The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread (December 2021 - July 2023)

[lorddemaxus]

1 hour ago, filmlover said:

FWIW sales for Magic Mike were weak around here but tomorrow night is looking like a different story with how busy the prime 7-8 shows are. The Girls Friday/Opening Night Out factor is just the MO for this particular franchise I suppose since the first two were also crazy frontloaded (it could $5M tomorrow and still miss $10M thanks to the Super Bowl).

Noticing the same thing around near me too. 

[keysersoze123]

Horrendous walkups for Magic Mike. Does not portend good things for its internal multiplier. Definitely not hitting double digit this weekend. 80 for brady could win this with a solid hold. 

 

Magic Mike 3 MTC1 previews - 16886/173661 260598.16 1065 shows

 

Thinking 850K previews. 

[keysersoze123]

Since its exactly a week to go for Ant-man release.

 

Ant-Man 3 MTC1 previews (T-7) - 169924/946664 2998772.40 5204 shows

 

Staying flat from yesterday's pace(~4900). Well below pace of recent MCU releases. But there is still time. Let us see how things go tomorrow. 

 

[Eric Duncan]

23 hours ago, Magic Eric said:

Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quantumania Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-8 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	175	4863	32764	14.84%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 157

 

Comp - T-8

1.937x of Black Widow (25.57M)

3.451x of Shang-Chi (30.37M)

2.439x of Eternals (23.17M)

0.272x of Spider-Man: No Way Home (13.63M)

0.843x of The Batman (18.21M)

0.435x of Doctor Strange 2 (15.66M)

0.752x of Thor 4 (21.82M)

0.586x of Black Panther 2 (16.41M)

1.955x of Avatar 2 (33.24M)

Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quantumania Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-7 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	175	5024	32764	15.33%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 161

 

Comp - T-7

1.900x of Black Widow (25.08M)

3.262x of Shang-Chi (28.71M)

2.397x of Eternals (22.77M)

0.274x of Spider-Man: No Way Home (13.68M)

0.840x of The Batman (18.16M)

0.425x of Doctor Strange 2 (15.28M)

0.747x of Thor 4 (21.65M)

0.580x of Black Panther 2 (16.25M)

1.859x of Avatar 2 (31.61M)

 

Yeah I think sub-20 previews are happening guys. Oh well.

[Eric Duncan]

23 hours ago, Magic Eric said:

Scream VI Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-29 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	41	171	7068	2.42%

 

Comp - First Day of Sales

2.280x of Scream (7.98M)

 

Comp - T-29

1.049x of Nope (6.71M)

 

This is actually the farthest comp out for all my long-range horror films tracked, but I knew @Krissykins would pester me for some sort of comparison, so this is T-29 vs. T-27. But yeah...this new one got a much bigger start lol (and yeah I know a lot of it is because the last Scream started its sales during the Christmas season, but...still pretty far ahead).

Scream VI Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-28 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	41	255	7068	3.61%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 84

 

Comp - First Two Days of Sales

1.889x of Scream (6.61M)

 

Comp - T-28

1.441x of Nope (9.22M)

[Eric Duncan]

Fast X Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-98 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	71	62	16560	0.37%

 

Just to clarify, we are going to do things a little differently here. There's way too many days to track, and I gotta deal with Ant-Man, Creed, Scream, Shazam, John Wick, Mario, and Guardians before this comes out. To say nothing of the stuff that will be in presales afterwards.

 

So I will track the film's first week, if only because I'm curious to see the bumps this has when the trailer drops tomorrow and how the Super Bowl spot gives it a further boost. Then I'm just going to give an update every Thursday, since Thursday's basically when the slate gets reset anyways. And then when we get to T-42, April 6 to be exact, then I'll go back to tracking it daily. Both Jurassic World: Dominion and Nope started their presales on T-42, those are likely going to be some of the best comps I have (well, minus F9 of course), and that's the farthest long-range comps I have anyways. So I hope that's all clear and makes sense.

