The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread (December 2021 - July 2023)

[M37]

3 minutes ago, Menor Reborn said:

Up until Wednesday was fine enough. Thursday was bad, which is also where the disappointment vibe came from (as well as the fact that reviews can be expected to be weak, which won't help the final few days).

 

I will also object to the "coming to grips with reality" phrasing -- getting a lower-end result doesn't mean that a higher result was impossible (in particular, for this week, one might imagine that social reactions buzz being better would have helped sales more).

And I will object to calling where numbers stand a "lower end result" - its been in the same general range for over 2 weeks!

 

Was there potential to go higher, and reasons to suspect it might? Absolutely, never said "impossible", but its not like it tailed off, it just didn't kick up, rather held steady. Its only a lower end result when viewed through the extrapolation process from the OD sales, despite day after day of numbers that didn't show that potential trajectory materializing. Maybe "coming to grips with reality" is too strong of phrasing, but also don't think it should be much of a surprise where numbers stand at present

Fwiw, I think too much stock is put into dissecting the quality of social media reactions as it relates to sales, but rather the burst of them and resulting discussion gets the title trending, reminding people of the impending release and to buy tickets

[Eric Duncan]

2 hours ago, M37 said:

Not sure why the disappointment vibe in recent posts? Numbers are pretty much exactly where they were trending to be

 

I agree. But yesterday's awful numbers confirm that we're going sub-20 in previews, possibly even sub-100. And that's going to be not fun for me.

[katnisscinnaplex]

On 1/28/2023 at 10:22 AM, katnisscinnaplex said:

Santikos Tracking

 

By format

 

Day	Movie	Format	Shows	New*	Sold	True Cap	% Sold	ATP	Gross
T-19	Ant-Man 3	3D	22	18	171	2,359	7.25%	$15.96	$2,729.89
		PLF	35	131	2,081	7,749	26.86%	$16.54	$34,421.94
		Standard	77	113	966	10,075	9.59%	$12.55	$12,121.09
	Total		134	262	3,218	20,183	15.94%	$15.31	$49,272.92

 

By matinee

 

Day	Movie	Mat	Shows	New*	Sold	True Cap	% Sold	ATP	Gross
T-19	Ant-Man 3	N	99	216	2,906	14,807	19.63%	$15.70	$45,615.70
		Y	35	46	312	5,376	5.80%	$11.72	$3,657.22
	Total		134	262	3,218	20,183	15.94%	$15.31	$49,272.92

*New sales since Wednesday

 

T-19 comps

 - DS2 - missed

 - Thor 4 - .711x (20.61m)

 - JW3 - missed

Santikos Tracking

 

By format

 

Day	Movie	Format	Shows	New*	Sold	True Cap	% Sold	ATP	Gross
T-6	Ant-Man 3	3D	22	90	261	2,359	11.06%	$15.71	$4,099.91
		PLF	38	660	2,741	8,430	32.51%	$16.40	$44,963.46
		Standard	79	634	1,600	10,065	15.90%	$12.50	$19,996.19
	Total		139	1,384	4,602	20,854	22.07%	$15.01	$69,059.56

 

By matinee

 

Day	Movie	Mat	Shows	New*	Sold	True Cap	% Sold	ATP	Gross
T-6	Ant-Man 3	N	104	1,175	4,081	15,396	26.51%	$15.40	$62,855.48
		Y	35	209	521	5,458	9.55%	$11.91	$6,204.08
	Total		139	1,384	4,602	20,854	22.07%	$15.01	$69,059.56

*All new sales since 1/28 (13 days)

 

T-6 comps

 - DS2 - missed

 - Thor 4 - .697x (20.22m)

 - Top Gun 2 + EA - 1.327x (25.6m)

 - Avatar 2 - 1.544x (26.25m)

 

Gotta wait until Monday for the full slate of CBM comps unfortunately.  I'm in the <20m camp for now though.  

