The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread (December 2021 - July 2023)

[Joyous Legion]

10 minutes ago, M37 said:

I suppose imitation is the sincerest form of flattery

Indeed it is

 

10 minutes ago, M37 said:

but at least use a different color scheme!

But the copy paste ease 😛   
 

Maybe I’ll play around with red and blue or something if you prefer but just wanted to get it out there for posterity today.

 

I have a hard time seeing a CBM match Transformers IM slightly deeper into summer and I think Transformers being EA heavier was weighing on the t-7 pre/fri ratio much more than final. MTC1 fri is not as bad as some regionals p/smaller chains though, it is true. Overall I would be mildly surprised to see fri crack 1.7x

Edited June 10, 2023 by Into the Legion-Verse

[excel1]

IF The Flash opens under Black Adam....WB need to make up with Dwayne Johnson ASAP

[Ohana]

15 minutes ago, excel1 said:

IF The Flash opens under Black Adam....WB need to make up with Dwayne Johnson ASAP

If The Flash opens under Black Adam I'll declare I know nothing about movies and retire from BOT til 
Madonna has a Billion dollar movie.

Edited June 10, 2023 by Ohana
spelling mistake

[John Marston]

don't think it will open under BA but 75-85m would be disappointing. WB absolutely wanted that 100m+ with the marketing blitz they have done

[M37]

8 minutes ago, Into the Legion-Verse said:

Indeed it is

 

18 minutes ago, M37 said:

but at least use a different color scheme!

But the copy paste ease 😛   
 

Maybe I’ll play around with red and blue or something if you prefer but just wanted to get it out there for posterity today.

Really don't care much, was something I whipped up on a whim that seems to be working well, so still in Ver 1.0 form. Mostly was just confused when I came back to the thread and saw 2 of them. Don't even know why I chose green, usually prefer blue

 

9 minutes ago, Into the Legion-Verse said:

I have a hard time seeing a CBM match Transformers IM slightly deeper into summer and I think Transformers being EA heavier was weighing on the t-7 pre/fri ratio much more than final.

Maybe this is over-compensation, but feeling like I got a bit duped by TF by bucketing the EA shows as a separate thing and missing the growth curve that was building. It was a very unusual dynamic, having EA shows with that many seats still available for a release of this size, and while I agree its not a 1:1 comp, not really sure how to adjust and apply going forward. Or maybe TF turns out to be a one-off that is best not used as a comp?

 

The Drafthouse Th/Fri ratio is also low (0.66), but also not that far off from BA at the same T-7 checkpoint (0.81), which doesn't scream to me a super low Th/Fr in June. Or maybe BA is the outlier among this group? Too many questions, leanings towards DC just being a different beast

[Krissykins]

14 minutes ago, John Marston said:

don't think it will open under BA but 75-85m would be disappointing. WB absolutely wanted that 100m+ with the marketing blitz they have done

What are they doing in your country? 
 

We’ve got some bus stop adverts and billboards, but no press tour. No daytime tv, late night, interviews, premiere, nothing. 

[reddevil19]

38 minutes ago, excel1 said:

IF The Flash opens under Black Adam....WB need to make up with Dwayne Johnson ASAP

Tbh, I had a bad feeling about it when I saw that the Black Adam billboard that had been at the entrance to Brent Cross, off the A406 (opposite Tesco) in London for 8 months got replaced by The Flash. 

[Menor the Destroyer]

19 minutes ago, M37 said:

Really don't care much, was something I whipped up on a whim that seems to be working well, so still in Ver 1.0 form. Mostly was just confused when I came back to the thread and saw 2 of them. Don't even know why I chose green, usually prefer blue

 

Maybe this is over-compensation, but feeling like I got a bit duped by TF by bucketing the EA shows as a separate thing and missing the growth curve that was building. It was a very unusual dynamic, having EA shows with that many seats still available for a release of this size, and while I agree its not a 1:1 comp, not really sure how to adjust and apply going forward. Or maybe TF turns out to be a one-off that is best not used as a comp?

