The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread (December 2021 - July 2023)

[Ronin46]

3 hours ago, CJohn said:

Crawdads is screwed. I really wanted 20M. Shit.

 

Why wont it? Still looks like it may well get there. 

[filmlover]

3 hours ago, CJohn said:

Crawdads is screwed. I really wanted 20M. Shit.

It cost only $24M to make so the studio is destined to lose little (if anything) on it. Legs will probably depend on if fans of the book like it more than critics are - it certainly has an open schedule to take advantage of with releases about to dry up for a while after the first weekend of August.

[Eric Prime]

On 7/12/2022 at 11:34 PM, Eric Odinson said:

Paws of Fury: The Legend of Hank Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-2 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	45	38	5167	0.74%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 8

 

Comp

0.212x of Boss Baby 2 T-2 (278K)

0.160x of Jungle Cruise T-2 (431K)

0.623x of Addams Family 2 T-2 (343K)

1.809x of Ron's Gone Wrong T-2 (434K)

0.164x of Encanto T-2 (246K)

0.413x of The Bad Guys T-2 (475K)

Paws of Fury: The Legend of Hank Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-1 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	48	69	5482	1.26%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 31

 

Comp

0.256x of Boss Baby 2 T-1 (336K)

0.220x of Jungle Cruise T-1 (595K)

0.657x of Addams Family 2 T-1 (361K)

2.379x of Ron's Gone Wrong T-1 (571K)

0.223x of Encanto T-1 (335K)

0.454x of The Bad Guys T-1 (522K)

[Eric Prime]

On 7/12/2022 at 11:50 PM, Eric Odinson said:

Where the Crawdads Sing Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-2 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	42	260	4843	5.37%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 66

 

Comp

1.538x of Dear Evan Hansen T-2 (1.23M)

1.340x of West Side Story T-2 (1.07M)

1.452x of Death on the Nile T-2 (1.6M)

3.210x of Marry Me T-2 (1.68M)

1.262x of Dog T-2 (1.59M)

0.385x of The Lost City T-2 (1.25M)

0.561x of Downton Abbey 2 T-2 (1.07M)

0.404x of Elvis T-2 (1.41M)

Where the Crawdads Sing Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-1 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	45	329	5287	6.22%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 69

 

Comp

1.567x of Dear Evan Hansen T-1 (1.25M)

1.246x of West Side Story T-1 (997K)

1.256x of Death on the Nile T-1 (1.38M)

3.133x of Marry Me T-1 (1.64M)

1.462x of Dog T-1 (1.84M)

0.425x of The Lost City T-1 (1.38M)

0.572x of Downton Abbey 2 T-1 (1.09M)

0.446x of Elvis T-1 (1.56M)

 

Full disclosure, I forgot about the Early Access shows today, so this is an incomplete picture. But for some of these other comps, I missed an Early Access day for them too, so I guess it's fair. This stuff really is obnoxious these days.

[Eric Prime]

On 7/13/2022 at 12:05 AM, Eric Odinson said:

Nope Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-9 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	65	420	13040	3.22%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 29

 

Comp

0.449x of F9 T-9 (3.19M)

1.089x of Space Jam 2 T-9 (14.25M)

0.823x of Halloween Kills T-9 (3.99M)

0.963x of Scream T-9 (3.37M)

Nope Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-8 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	65	452	13040	3.47%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 32

 

Comp

0.451x of F9 T-8 (3.2M)

0.902x of Space Jam 2 T-8 (11.82M)

0.811x of Halloween Kills T-8 (3.94M)

0.938x of Scream T-8 (3.28M)

[Eric Prime]

On 7/13/2022 at 12:10 AM, Eric Odinson said:

DC League of Super Pets Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-16 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	42	15	6629	0.23%

 

Comp

0.138x of Minions 2 T-16 (1.48M)

 

Yes this is super soft, but kids movies, especially ones that don't have an older fanbase behind them, start off very quiet and lowkey. I'm sure things will be very different once we get to release week.