[Porthos]

Fast X Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-98 days and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	156	23563	23624	61	0.26%

 

 

Total Seats Sold Today

61

 

0.40800x F9 (2020) after 1 day of pre-sales at the equivalent sources of tracking. [???m]

 

Regal:       12/8019  [0.15% sold]
Matinee:    3/2638  [0.11% | 4.92% of all tickets sold]

 

========================

 

Like Eric, I'm going to be doing things a little differently.  No sense on any sort of comps, especially since this was akin to a pre-announcement of sorts.  Did still have data from the 2020 pre-'rona run, however, so I decided to give something of a like for like, though I don't recall if there was a trailer drop or not or the exact circumstances of the first few days of sales.

 

Unlike Eric, however, I'm going to be reporting a bit more often.  Partially coz I don't track nearly as many films as he does. But also, frankly, because I'm anal.

 

But not nearly anal enough to actually report here every day.  Think I'll stick to the schedule I laid out here:

 

On 1/13/2023 at 5:38 PM, Porthos said:

 

Can't actually directly quote the post, but here is what I said back in '20 regarding F9's first run.

 

 

What I ended up doing, IIRC, was:

 

Daily: First three or four days, or so.

Th/Su: Next couple of weeks.

Weekly: After the first month.

 

Might have shifted to semimonthly, except then the 'rona hit and everything went up in smoke.  FWIW, since it took no time at all, I did update my home sheet daily.  Just wasn't much point in posting daily updates here.

 

Have to go back and check to see just how often I did actually post totals here, but I reckon the above playbook should work (Daily ---> Th/Su ----> Weekly [----> Semimonthly if it gets too slow]).

 

and play it by ear about when exactly I make each transition.

 

Edited February 11, 2023 by Porthos

[Porthos]

13 hours ago, Porthos said:

 

Missing a couple of very minor things I sometimes post coz I'm doing this at utterly the last minute and I need to error correct them.

 

But, for now....

 

Scream VI Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-29 days and counting

(NOTE: Sample taken 10am following morning)

 

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	61	6742	6955	213	3.06%

 

Total Seats Sold Today*

213

(NOTE: Sample taken 10am following morning)

 

Day 1+ Comps

	%		Sold Day 1	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
Sonic 2	117.03		182	182		0/73	11083/11265	1.62%		3951	5.39%		7.31m
Nope	373.68		57	57		0/87	13834/13891	0.41%		3822	5.57%		23.92m

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of Scream VI's current tickets sold versus that final number.

 

T-29  Comp

%

Sold T-29

Total Sold

Sellouts Shows

Seats Left Total Seats

Perct Sold

Final Sold

% of Final

Comp

Nope

125.29

11

170

0/84

13534/13704

1.24%

3822

5.57%

8.02m

 

EVEN WITH A 14 DAY HEAD START, SCREAM VI IS BEATING NOPE!!!

 

===

 

Okay, some provisos.  I tool this sample from about 10:00am to 10:20am my time, so it'll have some early morning sales from Day 2.  But even if I knock 25 tickets or so off, that still is a great comp for a horror film this far out.

 

The one major note of caution:  This could be incredibly frontloaded for a horror film, which is why I added the Sonic 2 Day 1 comp.  Even against something like Sonic 2, which while a family film still had something of an initial fan rush, it still compares very favorably.

 

Frankly, I don't have anything else remotely suitable.  Even Minions 2 doesn't work as that was amazingly backloaded.

 

Either way, looks like I'm in on this train.  If only to see if it can keep clear of 7m on Thurs.

 

Scream VI Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-28 days and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	65	7305	7549	244	3.23%

 

Total Showings Added Today	4
Total Seats Added Today	594
Total Seats Sold Today	31

 

Day 2 Comps

	%		Sold Day 2	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
Sonic 2	112.96		34	216		0/73	11049/11265	1.92%		3951	6.18%		7.06m
Nope	381.25		7	64		0/85	13643/13707	0.47%		3822	6.38%		24.40m

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of Scream VI's current tickets sold versus that final number.

