The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread (December 2021 - July 2023)

[Inceptionzq]

16 hours ago, Inceptionzq said:

The Flash Alamo Drafthouse

T-23 Thursday

117 Showings

1017

+1017

19017

ATP:

15.93

0.204	Guardians first 11 hours	3.57M
0.282	Ant-Man 3 first 14 hours	4.94M
1.614	Black Adam first 23 hours	12.27M
0.141	Thor L&T first 8.5 hours	4.10M
0.205	The Batman first 6.5 hours	3.60M

 

T-24 Friday

155 Showings

520

+520

25768

ATP:

16.62

0.177	Guardians first 11 hours	5.42M
0.284	Ant-Man 3 first 14 hours	8.21M
1.140	Black Adam first 23 hours	21.77M
0.113	Thor L&T first 8.5 hours	4.58M
0.126	The Batman first 6.5 hours	4.41M

 

T-25 Saturday

149 Showings

418

+418

24311

ATP:

15.33

0.128	Guardians first 11 hours	4.96M
0.272	Ant-Man 3 first 14 hours	9.22M
0.903	Black Adam first 23 hours	21.41M
0.108	Thor L&T first 8.5 hours	4.56M
0.136	The Batman first 6.5 hours	5.87M

 

T-26 Sunday

134 Showings

169

+169

22351

ATP:

14.83

0.132	Guardians first 11 hours	4.13M
0.389	Ant-Man 3 first 14 hours	10.01M
1.271	Black Adam first 23 hours	21.10M
0.097	Thor L&T first 8.5 hours	3.14M
0.150	The Batman first 6.5 hours	5.11M

The Flash Alamo Drafthouse

T-22 Thursday

117 Showings

1391

+374

19281

ATP:

15.94

0.249	Guardians Day 2	4.36M
0.238	Ant-Man 3 24 hours	4.17M
2.208	Black Adam first 23 hours	16.78M
0.168	Thor L&T first 24 hours	4.88M
0.238	The Batman first 24 hours	4.19M

 

T-23 Friday

155 Showings

789

+269

26123

ATP:

16.30

0.221	Guardians Day 2	6.75M
0.215	Ant-Man 3 24 hours	6.22M
1.730	Black Adam first 23 hours	33.03M
0.141	Thor L&T first 24 hours	5.70M
0.152	The Batman first 24 hours	5.33M

 

T-24 Saturday

149 Showings

682

+264

24666

ATP:

15.16

0.174	Guardians Day 2	6.77M
0.204	Ant-Man 3 24 hours	6.91M
1.473	Black Adam first 23 hours	34.92M
0.142	Thor L&T first 24 hours	5.99M
0.168	The Batman first 24 hours	7.27M

 

T-25 Sunday

134 Showings

269

+100

22715

ATP:

14.69

0.159	Guardians Day 2	4.99M
0.247	Ant-Man 3 24 hours	6.37M
2.023	Black Adam first 23 hours	33.58M
0.114	Thor L&T first 24 hours	3.72M
0.182	The Batman first 24 hours	6.22M

[Borobudur]

Can I check if SV2 is safe for 100m OW?

[M37]

50 minutes ago, stripe said:

 

Could we have an scenario similar to The Batman/Guardians3? A scenario where an important part of the audience is reluctant to buy tickets until quality confirmed. If it happens, could we talk about a change of pattern regarding the way audience receives a new CBM entry?

Absolutely! In fact, given the way WB is behaving - all these screenings suggesting they believe they have a winner of a film on their hands - I'm inclined to expect that kind of post-review/WOM bigger finishing kick. But the inescapable fact is that the early sales, the denominator, is just very low

 

The optimal outcome from this starting value is probably something like a default Black Adam/JW4 sales trajectory, with a GOTG3/Batman style off-the-fence-pushing review bump and summer walk-up friendly boost on top of it ... and all of that might be barely enough for a $100M OW

 

We'll see how things go over the next week, but 5-6x wherever ticket numbers stand by T-14 is about the highest I can reasonably [as in all things break right] project (though "unreasonable" things do happen from time to time)

Edited May 24, 2023 by M37

[Spidey Freak]

26 minutes ago, cooldude97 said:

That would be awful considering how big seems it's going to be domestic 

 

Eh, it's The Little Mermaid, not The Lion King. That WW OW is fine.

 

DOM might be even bigger.

[screambaby]

Really surprised that TLM is that mediicre nternstionally.

Edited May 24, 2023 by screambaby

[keysersoze123]

I think Keaton's presence will make it play older. They wont book tickets that early. We have to wait until final week to judge Flash/Indy. That said huge breakout looks unlikely for both of them. 

 

Most of the folks here were not even born when Keaton bats movies were opened. It was absolute insanity back then and both the movies broke OW records back then. So there will be nostalgia in play and its opening during Father's day weekend as well. It will be the movie to go that weekend. 

[Cooper Legion]

Breaking records in 80s not always worth that much in 20s — especially when you’re a supporting character in a B lister’s movie. This was always a bit of a weird bank shot  to try to sell “The Flash” as a backdoor Batman thing. If you really want people running out for old Batman, probably needed a Batman movie. 

[keysersoze123]

16 minutes ago, Legions of the Galaxy said:

Breaking records in 80s not always worth that much in 20s — especially when you’re a supporting character in a B lister’s movie. This was always a bit of a weird bank shot  to try to sell “The Flash” as a backdoor Batman thing. If you really want people running out for old Batman, probably needed a Batman movie. 

I disagree. We will see for sure. You have no clue unless you were there at that time. 

[Tinalera]

I could have waited till T-20 for the comps, but thought Id give a snapshot of where Flash is right now in Toronto and Montreal. Ill pick up fresh (hopefully) in a couple of days.

