The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread (December 2021 - July 2023)

[thajdikt]

Deadline have overestimated international gross OW heavily lately. Did it with Ant-Man 3 and Wakanda Forever. Also Avatar if i´m not mistaken. Seems like they have don it here aswell. Don´t where they have gotten 12M from China...

 

 

But is sub 20M really a possible? Because that is kinda wild

[screambaby]

5 minutes ago, thajdikt said:

Deadline have overestimated international gross OW heavily lately. Did it with Ant-Man 3 and Wakanda Forever. Also Avatar if i´m not mistaken. Seems like they have don it here aswell. Don´t where they have gotten 12M from China...

 

 

But is sub 20M really a possible? Because that is kinda wild

Probably. Not. But low-mid 20s is possible

[Firepower]

38 minutes ago, belblazer said:

 

Yeah, good luck with that.

[screambaby]

1 minute ago, Firepower said:

Yeah, good luck with that.

Fitting it's going up against scream 6 since the letdown is gonna be like scream 4.

 

Edited March 14, 2023 by screambaby

[GOGODanca]

trades should unironically just hire Charlie, Keyser, Porthos, etc to do their projections for them cause they look like morons regularly

[misterpepp]

I'm late to posting these, as I was busy this morning and afternoon. Anyway, my guy is saying:

 

A Good Person tix March 17

Air tix March 24

Pope's Exorcist tix March 29

[CaptainJackSparrow]

5 hours ago, interiorgatordecorator said:

I know shazam 2 doesn't look particularly appealing, but its still a shame its flopping since the first one was the best dceu movie and better than any phase 3 mcu movie

I'd probably agree with the very last point on Phase 3 of the MCU (if I'd seen Shazam), but Civil War is great.

 

I feel bad for the director, I hope he goes back to my genre of choice: horror after this. I liked Lights Out and loved Annabelle: Creation.

[TwoMisfits]

1 hour ago, belblazer said:

 

 

Families could rep "50%" of domestic box office...really Deadline?  Maybe if the Box Office is $15M...

[Menor the Destroyer]

19 hours ago, keysersoze123 said:

Shazam 2

MTC1 previews - 29805/511940 541087.21 2570 shows

MTC1 Friday - 21065/749550 372687.15 3734 shows

MTC2 Previews - 13682/351361 184392.15 2045 shows

 

MTC2 data is as of 5PM. Thinking MTC1 previews will be at 40K wednesday and 70K finish. That should translate to 3.5m previews even with over indexing.  

I did track TSS at MTC2 and the absolute number is similar...but the pace is around 60%. Yikes. 

Edited March 15, 2023 by Menor Reborn

[Menor the Destroyer]

From a closer look at the MTC pace I feel previews are heading for 2.5-3, given that Friday looks anemic as well that would be high teens to low 20s unless the Sat bump is really good. 

[GOGODanca]

Should be frontloaded with spring break going on

[interiorgatordecorator]

Greatly reducing my aquaman 2 prediction, if the marvels is really dropping to the 600s I dont see why the same wouldnt happen to aquaman 2

[Mulder]

My hot prediction is that every DC film this year is going to do badly. Yes, even Flash. I mentioned it earlier but all the DC reboot nonsense might seem small but it's like everywhere on social media. Doing it in the particularly messy way they went about it is going to bring down everything around it imo.

[charlie Jatinder]

1 hour ago, Menor Reborn said:

I did track TSS at MTC2 and the absolute number is similar...but the pace is around 60%. Yikes. 

IIRC MTC2 was overindexing during those days. How does it compare with MTC 1.

[Ohana]

1 hour ago, Mulder said:

My hot prediction is that every DC film this year is going to do badly. Yes, even Flash. I mentioned it earlier but all the DC reboot nonsense might seem small but it's like everywhere on social media. Doing it in the particularly messy way they went about it is going to bring down everything around it imo.

The Flash is going to be a HUGE hit.

[keysersoze123]

I think Shazam will over index MTC1 and big markets with PLF/Imax grosses. Suicide Squad looks to be the best comp and that is terrible as that movie was available for free at HBO Max !!!! Warner Bros are not even trying here. They rather let it gross whatever and move on when it comes to this project or the character. 

 

I dont know what Gunn is thinking announcing projects like Creature Commandoes or Authority. I dont think GA cares for any of them and so spending big bucks on unknown characters at this point is not wise. Focus Supes, Bats, Wondy, GL and Flash and let others ride on the back of team movie before considering solo movies. 

 

I feel the peak SH era is done anyway. There will be odd breakouts and movies doing well. But the era of anything sticking is over. Audience have too many options these days for entertainment and wont go to any movie at this point. 

 

Let us see what Guardians 3 does next. Before that we thankfully have JW4 and Mario both of them looking very encouraging and I am hoping strong reviews and WOM from early shows help D&D do better than what early sales indicate. 

[John Marston]

12 minutes ago, Ohana said:

The Flash is going to be a HUGE hit.

 

 

maybe but I'd say it is not guaranteed. With an unappealing and uncharismatic lead actor, a muddled looking storyline, facing competition from Indiana Jones 5 just two weeks into its run and a supposed 300m+ budget, I'd say it is a uphill battle

[John Marston]

4 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

I think Shazam will over index MTC1 and big markets with PLF/Imax grosses. Suicide Squad looks to be the best comp and that is terrible as that movie was available for free at HBO Max !!!! Warner Bros are not even trying here. They rather let it gross whatever and move on when it comes to this project or the character. 

 

I dont know what Gunn is thinking announcing projects like Creature Commandoes or Authority. I dont think GA cares for any of them and so spending big bucks on unknown characters at this point is not wise. Focus Supes, Bats, Wondy, GL and Flash and let others ride on the back of team movie before considering solo movies. 

 

I feel the peak SH era is done anyway. There will be odd breakouts and movies doing well. But the era of anything sticking is over. Audience have too many options these days for entertainment and wont go to any movie at this point. 

 

Let us see what Guardians 3 does next. Before that we thankfully have JW4 and Mario both of them looking very encouraging and I am hoping strong reviews and WOM from early shows help D&D do better than what early sales indicate. 

 

 

aren't Creature Commandos and Authority tv shows? Which confuses me. Relying on TV to build up your universe seems like a bad idea. Apparently the Green Lanterns are going to be introduced in an HBO Max show, WTAF! 

[filmlover]

1 hour ago, Mulder said:

My hot prediction is that every DC film this year is going to do badly. Yes, even Flash. I mentioned it earlier but all the DC reboot nonsense might seem small but it's like everywhere on social media. Doing it in the particularly messy way they went about it is going to bring down everything around it imo.

Aquaman should still make money as the default tentpole for Christmas this year. Unless audiences just end up rejecting it.

[Flip]

24 minutes ago, filmlover said:

Aquaman should still make money as the default tentpole for Christmas this year. Unless audiences just end up rejecting it.

looks like that's been the consensus from test screenings, but they still have time to fix it