 

T-28  Comp

%

Sold T-28

Total Sold

Sellouts Shows

Seats Left Total Seats

Perct Sold

Final Sold

% of Final

Comp

Nope

138.64

6

176

0/84

13528/13704

1.28%

3822

6.38%

8.87m

 

Regal:       52/2624  [1.98% sold]
Matinee:      21/687  [3.06% | 8.61% of all tickets sold]
3D:            90/2458  [3.66% | 36.89% of all tickets sold]

 

===

 

Not too bad at all; especially since I likely clipped some tickets this morning.

[Porthos]

On 2/9/2023 at 12:00 AM, Porthos said:

 

Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quantumania Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report:

T-8 days and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	237	26881	32664	5783	17.70%

 

Total Showings Removed Today	1
Total Seats Removed Today	130
Total Seats Sold Today	207

 

T-8 Comps

	%		Sold T-8	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
MoM	47.83		397	12090		0/353	30586/42676	28.33%		21117	27.39%		17.22m
L&T	72.89		284	7934		0/237	24680/32614	24.33%		16962	34.09%		21.14m
BP2	68.98		267	8384		2/301	29553/37937	22.10%		16800	34.42%		19.31m

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of Ant-Man 3's current tickets sold versus that final number.

 

Regal:     1280/12874  [9.94% sold]
Matinee:    220/3314  [6.64% | 3.80% of all tickets sold]
3D:            655/6383  [10.26% | 11.33% of all tickets sold]

 

Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quantumania Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report:

T-7 days and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	237	26674	32658	5984	18.32%

 

Total Seats Sold Today

201

 

T-7 Comps

	%		Sold T-7	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
MoM	47.65		467	12557		0/353	30123/42680	29.42%		21117	28.34%		17.16m
L&T	72.32		340	8274		0/240	24544/32818	25.21%		16962	35.28%		20.97m
BP2	68.71		325	8709		2/308	29418/38127	22.84%		16800	35.62%		19.24m

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of Ant-Man 3's current tickets sold versus that final number.

 

Regal:     1313/12874  [10.20% sold]
Matinee:    224/3314  [6.76% | 3.74% of all tickets sold]
3D:            705/6382  [11.05% | 11.78% of all tickets sold]

 

====

 

Yeaaaaah, that... Could be better.

 

FWIW, I do have an Eternals comp (21.43m — 67 tickets sold at T-7), but I'm not putting it in the comp block for a couple of reasons.  One, It was just on the other side of the major round of ticket price hikes that started to rollout in mid/late November '21, so the ATPs will be off.  But, also, coz that replacement theater I mention off and on is just so much better than the theater it replaced that it tends to really tilt the scales.  Maybe both of those factors counter act each other.  But I don't want to mess with it if I don't have to.  Plus the comp is fairly close to L&T anyway (even if the pace is not).

 

I'll keep an eye on it though, if only for pace purposes.

 

But... Yeah.

[thajdikt]

Is 100M off the table if it goes sub 20M previews?

[Legion Again]

33 minutes ago, thajdikt said:

Is 100M off the table if it goes sub 20M previews?

Nah, 100 is likely off previews of say 19. 18 or below and it could get dicey

Edited February 10, 2023 by Favorite Fearless Legion

[M37]

Not sure why the disappointment vibe in recent posts? Numbers are pretty much exactly where they were trending to be

 

On 2/1/2023 at 10:54 AM, M37 said:

At present, the average is floating around $19M, though likely weighted down by the monstrous early pre-sale volume of Strange, and should come up to $20M+ over time ...

 

... but currently doesn't look to pacing for all that much more than that; whole lot of nearly flat lines over the last 4-7 days.  In addition, looking at bit closer at the markets (and accounting for atypical distribution of BPWF) finding that higher comps values are in the more PLF/pre-sale heavy samples like Alpha and Drafthouse, major markets (Sacto, Philly) are a step below, and the secondary markets (Denver, Jax/Pho/Ral) are even trending lower

 

All in all, the sales to this point smell a little fan-heavy-ish, in that while the introduction of Kang spurred a larger early rush, the broader MCU audience appears to still largely view this release as an just another Ant-Man movie. As opening gets closer that perception may change, and won't be surprised with a strong late kick - especially with very good reviews in contrast to the mostly underwhelming phase 4 - but for now expectations are probably best tempered from where they may have vaulted after the opening day of sales

 

T-16 Forecast: $19-$22M Thursday, $100-$130M 3-day

 

On 2/4/2023 at 10:45 AM, M37 said:

The $20-$30M Thursday CBMs generally grew around 24-26% from T-14 to T-7 across all samples, so that's the bar we'll have to see if AMWQ can match or beat (177-179K for Alpha and ~6K for Sacto if you're curious).

