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The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread (December 2021 - July 2023)

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Posted by Shawn Robbins,

PSA:   As a heads up to everyone, we'll be starting a new thread here very soon. For those who are newer to the forum, we typically have to split threads once they reach 1,000+ pages and are still highly active. In the past, such topics have created database slowdown issues that affect the entire forum.   Rest assured, this thread will be archived when it is locked and a link to the new one will be posted to help you find it easily (it will also be pinned to the top of the box o
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Posted by XXR & Friends,

Yea we're gonna drop all this non tracking stuff. That expressly means you, @excel1. Next post from you that isn't tracking related is a thread ban.    Anyone else continues, it's points. 

We're all tired of the non-tracking related thread derailments. This is your fair warning.

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katnisscinnaplex Box Office Gold

katnisscinnaplex

Posted
Posted
23 hours ago, katnisscinnaplex said:

Santikos Tracking

 

By format

 

Day Movie Format Shows New Sold True Cap % Sold ATP Gross
T-15 Avatar 2 PLF 43 798* 1,452 6,710 21.64% $16.09 $23,358.17
    Standard 15 148* 268 2,106 12.73% $12.31 $3,298.22
  Total   58 946 1,720 8,816 19.51% $15.50 $26,656.39
T-16 Avatar 2 (Fri) PLF 63 1,127 1,127 10,002 11.27% $16.54 $18,646.14
    Standard 21 250 250 3,024 8.27% $12.49 $3,121.28
  Total   84 1,377 1,377 13,026 10.57% $15.81 $21,767.42
T-17 Avatar 2 (Sat) PLF 60 1,224 1,224 9,327 13.12% $15.40 $18,855.56
    Standard 21 290 290 3,024 9.59% $10.74 $3,113.47
  Total   81 1,514 1,514 12,351 12.26% $14.51 $21,969.03
T-18 Avatar 2 (Sun) PLF 63 653 653 10,002 6.53% $15.14 $9,888.69
    Standard 21 149 149 3,024 4.93% $9.84 $1,465.69
  Total   84 802 802 13,026 6.16% $14.16 $11,354.38

 

By matinee

 

Day Movie Mat Shows New Sold True Cap % Sold ATP Gross
T-15 Avatar 2 N 37 747* 1,388 5,693 24.38% $16.29 $22,607.00
    Y 21 199* 332 3,123 10.63% $12.20 $4,049.39
  Total   58 946 1,720 8,816 19.51% $15.50 $26,656.39
T-16 Avatar 2 (Fri) N 37 1,138 1,138 6,105 18.64% $16.62 $18,912.62
    Y 47 239 239 6,921 3.45% $11.94 $2,854.80
  Total   84 1,377 1,377 13,026 10.57% $15.81 $21,767.42
T-17 Avatar 2 (Sat) N 36 691 691 5,880 11.75% $17.62 $12,172.70
    Y 45 823 823 6,471 12.72% $11.90 $9,796.33
  Total   81 1,514 1,514 12,351 12.26% $14.51 $21,969.03
T-18 Avatar 2 (Sun) N 37 274 274 6,105 4.49% $18.72 $5,129.55
    Y 47 528 528 6,921 7.63% $11.79 $6,224.83
  Total   84 802 802 13,026 6.16% $14.16 $11,354.38

*Previews new sales since 11/22

 

Avatar previews T-15 comps

 - NWH - .125x (6.255m)

 - Batman - missed

 - Thor 4 - missed

 - DS2 - .183x (6.579m)

 - BP2 - missed

 - Top Gun 2 - 1.412x (20.76m)

 

Avatar Fri T-16 comps

 - NWH - .133x (9.574m)

 

Don't have any comps this far out for weekend sales unfortunately.  

Santikos Tracking

 

By format

 

Day Movie Format Shows New Sold True Cap % Sold ATP Gross
T-14 Avatar 2 PLF 43 62 1,514 6,710 22.56% $16.04 $24,288.40
    Standard 15 3 271 2,106 12.87% $12.33 $3,340.43
  Total   58 65 1,785 8,816 20.25% $15.48 $27,628.83
T-15 Avatar 2 (Fri) PLF 63 67 1,194 10,002 11.94% $16.58 $19,790.99
    Standard 21 36 286 3,024 9.46% $12.47 $3,566.77
  Total   84 103 1,480 13,026 11.36% $15.78 $23,357.76
T-16 Avatar 2 (Sat) PLF 60 47 1,271 9,327 13.63% $15.44 $19,618.26
    Standard 21 17 307 3,024 10.15% $10.74 $3,297.01
  Total   81 64 1,578 12,351 12.78% $14.52 $22,915.27
T-17 Avatar 2 (Sun) PLF 63 54 707 10,002 7.07% $15.18 $10,733.13
    Standard 21 22 171 3,024 5.65% $10.05 $1,718.51
  Total   84 76 878 13,026 6.74% $14.18 $12,451.64