DC League of Super Pets Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-15 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	42	24	6629	0.23%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 9

 

Comp

1.333x of Jungle Cruise T-15 (3.6M)

0.203x of Minions 2 T-15 (2.19M)

[Rorschach]

Paws of Fury: The Legend of Hank (Wednesday Night Outlook)
Cinemark Davenport 18 + IMAX
    Thursday:
        3:00 pm: 11/78
        5:50 pm: 5/78
        8:40 pm: 1/78
    Total: 17/234 (7.26% sold)

 

Comps:
Addams Family 2: $779k
Ron’s Gone Wrong: $680k
Encanto: $981k
The Bad Guys: $558k
Average: $750k

 

    Friday:
        11:00 am: 15/78
        1:50 pm: 1/78
        4:40 pm: 7/78
        7:30 pm: 1/78
        10:20 pm: 1/78
    Total: 25/390 (6.4% sold)

 

Thurs + Fri: 42/624 (6.7% sold)

 

Comps: 
Addams Family 2: $3.28 mil
Ron’s Gone Wrong: $3.44 mil
Encanto: $2.81 mil
The Bad Guys: $2.07 mil
Average: $2.9 mil

[Rorschach]

Where the Crawdads Sing (Wednesday Night Outlook)
Cinemark Davenport 18 + IMAX
    Thursday:
        3:00 pm: 20/94
        6:15 pm: 43/94
        7:50 pm: 1/56
        9:30 pm: 1/94
        10:55 pm: 3/56
    Total: 68/394 (17.3% sold)

 

Comps:
Dear Evan Hansen: $1.75 mil
West Side Story: $2.86 mil
Downton Abbey: $915k
Elvis: $1.61 mil
Average: $1.78 mil

 

    Friday:
        9:30 am: 5/94
        11:10 am: 1/67
        12:45 pm: 40/94
        2:25 pm: 6/67
        4:00 pm: 19/94
        5:40 pm: 4/67
        7:15 pm: 51/94
        8:50 pm: 3/67
        10:30 pm: 4/94
    Total: 133/738 (18% sold)

 

Thurs + Fri: 201/1,132 (17.8% sold)

 

Comps:
Dear Evan Hansen: $7.95 mil
West Side Story: $7.16 mil
Downton Abbey: $4.37 mil
Elvis: $7.04 mil
Average: $6.63 mil

[vale9001]

With 2.5M previews it can make 22-23M.

 

It can be more frontloaded than Elvis but not that frontloaded. It's not something like twilight with a teen audience!. If Elvis got a 10.3 multiplier from the previews a 8.5-9 multiplier for crowdads seems right. 

[vale9001]

3 hours ago, filmlover said:

It cost only $24M to make so the studio is destined to lose little (if anything) on it. Legs will probably depend on if fans of the book like it more than critics are - it certainly has an open schedule to take advantage of with releases about to dry up for a while after the first weekend of August.

The budget is only 24 M? I read it something like 45m.

 

If it's only 24M what the studio should lose? Even with a 16M debut we can call it a success. No way this is is gonna have less than a 3x multiplier (like downton abbey). So even with a 16m first weeknd you got 45-50m total only from North America. 

 

 

[Porthos]

23 hours ago, Porthos said:

 

Nope Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-9 days and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	86	13185	13691	506	3.70%

 

Total Seats Sold Today

36

 

T-9 Unadjusted Comps

	%		Sold T-9	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
TSS	122.82		24	412		0/84	14323/14735	2.80%		2352	21.51%		5.04m
LTBC	37.23		97	1359		0/168	26691/28050	4.84%		7712	6.56%		4.32m
NTTD	48.75		88	1038		0/142	21077/22115	4.69%		3737	13.54%		3.02m

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of Nope's current tickets sold versus that final number.

 

T-9 Adjusted Comps

	%		Sold T-9	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
F9	40.47		81	1223		0/80	11347/12570	9.73%		4407	11.23%		3.01m
Nope (adj)	—		34	495		0/72	10985/11480	4.31%		—	—		—

ADJUSTMENT NOTE:  Nope (adj) is the seats sold that does not include theaters that had unreliable data in their seat maps that that point in F9's track.

