The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread (December 2021 - July 2023)

[BestPicturePlutoNash]

3 minutes ago, katnisscinnaplex said:

Movie	Day	Area	TC	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Barbie	T-22	Jax	6	43	25	146	5,243	2.78%
		Phx	6	29	9	229	4,876	4.70%
		Ral	8	45	19	279	5,631	4.95%
	Total		20	117	53	654	15,750	4.15%
Barbie (EA)	T-21	Jax	2	3	3	109	319	34.17%
		Phx	1	1	2	143	208	68.75%
		Ral	2	2	0	125	190	65.79%
	Total		5	6	5	377	717	52.58%
Oppenheimer	T-22	Jax	6	24	-11	204	4,739	4.30%
		Phx	6	26	7	236	4,969	4.75%
		Ral	8	22	11	243	2,837	8.57%
	Total		20	72	7	683	12,545	5.44%

 

Oppenheimer T-22 comps

 - JWD (Total) - .336x (6.04m)

 - Top Gun 2 - .943x (13.87m)

 - Avatar 2 - .573x (9.74m)

 - Scream VI - 1.658x (9.45m)

 - Mission Impossible 7 (Total) - 1.44x

 - Barbie (Total) - .662x

 

Size adjusted comps - 10.3m

 

Barbie (Total) T-22 comps

 - Avatar 2 - .865x (14.7m)

 - Oppenheimer - 1.51x

 - JWD (Total) - .507x (9.12m)

 - Dragon Ball Z - 2.794x (12.02m)

 - Super Mario Bros (OD) - 1.104x (34.99m)

 - Minions 2 - 10.52x (113.09m)

 

 

I will not be held responsible for any unreasonable expectations.

so this is good?

[Tinalera]

Indy 5

Thurs June 29 Fri June 30 (T-2)

Toronto and Montreal Canada

 

Toronto	# theatre	#show	Seats Sold	Seats Rem	Ttl seat	Percent
Thurs	4	25	436	5234	5670	0.0768
Fri	4	56	496	11833	12329	0.0402
Montreal	# theatre	#show	Seats Sold	Seats Rem	Ttl seat	Percent
Thurs	4	22	281	6329	6610	0.0425
Fri	3	33	294	8572	8866	0.0331

 

 

Dungeons and Dragons T-2

 

		# theatre	#show	Seats Sold	Seats Rem	Ttl seat	Percent
Toronto	Thurs	4	15	239	3819	4058	0.0588
	Fri	3	32	319	5228	8647	0.0368
Montreal		# theatre	#show	Seats Sold	Seats Rem	Ttl seat	Percent
	Thurs	3	11	221	3151	3372	0.0655
	Fri	3	23	396	7005	7401	0.0535

 

 

Total Seat Availability 

 

	T T	T F	M T	M F
INDY5	5670	12329	6610	8866
DND	4058	8647	3372	7401
Diff	1612	3682	3238	1465

[Tinalera]

15 minutes ago, katnisscinnaplex said:

Movie	Day	Area	TC	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Barbie	T-22	Jax	6	43	25	146	5,243	2.78%
		Phx	6	29	9	229	4,876	4.70%
		Ral	8	45	19	279	5,631	4.95%
	Total		20	117	53	654	15,750	4.15%
Barbie (EA)	T-21	Jax	2	3	3	109	319	34.17%
		Phx	1	1	2	143	208	68.75%
		Ral	2	2	0	125	190	65.79%
	Total		5	6	5	377	717	52.58%
Oppenheimer	T-22	Jax	6	24	-11	204	4,739	4.30%
		Phx	6	26	7	236	4,969	4.75%
		Ral	8	22	11	243	2,837	8.57%
	Total		20	72	7	683	12,545	5.44%

 

Oppenheimer T-22 comps

 - JWD (Total) - .336x (6.04m)

 - Top Gun 2 - .943x (13.87m)

 - Avatar 2 - .573x (9.74m)

 - Scream VI - 1.658x (9.45m)

 - Mission Impossible 7 (Total) - 1.44x

 - Barbie (Total) - .662x

 

Size adjusted comps - 10.3m

 

Barbie (Total) T-22 comps

 - Avatar 2 - .865x (14.7m)

 - Oppenheimer - 1.51x

 - JWD (Total) - .507x (9.12m)

 - Dragon Ball Z - 2.794x (12.02m)

 - Super Mario Bros (OD) - 1.104x (34.99m)

 - Minions 2 - 10.52x (113.09m)

 

 

I will not be held responsible for any unreasonable expectations.

