The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread (December 2021 - July 2023)

[GOGODanca]

Thursday Previews from local AMCs

 

Bros: 21 tickets sold across 21 showtimes

 

Smile: 72 tickets sold across 22 showtimes

[WrathOfHan]

1 hour ago, Babylon XXR said:

 

The last OP film made under $1.3M DOM. Why would this one open to $10M+??

Because it's actually getting a proper release that isn't two nights only and and important to the story

[SchumacherFTW]

7 minutes ago, WrathOfHan said:

Because it's actually getting a proper release that isn't two nights only and and important to the story

Ohhhhhh, that's why it's blowing up in Japan this time, nobody in the Japan thread have me an answer 😅

[GOGODanca]

6 minutes ago, SchumacherFTW said:

Ohhhhhh, that's why it's blowing up in Japan this time, nobody in the Japan thread have me an answer 😅

It blew up in Japan cause ado did the music +shanks + no competition + multiple holiday weekends

 

I'd be shocked if Red did even as well as MHA did in the states

[Cooper Legion]

It is certainly the commercially strongest one piece movie yet by a wide margin, but it's not canon. And some of the factors fueling Japan success are relatively Japan specific. I think 10M Dom total is a solid target.

[JustLurking]

OP isn't all that popular in the US. In fact, relative to market size, it might be one of its weakest markest worldwide. Manga sales wise it's not even remotely close to the top sellers. 10M total would be great, I agree.

[Issac Newton]

5 hours ago, Legion By Night said:

It is certainly the commercially strongest one piece movie yet by a wide margin, but it's not canon. And some of the factors fueling Japan success are relatively Japan specific. I think 10M Dom total is a solid target.

You had the same projection for JJK too back in March. Did 3.45x of that $10M projection of yours.

 

Last film didn't even get a proper release. This time RED is getting one atleast at similar location of SH, rather than JJK &DS. I would be shocked if it doesn't do $40M DOM...

 

Spoiler

Though, I am still assuming $300M as performance is very unlikely to comparable with previous films

[charlie Jatinder]

Harkins SAT

 

Don't Worry Darling - 9961/73528 (278 showings) $106,835

Probably will add another 50-100. Around 10% drop from yesterday. Better than what pre-sales would have suggested. Around $5.7-5.8M expecting.

 

Avatar - 6976/44332 (199 showings) $90,000

 

Brilliant. Around +20% y'day. I didn't expect this much growth. Probably $3.8-4M.

[katnisscinnaplex]

23 hours ago, katnisscinnaplex said:

Santikos Tracking

 

By format

 

Day	Movie	Format	Shows	New	Sold	True Cap	% Sold	ATP	Gross
T-0	Avatar (Sat)	PLF	34	156	550	5,340	10.30%	$16.39	$9,013.64
		Standard	12	35	76	1,604	4.74%	$9.53	$724.13
	Total		46	191	626	6,944	9.01%	$15.56	$9,737.77
	Don't Worry (Sat)	PLF	16	71	246	4,175	5.89%	$14.14	$3,478.65
		Standard	68	183	357	8,645	4.13%	$11.26	$4,020.97
	Total		84	254	603	12,820	4.70%	$12.44	$7,499.62

 

By matinee

 

Day	Movie	Mat	Shows	New	Sold	True Cap	% Sold	ATP	Gross
T-0	Avatar (Sat)	N	24	99	333	3,872	8.60%	$18.22	$6,067.17
		Y	22	92	293	3,072	9.54%	$12.53	$3,670.60
	Total		46	191	626	6,944	9.01%	$15.56	$9,737.77
	Don't Worry (Sat)	N	41	137	336	6,014	5.59%	$14.17	$4,759.53
		Y	43	117	267	6,806	3.92%	$10.26	$2,740.09
	Total		84	254	603	12,820	4.70%	$12.44	$7,499.62

 

Don't Worry Sat comps

Crawdads - .741x (3.97m)

Elvis - .241x (2.39m)

Black Phone - .491x (3.69m)

Bullet Train - .598x (5.79m)

Nope - .327x (4.56m)

 

Adjusted comps (using 6.5m True Fri)

Crawdads - 4.48m

Elvis - 4.71m

Black Phone - 5.88m

Bullet Train - 4.76m

Nope - 4.8m

 