 

The Drafthouse Th/Fri ratio is also low (0.66), but also not that far off from BA at the same T-7 checkpoint (0.81), which doesn't scream to me a super low Th/Fr in June. Or maybe BA is the outlier among this group? Too many questions, leanings towards DC just being a different beast

I have observed that Thu/Fri ratio can be artificially better for bigger films since they have presold more into the weekend anyway. Makes Flash a bit tough to comp since it's too big for the small stuff and too small for the big stuff. However MTC1, unlike other samples is fairly close to SV at the moment (75%ish), and is pretty significantly more Thu-heavy at 0.56 vs 0.66 (bucketing in the fan shows with Thu here). I tend to put more weight on that comp than Transformers which I feel like has a pretty different dynamic in terms of audience behavior and the EA makes Fri/Thu hard to comp. 

[JWR]

So, is it safe to say that $100M+ OW is 50/50 for The Flash?

[Dragoncaine]

13 minutes ago, JWR said:

So, is it safe to say that $100M+ OW is 50/50 for The Flash?

Much less so, in favor of sub-100m. 90m would be an excellent result at this rate

[DlAMONDZ]

I better not see any "no marketing" complaints like we usually do when a movie underperforms or flops. WB hasn't marketed a DC movie this hard since BvS and Suicide Squad

Edited June 10, 2023 by DlAMONDZ

[JWR]

8 minutes ago, DlAMONDZ said:

I better not see any "no marketing" complaints like we usually do when a movie underperforms or flops. WB hasn't marketed a DC movie this hard since BvS and Suicide Squad

 

Because they have a lot riding on it.

[Starphanluke]

Couple of hot (not really, more like mild) takes:

 

This feels like a pretty big win for Transformers domestically. Reversing a collapsing franchise box office run, especially in a time of relative upheaval in the box office space, is a hopeful sign. Does it mean the movie's magically going to turn a profit or something? Nah. They spent too much on it, and China isn't showing up in the same way it always does to pick up the slack. But I'm not convinced the franchise is buried. 

 

And more generally: I'm glad this shows the current marketplace *can* balance multiple movies performing healthy numbers at the same time. At least in the US.

 

Edit: this was supposed to be in the Weekend thread. Oops.

Edited June 10, 2023 by Starphanluke

[TheFlatLannister]

42 minutes ago, JWR said:

So, is it safe to say that $100M+ OW is 50/50 for The Flash?

more like 20/80

 

The 20% chance being something truly remarkable happens this coming week 

[JWR]

Is anyone tracking Joy Ride? 

[Starphanluke]

6 minutes ago, TheFlatLannister said:

more like 20/80

 

The 20% chance being something truly remarkable happens this coming week 

Yeah, it's hard to rule it out after what happened this week with Transformers. But Transformers was at least showing the growth signs by now.

[XXR & Friends]

52 minutes ago, JWR said:

So, is it safe to say that $100M+ OW is 50/50 for The Flash?

 

At this point I wouldn't give it even a 1% chance to open over $100M. Probably only a 10% chance @ $90M. There's just nothing in the numbers, even with a TF style finish, that supports it. 

[titanic2187]

37 minutes ago, Dragoncaine said:

Much less so, in favor of sub-100m. 90m would be an excellent result at this rate

I must say even 90m is shaky with this pace, which is a very disappointing result because we haven't had a live action featuring batman movie to open below 90m since Batman Begins. Even Joker featuring still kid-Batman got 96m OW.

[GOGODanca]

The Flash (D-5)

 

1638 tickets sold at 10 AMC's (+263 tickets in last 3 days)

 

1.64x Black Adam (D-5) = $12.46m

 

At (D-8) the comp pointed to $13.9m previews so its lost good chunk of ground in 3 days

[Dlund87]

2 hours ago, XXRptimus Primal said:

 

 

GRID OFF!! 

 

2 hours ago, M37 said:

I suppose imitation is the sincerest form of flattery ... but at least use a different color scheme!

 

Flash Friday sales are what they are, but I just have a difficult time seeing it have a lower IM that TF is about to have, without a big EA run and with an inflated Sunday. Like if you compare the ratio of MTC1 EA+Thu/Fri sales for TF at T-7, Flash is ahead, and even if the walk-up rate is lower, a similar Th/Fri (1.9x) ratio seems plausible. Would have to drop to like 1.7x or even 1.6x range to get to the bottom half of your IM scale

 

 

I know its a CBM in summer, but I'm just starting to believe the more CBM-y audience had kinda checked out on DC generally, and this will play more GA, similar to Black Adam

Very possible but I also think we're seeing a shift in trends when it comes to CBM. Audiences are wanting to wait to see initial audience response like what we saw with GOTG 3. Trends are pretty similar. If WOM is strong and Cinemascore high I expect the Flash to have good legs