I mean I just.....and yes I did read the small print....but wow. 

Edited June 28, 2023 by Tinalera

[TwoMisfits]

18 minutes ago, M37 said:

Kinda bored with Indy (sub-$8M Thursday incoming ) and the other releases over next two weeks, so spent some time trying to math out an IM range for MI7 off its unusual Wed opening and triple-dip preview shows

 

First, looked at bigger releases that had an EA day of PLF shows, comparing total previews to True Opening Day:

• Batman = $21.6 / $56.6 = 1.62x
• TGM = $19.26 / $52.0 = 1.70x
• Trans-ROTB = $8.8 / $25.65 = 1.91x

Of those 3, Batman was March, TGM was a holiday weekend, and Transformers had a decent family draw that MI7 shouldn't replicate, but also mid-week (albeit summer) OD vs Fri, so something in the 1.6-1.7x or so range seems about right

 

Then looked at mid-week openings: Mario & Air, Thanksgiving week, and previous 4th of July mid-week releases like Terminator: Genesis and Far From Home. Won't list all the data, but generally these films made 4.5-5.5 times their True Wed total from Thursday through Sunday, with outliers explainable by circumstance like holidays or lack of previews, or 5.5-6.5x Wed for the 5 day (plus previews)

 

Putting it all together: [Previews x (1.6-1.7)] x (5.5-6/5) + 1 = roughly a 10-12x IM from preview to 5-day opening total. So the approximate ~$7M preview comp values** currently out there would lead to $70-$85M 5-day full opening, Something like $7/$11/$10/$14/$19/$14 = $77M ($47M OW)

 

**The one caveat is that previews will likely come in lower than comp values due to Discount Tuesday pricing, but that could serve to boost the IM off the $ value (so like 11-13x), not necessarily alter the pattern/ratio of admissions across the week

 

Caveat - none of those releases got a Tmobile deal, and no release this year has gotten the deal after 2 days of EA releases (with the Walmart Sunday release and the Monday release) - so, it's gonna be extra hard to track the movie, but what I'll say is the PLF will get full use from Tuesday onward at Atom theaters b/c I can't imagine 15-35 year old males (the prime demos that seem to use the $5 deals, if going by which movies benefitted the most this year) passing on MI 7 stunts for just $5...

 

So, I expect the IM to be bigger from the EAs to the 5 day...

[TigerPaw]

7 minutes ago, TwoMisfits said:

 

Caveat - none of those releases got a Tmobile deal, and no release this year has gotten the deal after 2 days of EA releases (with the Walmart Sunday release and the Monday release) - so, it's gonna be extra hard to track the movie, but what I'll say is the PLF will get full use from Tuesday onward at Atom theaters b/c I can't imagine 15-35 year old males (the prime demos that seem to use the $5 deals, if going by which movies benefitted the most this year) passing on MI 7 stunts for just $5...

 

So, I expect the IM to be bigger from the EAs to the 5 day...

Imagine MI's 5 day opening is barely above the R-rated John Wick 4's 3 day...

[M37]

5 minutes ago, TwoMisfits said:

 

Caveat - none of those releases got a Tmobile deal, and no release this year has gotten the deal after 2 days of EA releases (with the Walmart Sunday release and the Monday release) - so, it's gonna be extra hard to track the movie, but what I'll say is the PLF will get full use from Tuesday onward at Atom theaters b/c I can't imagine 15-35 year old males (the prime demos that seem to use the $5 deals, if going by which movies benefitted the most this year) passing on MI 7 stunts for just $5...

 

So, I expect the IM to be bigger from the EAs to the 5 day...

Fair point, though this exercise was less about being precise, and more just getting to a rough starting level (instead of just winging it) upon which one can draw their own conclusions and make adjustments

 

But if values come in at $6.5 preview / $47M OW / $77M total then I’m absolutely going to claim I had it all along!

[Tinalera]

3 hours ago, Eric Jones said:

 

First I have literally of this movie-I must be out of the loop here.

