The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread (December 2021 - July 2023)

[JWR]

26 minutes ago, Goldenhour36 said:

 

Rally Road Racers already broken it

 

Rally what?

[TheFlatLannister]

1 hour ago, Menor Reborn said:

I forget, do you have John Wick?

Started tracking that from T-8 and on

[TwoMisfits]

7 minutes ago, JWR said:

 

Rally what?

 

It was a small release that Cinemark supported...

[AMC Theaters Enjoyer]

Holy crap those Spider-Verse numbers are incredible!

[John Marston]

52 minutes ago, charlie Jatinder said:

MI7 isn’t animated 

 

 

I mean I would love if MI7 can have an opening weekend in that range but I can't see how that is likely

[cooldude97]

if it really opens to a $135M+ weekend I don't want anyone ever to tell me Batman is the most popular superhero again 

[JWR]

Across the Spider-Verse might end up opening bigger than The Flash. Crazy to think about.

[John Marston]

2 hours ago, TheFlatLannister said:

GREATER ORLANDO REGION

The Flash

 

THURSDAY includes fan screening

 

T-20

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
120	1749	25233	6.9%

^{*Numbers taken as of 6:00pm EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

18

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

SELLOUTS

0

 

 

COMPS

T-20

 

(0.367x) of GUARDIANS OF THE GALAXY VOL 3 

~$6.4M THUR Previews

 

 

Isn't this extremely horrendous? A movie like The Flash should be doing huge upfront business

[keysersoze123]

2 minutes ago, cooldude97 said:

if it really opens to a $135M+ weekend I don't want anyone ever to tell me Batman is the most popular superhero again 

Spider-man is always among the most popular heroes. Plus DC is tarnished at this point. That said I would be surprised if Battinson sequel does not increase from the 1st movie last year. Its still early days to figure out where it will end up. 

[excel1]

Batman vs. Joker is different than solo-Batman. Solo-Batman is huge too but add in Joker and its different level stuff. 

[charlie Jatinder]

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Edited May 27, 2023 by charlie Jatinder

[excel1]

6 minutes ago, JWR said:

Across the Spider-Verse might end up opening bigger than The Flash. Crazy to think about.

 

huh

[THUNDER BIRD]

13 minutes ago, cooldude97 said:

if it really opens to a $135M+ weekend I don't want anyone ever to tell me Batman is the most popular superhero again 

People say that? 

[M37]

On 5/25/2023 at 5:24 AM, M37 said:

I’ll do a full update after the T-7 numbers are in, but just want to note that Spider-Verse is still blazing along the JWD/BA track, which puts the expected preview in the $16-$20M range. And generally (but it’s not quite that simple), the better the growth rate, the higher the IM 

 

If anything has a chance to top GOTG3 as the best non-Mario opening of the year, it’s not Flash or even Indy, but SV

Spider-Verse T-7 Meta-Analysis

I'm going to preface this by saying I've had high expectations on this film for a while, so I'm going to try to be cautious not in over-interpreting the data in a favorable manner, but ... trends are very encouraging. The good news is that @keysersoze123beat me to the punch today and already got picked up by our Reddit friends (twice actually lol)

 

Delving into the data, Spider-Verse continues to pace very closely to JWD across most markets (if any tracker is not including that comp, would highly recommend using it, as well as Black Adam). At present, SV has the highest pace level of any major ($10M+ preview) release tracked in Alpha, besides Little Mermaid. That pace alone would project to around at ~310K finish in sales, slightly ahead of GOTG3, or around the same $17.5M preview (because no EA shows)

 

However, one issue with the the JWD comp is that reviews were really bad, so pace actually trailed off a bit at the end.  All indications are that SV will nab at least good, if not very good to great reviews, and may have the opposite effect in pushing people off the fence; a reasonable optimistic projection would be 330-340K final sales (360K might be a bit of a stretch @Menor Reborn), or ~$19M in previews. That $17-$19M range is mostly where my head is at. But ...