Looking like around 4.75m Saturday.  (Almost too confident in this...here are some other adj comps:  NWH 4.74, Batman 4.79, JW3 4.89, TG2 4.94, DBZ 4.88)

 

 

Avatar Sat comps

JW3 - .04x (1.9m)

NWH - .03x (2.18m)

 

Adjusted comps (using 3.7m Fri)

JW3 - 3.41m

NWH - 3.3m

TG2 - 3.44m

 

(Similar story with most comps in the 3.2-3.5m range)

Santikos Tracking

 

By format

 

Day	Movie	Format	Shows	New	Sold	True Cap	% Sold	ATP	Gross
T-0	Avatar (Sun)	PLF	34	300	300	5,340	5.62%	$16.38	$4,912.95
		Standard	13	67	67	1,654	4.05%	$9.24	$618.87
	Total		47	367	367	6,994	5.25%	$15.07	$5,531.82
	Don't Worry (Sun)	PLF	15	143	143	3,881	3.68%	$13.14	$1,878.96
		Standard	63	217	217	8,095	2.68%	$9.94	$2,156.48
	Total		78	360	360	11,976	3.01%	$11.21	$4,035.44

 

By matinee

 

Day	Movie	Mat	Shows	New	Sold	True Cap	% Sold	ATP	Gross
T-0	Avatar (Sun)	N	25	170	170	3,922	4.33%	$18.91	$3,215.35
		Y	22	197	197	3,072	6.41%	$11.76	$2,316.47
	Total		47	367	367	6,994	5.25%	$15.07	$5,531.82
	Don't Worry (Sun)	N	36	106	106	5,266	2.01%	$14.12	$1,496.69
		Y	42	254	254	6,710	3.79%	$10.00	$2,538.75
	Total		78	360	360	11,976	3.01%	$11.21	$4,035.44

 

Don't Worry Sun comps

Crawdads - .52x (2.41m)

Elvis - .154x (1.32m)

Black Phone - .383x (2.25m)

Bullet Train - .483x (3.62m)

Nope - .337x (3.67m)

 

Adjusted comps (using latest estimates)

Crawdads - 3.07m

Elvis - 2.84m

Black Phone - 3.48m

Bullet Train - 3.24m

Nope - 4.19m

 

Saturday looks to be coming in well ahead of Santikos comps, so maybe Sunday sees something like ~3.7m

 

 

Avatar Sun comps

JW3 - .028x (1.066m)

NWH - .018x (1.17m)

 

Adjusted comps (using latest estimates)

JW3 - 1.96m

NWH - 1.84m

TG2 - 2.14m

[katnisscinnaplex]

On 9/24/2022 at 9:32 AM, katnisscinnaplex said:

Movie	Day	Area	TC	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Bros	T-5	Jax	5	11	0	7	955	0.73%
		Phx	6	12	1	18	1,825	0.99%
		Ral	7	14	0	10	1,663	0.60%
	Total		18	37	1	35	4,443	0.79%
Smile	T-5	Jax	5	11	0	26	1,643	1.58%
		Phx	6	10	-6	40	1,915	2.09%
		Ral	7	10	-1	26	1,481	1.76%
	Total		18	31	-7	92	5,039	1.83%
Smile (EA)	T-3	Jax	3	3	2	66	276	23.91%
		Phx	1	1	6	29	123	23.58%
		Ral	2	2	5	34	318	10.69%
	Total		6	6	13	129	717	17.99%

 

Bros T-5 comp

 - Easter Sunday - .714x (357k)

 - Dear Evan Hansen - .556x (333k)

 

Smile T-5 comps

 - Black Phone - .586x (1.52m)

 - Nope - .146x (938k)

 - Night House - 6.13x (1.59m)

 - Crawdads - .291x (582k)

 - Resident Evil - 1.26x (1.18m)

 

Smile (EA) T-3 comps

 - Black Phone (EA) - missed

 - Bullet Train (EA) - .949x (1.19m)

 - Crawdads (EA) - 3.58x (1.08m)