[vafrow]

12 minutes ago, Tinalera said:

First I have literally of this movie-I must be out of the loop here.

 

It was an August release that moved up to take the July slot when Marvels moved.

 

 

I've been to the theatre quite a bit this summer, and I don't think I've seen a poster or trailer for it anywhere. Only what I saw online when the date change was announced.

With Barbieheimer tracking like it is, I've been wondering if this would move to October. It feels foolish releasing a big film on that weekend right now.

 

Maybe it's getting less promotion in Canada, so, that's why neither of us have seen anything, but, it's in the running with Ruby Gillman for most forgotten about film this summer from what I am seeing.

 

[WrathOfHan]

Gonna get the old tracking hat out and see how it fits  I'm tracking AMC's four main NYC theaters; we'll see how much I track regularly, but for now....

 

Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny:

TOTAL SALES: 1,903/10,311 (18.45% tickets sold)

PLF SHARE: 83% (1,585)

IMAX TOTAL: 886

DOLBY TOTAL: 699

STANDARD TOTAL: 318

 

Theater Breakdown:

Spoiler

Lincoln Square:

3:00PM IMAX: 281/475

3:30PM Dolby: 105/297

4:30PM: 3/362

6:00PM: 34/342

7:00PM Dolby: 220/297

8:00PM: 35/362

9:30PM: 1/342

10:30PM Dolby: 37/297

11:00PM IMAX: 161/475

Total: 877/3,249

 

Empire:

3:00PM IMAX: 56/321

3:30PM: 11/355 (4 seats are currently unavailable/out of order)

4:00PM Dolby: 76/203

5:00PM Open Caption: 4/315 (6 seats are currently unavailable/out of order)

6:00PM: 0/309 (7 seats are currently unavailable/out of order)

6:30PM IMAX: 136/321

7:00PM: 15/355 (4 seats are currently unavailable/out of order)

7:30PM Dolby: 149/204

8:00PM: 1/77

8:30PM: 3/315 (6 seats are currently unavailable/out of order)

9:30PM: 0/309 (7 seats are currently unavailable/out of order)

10:00PM IMAX: 27/321

10:30PM: 1/355 (4 seats are currently unavailable/out of order)

11:00PM Dolby: 24/204

Total: 503/4,370

 

34th Street:

3:00PM Dolby: 34/131

3:30PM IMAX: 21/219

6:00PM: 2/115

6:30PM Dolby: 76/131

7:00PM IMAX: 122/219

8:00PM: 25/76

9:30PM: 6/115

10:00PM Dolby: 7/131

10:30PM IMAX: 22/219

Total: 315/1,356

 

Kips Bay:

3:00PM IMAX: 36/338

4:00PM Open Caption: 9/174

5:00PM: 21/156

7:30PM: 77/174

8:30PM: 41/156

10:30PM IMAX: 24/338

Total: 208/1,336

 

With no hard data, this looks to be performing on par with The Flash's opening night: PLF sales are strong but standard screens are dreadful aside from a couple shows.

 

Ruby Gillman, Teenage Kraken:

TOTAL SALES: 66/1,944 (3.4% of all tickets sold)

Theater Breakdown:

Spoiler

Lincoln Square:

2:00PM: 7/176

4:15PM: 2/176

6:45PM: 1/176

9:15PM: 0/176

Total: 10/704

 

Empire:

2:00PM: 5/158 (2 seats are currently unavailable/out of order)

3:30PM: 0/98 (2 seats are currently unavailable/out of order)

4:30PM: 3/158 (2 seats are currently unavailable/out of order)

7:00PM: 5/158 (2 seats are currently unavailable/out of order)

9:30PM: 3/158 (2 seats are currently unavailable/out of order)

Total: 16/728

 

34th Street:

2:00PM: 6/65

4:30PM: 3/65

7:00PM: 15/65

9:30PM: 3/65

Total: 27/260

 

Kips Bay:

2:00PM: 5/64

4:30PM: 3/64

7:00PM: 3/64

9:30PM: 2/64

Total: 13/252

 

Sales are obviously awful for this, but there are an alarming amount of solo seats for a kids movie. The only people who will show up are animation nerds obligated to see a new Dreamworks movie  

[Eric Lasagna]

7 minutes ago, vafrow said:

 

It was an August release that moved up to take the July slot when Marvels moved.

