The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread (December 2021 - July 2023)

[misterpepp]

34 minutes ago, datpepper said:

Shazam 2 tickets will be available on 2/16

 

An additional clarification: these go on sale at around 11:30a est that day, rather than the usual 8/9a.

[katnisscinnaplex]

1 hour ago, Porthos said:

 

 

Shall I be the one to mention that Scream VI also has a special fan event this year? ❤️

 

https://www.fandango.com/scream-vi-3d-fan-event-2023-231043/movie-overview

I rolled it in since it's the same day 😅

[Porthos]

2 hours ago, Porthos said:

 

*does an amazingly FAST and unofficial count locally*

*cross compares it with NOPE's T-29 data [which had been on sale for two weeks at this point]*

 

HMMMMMMMMM.....

 

Watch this space (busy this exact moment) - say 45-60 minutes from now.

 

Missing a couple of very minor things I sometimes post coz I'm doing this at utterly the last minute and I need to error correct them.

 

But, for now....

 

Scream VI Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-29 days and counting

(NOTE: Sample taken 10am following morning)

 

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	61	6742	6955	213	3.06%

 

Total Seats Sold Today*

213

(NOTE: Sample taken 10am following morning)

 

Day 1+ Comps

	%		Sold Day 1	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
Sonic 2	117.03		182	182		0/73	11083/11265	1.62%		3951	5.39%		7.31m
Nope	373.68		57	57		0/87	13834/13891	0.41%		3822	5.57%		23.92m

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of Scream VI's current tickets sold versus that final number.

 

T-29  Comp

%

Sold T-29

Total Sold

Sellouts Shows

Seats Left Total Seats

Perct Sold

Final Sold

% of Final

Comp

Nope

125.29

11

170

0/84

13534/13704

1.24%

3822

5.57%

8.02m

 

EVEN WITH A 14 DAY HEAD START, SCREAM VI IS BEATING NOPE!!!

 

===

 

Okay, some provisos.  I tool this sample from about 10:00am to 10:20am my time, so it'll have some early morning sales from Day 2.  But even if I knock 25 tickets or so off, that still is a great comp for a horror film this far out.

 

The one major note of caution:  This could be incredibly frontloaded for a horror film, which is why I added the Sonic 2 Day 1 comp.  Even against something like Sonic 2, which while a family film still had something of an initial fan rush, it still compares very favorably.

 

Frankly, I don't have anything else remotely suitable.  Even Minions 2 doesn't work as that was amazingly backloaded.

 

Either way, looks like I'm in on this train.  If only to see if it can keep clear of 7m on Thurs.

Edited February 9, 2023 by Porthos
Revised the showtime info slightly - then later adjusted seats sold down by 2 after finding a pair of blacked out seats

[european1992]

Oh wow. Did Halloween 2018 start this well also?

[motionpic05]

46 minutes ago, european1992 said:

Oh wow. Did Halloween 2018 start this well also?

I don't think so, but Halloween's pre sales only started two weeks before release.

It's definetly looking great for it.

 

Are Halloween 2018 or at least Halloween Kills numbers possible?

[Porthos]

7 hours ago, vafrow said:

It looks like Fast X is now available for sale. It's on Cineplexs site in my area. The trailer apparently drops today. 

 

5 hours ago, BadOlCatSylvester said:

Doesn't it drop tomorrow?

 

Yeah, near as I can tell it drops tomorrow:

 

(also, just got done setting up the Fast X sheets)

((SPOILER ALERT:  lol))

(((okay, not entirely fair as I'm not even sure a ticket announcement has been made, never mind the trailer drop)))

((((Still, we'll see what it is at the end of the day))))

Edited February 9, 2023 by Porthos

[upriser7]

6 hours ago, JustLurking said:

Damn, is Jenny Ortega this big a deal now? Wew.

read somewhere that she had around 9M+ followers on instagram before release of Wednesday and in just couple of months, her follower count has grown to 40M. 

