The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread (December 2021 - July 2023)

[Porthos]

The Flash Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-23 days and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	158	21727	22367	640	2.86%

 

Total Seats Sold Today

640

 

Day 1 Comps:

	%		Sold Day 1	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
BA	150.23		426	426		0/142	21387/21813	1.95%		4494	14.24%		11.42m
Wick 4	133.06		481	481		0/82	11915/12396	3.88%		5448	11.75%		11.84m
AtSV	62.81		1019	1019		0/124	17505/18524	1.08%		????	????		????

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of The Flash's current tickets sold versus that final number.

 

Regal:     113/5193  [2.18% sold]

Matinee:    8/1900  [0.42% | 1.25% of all tickets sold]

 

===

 

Maaaan, if you think I have the energy to say anything after all of THAT.....

 

...

 

Well, will note that I decided not to include The Batman comp as even if I strip out the seats sold on the first two days of EA-only sales and only look at sales sold on the first full day of sales (2406 tickets sold), it comes in at 5.75m, which doesn't say much.  So while I could include it, I think it actively detracts and provides negative information.

 

Spoiler

If people really want the comp bloc:

 

%

Sold Day 1

Total Sold

Sellouts Shows

Seats Left Total Seats

Perct Sold

Final Sold

% of Final

Comp

Bats

22.21

2406

2881

0/248

29316/32197

8.95%

11757

5.44%

4.80m

PRE-SALE NOTE:  The Batman had two days of exclusive pre-sales for Early Access shows which resulted in 475 seats sold before regular showtimes went on sale.

 

 

Not that the AtSV comp provides much more, but it might be right in the area of being a tiny bit useful.  If folks want other comps, lemme know, but they probably won't be added 'till I shift to T-x.

 

NB:  Also refrained from using JWD Day 1 as a comp (mostly for disparate pre-sale window lengths). ❤️

Edited May 24, 2023 by Porthos

[Porthos]

 

Edited May 24, 2023 by Porthos

[Cooper Legion]

Only 2 more days of maximum madness comrade

 

Spoiler

Imagine how funny it would be if mission impossible surprise dropped this morning though  

 

[Liiviig 1998]

Flash presales are ok I guess🥱. Besides ATSV June releases presales have been just fine , hope the following weeks are better or walk-ups are strong.

 

Transformers 40m?

ATSV.  100-130m?

 

 

 

 

[Porthos]

19 minutes ago, Legions of the Galaxy said:

Imagine how funny it would be if mission impossible surprise dropped this morning though  

 

[charlie Jatinder]

The Flash MiniTC2 T-23

Previews - 1207/51965 (190 showings) $18,883

Weirdly LOL Comps
0.31x The Batman first day - $6.7M
3.02x Black Adam first day - $23M
9.22x Shazam!! first day - $31M

Useful Comps
0.76x Spider-Verse 2 first day - $12-14M
1.18x Eternals first day - $12.5M (inflation-adjusted)

Though Eternals' start was bigger than what it ended with, I expect this to cancel out.

FRI sales are horrible.

[Cooper Legion]

15 minutes ago, charlie Jatinder said:

Weirdly LOL Comps
0.31x The Batman first day - $6.7M
3.02x Black Adam first day - $23M

Ironically if these were only two data points, taken together they point to essentially 12.5M

[charlie Jatinder]

On 5/10/2023 at 10:18 PM, charlie Jatinder said:

The Little Mermaid MiniTC2 T-16

 

EA - 728/2913 (10 showings) $12,213
Previews - 1460/63264 (242 showings) $19,854

 

Comps (Choose your own adventure)

0.64x Super Mario Bros - $20.2M (adjust for full-day release, make it around $15M+)

1.82x John Wick 4 - $16.2M

2.32x Scream 6 - $13.2M

2.04x Fast X - ??? (likely $15M)

~0.77x Jurassic World 3 - $13.9M

& just for the sake of it

0.57x Avatar 2 - $9.7M

0.47x Top Gun: Maverick - $9.3M

 

The Little Mermaid MiniTC2 T-2

 

EA - 1196/2912 (10 showings) $19,980
Previews - 5169/69180 (266 showings) $69,454

Comps

0.43x Super Mario Bros - $14.5M (adjust for full-day release, make it around $12M)

1.19x John Wick 4 - $10.6M

1.95x Scream 6 - $10.9M

1.87x Fast X - $14M

~0.6x Jurassic World 3 - $10.8M

[YSLDC]

33 minutes ago, charlie Jatinder said:

The Flash MiniTC2 T-23

Previews - 1207/51965 (190 showings) $18,883

Weirdly LOL Comps
0.31x The Batman first day - $6.7M
3.02x Black Adam first day - $23M
9.22x Shazam!! first day - $31M

Useful Comps
0.76x Spider-Verse 2 first day - $12-14M
1.18x Eternals first day - $12.5M (inflation-adjusted)

Though Eternals' start was bigger than what it ended with, I expect this to cancel out.

FRI sales are horrible.

 

Who even buys tickets for Friday a month out?! 😁

[THUNDER BIRD]

33 minutes ago, charlie Jatinder said:

FRI sales are horrible.

The notion that this obviously Fan Driven Movie will somehow behave like more general audience franchises and will be less frontloaded will be broken soon.

 

 

[stripe]

So TLM aiming for 40-45M Friday+previews. This is huge.

Other recent MD tentpoles: TGM (52M OD), Aladdin (31.3M), Solo (35.3M), Pirates5 (23.5M)

 

 

[Maggie]

27 minutes ago, Legions of the Galaxy said:

Ironically if these were only two data points, taken together they point to essentially 12.5M

Would that be enough for 100M OW?

[romeross]

"Kandahar" and ABOUT MY FATHER looking good or bad?

[Cooper Legion]

8 minutes ago, Maggie said:

Would that be enough for 100M OW?

Probably not enough for 75 

[Maggie]

There's just too much competition for tickets with so many movies on sale at the same time. But The Flash is definitely a fan driven movie, so sales should be better

[YSLDC]

7 minutes ago, Legions of the Galaxy said:

Probably not enough for 75 

 

So this guy was right?

 

 

 

 

Edited May 24, 2023 by YSLDC

[Maggie]

1 minute ago, YSLDC said:

 

So this guy was right?

 

 

https://twitter.com/snyder_all/status/1652976057031569408?s=20

 

username checks out lol.  We have no data for industry tracking yet. Tomorrow it arrives on tracking

[Super]

6 hours ago, THUNDER BIRD said:

Years of experience of watching DC movies having Social Media Hype and then crashing and burning when they finally release.

 

Almost as if it has become a pattern now.

But didn’t the DC movies with social media hype have good presales? Like The Batman and Joker being the most recent ones? And those didn’t crash and burn when released either. So I might be missing the pattern unless we’re claiming every DC movie as having social media hype. 

[JustLurking]

10 minutes ago, Legions of the Galaxy said:

Probably not enough for 75 

That seems way excessive, you really think IM would end up lower than 6x? Provided it does hit 12.5M previews of course.

[cooldude97]

any noticeable bump in pre-sales after the final trailer was posted?