 

By matinee

 

Day Movie Mat Shows New Sold True Cap % Sold ATP Gross
T-14 Avatar 2 N 37 49 1,437 5,693 25.24% $16.27 $23,381.05
    Y 21 16 348 3,123 11.14% $12.21 $4,247.78
  Total   58 65 1,785 8,816 20.25% $15.48 $27,628.83
T-15 Avatar 2 (Fri) N 37 83 1,221 6,105 20.00% $16.60 $20,263.42
    Y 47 20 259 6,921 3.74% $11.95 $3,094.34
  Total   84 103 1,480 13,026 11.36% $15.78 $23,357.76
T-16 Avatar 2 (Sat) N 36 34 725 5,880 12.33% $17.60 $12,757.08
    Y 45 30 853 6,471 13.18% $11.91 $10,158.19
  Total   81 64 1,578 12,351 12.78% $14.52 $22,915.27
T-17 Avatar 2 (Sun) N 37 26 300 6,105 4.91% $18.72 $5,615.67
    Y 47 50 578 6,921 8.35% $11.83 $6,835.97
  Total   84 76 878 13,026 6.74% $14.18 $12,451.64

 

Avatar previews T-14 comps

 - NWH - .128x (6.413m)

 - Batman - missed

 - Thor 4 - .346x (10.03m)

 - DS2 - .187x (6.74m)

 - BP2 - missed

 - Top Gun 2 - 1.379x (20.28m)

 

Avatar Fri T-15 comps

 - NWH - .137x (9.87m)

 

Don't have any comps this far out for weekend sales unfortunately.  

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ZackM Box Office Gold

ZackM

Posted
Posted
On 11/30/2022 at 8:56 AM, ZackM said:

 

 

Avatar: The Way of Water
Alpha Chain
Premiere Night Seat Report: T-16 days
           
  Last Day 2 Days Ago 3 Days Ago 4 Days Ago 5 Days Ago
Showings Added 9 6 14 2 0
Seats Added 2,157 705 2,865 400 0
Seats Sold 2,294 2,378 3,195 3,124 2,733
           
11/29/2022 Theaters Showings Seats Sold Total Seats Pct. Sold
Total 436 4,433 68,487 742,065 9.23%
           
% of Seats Sold Sellouts 90%+ 80%+ 70%+ 60%+
# of Showings 0 0 10 32 89
           
ATP          
$19.20          

 

 

 

Avatar: The Way of Water Forever Comps
  Thor: Love & Thunder Black Panther:Wakanda Forever Jurassic World: Dominion
  Unweighted Weighted Unweighted Weighted Unweighted Weighted
D0            
T-0            
T-1            
T-2            
T-3            
T-4            
T-5            
T-6            
T-7            
T-8            
T-9            
T-10            
T-11            
T-12            
T-13            
T-14            
T-15            
T-16 $10.4 $11.6 $10.9 $12.2 $20.7 $22.0
T-17 $10.3 $11.5 $10.7 $12.0 $20.6 $21.9
T-18 $10.2 $11.4 $10.5 $11.8 $20.5 $21.8

 

From last night:

 

Avatar: The Way of Water
Alpha Chain
Premiere Night Seat Report: T-15 days
           
  Last Day 2 Days Ago 3 Days Ago 4 Days Ago 5 Days Ago
Showings Added 7 9 6 14 2
Seats Added 866 2,157 705 2,865 400
Seats Sold 2,838 2,294 2,378 3,195 3,124
           
11/30/2022 Theaters Showings Seats Sold Total Seats Pct. Sold
Total 436 4,440 71,325 742,931 9.60%
           
% of Seats Sold Sellouts 90%+ 80%+ 70%+ 60%+
# of Showings 0 0 10 35 93
           
ATP          
$19.14          

 

 

 

Avatar: The Way of Water Forever Comps
  Thor: Love & Thunder Black Panther: Wakanda Forever Jurassic World: Dominion
  Unweighted Weighted Unweighted Weighted Unweighted Weighted
D0            
T-0            
T-1            
T-2            
T-3            
T-4            
T-5            
T-6            
T-7            
T-8            
T-9            
T-10            
T-11            
T-12            
T-13            
T-14            
T-15 $10.6 $11.8 $11.1 $12.4 $21.0 $22.3
T-16 $10.4 $11.6 $10.9 $12.2 $20.7 $22.0
T-17 $10.3 $11.5 $10.7 $12.0 $20.6 $21.9
T-18 $10.2 $11.4 $10.5 $11.8 $20.5 $21.8

 

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hw64 Sleeper Hit

hw64

Posted
Posted
7 minutes ago, GOGODanca said:

Generally speaking around how much higher do we expect ATP for A2 to be compared to other 2022 blockbusters?