Spoiler

Want to make clear this is NOT a forecast of what WILL happen or even what we should expect to happen, but at least want to put it out into the ether.

 

The other issue is that JWD is really an outlier in terms of market/demographic performance among tentpoles. Typically, for every ticket sold at Alpha, we get  roughly $57 PSM, with some variation. But for JWD, that value (PSM) was nearly $71. In other words, an unajusted Alpha comp for SV vs JWD would project to $22M for Thursday, before including any review impact that could push it even higher ... so if we do see anything close to a similar market skew for SV, the ceiling is pretty darn high

 

Again, not what I'm expecting to happen, but also cannot rule it out. The lower comp values in Sacto & Denver vs JWD (around $14.5M) make me think its less likely to happen

 

As far the IM, not a lot of clarity here. Its selling mostly like a CBM, so something at or only a little bit above 6x is absolutely possible, especially as we move into June. Conversely, since SV is tracking very much like JWD, seems only appropriate to mention that film had an 8x+ just last year ... also in June. Somewhere in that range is likely the answer, but whether that leans toward the higher or lower end of that range is to me unclear

 

Rolling it all up together, this seems about right

Spide-Verse OW Forecast Matrix		Thursday Preview Gross Range
		$16.0	$16.6	$17.1	$17.7	$18.3	$18.8	$19.4	$19.9	$20.5
Thur / Wknd Ratio (IM)	6.00	$96.0	$99.4	$102.8	$106.1	$109.5	$112.9	$116.3	$119.6	$123.0
	6.25	$100.0	$103.5	$107.0	$110.5	$114.1	$117.6	$121.1	$124.6	$128.1
	6.50	$104.0	$107.7	$111.3	$115.0	$118.6	$122.3	$125.9	$129.6	$133.3
	6.75	$108.0	$111.8	$115.6	$119.4	$123.2	$127.0	$130.8	$134.6	$138.4
	7.00	$112.0	$115.9	$119.9	$123.8	$127.8	$131.7	$135.6	$139.6	$143.5
	7.25	$116.0	$120.1	$124.2	$128.2	$132.3	$136.4	$140.5	$144.5	$148.6
	7.50	$120.0	$124.2	$128.4	$132.7	$136.9	$141.1	$145.3	$149.5	$153.8
	7.75	$124.0	$128.4	$132.7	$137.1	$141.4	$145.8	$150.2	$154.5	$158.9
	8.00	$128.0	$132.5	$137.0	$141.5	$146.0	$150.5	$155.0	$159.5	$164.0

 

For the record, here would be the benchmarks for SV to keep on the JWD pace for this week

• T-4 = 125-130K (holiday may hold this number lower
• T-2 = 160-165K
• T-F = 310-315K

[TheFlatLannister]

26 minutes ago, John Marston said:

 

 

Isn't this extremely horrendous? A movie like The Flash should be doing huge upfront business

its selling like transformers idk why. The fan event is nearly sold out so i guess that put a massive dent in the day-to-day pace

[Flamengo81]

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Edited May 27, 2023 by Flamengo81
nvmd

[Flamengo81]

35 minutes ago, cooldude97 said:

if it really opens to a $135M+ weekend I don't want anyone ever to tell me Batman is the most popular superhero again 

I think this is cyclical and depends on where are you from. Right now there is no doubt Spider-Man is the most popular superhero, but just 10 years ago it was not the case in many places. I can tell for Brazil that Spider-Man is the most popular one since his introduction in the MCU and BvS being a joke, but before that it was Batman and even today he still miles ahead of the others. In 10 years it might remain the same or things might change, we never know.

[YM!]

35 minutes ago, excel1 said:

 

huh

Presales are indicating 17m+ previews with a solid chance at 130m OW.

[cooldude97]

based on what info we got so far, what is transformers floor and ceiling for OW looking like currently ?

[Bob Train]

Mission Impossible will explode over the last one. MI has always been strong internationally and it will get a slight boost domestically due to Top Gun and Tom Cruise being in his peak, propelling it to a billion.