Movie	Day	Area	TC	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Bros	T-4	Jax	5	11	0	7	955	0.73%
		Phx	6	12	0	18	1,825	0.99%
		Ral	7	14	0	10	1,663	0.60%
	Total		18	37	0	35	4,443	0.79%
Lyle Lyle	T-11	Jax	5	33	5	5	3,572	0.14%
		Phx	6	15	5	5	2,298	0.22%
		Ral	7	19	1	1	2,705	0.04%
	Total		18	67	11	11	8,575	0.13%
Smile	T-4	Jax	5	11	0	26	1,643	1.58%
		Phx	6	10	0	40	1,915	2.09%
		Ral	7	10	0	26	1,481	1.76%
	Total		18	31	0	92	5,039	1.83%
Smile (EA)	T-2	Jax	3	3	11	77	276	27.90%
		Phx	1	1	4	33	123	26.83%
		Ral	2	2	0	34	318	10.69%
	Total		6	6	15	144	717	20.08%

 

Bros T-4 comp

 - Easter Sunday - .614x (307k)

 - Dear Evan Hansen - .479x (288k)

 - Father Stu - .389x (214k)

 

Smile T-4 comps

 - Black Phone - missed

 - Nope - .129x (826k)

 - Night House - 5.412x (1.41m)

 - Crawdads - .268x (536k)

 - Resident Evil - .911x (852k)

 

Smile + EA T-4 comps

 - Black Phone + EA - missed

 - Bullet Train + EA - .45x (2.07m)

 - Crawdads + EA - .623x (1.43m)

 - Nope - .331x (2.12m)

 

Lyle Lyle T-11 comp

 - Super Pets - .275x (605k)

Edited September 25, 2022 by katnisscinnaplex
Added Lyle comp

[Krissykins]

Wow, those Bros numbers are downright depressing. Looking like it’s going to bomb with mid single digits?? 
 

Smile should easily win next weekend, but doesn’t look like the breakout I was expecting. 

[Flopped]

Just now, Krissykins said:

Wow, those Bros numbers are downright depressing. Looking like it’s going to bomb with mid single digits?? 
 

Smile should easily win next weekend, but doesn’t look like the breakout I was expecting. 

Do you think it's because of the gay content or just romcoms not selling like they used to? 

 

What did you consider a "breakout" for Smile? 20M? 

[Krissykins]

1 minute ago, Flopped said:

Do you think it's because of the gay content or just romcoms not selling like they used to? 

 

What did you consider a "breakout" for Smile? 20M? 

I honestly don’t know why Bros is looking to bomb so hard. Would hope it’s not because of the gay content, but unfortunately we know what around half of America is like. 
 

Smile I always thought could breakout and do $30m. The trailer gets a reaction every time and Paramount have been mostly on a roll this year. Teens will still be great, it’s rated R and cheap, but I just had a feeling it could go big. 

[Eric Prime]

34 minutes ago, Flopped said:

Do you think it's because of the gay content or just romcoms not selling like they used to? 

 

What did you consider a "breakout" for Smile? 20M? 

 

31 minutes ago, Krissykins said:

I honestly don’t know why Bros is looking to bomb so hard. Would hope it’s not because of the gay content, but unfortunately we know what around half of America is like. 
 

Smile I always thought could breakout and do $30m. The trailer gets a reaction every time and Paramount have been mostly on a roll this year. Teens will still be great, it’s rated R and cheap, but I just had a feeling it could go big. 

Because there’s no big movie star in the center. The original movies/movies that don’t have a big IP attached to them that have opened huge all have big actors in the front and center. You could also make the argument for stuff like Woman King and even Crawdads (Reese Witherspoon got more promo as a producer than the actors in the movie), though those movies obviously didn’t have the openings of something like Bullet Train or Lost City.

 

If Ryan Reynolds or Kevin Hart was the star or played Eichner’s co-lead, this would have cleared 15M+. Maybe even 20M. Sad but true

[filmlover]

Honestly the biggest issue facing Bros IMO is that the marketing for it isn't really funny. I mean good for them for apparently hiding the funniest bits for when people see the movie, but the trailer seems to only include predictable one-liners ("Gay sex was more fun when straight people were uncomfortable with it." *groan*). Still thinking it hits double digits at least though.