[katnisscinnaplex]

9 hours ago, katnisscinnaplex said:

Movie	Day	Area	TC	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Magic Mike 3	T-0	Jax	4	25	2	111	3,045	3.65%
		Phx	7	25	21	83	3,061	2.71%
		Ral	7	24	27	187	3,114	6.01%
	Total		18	74	50	381	9,220	4.13%
Titanic (Re)	T-0	Jax	5	19	8	58	2,608	2.22%
		Phx	6	21	22	93	2,326	4.00%
		Ral	7	16	11	101	1,760	5.74%
	Total		18	56	41	252	6,694	3.76%

 

Magic Mike 3 T-0 comps

 - 80 for Brady - 1.305x (979k)

 - Violent Night - 1.432x (1.58m)

 - Paradise - 1.346x (1.28m)

 - Lost City - .555x (1.39m)

 - The Hitman's Wife's Bodyguard - 2.165x (1.76m)

 - The Menu - 1.391x (1.39m)

 

Thinking around 1.3m for previews.  Hopefully the smaller distribution doesn't hurt too much.  I've seen some events pop up for Valentines Day so expect a pretty big boost then.

 

Titanic T-0 comps

 - Elvis - .219x (699k)

 - House of Gucci - .555x (722k)

 - King Richard - .403x (782k)

 - Avatar 2 - .034x (586k)

 

At least these comps are coming closer together.  Maybe around 700k previews (likely higher with 3D prices)

Movie	Day	Area	TC	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Magic Mike 3	1-Hr	Jax	4	25	36	147	3,045	4.83%
		Phx	7	25	20	103	3,061	3.36%
		Ral	7	24	38	225	3,114	7.23%
	Total		18	74	94	475	9,220	5.15%
Titanic (Re)	1-Hr	Jax	5	19	6	64	2,608	2.45%
		Phx	6	21	-1	92	2,326	3.96%
		Ral	7	16	15	116	1,760	6.59%
	Total		18	56	20	272	6,694	4.06%

 

Not impressed with these same day sales.  

 

Magic Mike 3 T-1 hr comps

 - Violent Night - 1.123x (1.235m)

 - Paradise - 1.072x (1.019m)

 - Lost City - .474x (1.184m)

 - The Menu - 1.082x (1.08m)

All comedies - 1.15m

All R movies - 1.08m

All movies - 1.01m

 

Adjusting down for the rough final day.  Final prediction: 1.2m

 

Titanic T-1 hr comps

 - Elvis - .17x (545k)

 - House of Gucci - .406x (528k)

 - Avatar 2 - .031x (519k)

All dramas - 471k

All movies - 577k

 

Gonna go with 650k with the hope that the ATP kicks in

[Eric Duncan]

16 hours ago, Magic Eric said:

Magic Mike's Last Dance Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-1 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	31	198	5880	3.37%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 35

 

Comp - T-1

0.756x of Death on the Nile (831K)

1.886x of Marry Me (990K)

0.880x of Dog (1.11M)

0.256x of The Lost City (831K)

0.344x of Downton Abbey 2 (654K)

0.269x of Elvis (940K)

0.602x of Where the Crawdads Sing (1.38M)

0.138x of Don't Worry Darling (427K)

1.941x of Ticket to Paradise (2.13M)

Magic Mike's Last Dance Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report Final Count

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	31	268	5880	4.56%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 70

 

Comp - Final

0.700x of Death on the Nile (770K)

1.763x of Marry Me (926K)

0.971x of Dog (1.22M)

0.262x of The Lost City (852K)

0.399x of Downton Abbey 2 (758K)

0.249x of Elvis (873K)

0.466x of Where the Crawdads Sing (1.07M)

0.152x of Don't Worry Darling (473K)

1.258x of Ticket to Paradise (1.38M)

 

Blech. Sub-10M ahoy

[keysersoze123]

Ant-Man 3 MTC2 previews - 104688/654212 1517162.59 4211 shows

 

it sold 3244 tickets in past 24 hours. 

[Issac Newton]

 

 

 

[Issac Newton]

Rank	Film (Distributor)	Weekend Gross	Total Gross	% Change	Week #
1	Magic Mike's Last Dance (Warner Bros.)	$11.5 M	$11.5 M	NEW	1
2	Titanic (25 Year Anniversary) (Paramount)	$10.0 M	$10.0 M	NEW	1
3	80 For Brady (Paramount)	$8.0 M	$27.0 M	-37%	2
4	Avatar: The Way of Water (Disney / 20th Century)	$7.0 M	$647.0 M	-38%	9
5	Puss in Boots: The Last Wish (Universal / DreamWorks Animation)	$6.0 M	$159.0 M	-24%	8
6	Knock at the Cabin (Universal)	$5.4 M	$23.4 M	-62%	2
7	A Man Called Otto (Sony / Columbia)	$2.4 M	$57.2 M	-43%	7
8	M3GAN (Universal)	$2.3 M	$90.8 M	-40%	6
9	Missing (Sony / Screen Gems)	$2.2 M	$26.2 M	-41%	4