With the exception of Philly - which often marches to its own beat - pretty much every sample has grown in that approximate ~25% range over the last week. Sales saw a clear bump Mon & Tue after social media reactions, then calmed down a bit for Wed and Thur, but the overall growth rate was typical for a CBM of this size

 

I'll post the updated chart once we get a data dump from Zack, but holding the Alpha numbers flat from last update keeps the overall average in $19M-$20M range. I guess maybe those who were still holding out hope for something higher are coming to grips with the reality that is? Probably do need to lower the ceiling a bit though

 

T-7 Forecast: $18.5-$21M Thursday, $100-$120 OW (3-day)

[Legion Again]

8 minutes ago, M37 said:

Not sure why the disappointment vibe in recent posts? Numbers are pretty much exactly where they were trending to be

Because they are pretty weak? Below where they would have trended without the poor reactions 

[Menor the Destroyer]

8 minutes ago, M37 said:

Not sure why the disappointment vibe in recent posts? Numbers are pretty much exactly where they were trending to be

 

 

With the exception of Philly - which often marches to its own beat - pretty much every sample has grown in that approximate ~25% range over the last week. Sales saw a clear bump Mon & Tue after social media reactions, then calmed down a bit for Wed and Thur, but the overall growth rate was typical for a CBM of this size

 

I'll post the updated chart once we get a data dump from Zack, but holding the Alpha numbers flat from last update keeps the overall average in $19M-$20M range. I guess maybe those who were still holding out hope for something higher are coming to grips with the reality that is? Probably do need to lower the ceiling a bit though

 

T-7 Forecast: $18.5-$21M Thursday, $100-$120 OW (3-day)

Up until Wednesday was fine enough. Thursday was bad, which is also where the disappointment vibe came from (as well as the fact that reviews can be expected to be weak, which won't help the final few days).

 

I will also object to the "coming to grips with reality" phrasing -- getting a lower-end result doesn't mean that a higher result was impossible (in particular, for this week, one might imagine that social reactions buzz being better would have helped sales more).

[katnisscinnaplex]

On 2/3/2023 at 9:21 AM, katnisscinnaplex said:

Movie	TC	Shows	Change	Standard	Last PSA	PLF	IMAX	3D
Knock at the Cabin	3,216	65,207		59,125		6,082	0	0
80 for Brady	3,330	55,322		55,223		99	0	0
Avatar 2	2,777	34,212	-28.62%	13,187	333.16	21,025	2,878	17,648
Puss in Boots 2	2,860	32,556	-13.29%	32,380	279.62	176	0	111
M3GAN	2,477	26,877	-26.86%	26,493	170.32	384	0	0
A Man Called Otto	2,622	26,612	-21.07%	26,554	197.28	58	0	0
Missing	2,192	24,180	-21.84%	24,075	183.39	105	0	0
The Amazing Maurice	1,672	17,980		17,931		49	0	25
Plane	1,925	17,731	-37.01%	17,702	135.54	29	0	0
The Chosen	1,870	14,949		14,869		80	0	0
Infinity Pool	1,541	10,203	-47.52%	10,198	116.38	5	0	0
BTS: Yet To Come	1,041	8,873		8,873		0	0	0
Women Talking	636	5,299	-27.28%	5,278	133.18	21	0	0
Fear	688	4,015	-63.82%	4,010	97.57	5	0	0
Everything Everywhere	798	3,404	-46.46%	3,390	159.58	14	0	0
The Whale	717	3,367	-63.47%	3,353	109.95	14	0	0
The Fabelmans	882	2,975	-66.70%	2,969	82.62	6	0	0
House Party	319	1,990	-74.36%	1,990	94.62	0	0	0
Black Panther 2	365	1,942	-65.17%	1,935	135.86	7	0	7
Left Behind	353	1,516	-68.99%	1,511	399.18	5	0	0

