The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread (December 2021 - July 2023)

[Ryan Reynolds]

bought a ticket for EDR tomorrow, a early matinee, pretty full for a niche horror film, it was a premium screen , so maybe why so

[M37]

1 hour ago, keysersoze123 said:

Evil Dead Rises Previews final - 48646/148478 758808.98 1003 shows

 

Sadly walkups were not great. I am thinking ~ 2.5m previews.  

 

Edit:

Friday presales end - 45855/418337 703365.33 2779 shows. 

 

Now I am seeing around 5.5/6m true friday for total of 8/8.5m including previews. Would that be sufficient for this to hit 20m OW?

Films that are walk-up light generally have lower IMs - Scream VI might be closest comp, which would mean high teens rather than $20+ off $2.5M Thursday (if it even gets that high, as may also MTC overindex as well) 

 

Put me down for the under on $2.5M and like $18-$19M weekend 

[Porthos]

On 4/20/2023 at 2:34 AM, Porthos said:

 

Fast X Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-29 days and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	182	27030	27738	708	2.55%

 

Total Seats Sold Today

30

 

T-29 Comp:

%

Sold T-29

Total Sold

Sellouts Shows

Seats Left Total Seats

Perct Sold

Final Sold

% of Final

Comp

JWD

46.55

47

1521

0/171

22263/23784

6.40%

33839

2.09%

8.38m

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of Fast X's current tickets sold versus that final number.

 

Regal:     103/10143  [1.02% sold]
Matinee:    14/3532  [0.40% | 1.98% of all tickets sold]

 

===

 

Not a misprint/tabulation error, as there were a couple of group sales/spikes at two different theaters tonight, which boosted the overall  total sold a great deal.

 

Fast X Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-28 days and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	182	27027	27738	711	2.56%

 

Total Seats Sold Today

3

 

T-28 Comp:

%

Sold T-29

Total Sold

Sellouts Shows

Seats Left Total Seats

Perct Sold

Final Sold

% of Final

Comp

JWD

46.75

47

1521

0/171

22263/23784

6.40%

33839

2.10%

8.41m

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of Fast X's current tickets sold versus that final number.

 

Regal:     103/10143  [1.02% sold]
Matinee:    14/3532  [0.40% | 1.97% of all tickets sold]

[Porthos]

On 4/20/2023 at 2:35 AM, Porthos said:

 

Guardians of the Galaxy: Volume 3 Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report:

T-15 days and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	203	25548	29095	3547	12.19%

 

Total Seats Sold Today

69

 

T-15 Comps:

	%		Sold T-15	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
MoM	34.74		182	10209		0/351	32227/42436	24.06%		21117	16.80%		12.51m
L&T	55.82		150	6354		0/228	25246/31600	20.11%		16962	20.91%		16.19m
Bats	90.42		111	3923		0/280	30855/34778	11.28%		11757	30.17%		19.53m
BP2	51.93		126	6830		2/294	30194/37024	18.45%		16800	21.11%		14.54m
AM3	76.82		153	4617		0/238	28177/32794	14.08%		10475	33.86%		13.44m

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of GOTG3's current tickets sold versus that final number.

 

Regal:      676/11051  [6.12% sold]
Matinee:     111/3372  [3.29% | 3.13% of all tickets sold]
3D:           395/5498  [7.18% | 11.14% of all tickets sold]

 

Guardians of the Galaxy: Volume 3 Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report:

T-14 days and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	203	25501	29095	3594	12.35%

 

Total Seats Sold Today

47

 

T-14 Comps:

	%		Sold T-14	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
MoM	34.56		190	10399		0/351	32037/42436	24.51%		21117	17.02%		12.44m
L&T	54.88		195	6549		0/228	25051/31600	20.72%		16962	21.19%		15.91m
Bats	87.94		164	4087		0/285	31380/35467	11.52%		11757	30.57%		18.99m
BP2	50.91		230	7060		2/294	29934/37024	19.07%		16800	21.39%		14.25m
AM3	75.39		150	4767		0/238	28027/32794	14.54%		10475	34.31%		13.19m

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of GOTG3's current tickets sold versus that final number.

 

Regal:     694/11051  [6.28% sold]
Matinee:    111/3372  [3.29% | 3.09% of all tickets sold]
3D:            407/5498  [7.40% | 11.32% of all tickets sold]

[Eric Prime]

On 4/20/2023 at 4:31 AM, Eric Williams said:

Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3 Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-15 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	221	3165	39919	7.93%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 33

 

Comp - T-16

1.791x of Black Widow (23.64M)

3.818x of Shang-Chi (33.6M)

2.193x of Eternals (20.84M)

0.333x of Doctor Strange 2 (12M)

0.610x of Thor 4 (17.7M)

0.475x of Black Panther 2 (13.32M)

0.773x of Ant-Man 3 (13.52M)

Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3 Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-14 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	221	3206	39919	8.03%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 41

 

Comp - T-15

1.733x of Black Widow (22.87M)

3.614x of Shang-Chi (31.81M)

2.153x of Eternals (20.45M)

0.334x of Doctor Strange 2 (12.01M)

0.598x of Thor 4 (17.35M)

0.460x of Black Panther 2 (12.89M)

0.783x of Ant-Man 3 (13.7M)

[JustLurking]

at this point even if it finishes well and reviews help it out I'm struggling to see it finish past 15-16 range previews..