 

 

I've been to the theatre quite a bit this summer, and I don't think I've seen a poster or trailer for it anywhere. Only what I saw online when the date change was announced.

With Barbieheimer tracking like it is, I've been wondering if this would move to October. It feels foolish releasing a big film on that weekend right now.

 

Maybe it's getting less promotion in Canada, so, that's why neither of us have seen anything, but, it's in the running with Ruby Gillman for most forgotten about film this summer from what I am seeing.

 

I’ve gotten the trailer, but almost entirely in front of Disney movies like Little Mermaid, Boogeyman, and Elemental. Does seem pretty quiet in terms of promo now, but I felt the same thing for Elemental until after Little Mermaid dropped, so I think it will be the same here after Indy comes out. Quorum’s also pretty good in terms of awareness. I’m optimistic

3 minutes ago, WrathOfHan said:

Ruby Gillman, Teenage Kraken:

TOTAL SALES: 66/1,944 (3.4% of all tickets sold)

Theater Breakdown:

  Reveal hidden contents

Lincoln Square:

2:00PM: 7/176

4:15PM: 2/176

6:45PM: 1/176

9:15PM: 0/176

Total: 10/704

 

Empire:

2:00PM: 5/158 (2 seats are currently unavailable/out of order)

3:30PM: 0/98 (2 seats are currently unavailable/out of order)

4:30PM: 3/158 (2 seats are currently unavailable/out of order)

7:00PM: 5/158 (2 seats are currently unavailable/out of order)

9:30PM: 3/158 (2 seats are currently unavailable/out of order)

Total: 16/728

 

34th Street:

2:00PM: 6/65

4:30PM: 3/65

7:00PM: 15/65

9:30PM: 3/65

Total: 27/260

 

Kips Bay:

2:00PM: 5/64

4:30PM: 3/64

7:00PM: 3/64

9:30PM: 2/64

Total: 13/252

 

Sales are obviously awful for this, but there are an alarming amount of solo seats for a kids movie. The only people who will show up are animation nerds obligated to see a new Dreamworks movie  

Me irl. I’m already picturing myself seeing this on a random Wednesday, awkwardly alone in the back like a loser. Either being the only one or with like one mom and his daughter in the middle. Sad life 

 

(good to see you back in the tracking game)

[GOGODanca]

(D-1) Ruby Gilman: 109 tickets sold (10 locs)/+45 tickets sold over last 2 days

 

Comp: 0.237x Elemental = $569k

 

(D-1) Indiana Jones 5: 907 tickets sold/+150 tickets sold over 2 days

 

Comp:

 

0.343x The Flash = $3.3m

 

 

 

[Shawn Robbins]

On 6/23/2023 at 1:24 AM, emoviefan said:

 

Shawn can you counter this please. Really trying not to get seriously bummed out. I understand Indy with the mixed reviews and not a peak franchise but there is no reason for MI to underperform unless being the 7th movie in a franchise no matter how consistently good it is people just don't care as much.  I dont know just trying to cope right now. 

 

On 6/23/2023 at 1:41 AM, Liiviig 1998 said:

Well sorry to say this a tracking thread where we get raw numbers like actual data . If Data currently is not looking great there is nothing much @Shawn will do to persuade you otherwise.

 

There is a still a week left for Indy if anything changes then the tracking thread will be at hand to provide us with data .

 

 

Mainly a reply for @emoviefan here, but...

 

First and foremost, I think it's important to not get too emotionally involved in box office numbers. If these are movies you're personally excited for, then lean on that. I know from personal experience how challenging that can be, but at the end of the day, a bunch of internet conjecture and analysis paralysis can be very toxic (even when it's not intended to be) for your own sense of real world joy and getting that joy from movies.

 

That said, it's also crucial to keep in mind that all of these movies have different sets of variables to look at on the data side. Indiana Jones is a five-day opener on a holiday that has a repeated history of being... well, weird, for lack of a better word. Sometimes it helps certain movies more than it helps others. Mission: Impossible is cornering a similar audience with a non-traditional weekend opening, and it already faces Oppenheimer entering the pre-sale phase before it.