 

USA Showtimes Sample - 2/3 Weekend

OW Showtimes Comps

80 for Brady (1/28) - 270 (270)

80 for Brady (1/31) - 534 (532)

80 for Brady (2/1) - 538 (537)

80 for Brady - 55,322 (3,330 TC)

 - Marry Me - 53,179 (3,172)

 - Crawdads - 53,855 (3,126)

 - Ticket to Paradise - 60,712 (3,078)

Knock at the Cabin - 65,207 (3,216 TC)

 - Don't Worry Darling - 66,697 (3,387)

 - Violent Night - 68,420 (3,171)

 - Moonfall - 64,611 (3,241)

The Chosen Season 3 - 14,949 (1,870 TC)

 - Show Me the Father - 15,629 (1,054)

 - Christmas with Chosen - 18,800 (1,556)

 - Chosen 3: Episodes 1 & 2 - 22,999 (1,970)

BTS: Yet To Come in Cinemas (3-Day) - 8,873 (1,041 TC)

The Amazing Maurice - 17,980 (1,672 TC)

 - Mr Malcolm's List - 17,592 (1,263)

 

T-1 Week Showtimes Comps

Magic Mike 3 - 19,139 (1,224 TC)

 - King's Man - 19,568 (2,456)

 - Plane - 18,804 (1,527)

Titanic 25 Year - 17,111 (1,598 TC)

 

T-2 Week Previews Showtimes Comps

Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quantumania - 23,932 (2,752 TC)

 - No Way Home - 26,573 (2,835)

 - Thor 4 - 24,565 (2,756)

 - Batman - 23,704 (2,907

Marlowe - 2,227 (849 TC)

 - Death on the Nile - 2,077 (790)

 - Beast - 2,330 (845)

 

T-3 Week Previews Showtimes Comps

Jesus Revolution EA - 2,637 (1,741)

Jesus Revolution - 2,444 (1,544 TC)

Cocaine Bear - 4,525 (1,823 TC)

 - Knock at the Cabin - 4,231 (1,812)

 - Black Phone - 4,270 (1,705)

Movie	TC	Shows	Change	Standard	Last PSA	PLF	IMAX	3D
80 for Brady	3,231	45,674	-3.72%	45,556	229.59	118	0	0
Knock at the Cabin	3,133	44,701	-22.01%	44,421	216.65	280	0	0
Magic Mike 3	1,363	34,530		30,242		4,288	0	0
Puss in Boots 2	2,819	32,851	0.91%	32,677	242.02	174	0	102
Avatar 2	2,698	31,806	-7.03%	12,935	331.33	18,871	2,319	16,256
Titanic	2,172	24,578		0		24,578	640	23,938
M3GAN	2,246	23,510	-12.53%	23,462	142.93	48	0	0
A Man Called Otto	2,227	23,359	-12.22%	23,309	159.61	50	0	0
Missing	1,989	21,375	-11.60%	21,352	153.47	23	0	0
Plane	1,471	13,019	-26.57%	12,993	124.15	26	0	0
The Amazing Maurice	1,500	12,024	-23.55%	11,995	80.09	29	0	11
Consecration	738	9,650		9,650		0	0	0
BTS: Yet To Come	779	6,799	-23.37%	6,799	574.78	0	0	0
Everything Everywhere	570	2,564	-24.68%	2,549	155.38	15	0	0
Women Talking	399	2,544	-51.99%	2,526	105.32	18	0	0
The Whale	455	2,366	-29.73%	2,363	125.31	3	0	0
The Fabelmans	599	2,092	-29.68%	2,089	102.84	3	0	0
Infinity Pool	339	1,796	-82.40%	1,796	81.89	0	0	0

 

USA Showtimes Sample - 2/10 Weekend

OW Showtimes Comps

Magic Mike 3 - 34,530 (1,363 TC)