 

Domestically, I'd say around 10%. Overseas, it'll vary significantly between markets.

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filmlover Cinematic Universe

filmlover

Posted
Posted
2 minutes ago, ringedmortality said:

I wonder if they had waited a little bit Searchlights release dates for Banshees and Empire would have been switched.

 

 

Banshees is gonna be on HBO Max by the middle of this month so maybe they figured they would have more luck on streaming instead since it’s already vanishing even in NY/LA. I wanted to see it in theaters while it was still playing but by the time I had the chance to do so, it was already gone near me.

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el sid Box Office Gold

el sid

Posted
Posted (edited)

Christmas market yesterday, sorry :).

 

Violent Night, counted today at 10am EST for today:

NY (AMC Fresh Meadows 7): 69 (3 showtimes)
Miami (AMC Sunset Place 24): 37 (4 showtimes)
Grand Rapids (AMC Grand Rapids 18): 8 (3 showtimes)
Austin (AMC Lakeline 9): 3 (2 showtimes)
Tempe/Phoenix (AMC Centerpoint 11): 6 (2 showtimes)
San Francisco (AMC Metreon 16): 61 (4 showtimes)
LA (AMC Universal): 86 (8 showtimes)


Total tickets sold in 7 theaters: 270.

Comps (both counted on Thursday for Thursday): The Invitation (775k from previews) had 218 sold tickets

and The Forever Purge (1.3M) had 241 sold tickets.
1M+ looks possible.
 

Violent Night, counted today at 10am EST for tomorrow:

NY (AMC Fresh Meadows 7): 70 (5 showtimes)
Miami (AMC Sunset Place 24): 43 (10 showtimes)
Grand Rapids (AMC Grand Rapids 18): 11 (6 showtimes)
Austin (AMC Lakeline 9): 9 (3 showtimes)
Tempe/Phoenix (AMC Centerpoint 11): 12 (6 showtimes)
San Francisco (AMC Metreon 16): 76 (7 showtimes)
LA (AMC Universal): 88 (8 showtimes)


Total tickets sold in 6 theaters: 309. Not frontloaded at all in my theaters which is always a good sign.

Comps (all counted on Thursday for Friday): The Invitation (6.8M OW) had 204 sold tickets,
Easter Sunday (6M) had 297,

Hitman's Wife's Bodyguard (11.4M) had 203,

Free Guy (28.4M) had 624,

Ambulance (8.7M) had 391

and Cop Shop (2.3M) had 37 sold tickets.

Almost all comps point to more than 10M. And I think that it will have nice walk-ups, way more than e.g. Ambulance. I noticed that it's at 64% at RT at the moment and a member mentioned here a few days ago that the reactions from moviegoers who already saw it were good. So I guess that even 15M aren't impossible, at least judging from my theaters.

 

The Whale had in the AMC Lincoln Square today 281 sold tickets for next Thursday and 172 for next Friday.
Comps: Racing in the Rain's final sales (=on Thursday for Thursday) were 85 sold tickets for Thursday and 139 sold tickets for Friday (on both days in 6 theaters).
Zola had on its release day for its release day 114 sold tickets in 5 theaters.
It's only one theater but nice numbers!

Edited by el sid
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katnisscinnaplex Box Office Gold

katnisscinnaplex

Posted
Posted
7 hours ago, katnisscinnaplex said:

Movie Day Area TC Shows New Sold Seats % Sold
Violent Night T-0 Jax 6 28 34 90 3,375 2.67%
    Phx 7 25 38 103 3,599 2.86%
    Ral 8 23 4 73 2,869 2.54%
  Total   21 76 76 266 9,843 2.70%

 

Violent Night T-0 comps

 - Easter Sunday - 2.13x (1.06m)

 - Bullet Train - .255x (854k)

 - Northman - .485x (654k)

 - Snake Eyes - .643x (899k)

 - Massive Talent - 1.01x (708k)

 - Smile - 1.323x (2.25m)

 - Bones and All - 2.8x (966k)