[Krissykins]

So $2-2.5m previews and $17-20m opening. 
 

Budget: $15m

[vafrow]

36 minutes ago, JustLurking said:

at this point even if it finishes well and reviews help it out I'm struggling to see it finish past 15-16 range previews..

I posted some analysis in the GOTG3 thread yesterday, and arrive to the same conclusion.

 

It's remarkable how there's been hardly any good days for tracking on this. It started weak, and has stayed steady or declined against its comps consistently. 

 

 

[ThatWaluigiDude]

What about Fast X, any sort of boost after the new trailer?

[vafrow]

14 minutes ago, ThatWaluigiDude said:

What about Fast X, any sort of boost after the new trailer?

 

Based on the tracking data listed, it doesn't appear to have had much impact.

 

I'm hoping the lesson learned from Universal on this is to not open ticket sales up so early. I don't think they're farther ahead than if they just opened at the 30 day window like other blockbusters.

[vafrow]

Long term forecast from Box Office Pro

 

https://www.boxofficepro.com/long-range-box-office-forecast-fast-x-trending-toward-65-70m-domestic-start-in-early-outlook/

 

Fast X opening to $65-75

 

GOTG3 forecast drops down to $110-135M opening 

 

Are You There God and Big George both dropping in their estimates.

[TwoMisfits]

20 minutes ago, vafrow said:

Long term forecast from Box Office Pro

 

https://www.boxofficepro.com/long-range-box-office-forecast-fast-x-trending-toward-65-70m-domestic-start-in-early-outlook/

 

Fast X opening to $65-75

 

GOTG3 forecast drops down to $110-135M opening 

 

Are You There God and Big George both dropping in their estimates.

 

Almost there on GOTG 3 Shawn...just a little more ways to go to the downside...

[froztking]

gog vol 3 looks like a justice league for marvel ! if the movie get even average reviews they r f$cked !! this is the issue with these interconnected shared universe when ppl looses interest with them even the good movies will go down nd they dropped back 2 back average nd bad stuff + there was too much to follow for a normal audience in last 2 yrs nd most of them would have loosen interest specially with this continuous social media bashing on marvel since thor 4 !

[Ohana]

24 minutes ago, vafrow said:

Long term forecast from Box Office Pro

 

https://www.boxofficepro.com/long-range-box-office-forecast-fast-x-trending-toward-65-70m-domestic-start-in-early-outlook/

 

Fast X opening to $65-75

 

GOTG3 forecast drops down to $110-135M opening 

 

Are You There God and Big George both dropping in their estimates.

tbh Box Office Theory's projections are so accurate I stopped following any other forecasts out there 😝
The job the guyz are doing here is amazing.

[Brainbug]

Diminished returns have set in for the long-running brand in the eight years since Furious 7 saw the franchise peak with a $147.2 million domestic opening and $353 million total (part of $1.5 million globally).

 

@Shawn

 

 

 

 

[Shawn Robbins]

24 minutes ago, Brainbug said:

Diminished returns have set in for the long-running brand in the eight years since Furious 7 saw the franchise peak with a $147.2 million domestic opening and $353 million total (part of $1.5 million globally).

 

@Shawn

 

 

 

 

 

[Shawn Robbins]

38 minutes ago, Ohana said:

tbh Box Office Theory's projections are so accurate I stopped following any other forecasts out there 😝
The job the guyz are doing here is amazing.

Upon inspection, you may find there is... a connection... between these two specifically.

 

👀 👀 👀

 

😉

[WrathOfHan]

Evil Dead sales seem very PLF heavy around the city tonight. Late sales are surprisingly weak right now.

[vafrow]

32 minutes ago, Ohana said:

tbh Box Office Theory's projections are so accurate I stopped following any other forecasts out there 😝
The job the guyz are doing here is amazing.

The work here is tremendous, but more data is always better.

 

Even if it's to validate what's being seen here, or understanding the timing gaps from different sources.

 

The other forecasts also may be tracking data outside of ticket sales, so it's never bad to have a different source.

 

But in the event of discrepancy, I trust what I see here over other sources. Especially since often industry publications have motivations to help their industry contacts by presenting certain forecasts to help hype films, or to protect them from elevated expectations.

[DisposedData]

43 minutes ago, WrathOfHan said:

Evil Dead sales seem very PLF heavy around the city tonight. Late sales are surprisingly weak right now.

Not remotely surprising. It relies solely on its fanbase Everyone else is going to stay clear thanks to it being a bit too much.