 

Between those three movies, tracking is not going to be apples-to-apples with much else because they cater to older audiences and they're essentially being asked to pre-buy tickets for several movies at the same time. In this economy? That's a big ask, and it makes word of mouth even more important. That's going to affect long-term trends and short-term trends both when we're talking about pre-sales.

 

As with all forms of predicting, I would not take any kind of tracking as gospel until closer to release, and even then, context has to be applied whether that's looking at growth rates, decline rates, sales beyond just preview shows, market variance, etc.

 

But beyond all of that, I go back to just letting the data be the data and separate it from everything else. It's easy to get sucked into the doom (or hype) rollercoasters that often happen in this thread and this entire forum. Sometimes they're predictively accurate, but sometimes they're not. That's always happened and will always happen. Ultimately, though, it's not important and it's constantly changing like a moving target. Just go and enjoy the movies on your own terms.

[rehpyc]

On 6/27/2023 at 10:28 AM, rehpyc said:

Indy T-3

NTTD: 6.71M

GA: 9.22M

JWD: 7.02M

JW4: 9.23M

Flash: 7.88M

TLM: 8.36M

FX: 9.77M

 

NTTD & JWD are flattening out, Flash has been mostly flat just under 8M, with the rest trending down. The former 2 had pretty poor T-1 to T-0 changes between slower leading sales and lesser walk-ups vs. the rest of the comps. If I had to put a number on things right now, 8M +/- .5.

Indy T-2

NTTD: 6.55M

GA: 8.79M

JWD: 6.96M

JW4: 8.73M

Flash: 7.67M

TLM: 8.21M

FX: 9.36M

[el sid]

Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny counted today for Friday:

NY (AMC Fresh Meadows 7): 277 (7 showtimes)
Miami (AMC Sunset Place 24): 206 (17 showtimes)
Grand Rapids (AMC Grand Rapids 18): 55 (9 showtimes)
Austin (AMC Lakeline 9): 36 (8 showtimes)
Tempe/Phoenix (AMC Centerpoint 11): 36 (7 showtimes)
San Francisco (AMC Metreon 16): 412 (12 showtimes)
LA (AMC Universal): 660 (15 showtimes)

Total tickets sold in 7 theaters: 1.692.

Up modest 28% since Monday.
Comps (all counted on Monday of the release week for Friday): BT (30M OW) had 1.000 sold tickets,
JW4 (73.8M) had 2.584,
TG: M (126.7M) had 3.549,
Uncharted (44M) had 982,
Fast X (67M) had 1.999,
Dungeons & Dragon (37.2M) had 984,
TLC (30.5M) had 519

and Death on the Nile (12.9M) had 357 sold tickets.

I expected a way better jump and of course as a result it lost ground in the comps today. Some weeks ago I said that often it looks better for a film in my theaters than in other reports and then, in the last week, the jumps are too small. And it seems like this is happening with Indiana Jones 5 too.
Still every comp (except for JW4) points to an OW of at least 50M and I expect pretty good walk-ups but I'm also a bit disappointed.

[Starphanluke]

So I just went to grab myself a ticket for the first Indy 5 showing tomorrow. 4pm Dolby at one of the busiest theaters in the city (fairly large Midwestern city), and it's bleak. 15 tickets sold for the showing. 

 

Granted, it's a 4pm on a Thursday, but these showings for the tentpoles are almost always near-sellout on the Thursday premium screens.

 

The rest of the weekend doesn't look quite so dire (it looks a lot like Transformers did a couple of weeks ago), but it's a shock to see the previews so light. 

[Tinalera]

Mission Impossible 7

Thurs July 13, Fri June 14 (T-16)

Toronto and Montreal Canada

 

MI 7
Toronto	# theatre	#show	Seats Sold	Seats Rem	Ttl seat	Percent
Thurs	4	28	156	6471	6627	0.0235
Fri	4	22	265	6571	6836	0.0387
Montreal	# theatre	#show	Seats Sold	Seats Rem	Ttl seat	Percent
Thurs	4	22	174	6106	6280	0.0277
Fri	4	16	20	4237	4257	0.0046

 

 

Comp John Wick 4 (T-16)

 

Toron	# theatre	#show	Seats Sold	Seats Rem	Ttl seat	Percent
Thurs	3	12	41	3339	3380	0.0121
Fri	3	17	160	5092	5252	0.0304
Montrea	# theatre	#show	Seats Sold	Seats Rem	Ttl seat	Percent
Thurs	3	15	32	3754	3786	0.0084
Fri	3	18	20	4862	4882	0.0040

 

Total Seat Availablity Difference

 

MI 7	6627	6836	6280	4257
WIck 4	3380	5252	3786	4882
diff	3247	1584	2494	-625

[el sid]

But I have also some good news today .