Movie Day Area TC Shows New Sold Seats % Sold
Violent Night 1-Hr Jax 6 28 62 152 3,375 4.50%
    Phx 7 26 40 143 3,648 3.92%
    Ral 8 23 55 128 2,869 4.46%
  Total   21 77 157 423 9,892 4.28%

 

Violent Night T-1 hr comps

 - Easter Sunday - 2.61x (1.31m)

 - Bullet Train - .284x (953k)

 - Northman - .511x (691k)

 - Snake Eyes - .616x (862k)

 - Massive Talent - .97x (690k)

 - Smile - .972x (1.65m)

 - Bones and All - missed

 - Father Stu - 1.46x (805k)

 - Amsterdam - 1.555x (855k)

All R movies - 962k

All comedy movies - 1m

All movies - 904k

 

Excellent final day and it looks like walkups are going to do well.  I've been on the 850k train for most of the week but I'm ready to bump my previews prediction up all the way to 950k!

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Eric the Minion Global Phenomenon

Eric the Minion

Posted
Posted
17 hours ago, Eric Claus said:

Violent Night Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-1 and Counting

  Sellouts Showings Seats Sold Total Seats Perct Sold
TOTALS 0 44 256 6709 3.82%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 54

 

Comp

0.985x of Snake Eyes T-1 (1.38M)

0.234x of The Suicide Squad T-1 (959K)

0.842x of Free Guy T-1 (1.85m)

0.952x of The King's Man T-1 (761K)

0.288x of Uncharted T-1 (1.06M)

1.765x of Ambulance T-1 (1.24M)

0.618x of The Northman T-1 (835K)

0.162x of Bullet Train T-1 (743K)

Violent Night Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report Final Count

  Sellouts Showings Seats Sold Total Seats Perct Sold
TOTALS 0 44 408 6709 6.08%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 152

 

Comp

0.626x of Snake Eyes (876K)

0.201x of The Suicide Squad (823K)

0.583x of Free Guy (1.28M)

0.936x of The King's Man (749K)

0.295x of Uncharted (1.09M)

1.342x of Ambulance (939K)

0.669x of The Northman (903K)

0.233x of Bullet Train (1.07M)

 

Pretty meh final day. I guess 900K previews?

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Krissykins Global Phenomenon

Krissykins

Posted
Posted
6 hours ago, GOGODanca said:

Generally speaking around how much higher do we expect ATP for A2 to be compared to other 2022 blockbusters?

+£1 here in the UK for IMAX. Over and above the usual price bump. Standard showings are £11.99 the same as the other big 2022 films, which is already £2 more than all of the others. 

 

 

Hoping that Violent Night can get over $10m for the weekend. 

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CJohn Cinematic Universe

CJohn

Posted
Posted
8 hours ago, filmlover said:

I was really hoping that Violent Night would make similar numbers to Krampus but I guess that’s the state of moviegoing in 2015 vs in 2022 for ya. At least it seems destined to have a nice life on streaming.

16M in 2015 is 8M in 2022.

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Inceptionzq Box Office Gold

Inceptionzq

Posted
Posted
On 11/30/2022 at 11:54 AM, Inceptionzq said:

Avatar The Way of Water Denver Thursday Showings

AMC Westminster 24

Total 542 2354 23.02%

AMC Highlands Ranch 24

Total 344 1774 19.39%

 

SEATS SOLD SOLD PAST 4 DAYS TOTAL SEATS PERCENT SOLD THEATERS SHOWINGS
2213 559 24555 9.01% 15 161

 

AMCs sold 1405
Cinemarks sold 315
Regals sold 289
Harkins sold 204

 

1.23x Jurassic World 3 T-16 (22.18M)

0.878x Top Gun 2 T-16 (16.91M)

0.711x Batman T-16 (15.36M)

1.85x Eternals T-16 (17.58M)

 

This was counted about 18 hours ago. Same goes for Megaplex and Drafthouse

Avatar The Way of Water Denver Thursday Showings

AMC Westminster 24

Total 584 2354 24.81%

AMC Highlands Ranch 24

Total 368 1774 20.74%

 

SEATS SOLD SOLD PAST 2 DAYS TOTAL SEATS PERCENT SOLD THEATERS SHOWINGS
2445 232 24555 9.96% 15 161

 

AMCs sold 1528
Cinemarks sold 342
Regals sold 329
Harkins sold 246

 

0.528x Thor L&T T-14 (15.32M)

0.863x Top Gun 2 T-14 (16.62M)

1.84x Eternals T-14 (17.48M)

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