COMP NOTE: The F9 comp has been adjusted to reflect the absence of Ontario theaters in the DOM market during F9's pre-sale run (what would normally be the comp/0.955)

 

Regal:     86/3959   [2.17% sold]
Matinee:    22/859  [2.56% | 4.35% of all tickets sold]

 

Nope Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-8 days and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	86	13136	13691	555	4.05%

 

Total Seats Sold Today

49

 

T-8 Unadjusted Comps

	%		Sold T-8	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
TSS	119.10		54	466		0/86	14550/15016	3.10%		2352	23.60%		4.88m
LTBC	37.86		107	1466		0/168	26584/28050	5.23%		7712	7.20%		4.39m
NTTD	47.35		134	1172		0/144	21181/22353	5.24%		3737	14.85%		2.94m

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of Nope's current tickets sold versus that final number.

 

T-8 Adjusted Comps

	%		Sold T-8	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
F9	41.12		100	1323		0/84	11791/13114	10.09%		4407	12.34%		3.06m
Nope (adj)	—		49	544		0/72	10936/11480	4.74%		—	—		—

ADJUSTMENT NOTE:  Nope (adj) is the seats sold that does not include theaters that had unreliable data in their seat maps that that point in F9's track.

COMP NOTE: The F9 comp has been adjusted to reflect the absence of Ontario theaters in the DOM market during F9's pre-sale run (what would normally be the comp/0.955)

 

Regal:      90/3959  [2.27% sold]
Matinee:    22/859  [2.56% | 3.96% of all tickets sold]

[CJohn]

7 hours ago, filmlover said:

It cost only $24M to make so the studio is destined to lose little (if anything) on it. Legs will probably depend on if fans of the book like it more than critics are - it certainly has an open schedule to take advantage of with releases about to dry up for a while after the first weekend of August.

Some places say 43M.

[katnisscinnaplex]

6 hours ago, Eric Odinson said:

Where the Crawdads Sing Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-1 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	45	329	5287	6.22%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 69

 

Comp

1.567x of Dear Evan Hansen T-1 (1.25M)

1.246x of West Side Story T-1 (997K)

1.256x of Death on the Nile T-1 (1.38M)

3.133x of Marry Me T-1 (1.64M)

1.462x of Dog T-1 (1.84M)

0.425x of The Lost City T-1 (1.38M)

0.572x of Downton Abbey 2 T-1 (1.09M)

0.446x of Elvis T-1 (1.56M)

 

Full disclosure, I forgot about the Early Access shows today, so this is an incomplete picture. But for some of these other comps, I missed an Early Access day for them too, so I guess it's fair. This stuff really is obnoxious these days.

I only saw six showings in all of PA.  

 

AMC Neshaminy - 33/161

Cinemark 20 and XD - 39/87

Cinemark Robinson Township - 71/100 and 32/65

Regal Downingtown 16 - 68/91

Regal Warrington Crossing - 98/142

[vale9001]

15 minutes ago, CJohn said:

Some places say 43M.

Deadline wrote 24M in the last report so it's kinda of official.

 

No way they spent 43M with this cast and a debuting director. For how the trailer looks the only reason for a 40M+ budget would have been someone like Emma Stone as the lead 😄

 

 

Edited July 14, 2022 by vale9001

[katnisscinnaplex]

22 hours ago, katnisscinnaplex said:

Movie	Day	Area	TC	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Crawdads	T-1	Jax	6	24	40	202	2,337	8.64%
		Phx	5	19	26	93	2,273	4.09%
		Ral	7	29	74	413	2,784	14.83%
ATP: 11.96	Total		18	72	140	708	7,394	9.58%
Crawdads (EA)	T-0	Jax	1	2	1	54	222	24.32%
	Total		1	2	1	54	222	24.32%
Easter Sunday	T-22	Jax	6	15	0	5	2,232	0.22%
		Phx	3	9	-1	0	1,134	0.00%
		Ral	7	16	0	4	1,976	0.20%
	Total		16	40	-1	9	5,342	0.17%
Mrs. Harris	T-1	Jax	4	8	9	18	376	4.79%
		Phx	2	4	7	12	190	6.32%
		Ral	3	4	4	21	401	5.24%
	Total		9	16	20	51	967	5.27%
Nope	T-8	Jax	7	50	11	123	8,422	1.46%
		Phx	6	20	3	194	4,344	4.47%
		Ral	8	28	10	178	3,670	4.85%
	Total		21	98	24	495	16,436	3.01%
Paws of Fury	T-1	Jax	6	27	7	24	2,550	0.94%
		Phx	5	17	14	37	1,797	2.06%
		Ral	6	17	10	38	1,811	2.10%
ATP: 10.91	Total		17	61	31	99	6,158	1.61%
Super Pets	T-15	Jax	6	38	6	6	4,934	0.12%
		Phx	5	23	10	10	3,483	0.29%
		Ral	7	24	3	3	3,404	0.09%
ATP: 13.88	Total		18	85	19	19	11,821	0.16%

