be good for $1.6-1.9M previews nationwide.

The Black Phone Harkins Final

Shows	Capacity	Sold	% Sold	Gross	ATP
109	20,733	5,608	27.05%	$62,391	$11.13

 

Simply unreal. Added 4400 walkins during the day as compared to 1200 pre-sales. Was expecting 3.5k with really good walkins but...

 

Should hit $3M previews from these numbers and then there are early access showings as well.

[charlie Jatinder]

On 6/23/2022 at 3:40 PM, charlie Jatinder said:

Thor: Love and Thunder Harkins T-15 Days

Shows	Capacity	Sold	% Sold	Gross	ATP
421	105,617	9,779	9.26%	$129,048	$13.20

Thor: Love and Thunder Harkins T-14 Days

Shows	Capacity	Sold	% Sold	Gross	ATP
421	105,617	10,182	9.64%	$130,806	$12.85

 

Solid day with 403 new sales. With reactions drop, hoping for +500 today.

 

Comps

0.55x DSitMoM T-14 days - $19.8M (+$2.5M in last 7 days)

 

Way it is going should hit $30M+ in final comps, may even near $35M. 

 

Edited June 24, 2022 by charlie Jatinder

[LegendaryBen]

3 minutes ago, charlie Jatinder said:

Thor: Love and Thunder Harkins T-14 Days

Shows	Capacity	Sold	% Sold	Gross	ATP
421	105,617	10,182	9.64%	$130,806	$12.85

 

Solid day with 403 new sales. With reactions drop, hoping for +500 today.

 

Comps

0.55x DSitMoM T-14 days - $19.8M (+$2.5M in last 7 days)

 

Way it is going should hit $30M+ in final comps, may even near $35M. 

 

It may have a chance of beating DS2 at this point unless its WOM is toxic. My $178M prediction isn't that crazy so far.

[Juan Caballo]

Damn. Thor went down 4%. I kinda had a 200M OW hope. Oh well. 

 

I will be happy anything over 170M tho. 

[charlie Jatinder]

On 6/23/2022 at 3:42 PM, charlie Jatinder said:

Minions: The Rise of Gru Harkins T-8 Days

Shows	Capacity	Sold	% Sold	Gross	ATP
302	76,185	836	1.10%	$10,035	$12.00

 

Comps

1.11x of Lightyear T-8 days - $6.3M (adj for ATP probably $5-5.25M)

 

Minions: The Rise of Gru Harkins T-7 Days

Shows	Capacity	Sold	% Sold	Gross	ATP
301	76,400	981	1.28%	$11,708	$11.93

 

Good day of +145.

[Eric the IF]

https://www.boxofficepro.com/long-range-box-office-forecast-jordan-peeles-nope/

 

Long Range Box Office Forecast & 2022’s Upcoming Calendar
(as of 6/23/22)

Release Date	Title	3-Day (FSS) Opening Low/High Range	Pinpoint % Chg from Last Week	Domestic Total Low/High Range	Pinpoint % Chg from Last Week	Distributor
7/1/2022	Minions: The Rise of Gru	$65,000,000 – $77,000,000		$195,000,000 – $260,000,000		Universal Pictures
7/8/2022	Thor: Love and Thunder	$145,000,000 – $190,000,000	-4%	$327,000,000 – $459,000,000	-4%	Disney / Marvel Studios
7/15/2022	Mrs. Harris Goes to Paris					Focus Features
7/15/2022	Paws of Fury: The Legend of Hank	$9,000,000 – $14,000,000		$28,000,000 – $45,000,000		Paramount Pictures
7/15/2022	Where the Crawdads Sing	$17,000,000 – $26,000,000		$48,000,000 – $85,000,000		Sony / 3000 Pictures
7/22/2022	Nope	$45,000,000 – $65,000,000		$110,000,000 – $190,000,000		Universal Pictures

[Nikostar]

19 minutes ago, Eric Presley said:

https://www.boxofficepro.com/long-range-box-office-forecast-jordan-peeles-nope/

 

Long Range Box Office Forecast & 2022’s Upcoming Calendar
(as of 6/23/22)