[ThomasNicole]

BOP tracking for Scream seems abnormaly low considering the early presales 

 

24M would require some extreme frontloadness 

[filmlover]

3 minutes ago, ThomasNicole said:

BOP tracking for Scream seems abnormaly low considering the early presales 

 

24M would require some extreme frontloadness 

They're simply covering all the bases this far out as per usual. 

[M37]

31 minutes ago, Magic Eric said:

I agree. But yesterday's awful numbers confirm that we're going sub-20 in previews, possibly even sub-100. And that's going to be not fun for me.

But - and perhaps because I’ve been at this ~$20M range for a while rather than dropping down to it - I don’t think that’s necessarily true? 

 

To me, it wasn’t so much a weak Thursday as coming down from the bumped Mon/Tue/Wed reactions numbers, which were later in the sales runs as other titles. The overall growth from T-14 to T-7 is right in line with comps, not shallowing them.
Also won’t be surprised if combo of Super Bowl and Valentine’s Day screws with “normal” patterns over this final week, not on Thor/July 4th levels, but also maybe not all that far off, with weaker numbers through Tuesday (perhaps a big Mon post SB ad) before making up ground on Wed T-1 and especially Thur T-0

 

Right now, I’d still pencil in a $20M Thursday (maybe Disney rounded up from $19.5M) as my pinpoint estimate, not a confirmed number in the teens nor dangerously flirting with dropping below $100M

[Menor the Destroyer]

4 minutes ago, M37 said:

But - and perhaps because I’ve been at this ~$20M range for a while rather than dropping down to it - I don’t think that’s necessarily true? 

 

To me, it wasn’t so much a weak Thursday as coming down from the bumped Mon/Tue/Wed reactions numbers, which were later in the sales runs as other titles. The overall growth from T-14 to T-7 is right in line with comps, not shallowing them.
Also won’t be surprised if combo of Super Bowl and Valentine’s Day screws with “normal” patterns over this final week, not on Thor/July 4th levels, but also maybe not all that far off, with weaker numbers through Tuesday (perhaps a big Mon post SB ad) before making up ground on Wed T-1 and especially Thur T-0

 

Right now, I’d still pencil in a $20M Thursday (maybe Disney rounded up from $19.5M) as my pinpoint estimate, not a confirmed number in the teens nor dangerously flirting with dropping below $100M

Yeah I'm in agreement with this. I could see it going above or below from here, but I think if people look at the pace relative to comps, there's no reason to think it goes vastly below 20 or that it's confirmed to miss. Sacto, for example, would require only a small bump in relative pace to get back on pace for 20. That said, if reviews are really bad, that won't help.

[WrathOfHan]

Really think Quantumania might be looking at an opening barely above Ant-Man and the Wasp. I'm surprised weekend sales haven't gained any traction at all.

[Paul Verhoeven]

How is the presale of Cocaine Bear?

[Eric Duncan]

Quorum Updates

Jesus Revolution T-15: 18.02% Awareness, 4.86 Interest

Inside T-36: 19.91%, 5.6

Mafia Mamma T-64: 15.51%, 5.09

Paint T-78: 16.09%, 4.89

Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3 T-85: 54.19%, 6.4

Asteroid City T-134: 8.48%, 4.78

Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Mutant Mayhem T-176: 30%, 5.72

 

Magic Mike's Last Dance T-1: 47.36% Awareness, 5.35 Interest

Final Awareness: 90% chance of 10M, 57% chance of 20M

Final Interest: 43% chance of 10M, 13% chance of 20M

 

Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quantumania T-8: 48.83% Awareness, 6.18 Interest

Final Awareness: 9% chance of 70M

Final Interest: 50% chance of 60M, 44% chance of 70M, 39% chance of 100M

DC/MCU Awareness: 100% chance of 70M

DC/MCU Interest: 100% chance of 60M

 

Renfield T-64: 22.53% Awareness, 5.33 Interest
T-60 Awareness: 59% chance of 10M, 29% chance of 20M

T-60 Interest: 73% chance of 10M, 43% chance of 20M

Horror Awareness: 71% chance of 10M, 57% chance of 20M

Horror Interest: 67% chance of 10M, 55% chance of 20M

[Tinalera]

Re Fast X, Im not going to start till at least next week, and even then, might be just be twice a month (doing a west to east) from Feb to April. Just looking at hint of sales now, and there's almost nothing. 