 

 

Still just the one location with EA tonight, but they added a second showing.  Pretty modest numbers for Crawdads yesterday; perhaps this will let other regions without the book fan rush catch up a little.

 

Crawdads T-1 comps

 - Elvis - .823x (2.63m)

 - Dune - .402x (2.05m)

 - Uncharted - .758x (2.8m)

 - Black Phone - 1.65x (4.29m)

 - Halloween Kills - .5x (2.43m)

 - Ghostbusters - .505x (2.1m)

 - Dear Evan Hansen - 4.88x (2.93m)

 - West Side Story - 3.83x (3.06m)

 - Death on the Nile - 2.84x (3.13m)

 - Marry Me - 5.02x (2.64m)

 - Dog - 7.08x (8.92m)

 - Lost City - 1.466x (3.66m)

 - Downton + EA - 1.33x (1.4m)

 

Paws of Fury T-1 comps

 - Bad Guys - .651x (749k)

 - Peter Rabbit - .925x (833k)

 - Paw Patrol (Fri) - .128x (577k)

 - Encanto (Tue) - .319x (479k)

 - Ron's Gone Wrong - 3.81x (914k)

 

Mrs. Harris T-1 comps

 - Stillwater - 1.085x (304k)

 - Respect - .486x (316k)

 - House of Gucci - .14x (183k)

 - Spencer - 1.02x

 

Nope T-8 comps

 - Ghostbusters - .903x (3.75m)

 - NTTD - .84x (4.37m)

 - Suicide Squad - 1.45x (5.93m)

 - F9 - .55x (3.9m)

 - Morbius - .68x (3.85m)

 - Dune - .666x (3.4m)

 

Super Pets T-15 comps

 - Minions 2 - .077x (824k)

 - Sonic 2 - .063x (313k)

 

Very early and nothing to worry about.

Movie	Day	Area	TC	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Crawdads	T-0	Jax	6	24	80	282	2,337	12.07%
		Phx	6	19	59	152	2,273	6.69%
		Ral	7	29	119	532	2,784	19.11%
	Total		19	72	258	966	7,394	13.06%
Easter Sunday	T-21	Jax	6	15	0	5	2,232	0.22%
		Phx	3	9	0	0	1,134	0.00%
		Ral	7	16	-4	0	1,976	0.00%
	Total		16	40	-4	5	5,342	0.09%
Mrs. Harris	T-0	Jax	4	8	4	22	376	5.85%
		Phx	2	4	2	14	190	7.37%
		Ral	4	5	2	23	459	5.01%
	Total		10	17	8	59	1,025	5.76%
Nope	T-7	Jax	6	49	4	125	8,253	1.51%
		Phx	6	20	11	205	4,344	4.72%
		Ral	8	28	18	196	3,670	5.34%
	Total		20	97	33	526	16,267	3.23%
Paws of Fury	T-0	Jax	6	27	18	42	2,550	1.65%
		Phx	5	17	9	46	1,797	2.56%
		Ral	7	20	7	45	2,063	2.18%
	Total		18	64	34	133	6,410	2.07%
Super Pets	T-14	Jax	6	38	0	6	4,934	0.12%
		Phx	5	23	0	10	3,483	0.29%
		Ral	7	24	4	7	3,404	0.21%
	Total		18	85	4	23	11,821	0.19%
Vengeance	T-14	Jax	3	4	2	2	286	0.70%
		Phx	3	6	0	0	850	0.00%
		Ral	4	4	0	0	317	0.00%
	Total		10	14	2	2	1,453	0.14%

 

Crawdads T-0 comps

 - Elvis - .838x (2.68m)