 

Paramount's Titanic returns to theatres this weekend for a 25 Year Anniversary re-issue. The James Cameron directed blockbuster event film starring Kate Winslet and Leonardo DiCaprio was initially released back in December of 1997 and last received a major domestic re-issue in April of 2012. Titanic will re-launch in 2,464 locations this weekend, with the film playing on higher-priced 3D screens, as well as on IMAX 3D screens. Thursday preview shows for the film begin at 3PM. This re-issue of Titanic isn't expected to open as strong as the 2012 re-issue, which had a three-day opening weekend of $17.29 million and a five-day start of $25.65 million, but it could perform similarly to the $10.53 million launch of last year's re-issue of Avatar, especially since Titanic will be playing in more locations than Avatar did (1,860 locations) and the re-issue of Avatar didn’t have Thursday preview shows. Look for the re-issue of Titanic to place in a close second this weekend with an estimated $10.0 million.

 

http://www.boxofficereport.com/predictions/predictions20230209.html

[BadOlCatSylvester]

3 hours ago, Magic Eric said:

Magic Mike's Last Dance Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report Final Count

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	31	268	5880	4.56%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 70

 

Comp - Final

0.700x of Death on the Nile (770K)

1.763x of Marry Me (926K)

0.971x of Dog (1.22M)

0.262x of The Lost City (852K)

0.399x of Downton Abbey 2 (758K)

0.249x of Elvis (873K)

0.466x of Where the Crawdads Sing (1.07M)

0.152x of Don't Worry Darling (473K)

1.258x of Ticket to Paradise (1.38M)

 

Blech. Sub-10M ahoy

The Titanic remaster might actually make more this weekend 

[charlie Jatinder]

9 hours ago, M37 said:

Just want to note that at present, the daily sales pattern for this sample is as frontloaded as MoM and NWH at same point, behind BPWF, and ahead of Thor

Sales beyond FRI don't really matter unless they are too good or too bad.

 

AM3 has lower sales relative to Thor & DS2 for SUN in sample you quoted, but it will have way better hold than those 2 on SUN.

[filmlover]

FWIW sales for Magic Mike were weak around here but tomorrow night is looking like a different story with how busy the prime 7-8 shows are. The Girls Friday/Opening Night Out factor is just the MO for this particular franchise I suppose since the first two were also crazy frontloaded (it could $5M tomorrow and still miss $10M thanks to the Super Bowl).

[filmlover]

Also I just noticed that showtimes for Creed and Shazam are popping up around me. The former will start at 7 that Thursday while the latter begins at 3.

[Pinacolada]

Magic mike should at least have a good Valentine's day like Marry Me last year.

 

Fuck WB tho

 

Wait, hold on a second. Variety is reporting that Magic Mike's budget is in the high $40m range??? There's no chance in fuck

Edited February 10, 2023 by Pinacolada

[filmlover]

Apparently, according to Variety, Magic Mike 3 carries a budget somewhere in the high $40M area. Wild that this was originally intended for streaming if true because that's more than double the combined budgets of the first two.

Edited February 10, 2023 by filmlover

[Pinacolada]

5 minutes ago, filmlover said:

Apparently, according to Variety, Magic Mike 3 carries a budget somewhere in the high $40M area. Wild that this was originally intended for streaming if true because that's more than double the combined budgets of the first two.

That number like seriously can't be right, considering the other Magic Mike movies. What, are Channing and Salma getting $15m each? Logan Lucky cost $27m and that had way more names/stars

[filmlover]

11 minutes ago, Pinacolada said:

That number like seriously can't be right, considering the other Magic Mike movies. What, are Channing and Salma getting $15m each? Logan Lucky cost $27m and that had way more names/stars

If I had to guess, considering it was originally a streaming title, it was not a whole lot different from those Netflix deals where it was budgeted based on its perceived box office worth. $45-50M isn't too far off from the $66M total XXL made nearly eight years ago (which, while profitable, was still a big box office decline from the first that everyone figured was the official end of this IP for years).

 

Still pretty crazy though. With a budget in the same range as the earlier movies, it would've likely still managed a profit even with the further diminishing returns this is looking to put up, but now, it appears guaranteed to lose money.

Edited February 10, 2023 by filmlover