Release Date	Title	3-Day (FSS) Opening Low/High Range	Pinpoint % Chg from Last Week	Domestic Total Low/High Range	Pinpoint % Chg from Last Week	Distributor
7/1/2022	Minions: The Rise of Gru	$65,000,000 – $77,000,000		$195,000,000 – $260,000,000		Universal Pictures
7/8/2022	Thor: Love and Thunder	$145,000,000 – $190,000,000	-4%	$327,000,000 – $459,000,000	-4%	Disney / Marvel Studios
7/15/2022	Mrs. Harris Goes to Paris					Focus Features
7/15/2022	Paws of Fury: The Legend of Hank	$9,000,000 – $14,000,000		$28,000,000 – $45,000,000		Paramount Pictures
7/15/2022	Where the Crawdads Sing	$17,000,000 – $26,000,000		$48,000,000 – $85,000,000		Sony / 3000 Pictures
7/22/2022	Nope	$45,000,000 – $65,000,000		$110,000,000 – $190,000,000		Universal Pictures

Very Nice for Nope. 

[Krissykins]

That seems solid for Nope. 
 

With Get Out and Us both making $175-176m, it would be fantastic if Nope got up there too. 
 

I’m not expecting it to, but a gross over $100m would be nice. 

[Tinalera]

Minions t-7

SW/Toronto Ontario

 

	# theatre	#show	Seats Sold	Seats Rem	Ttl seat	Percent
Thurs	17	86	291	23707	23998	0.0121
Fri	15	84	321	22290	22611	0.0141

 

So I have my first day I can compare Lightyear and Minions. As youve all probably have seen a wonderful discussion with @charlie Jatinder and @DAJK and myself regards to how to do a comp in Canada-if you missed that the TLDR:

 

Canada can be a different beast than US. While Canada is counted as part of US domestic, it can have some....individuality of it over or underperforming compared to the US counterpart. Now trying to find Canada only numbers is....difficult, but there have been offers to get me Canada numbers over time to make it easier. In the meantime I will be using the US numbers with the caution that the comps of my numbers should be taken with these considerations of me comparing Canada to US/Canada combined instead of just straight Canada. When I am able to get Canada closing numbers to reference it will be that much easier.

 

Right heres what I have and how I calculated: 

(Seats are combined Thurs and Fri)

T-7 Lightyear: Total seats sold 317

T-7 Minions:  Total seats sold 612

my calcs (ha) put that percentage at 1.930

Lightyear (US/Canada) friday was 20 million

So doing the 1.930 x 20 million gives me 38.6

 

If Ive TOTALLY messed up here math wise please tell me!

 

So going by Canada (and specifically Toronto/SW only) numbers, 

that would give a comp of...38 million? Now even looking at that I kind furl my brow a bit-because going by that alone would suggest Minions will double Lightyear opening Friday. Now it would be interesting to see what Canada opened for Lightyear to see how off I am lol.

 

 

And hey to DOUBLE down on my own insanity-Im going to call a 38 million Domestic opening for Friday with Thursday numbers for Minions just to laugh at myself when i see how totally wrong I was.

 

Edited June 24, 2022 by Tinalera

[Alex SciChannel]

 

[Eric the IF]

1 hour ago, charlie Jatinder said:

Should hit $3M previews from these numbers and then there are early access showings as well.

Maybe Elvis wasn't actually the King after all 🤔

[charlie Jatinder]

@Tinalera this is the Canada thread. Will try to keep it more active. Also tagging @DAJK

 

 

[Alex SciChannel]

 

[Tinalera]

3 minutes ago, charlie Jatinder said:

@Tinalera this is the Canada thread. Will try to keep it more active. Also tagging @DAJK

 

 

So should I just post my numbers in the Canada thread then and not here? Or should I post my numbers in both just for continuity?

[charlie Jatinder]

9 minutes ago, Tinalera said:

So should I just post my numbers in the Canada thread then and not here? Or should I post my numbers in both just for continuity?

I think actually may be good to have them here for quick reference since in tracking thread we get A LOT of info. 

 

If its not too much trouble, both will be fine as well.

 

Edit: Here I thought meant Canada thread. Posting in Canada thread & tracking thread will be nice IMO @Tinalera

Edited June 24, 2022 by charlie Jatinder

[snarkmachine]

8 minutes ago, Alex SciChannel said:

 

 

Is this including EA?