[BestPicturePlutoNash]

1 hour ago, Eric from Progressive said:

 

Because there’s no big movie star in the center. The original movies/movies that don’t have a big IP attached to them that have opened huge all have big actors in the front and center. You could also make the argument for stuff like Woman King and even Crawdads (Reese Witherspoon got more promo as a producer than the actors in the movie), though those movies obviously didn’t have the openings of something like Bullet Train or Lost City.

 

If Ryan Reynolds or Kevin Hart was the star or played Eichner’s co-lead, this would have cleared 15M+. Maybe even 20M. Sad but true

Yeah. But not just that, Bros isn't high-concept. I thought the LGBT narrative could help elevate the lack of genre, but there hasn't been any evidence of that happening yet, especially without a star or previous audience (Crawdads, etc)

 

Just looking at the biggest non-IP openers:

Nope- Jordan Peele (Peele is biggest draw here in addition to genre. Even then, Kaluuya and Palmer are more famous than Eichner)

Lost City- Sandra Bullock + Channing Tatum + Brad Pitt

Free Guy- Ryan Reynolds

Don't Worry Darling- Harry Styles (Olivia Wilde, Chris Pine, Florence Pugh)

Dog- Channing Tatum

The Northman- Nicole Kidman, Anya Taylor Joy (not draws but the cast was all famous)

Beast- Idris Elba (and the concept)

Moonfall- Halle Berry (but again, the concept)

Tenet- Christoper Nolan (Pattinson)

 

Barbarian is only one without a star (Justin Long isn't) but again, genre horror

 

And this doesn't even include The Woman King (Viola Davis), etc. Even Bullet Train, although based on book, still had Pitt front and center and famous faces all over the ensemble. Whatever Amsterdam opens to, it's because of that cast

[Eric Prime]

2 minutes ago, BestPicturePlutoNash said:

Yeah. But not just that, Bros isn't high-concept. I thought the LGBT narrative could help elevate the lack of genre, but there hasn't been any evidence of that happening yet, especially without a star or previous audience (Crawdads, etc)

 

Just looking at the biggest non-IP openers:

Nope- Jordan Peele (Peele is biggest draw here in addition to genre. Even then, Kaluuya and Palmer are more famous than Eichner)

Lost City- Sandra Bullock + Channing Tatum + Brad Pitt

Free Guy- Ryan Reynolds

Don't Worry Darling- Harry Styles (Olivia Wilde, Chris Pine, Florence Pugh)

Dog- Channing Tatum

The Northman- Nicole Kidman, Anya Taylor Joy (not draws but the cast was all famous)

Beast- Idris Elba (and the concept)

Moonfall- Halle Berry (but again, the concept)

Tenet- Christoper Nolan (Pattinson)

 

Barbarian is only one without a star (Justin Long isn't) but again, genre horror

 

And this doesn't even include The Woman King (Viola Davis), etc. Even Bullet Train, although based on book, still had Pitt front and center and famous faces all over the ensemble. Whatever Amsterdam opens to, it's because of that cast

Not sure concept does anything. Beast and Moonfall and Northman opened to no1curr numbers, below most of the other ones you mentioned, and they had no big draws behind it, director or actor (for the record, I love all the stars in those movies, this is not a diss). That means something

[BestPicturePlutoNash]

2 minutes ago, Eric from Progressive said:

Not sure concept does anything. Beast and Moonfall and Northman opened to no1curr numbers, below most of the other ones you mentioned, and they had no big draws behind it, director or actor (for the record, I love all the stars in those movies, this is not a diss). That means something

They're not great numbers but they're still higher than the average non-IP opener. Audiences are more willing to at least give a chance to something like Beast or Moonfall because of the genre or concept than they are something like Bros or a drama/comedy without a name or selling point evidently 

[filmlover]

Speaking of Amsterdam, I'm pretty sure I've seen more ads for that movie than DWD at this point. Think at this point it's gonna be a mini-Monuments Men where that cast is going to be irresistible to a decent-sized audience even if the reviews are bad.

[JustLurking]

A romcom with no star is hard to sell I'm afraid, and rather than homophobia (I haven't really seen much negative discourse around the film myself, but maybe I just missed it), I just think the marketing does a poor job selling it to straight people, so crossover will probably be next to none.

 

I still thought it'd do better, though. Seems to be getting shockingly low support even from gay people.