 - Dune - .437x (2.23m)

 - Uncharted - .768x (2.84m)

 - Black Phone - 1.43x (3.72m)

 - Halloween Kills - .533x (2.59m)

 - Ghostbusters - .539x (2.24m)

 - Dear Evan Hansen - 4.95x (2.97m)

 - West Side Story - 3.3x (2.64m)

 - Death on the Nile - 2.86x (3.14m)

 - Marry Me - 5.52x (2.9m)

 - Dog - 7.26x (9.15m)

 - Lost City - 1.41x (3.52m)

 - Downton + EA - .744x (1.34m)

 - Respect - 6.44x (4.19m)

 - X - 4.332x (1.91m)

 

I'm really struggling with where to project this.  No idea how much Raleigh is over-indexing, but I have to factor that in some.  For my early guess, I'll go with 2.2m for true Thursday.

 

Paws of Fury T-0 comps

 - Bad Guys - .613x (705k)

 - Peter Rabbit - .516x (464k)

 - Paw Patrol (Fri) - .095x (429k)

 - Encanto (Tue) - .294 (441k)

 - Ron's Gone Wrong - 4.43x (1.06m)

 

With it being summer, I'll give it a little boost for walkups.  Let's say 550k for previews.

 

Mrs. Harris T-0 comps

 - Stillwater - 881x (247k)

 - Respect - .393x (256k)

 - House of Gucci - .13x (169k)

 - Spencer - .819x

 

Should be around 250k.

 

Nope T-7 comps

 - Ghostbusters - .912x (3.78m)

 - NTTD - .767x (3.99m)

 - Suicide Squad - 1.33x (5.45m)

 - F9 - .545x (3.87m)

 - Morbius - .67x (3.82m)

 - Dune - .64x (3.26m)

 - Halloween Kills - 1.218x (5.91m)

 

Super Pets T-14 comps

 - Minions 2 - .086x (923k)

 - Sonic 2 - .072x (357k)

[John2015]

"Mrs Harris Goes to Paris" got negative review from NY Times.    (A negative review from NY Times is a terrible news for arthouse film, since many older audience still read NY Times)

 

[filmlover]

11 minutes ago, John2015 said:

"Mrs Harris Goes to Paris" got negative review from NY Times.    (A negative review from NY Times is a terrible news for arthouse film, since many older audience still read NY Times)

 

The movie's reviews are really positive overall but won't make much of a difference regardless. Focus has dumped it with a minimal marketing campaign and a low theater count and while I love Lesley Manville, she's not an obvious screen legend who would draw in a particular audience of older women like Judi Dench or Helen Mirren.

[katnisscinnaplex]

22 hours ago, katnisscinnaplex said:

Santikos Tracking

 

By format

 

Day	Movie	Format	Shows	New	Sold	True Cap	% Sold	ATP	Gross
T-8	Nope	PLF	21	6	127	5,307	2.39%	$15.59	$1,979.94
		Standard	22	6	53	2,875	1.84%	$10.61	$562.56
	Nope Total		43	12	180	8,182	2.20%	$14.13	$2,542.50

 

By matinee

 

Day	Movie	Mat	Shows	New	Sold	True Cap	% Sold	ATP	Gross
T-1	Crawdads	N	26	90	265	2,584	10.26%	$12.21	$3,235.44
		Y	11	37	109	1,080	10.09%	$8.96	$976.61
	Total		37	127	374	3,664	10.21%	$11.26	$4,212.05
T-1	Mrs. Harris	N	4	5	17	241	7.05%	$12.99	$220.83
	Total		4	5	17	241	7.05%	$12.99	$220.83
T-1	Paws of Fury	N	20	6	23	1,890	1.22%	$11.21	$257.85
		Y	10	0	8	945	0.85%	$8.80	$70.36
	Total		30	6	31	2,835	1.09%	$10.59	$328.21
T-8	Nope	N	33	8	144	6,279	2.29%	$15.04	$2,166.03
		Y	10	4	36	1,903	1.89%	$10.46	$376.47
	Total		43	12	180	8,182	2.20%	$14.13	$2,542.50

 

Crawdads T-1 comp

 - Northman - 2.35x (3.175m)

 - Downton - 1.989x (1.99m)

 

I didn't look at Black Phone until T-0; it had 754 tickets sold which I think is a good target for Crawdads.