 - Three Thousand Years of Longing - 32,529 (2,230)

 - King's Man - 29,915 (2,800)

 - House Party - 22,290 (1,323)

(I haven't seen anything with this release strategy since I've been tracking)

Titanic 25 Year - 27,826 (2,172 TC)

 - Father Stu - 27,690 (2,358)

 - King's Daughter - 26,174 (1,987)

 - She Said - 26,575 (1,863)

 

T-1 Week Showtimes Comps

Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quantumania - 136,131 (3,017 TC)

 - No Way Home - 135,877 (3,146)

 - Thor 4 - 132,351 (3,087)

 - Batman - 125,394 (3,125)

 - Top Gun - 132,351 (3,199)

Marlowe (5-Day) - 26,513 (1,673 TC)

 - Father Stu (5-Day) - 29,612 (2,001)

 - Bones and All (5-Day) - 30,681 (1,863)

 

T-2 Week Previews Showtimes Comps

Jesus Revolution EA - 2,723 (1,790)

Jesus Revolution - 2,541 (1,613 TC)

Cocaine Bear - 4,967 (2,029 TC)

 - Knock at the Cabin - 4,231 (1,812)

 - Black Phone - 4,270 (1,705)

 

T-4 Week Previews Showtimes Comps

Scream VI - 5,778 (1,862 TC)

 - Nope - 7,792 (1,976)

 - Scream V - 2,631 (1,258)

 - Knock at the Cabin - 3,948 (1,668)

 

T-14 Week Previews Showtimes

Fast X - 6,429 (1,235 TC)

[BadOlCatSylvester]

The mixed reactions hit the presales pretty hard, as expected. I honestly wouldn't be shocked to see it miss 100M for the 3-day.

[keysersoze123]

presales dont all march at the same level. Thor looked bad and had middling reviews and still had extraordinary final 2 days of presales bigger than even Dr Strange 2. Wakanda on the other hand was ahead of Thor for a while but dropped off the pace in the final few days despite having the strongest reviews among the 3. But Wakanda was skewing friday (its friday PS finished ahead of Dr Strange). Here  Friday is at tad above 2/3rd previews and saturday under 60%. That does not say much for its internal multiplier. Comparing with Thor friday its headed towards 30m true friday. But needs to keep at 80% of Thor friday presales. Let us see how things go in its final week or presales. 

 

Dont forget whatever happens, Disney managed to make an Ant-Man movie as a mega event with a blockbuster presales start !!! So its not going to disappoint irrespective of what happens. 

[Legion Again]

56 minutes ago, katnisscinnaplex said:

Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quantumania - 136,131 (3,017 TC)

 - No Way Home - 135,877 (3,146)

261M 

[filmlover]

Long Range Box Office Forecast & 2023’s Upcoming Calendar
(as of 2/10/23)

Release Date	Title	3-Day (FSS) Opening Low/High Range	Pinpoint % Chg from Last Week	Domestic Total Low/High Range	Pinpoint % Chg from Last Week	Distributor
2/15/2023	Marlowe	$1,000,000 – $3,000,000		$2,500,000 – $8,000,000		Open Road Films
2/17/2023	Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quantumania	$101,000,000 – $125,000,000		$249,000,000 – $331,000,000		Disney / Marvel Studios
2/17/2023	Of An Age (Limited)					Focus Features
2/21/2023	Untitled Crunchyroll Film					Crunchyroll / Sony
2/24/2023	Cocaine Bear	$7,000,000 – $12,000,000		$18,000,000 – $36,000,000		Universal Pictures
2/24/2023	Jesus Revolution	$8,000,000 – $13,000,000		$26,000,000 – $55,000,000		Lionsgate / Kingdom Story Company
2/24/2023	My Happy Ending					Roadside Attractions
2/24/2023	Mummies (Limited)					Warner Bros. Pictures
3/3/2023	Creed III	$25,000,000 – $34,000,000		$71,000,000 – $98,000,000		MGM
3/3/2023	Demon Slayer: To the Swordsmith Village					Crunchyroll / Sony
3/10/2023	65	$8,000,000 – $13,000,000		$26,000,000 – $47,000,000		Sony / Columbia Pictures
3/10/2023	Champions	$4,000,000 – $9,000,000		$14,000,000 – $44,000,000		Focus Features
3/10/2023	Scream VI	$24,000,000 – $33,000,000		$54,000,000 – $80,000,000		Paramount Pictures

