The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread (December 2021 - July 2023)

[Deep Wang]

49 minutes ago, YSLDC said:

I don't want to go off-topic on this thread but superhero movies over performing tracking by 50% has happened before...

 

Not BOT tracking lol

[BadOlCatSylvester]

19 minutes ago, LegendaryBen said:

Plus, worse WOM and it being on Peacock same day could lead it to a sub-$45m OW. I'm on #TeamSmile

I'll go even further and say I'm expecting a sub-40 opening. I've read the recent leaks, and from the looks of it the word of mouth is going to be even worse than the likes of Batman v Superman.

[Joyous Legion]

47 minutes ago, Deep Wang said:

 

Not BOT tracking lol

I think some were below 60 on V2 for a good chunk of the run up to that tbf.  

 

But BA wouldn't need to outperform bot tracking by 50% to top smile, it would need to outperform by like 100%. That indeed, does not and will not happen.

[TwoMisfits]

Every Amazon Prime subscriber is getting 2 free tickets to redeem for Till to use between Oct 13-16 at select big city theaters...no idea if this is box office or not, or how this will be recorded...

[filmlover]

32 minutes ago, TwoMisfits said:

Every Amazon Prime subscriber is getting 2 free tickets to redeem for Till to use between Oct 13-16 at select big city theaters...no idea if this is box office or not, or how this will be recorded...

It must be a special deal (due to the Amazon/MGM thing) because it's opening in limited release this weekend (everywhere on the 28th).

[Eric the Minion]

Quorum Updates

Halloween Ends T-4: 57.16% Awareness, 6.63 Interest

Devotion T-44: 19.73%, 5.01

Empire of Light T-60: 12.13%, 4.56

Babylon T-88: 21.61%, 5.06

The Super Mario Bros. Movie T-172: 39.72%, 6.14

Barbie T-284: 37.09%, 4.36

 

Black Panther: Wakanda Forever T-32: 61.02% Awareness, 6.79 Interest

Comps (All T-30): Spider-Man: No Way Home w/ 51.47% Awareness & 6.36 Interest, The Batman w/ 69.08% & 6.65, Doctor Strange 2 w/ 54.35% & 6.46, Thor: Love and Thunder w/ 51.58% & 6.35

 

T-30 General Awareness: 100% chance of 100M

General Interest: 100% chance of 50M, 86% chance of 70M, 71% chance over 100M

DC/MCU Awareness: 100% chance of 100M

DC/MCU Interest: 100% chance of 100M

 

She Said T-39: 15.07% Awareness, 4.5 Interest

Comps (All T-30): The Protege w/ 16.48% Awareness & 5.54 Interest, Dear Evan Hansen w/ 21.94% & 4.71, Last Night in Soho w/ 22.04% & 4.72, Where the Crawdads Sing w/ 22.95% & 5.07, The Woman King w/ 19.76% & 4.84

 

T-30 General Awareness: 33% chance of double-digit opening

General Interest: 31% chance of double-digit opening

Original - Low Awareness: 36% chance over 5M, 18% over double-digits

Original - Low Interest: 40% chance over 5M, 20% over double-digits

 

House Party T-60: 21.49% Awareness, 5.08 Interest

Comps (All T-60): West Side Story w/ 34.94% Awareness & 5.21 Interest, Cyrano w/ 22.05% & 4.89

 

T-60 General Awareness: 46% chance of double-digit opening

General Interest: 79% chance of double-digit opening

[filmlover]

Glass Onion tickets are now on sale FYI.

[ringedmortality]

So is Black Adam looking to open sub-50? Because that's not great.

[filmlover]

9 minutes ago, filmlover said:

Glass Onion tickets are now on sale FYI.

Looking around it seems like theaters are giving it big auditoriums everywhere for Thanksgiving weekend. Assume it's part of the deal that it won't be on more than one screen.

[Porthos]

5 hours ago, Legion By Night said:

@Porthos 

 

Today the total sold for comps is much higher than yday+daily sold. Did you accidentally pull t-9 or something?

 

What the....

 

*checks*

 

I have no idea how that happened.  Or rather, why that happened.  The F9 comp was right, but I punched in the wrong field for everything else.

 

Sigh.  Fixed and thanks for the heads up.

[Maggie]

49 minutes ago, ringedmortality said:

So is Black Adam looking to open sub-50?

REALLY? Are presales that bad?

[charlie Jatinder]

33 minutes ago, Porthos said:

 

What the....

 

*checks*

 

I have no idea how that happened.  Or rather, why that happened.  The F9 comp was right, but I punched in the wrong field for everything else.

 

Sigh.  Fixed and thanks for the heads up.

Porthos lost it.

[Eric the Minion]

Previews for Black Adam judging by Philly seem like 6.5M or something. Going from there to 50M would be a 7.69x IM, which sounds right, if not a little too high. So yeah, sub-50 seems possible. Hopefully things turn around of course.

[Maggie]

Just now, Eric the Crocodile said:

Previews for Black Adam judging by Philly seem like 6.5M or something. Going from there to 50M would be a 7.69x IM, which sounds right, if not a little too high. So yeah, sub-50 seems possible. Hopefully things turn around of course.

Damn. Hopefully it's walk up heavy

[SpiderByte]

Maybe Rock will turn around on disconnecting Shazam and Black Adam now

[DlAMONDZ]

Zachary Levi is a bigger draw than The Rock and Margot Robbie

Edited October 10, 2022 by DlAMONDZ

[cookie]

24 minutes ago, Eric the Crocodile said:

Previews for Black Adam judging by Philly seem like 6.5M or something. Going from there to 50M would be a 7.69x IM, which sounds right, if not a little too high. So yeah, sub-50 seems possible. Hopefully things turn around of course.

Venom 2 IM would put it just over $50m. Feel like BA should gun for a $7m+ number just to be safe.

Edited October 10, 2022 by cookie

[filmlover]

IMO the biggest issue facing Black Adam is that everything about it just looks dull and derivative. At least Morbius promised a trainwreck (which tend to stick around longer than something forgettable).

[YSLDC]

2 hours ago, Legion By Night said:

I think some were below 60 on V2 for a good chunk of the run up to that tbf.  

 

But BA wouldn't need to outperform bot tracking by 50% to top smile, it would need to outperform by like 100%. That indeed, does not and will not happen.

 

Obviously I'm not "technical" with Black Adam overtaking Smile DOM on its opening weekend, but it will not be far off imo. 

 

I know tracking here points to 50-60 for Black Adam, but the world premiere, social media reactions and reviews didn't happen yet. Henry Cavill coming back can create a storm. I think 90-100 is possible. We will see. 

[VanillaSkies]

4 hours ago, TwoMisfits said:

Every Amazon Prime subscriber is getting 2 free tickets to redeem for Till to use between Oct 13-16 at select big city theaters...no idea if this is box office or not, or how this will be recorded...

this is interesting considering it won’t even be released wide until the end of October. How do they expect most people to use those ticket Oct 13-16… seems odd