 

The Flash

Thurs June 1 Fri June 2 (T-23)

Toronto and Montreal Canada

 

T-23			# theatre	#show	Seats Sold	Seats Rem	Ttl seat	Percent
	Tor	Thurs	4	23	226	5224	5450	0.0414
		Fri	4	32	87	7235	7322	0.0118
	Montr	Thurs	3	12	175	3405	3580	0.0488
		fri	3	15	41	4632	4673	0.0087

 

 

GOTG 3 (T-20) 

 

		# theatre	#show	Seats Sold	Seats Rem	Ttl seat	Percent
Tor	Thurs	4	23	226	5224	5450	0.0414
	Fri	4	32	87	7235	7322	0.0118
Montr	Thurs	3	12	175	3405	3580	0.0488
		3	15	41	4632	4673	0.0087

 

 

	T T	T F	M T	M F
Flash	5450	7322	3580	4673
GOTG 3	7197	10388	5601	7237
diff	-1747	-3066	-2021	-2564

 

 

Shazam 2 (T-20)

 

	T-20	# theatre	#show	Seats Sold	Seats Rem	Ttl seat	Percent
Toronto	Thurs	3	12	41	3339	3380	0.0121
	Fri	3	17	160	5092	5252	0.0304
		# theatre	#show	Seats Sold	Seats Rem	Ttl seat	Percent
Montrea	Thurs	3	15	32	3754	3786	0.0084
	Fri	3	18	20	4862	4882	0.0040

 

Flash	5450	7322	3580	4673
Shaz 2	3380	5252	3786	4882
diff	2070	2070	-206	-209

[Tinalera]

30 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

I think Keaton's presence will make it play older. They wont book tickets that early. We have to wait until final week to judge Flash/Indy. That said huge breakout looks unlikely for both of them. 

 

Most of the folks here were not even born when Keaton bats movies were opened. It was absolute insanity back then and both the movies broke OW records back then. So there will be nostalgia in play and its opening during Father's day weekend as well. It will be the movie to go that weekend. 

 

 

 

Speaking as someone who watched 89 Batman 5 times and stood in those lineups......... (though to be fair you did say most.....and I just aged myself ) And I can absolutely concur it was Bat-mania and insanity back then. Everyone's previous Batman experience  was TV 66 Batman, and a Dark, Gothic Batman with Jack as Joker just drove the hype. It was insane. 

 

Edited May 24, 2023 by Tinalera

[kayumanggi]

 

[GOGODanca]

Quote

“The Little Mermaid” had a budget close to $250 million, which grew because of unexpected COVID-related production delays and health and safety costs, so it will need to resonate across the globe to turn a profit.

 

[John Marston]

 

 

Keaton only has a supporting role (confirmed by early screenings). Also there have been other Batman movies after that have overshadowed the Keaton ones in recognition and praise. I always thought the Keaton factor was way overestimated 

 

[PrinceRico]

TLM is probably winning this he summer if Box-office Pro numbers hold. Huge win.

[KP1025]

34 minutes ago, screambaby said:

Really surprised thst TLM is that meduocre internstionally.

 

At least in Asia, there's an unfortunate agenda against it that has nothing to do with the movie itself.

Edited May 24, 2023 by KP1025

[Porthos]

1 hour ago, keysersoze123 said:

Indy Day 2 is meh. So not going to do much until final week. 

 

I think it got a little lost with all of the The Flash hysteria, but I personally wasn't that impressed with TLM's Tue locally.

 

But.

 

***BUT!!!!!***

 

But I also personally think that Indy 5 (more a hangover from the previous day), TLM, AtSV, and Flash all just slaughtered each other locally.   Damn near 1000 tickets between the four big non-TLM films in pre-sales were sold locally (915 ftr) and that had to take a bite out of a normal/expected Tue-before-launch tally.

 

Only film I really was impressed with yesterday was AtSV which I felt had a really nice bounce. No idea if there was an in-built marketing reason or if it was a more synergistic target for people who were also buying Flash tickets (the general CBM crowd).

 

Now I've long been on the train that June 2023 was gonna be something like what happened in May 2019 when a bunch of films slaughtered each other so I'm a little biased/primed for such a conclusion.  

 

That being said, I also expect TLM to rebound nicely today and not just because of EA sales.  Just wanted to note that there could be an extenuating circumstance at play here.

 

(doesn't mean Indy 5 will ever catch up, mind)

Edited May 24, 2023 by Porthos

[raegr]

8 hours ago, charlie Jatinder said:

The Flash MiniTC2 T-23

Previews - 1207/51965 (190 showings) $18,883

Weirdly LOL Comps
0.31x The Batman first day - $6.7M
3.02x Black Adam first day - $23M
9.22x Shazam!! first day - $31M

Useful Comps
0.76x Spider-Verse 2 first day - $12-14M
1.18x Eternals first day - $12.5M (inflation-adjusted)

Though Eternals' start was bigger than what it ended with, I expect this to cancel out.

FRI sales are horrible.

are these previews or pure friday numbers??

[Maggie]

It's a bloodbath at the BO. How are people supposed to chose with so many options? I feel we'll get a better understanding on how a movie will do on its opening week.

Edited May 24, 2023 by Maggie

[screambaby]

Thing about batman 89 isi it was Nicholson over the top performance as the joker that drove the movie and the box office. And yes I was old enough to see it in theatres.

 

That being said micheal Keaton batman>Ben Affleck batman

[jedijake]

16 minutes ago, KP1025 said:

 

At least in Asia, there's an unfortunate agenda against it that has nothing to do with the movie itself.

In ALL Asian nations? I've given up on trying to figure out China, but what agenda would Japan and South Korea have against it?