The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread (December 2021 - July 2023)

[poweranimals]

24 minutes ago, ThomasNicole said:

Unless it ended up being frontloaded for some reason, presales is showing +10M for Avatar quite easily imo. 

 

Very happy with this so far

How? Its comps are below NWH which didn't make that much.

Edited September 23, 2022 by poweranimals

[Cmasterclay]

God, what in the world happened to Bros? In 2015 that movie with those reviews opens to 30 mill, now it probably won't even hit double digits.

 

The studio comedy is deceased.

[Old Spice]

Nice Awareness bump for Adam, from 47% to 50% at 28 days out. With the marketing blitz about to crank into high gear, this should comfortably reach 55-60% by the time previews get here.

 

Aquaman-level or better reviews, which is what I'm expecting, get this into the upper end of BOP's range, IMO. And I'm not sure that even bad reviews- DWD, for example- would hamper it that much OW.

[ThomasNicole]

3 minutes ago, poweranimals said:

How? Its comps are below NWH which didn't make that much.

What? Most numbers here are above NWH, in some places quite a lot above it. 

 

The few ones below seems to be the exceptions.

[snarkmachine]

5 minutes ago, Cmasterclay said:

God, what in the world happened to Bros? In 2015 that movie with those reviews opens to 30 mill, now it probably won't even hit double digits.

 

The studio comedy is deceased.

 

Would help if it had a star. 

[ThomasNicole]

DWD looks like a B cinemascore to me

 

Which tbh isn't awful for R Rated movies

[Eric Prime]

9 minutes ago, Cmasterclay said:

God, what in the world happened to Bros? In 2015 that movie with those reviews opens to 30 mill, now it probably won't even hit double digits.

 

The studio comedy is deceased.

I hate to say this, but if Eichner had Ryan Reynolds or Seth Rogen as his love interest, people would be lining up. Star power is back and necessary for non-franchise films like this

[charlie Jatinder]

12 minutes ago, Cmasterclay said:

God, what in the world happened to Bros? In 2015 that movie with those reviews opens to 30 mill, now it probably won't even hit double digits.

 

The studio comedy is deceased.

Don't think double digit is dead yet.

[CJohn]

3.1M previews, Yikes.

[poweranimals]

7 minutes ago, ThomasNicole said:

What? Most numbers here are above NWH, in some places quite a lot above it. 

 

The few ones below seems to be the exceptions.

Admitedly, I only looked at a couple of the more recent ones but it was at like around 0.3 of NWH.

[JustLurking]

13 minutes ago, poweranimals said:

Admitedly, I only looked at a couple of the more recent ones but it was at like around 0.3 of NWH.

Bro, that .03 NWH is not the re-release, Lol.

[Krissykins]

If Bros misses $10m and Smile opens under $15m I think there’s a bit of a problem. 
 

Especially with Woman King and Don’t Worry Darling (potentially) missing $20m. 

[Krissykins]

28 minutes ago, CJohn said:

3.1M previews, Yikes.

Is 3.1m previews really a “Yikes” for a an R rated original film with a $35m budget? 
 

Or are you being a bit hysterical? 

Edited September 23, 2022 by Krissykins

[AJG]

51 minutes ago, Cmasterclay said:

God, what in the world happened to Bros? In 2015 that movie with those reviews opens to 30 mill, now it probably won't even hit double digits.

 

The studio comedy is deceased.

 

It's gonna go Platinum on Peacock.

[Porthos]

4 hours ago, Legion By Night said:

There’s no hard line. I think they were 7previews/70 OW prepandemic but started taking swings at 4/40 during recovery.

 

5/50, was the target during recovery, but otherwise yes.  Long past the time I was thinking about that though.

 

(FWIW, Eric's Quorum numbers are also factoring into the decision to track)

[Issac Newton]

$2.5M Domestic Pre-sales for Avatar

 

95% are from 3D

[BoxOfficeFangrl]

1 hour ago, Eric from Progressive said:

I hate to say this, but if Eichner had Ryan Reynolds or Seth Rogen as his love interest, people would be lining up. Star power is back and necessary for non-franchise films like this

A big narrative of Bros is that all the actors were already out. Even if they had gotten Matt Bomer or the second Bridgerton guy instead, Billy Eichner's humor just isn't for everyone.

 

Also, the movie's actual love interest Luke Macfarlane is best known for Hallmark movies. Even with Hallmark being more inclusive now and driving off the bigots to a splinter channel, their content is still extremely tame. So you in Bros, you have a raunchy comedy where the star is probably maxing out his fanbase and the other lead's fans are accustomed to watching G-rated romances on basic cable.

 

Some theaters will do great and others are going to be absolute deserts.

 

 

Edited September 23, 2022 by BoxOfficeFangrl

[JustLurking]

I honestly don't think Bros was ever going to open to 30M? Reviews are good and all but from the trailer spillover chances seem pretty low. Will do great in its target demographic and very poorly outside of it I'm afraid. Still think double digit is possible, by the way.

[Eric Prime]

21 minutes ago, BoxOfficeFangrl said:

A big narrative of Bros is that all the actors were already out. Even if they had gotten Matt Bomer or the second Bridgerton guy instead, Billy Eichner's humor just isn't for everyone.

 

Also, the movie's actual love interest Luke Macfarlane is best known for Hallmark movies. Even with Hallmark being more inclusive now and driving off the bigots to a splinter channel, their content is still extremely tame. So you in Bros, you have a raunchy comedy where the star is probably maxing out his fanbase and the other lead's fans are accustomed to watching G-rated romances on basic cable.

 

Some theaters will do great and others are going to be absolute deserts.

 

 

Oh I know what Billy's intentions are with this movie and I much prefer that than having some icky straight muck everything up. Just feels like that very concept inherently made it more niche and more scary with the straights who would have normally turned up. There's a reason why Philadelphia and The Birdcage made the money they made.

[filmlover]

1 hour ago, Cmasterclay said:

God, what in the world happened to Bros? In 2015 that movie with those reviews opens to 30 mill, now it probably won't even hit double digits.

 

The studio comedy is deceased.

Nothing has gone "wrong" really. For a movie completely devoid of star power (Eichner isn't even close to an A-lister and even considering the relative paucity of big name LGBTQ actors, the rest of the cast is really low-profile), $50M total always would've been a win.