 

Long Range Box Office Forecast: 65, Champions, and Scream VI - Boxoffice (boxofficepro.com)

[katnisscinnaplex]

On 2/9/2023 at 8:36 AM, katnisscinnaplex said:

 

Movie	Day	Area	TC	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Ant-Man 3	T-7	Jax	6	94	44	1,518	16,129	9.41%
		Phx	6	95	65	1,603	15,828	10.13%
		Ral	8	103	54	1,633	13,705	11.92%
	Total		20	292	163	4,754	45,662	10.41%
Cocaine Bear	T-14	Jax	6	19	0	23	2,036	1.13%
		Phx	6	15	0	42	1,980	2.12%
		Ral	8	20	3	49	1,569	3.12%
	Total		20	54	3	114	5,585	2.04%
Jesus Revolution	T-14	Jax	5	9	0	25	1,021	2.45%
		Phx	4	5	0	19	622	3.05%
		Ral	7	11	7	65	1,156	5.62%
	Total		16	25	7	109	2,799	3.89%
Jesus Rev (EA)	T-13	Jax	5	11	0	243	1,021	23.80%
		Phx	5	8	2	137	850	16.12%
		Ral	8	12	4	656	1,462	44.87%
	Total		18	31	6	1,036	3,333	31.08%
Magic Mike 3	T-0	Jax	4	25	2	111	3,045	3.65%
		Phx	7	25	21	83	3,061	2.71%
		Ral	7	24	27	187	3,114	6.01%
	Total		18	74	50	381	9,220	4.13%
Marlowe	T-5	Jax	5	16	1	12	1,580	0.76%
		Phx	5	13	-2	5	1,121	0.45%
		Ral	6	13	2	12	1,210	0.99%
	Total		16	42	1	29	3,911	0.74%
Titanic (Re)	T-0	Jax	5	19	8	58	2,608	2.22%
		Phx	6	21	22	93	2,326	4.00%
		Ral	7	16	11	101	1,760	5.74%
	Total		18	56	41	252	6,694	3.76%

 

Magic Mike 3 T-0 comps

 - 80 for Brady - 1.305x (979k)

 - Violent Night - 1.432x (1.58m)

 - Paradise - 1.346x (1.28m)

 - Lost City - .555x (1.39m)

 - The Hitman's Wife's Bodyguard - 2.165x (1.76m)

 - The Menu - 1.391x (1.39m)

 

Thinking around 1.3m for previews.  Hopefully the smaller distribution doesn't hurt too much.  I've seen some events pop up for Valentines Day so expect a pretty big boost then.

 

Titanic T-0 comps

 - Elvis - .219x (699k)

 - House of Gucci - .555x (722k)

 - King Richard - .403x (782k)

 - Avatar 2 - .034x (586k)

 

At least these comps are coming closer together.  Maybe around 700k previews (likely higher with 3D prices)

 

Marlowe T-5 comps

 - Missing - .935x (710k)

 - Ambulance - .707x (495k)

 - Fabelmans - 1.318x (526k)

 - Bones and All - 1.381x (476k)

 - Last Night in Soho - missing

 - Amsterdam - .459x (252k)

 

Ant-Man 3 T-7 comps

 - Black Widow - 1.68x (22.15m)

 - Dr Strange 2 - .397x (14.29m)

 - Thor 4 - .681x (19.74m)

 - Eternals - 2.29x (21.75m)

 - BP2 - .605x (16.93m)

 

Jesus Revolution T-14 comps (excluding EA)

 - Left Behind - 1.346x (822k)

 - I Wanna Dance - 1.473x (1.08m)

 

Jesus Revolution + EA comps

 - Downton Abbey + EA - missed

 - Left Behind - 14.14x (8.63m)