 

Paws of Fury T-1 comp

 - The Bad Guys - .344x (396k)

 

Nope T-8 comps

 - TG2 - .091x (1.33m)

 - FB3 - .307x (1.84m)

 - JW3 - .055x (998k)

 

Bad Guys is probably the only actual comp I like; just putting what I can find for the others.  I don't usually track until final week, but with no huge openers coming I have some time on my hands.

Santikos Tracking

 

By format

 

Day	Movie	Format	Shows	New	Sold	True Cap	% Sold	ATP	Gross
T-7	Nope	PLF	21	16	143	5,307	2.69%	$15.48	$2,213.52
		Standard	22	4	57	2,875	1.98%	$10.73	$611.81
	Nope Total		43	20	200	8,182	2.44%	$14.13	$2,825.33

 

By matinee

 

Day	Movie	Mat	Shows	New	Sold	True Cap	% Sold	ATP	Gross
T-0	Crawdads	N	32	84	349	3,237	10.78%	$12.26	$4,279.46
		Y	11	56	165	1,080	15.28%	$9.07	$1,497.21
	Crawdads Total		43	140	514	4,317	11.91%	$11.24	$5,776.67
T-0	Mrs. Harris	N	3	10	27	205	13.17%	$12.99	$350.73
	Mrs. Harris Total		3	10	27	205	13.17%	$12.99	$350.73
T-0	Paws of Fury	N	20	35	58	1,890	3.07%	$11.56	$670.49
		Y	10	22	30	945	3.17%	$8.65	$259.53
	Paws of Fury Total		30	57	88	2,835	3.10%	$10.57	$930.02
T-7	Nope	N	33	13	157	6,279	2.50%	$15.07	$2,365.76
		Y	10	7	43	1,903	2.26%	$10.69	$459.57
	Nope Total		43	20	200	8,182	2.44%	$14.13	$2,825.33

 

Crawdads T-0 comp

 - Northman - 2.23x (3m)

 - Downton - 2.13x (2.13m)

 - Black Phone - .682x (1.77m)

 - Elvis - .371x (1.19m)

 

Didn't get close to matching Black Phone.   I am a little concerned with this finish, especially with Santikos not offering any early access shows.  For my Santikos prediction I'll go with 1.9m for true Thursday

 

Paws of Fury T-0 comp

 - The Bad Guys - .583x (670k)

 

Made up a lot of ground in the last day. Let's go with 650k.

 

Nope T-7 comps

 - TG2 - .095x (1.39m)

 - FB3 - .302x (1.81m)

 - JW3 - missed

[ThatWaluigiDude]

Random, but right now Paws of Fury have the same rotten score as Thor Love and Thunder.

[M37]

34 minutes ago, katnisscinnaplex said:

Movie	Day	Area	TC	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Crawdads	T-0	Jax	6	24	80	282	2,337	12.07%
		Phx	6	19	59	152	2,273	6.69%
		Ral	7	29	119	532	2,784	19.11%
	Total		19	72	258	966	7,394	13.06%
Easter Sunday	T-21	Jax	6	15	0	5	2,232	0.22%
		Phx	3	9	0	0	1,134	0.00%
		Ral	7	16	-4	0	1,976	0.00%
	Total		16	40	-4	5	5,342	0.09%
Mrs. Harris	T-0	Jax	4	8	4	22	376	5.85%
		Phx	2	4	2	14	190	7.37%
		Ral	4	5	2	23	459	5.01%
	Total		10	17	8	59	1,025	5.76%
Nope	T-7	Jax	6	49	4	125	8,253	1.51%
		Phx	6	20	11	205	4,344	4.72%
		Ral	8	28	18	196	3,670	5.34%
	Total		20	97	33	526	16,267	3.23%
Paws of Fury	T-0	Jax	6	27	18	42	2,550	1.65%
		Phx	5	17	9	46	1,797	2.56%
		Ral	7	20	7	45	2,063	2.18%
	Total		18	64	34	133	6,410	2.07%
Super Pets	T-14	Jax	6	38	0	6	4,934	0.12%
		Phx	5	23	0	10	3,483	0.29%
		Ral	7	24	4	7	3,404	0.21%
	Total		18	85	4	23	11,821	0.19%
Vengeance	T-14	Jax	3	4	2	2	286	0.70%
		Phx	3	6	0	0	850	0.00%
		Ral	4	4	0	0	317	0.00%
	Total		10	14	2	2	1,453	0.14%