Insidious: The Red Door counted today for next Thursday:

NY (AMC Fresh Meadows 7): 53 (4 showtimes)
Miami (AMC Sunset Place 24): 13 (3 showtimes)
Grand Rapids (AMC Grand Rapids 18): 3 (2 showtimes)
Austin (AMC Lakeline 9): 0 (4 showtimes)
Tempe/Phoenix (AMC Centerpoint 11): 15 (3 showtimes)
San Francisco (AMC Metreon 16): 23 (3 showtimes)
LA (AMC Universal): 153 (3 showtimes)

Total tickets sold in 7 theaters: 260.

Comps (all films counted on Monday of the release week which means Insidious has 5 days left): The Invitation had 96 sold tickets,
Prey for the Devil 115,
Halloween Kills 591,
Barbarian 156,
Smile 213

and M3gan had 274 sold tickets.
Beast had 53 sold tickets with 10 days to go
and The Boogeyman also with 10 days left 39 sold tickets.

(Very) good so far. 25M+ OW.
 

Edited June 28, 2023 by el sid

[WrathOfHan]

Mission: Impossible Dead Reckoning Part One (Tuesday)

TOTAL SALES: 1,336/9,788 (13.64% of all tickets sold)

PLF SHARE: 87.5% (1,169)

IMAX: 928

DOLBY: 241

STANDARD: 167

 

Theater Breakdown:

Spoiler

Lincoln Square:

2:00PM IMAX: 245/475

2:45PM Dolby: 59/297

4:00PM: 0/362

6:30PM Dolby: 28/297

7:30PM: 5/362

8:30PM: 2/342

10:30PM Dolby: 9/297

11:00PM IMAX: 168/475

Total: 516/2,907

 

Empire:

2:00PM Dolby: 45/204

2:30PM IMAX: 32/321

3:00PM: 3/377 (4 seats are currently unavailable/out of order)

4:00PM: 0/319

5:00PM Open Caption: 1/309

6:00PM IMAX: 137/321

6:30PM: 4/377 (4 seats are currently unavailable/out of order)

7:30PM: 0/319

8:30PM: 4/309

9:30PM IMAX: 25/321

10:00PM: 2/377 (4 seats are currently unavailable/out of order)

11:00PM Dolby: 8/204

Total: 261/3,758

 

34th Street:

2:00PM: 4/75

2:40PM Dolby: 17/131

3:25 IMAX: 30/219 

5:30PM: 24/75

6:15 Dolby: 58/131

7:00PM IMAX: 130/219

9:00PM: 0/75

9:50PM Dolby: 17/131

10:35PM IMAX: 9/219

Total: 289/1,275

 

Kips Bay:

2:00PM Open Caption: 8/174 

3:00PM IMAX: 27/338

4:00PM: 5/156

5:45PM: 17/174

6:45PM IMAX: 148/338

7:45PM: 27/156

9:30PM: 22/174

10:30PM IMAX: 8/338

Total: 270/1,848

 

[DisposedData]

Barbie feels like a mini Mario with these comps 

[WrathOfHan]

Insidious: The Red Door (Thursday)

TOTAL SALES: 107/1,284 (8.33% of all tickets sold)

 

Theater Breakdown (Lincoln Square has not posted showtimes yet):

Spoiler

Empire 25:

4:00PM: 14/158 (2 seats are currently unavailable/out of order)

6:45PM: 16/158 (2 seats are currently unavailable/out of order)

9:30PM: 11/158 (2 seats are currently unavailable/out of order)

Total: 41/474

 

34th Street:

4:00PM: 5/114

6:40PM: 29/114

9:20PM: 10/114

Total: 44/342

 

Kips Bay:

4:00PM: 5/156

6:45PM: 14/156

9:30PM: 3/156

Total: 22/468