 - I Wanna Dance - 15.47x (11.3m)

 

Cocaine Bear T-14 comps

 - Knock at the Cabin - 1.425x (2.07m)

 - Elvis - .591x (1.89m)

 - Nope - .353x (2.26m)

 

23 hours ago, katnisscinnaplex said:

 

Movie	Day	Area	TC	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Fast X	T-98	Jax	5	51	0	0	7,530	0.00%
		Phx	5	19	1	1	3,083	0.03%
		Ral	6	36	16	16	6,527	0.25%
	Total		16	106	17	17	17,140	0.10%
Scream VI	T-28	Jax	5	22	48	48	2,910	1.65%
		Phx	5	15	96	96	2,792	3.44%
		Ral	8	33	73	73	4,211	1.73%
	Total		18	70	217	217	9,913	2.19%

 

Just setting up my sheets for Fast X.  Cinemark and Regal have pretty full sets up already, but AMC is mostly one or two shows per theater.

 

Scream VI T-28 comps

 - Nope - 1.247x (7.98m)

 - Knock at the Cabin - 6.576x (9.53m)

Movie	Day	Area	TC	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Ant-Man 3	T-6	Jax	6	94	83	1,601	16,129	9.93%
		Phx	6	97	81	1,684	15,908	10.59%
		Ral	8	103	72	1,705	13,705	12.44%
	Total		20	294	236	4,990	45,742	10.91%
Cocaine Bear	T-13	Jax	6	19	2	25	2,036	1.23%
		Phx	6	15	4	46	1,980	2.32%
		Ral	8	20	0	49	1,569	3.12%
	Total		20	54	6	120	5,585	2.15%
Fast X	T-97	Jax	5	53	12	12	7,784	0.15%
		Phx	5	19	5	6	3,083	0.19%
		Ral	7	40	10	26	7,207	0.36%
	Total		17	112	27	44	18,074	0.24%
Jesus Revolution	T-13	Jax	5	9	0	25	1,021	2.45%
		Phx	4	5	0	19	622	3.05%
		Ral	7	11	4	69	1,156	5.97%
	Total		16	25	4	113	2,799	4.04%
Jesus Rev (EA)	T-12	Jax	5	11	0	243	1,021	23.80%
		Phx	5	8	19	156	850	18.35%
		Ral	8	12	-3	653	1,462	44.66%
	Total		18	31	16	1,052	3,333	31.56%
Marlowe	T-4	Jax	5	16	0	12	1,580	0.76%
		Phx	5	13	0	5	1,121	0.45%
		Ral	6	13	0	12	1,210	0.99%
	Total		16	42	0	29	3,911	0.74%
Scream VI	T-27	Jax	5	22	10	58	2,910	1.99%
		Phx	5	15	23	119	2,792	4.26%
		Ral	8	33	16	89	4,211	2.11%
	Total		18	70	49	266	9,913	2.68%

 

Marlowe T-4 comps

 - Missing - .906x (686k)

 - Ambulance - .558x (390k)

 - Fabelmans - 1.526x (609k)

 - Bones and All - 1.04x (357k)

 - Last Night in Soho - .509x (382k)

 - Amsterdam - missing

 

Ant-Man 3 T-6 comps

 - Black Widow - 1.653x (21.825m)

 - Dr Strange 2 - .386x (13.89m)

 - Thor 4 - .666x (19.3m)

 - Eternals - 2.26x (21.46m)

 - BP2 - missed

 

Jesus Revolution T-13 comps (excluding EA)

 - Left Behind - 1.27x (775k)

 - I Wanna Dance - 1.487x (1.085m)

 

Jesus Revolution + EA comps

 - Downton Abbey + EA - missed

 - Left Behind - 13.09x (7.99m)

 - I Wanna Dance - 15.33x (11.19m)

 

Cocaine Bear T-13 comps

 - Knock at the Cabin - 1.5x (2.18m)

 - Elvis - .545x (1.75m)

 - Nope - .343x (2.19m)

 

Scream VI T-27 comps

 - Nope - missed

 - Knock at the Cabin - 7.6x (11.02m)