 

Crawdads T-0 comps

 - Elvis - .838x (2.68m)

 - Dune - .437x (2.23m)

 - Uncharted - .768x (2.84m)

 - Black Phone - 1.43x (3.72m)

 - Halloween Kills - .533x (2.59m)

 - Ghostbusters - .539x (2.24m)

 - Dear Evan Hansen - 4.95x (2.97m)

 - West Side Story - 3.3x (2.64m)

 - Death on the Nile - 2.86x (3.14m)

 - Marry Me - 5.52x (2.9m)

 - Dog - 7.26x (9.15m)

 - Lost City - 1.41x (3.52m)

 - Downton + EA - .744x (1.34m)

 - Respect - 6.44x (4.19m)

 - X - 4.332x (1.91m)

 

I'm really struggling with where to project this.  No idea how much Raleigh is over-indexing, but I have to factor that in some.  For my early guess, I'll go with 2.2m for true Thursday.

 

Paws of Fury T-0 comps

 - Bad Guys - .613x (705k)

 - Peter Rabbit - .516x (464k)

 - Paw Patrol (Fri) - .095x (429k)

 - Encanto (Tue) - .294 (441k)

 - Ron's Gone Wrong - 4.43x (1.06m)

 

With it being summer, I'll give it a little boost for walkups.  Let's say 550k for previews.

 

Mrs. Harris T-0 comps

 - Stillwater - 881x (247k)

 - Respect - .393x (256k)

 - House of Gucci - .13x (169k)

 - Spencer - .819x

 

Should be around 250k.

 

Nope T-7 comps

 - Ghostbusters - .912x (3.78m)

 - NTTD - .767x (3.99m)

 - Suicide Squad - 1.33x (5.45m)

 - F9 - .545x (3.87m)

 - Morbius - .67x (3.82m)

 - Dune - .64x (3.26m)

 - Halloween Kills - 1.218x (5.91m)

 

Super Pets T-14 comps

 - Minions 2 - .086x (923k)

 - Sonic 2 - .072x (357k)

 

On 6/23/2022 at 5:48 PM, katnisscinnaplex said:

Movie	Day	Area	TC	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Black Phone	1-Hr	Jax	6	23	182	361	2,416	14.94%
		Phx	7	26	150	453	3,479	13.02%
		Ral	7	17	143	337	1,842	18.30%
	Total		20	66	475	1,151	7,737	14.88%
Elvis	1-Hr	Jax	7	33	180	556	5,349	10.39%
		Phx	7	25	116	515	2,880	17.88%
		Ral	8	21	147	525	2,146	24.46%
	Total		22	79	443	1,596	10,375	15.38%

 

 

On pace for ~1400 total sales total for Thursday for your markets, which would be 0.875 of Elvis Thursday, but only like 0.65 for Jax + Pho (removing Raleigh altogether). Though Elvis may not even be a great comp, given the expected large discrepancy in age for the respective audiences, and whole lot of retirees in those 2 markets

 

On 6/21/2022 at 10:49 PM, keysersoze123 said:

Elvis Early Shows Final

MTC1 - 10383/15206 234287.58 81 shows

MTC2 -  5569/8236 87206.50 41 shows

 

Not much of a growth today but its already sold well enough. Thinking ~ 0.5-0.6m early shows. 

 

One other potential way to view the data would be just using the EA numbers, which largely removes market variance.  If the ratio between EA and Thur previews were to remain roughly the same (and it may not, especially given the Tue vs Wed playdate and limited showings), then the $300K EA you calculated for Crawdads suggests a total preview of under $2M, half of Elvis's $3.5M. That's what Eric's Philly numbers are showing, and those Phoenix sales are pretty soft too

 

I have a hunch Crawdads is going to play fairly white and Southern - does that line up with the breakdown of sales by markets for the EA shows?