[Eric Duncan]

So uh...are we getting previews this weekend or not?

[Legion Again]

10 minutes ago, Magic Eric said:

So uh...are we getting previews this weekend or not?

Not

[BoxOfficeFangrl]

16 minutes ago, Magic Eric said:

So uh...are we getting previews this weekend or not?

Seems unlikely, WB is pulling a Tenet with Magic Mike...

 

 

Quote

In a move that’s unusual but not unprecedented for the studio, Warner Bros. has been shielding pre-release tracking estimates on the research platform Rentrak, which collects and distributes daily, down-to-the-minute ticket sales across the entertainment industry. The decision, which is ruffling some feathers among its rivals, is presumably an attempt to tightly control the film’s box office coverage. Warner Bros. was similarly opaque in the lead-up to Christopher Nolan’s “Tenet,” which was not the first but certainly the most expensive film to debut in the wake of COVID-related theater closures. Warner Bros. didn’t respond to Variety’s request for comment.
 

 

Edited February 10, 2023 by BoxOfficeFangrl

[BadOlCatSylvester]

57 minutes ago, WrathOfHan said:

Really think Quantumania might be looking at an opening barely above Ant-Man and the Wasp. I'm surprised weekend sales haven't gained any traction at all.

The social media reactions utterly slaughtered it. Word of mouth spreads fast. And unfortunately it's looking like it'll be another Rotten, Marvel's second in a time span of little over a year. Crazy.

[charlie Jatinder]

2 hours ago, M37 said:

And I will object to calling where numbers stand a "lower end result" - its been in the same general range for over 2 weeks!

 

Was there potential to go higher, and reasons to suspect it might? Absolutely, never said "impossible", but its not like it tailed off, it just didn't kick up, rather held steady. Its only a lower end result when viewed through the extrapolation process from the OD sales, despite day after day of numbers that didn't show that potential trajectory materializing. Maybe "coming to grips with reality" is too strong of phrasing, but also don't think it should be much of a surprise where numbers stand at present

Fwiw, I think too much stock is put into dissecting the quality of social media reactions as it relates to sales, but rather the burst of them and resulting discussion gets the title trending, reminding people of the impending release and to buy tickets

this analysis would hold some weight if it didn't include MOM. you can't possibly have one of the three comps to be a film like MOM which was heading for $40M previews for something heading for $20M+.

[Tinalera]

12 minutes ago, BadOlCatSylvester said:

The social media reactions utterly slaughtered it. Word of mouth spreads fast. And unfortunately it's looking like it'll be another Rotten, Marvel's second in a time span of little over a year. Crazy.

That would be a bit crazy. Wonder if this relates to Disney recently stating they're going to be spreading out the movies a bit more going forward, wonder if they are seeing a trend where 3 movies a year plus all the TV shows that are on and coming up, if some people are slowing down a bit with it.

[Eric Duncan]

@datpepper did Creed III's tickets get bumped back? I thought it was dropping today, and we're already past 1:30 EST

[YM!]

1 hour ago, WrathOfHan said:

Really think Quantumania might be looking at an opening barely above Ant-Man and the Wasp. I'm surprised weekend sales haven't gained any traction at all.

I still am confident in 100m OW but I got a club for you if you're bold enough:

 

 

[misterpepp]

1 hour ago, Magic Eric said:

@datpepper did Creed III's tickets get bumped back? I thought it was dropping today, and we're already past 1:30 EST

Annoyingly, it looks like they only put the Early Access shows on sale. I’ll try to figure out what’s going on.