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The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread (December 2021 - July 2023)

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Posted by Shawn Robbins,

PSA:   As a heads up to everyone, we'll be starting a new thread here very soon. For those who are newer to the forum, we typically have to split threads once they reach 1,000+ pages and are still highly active. In the past, such topics have created database slowdown issues that affect the entire forum.   Rest assured, this thread will be archived when it is locked and a link to the new one will be posted to help you find it easily (it will also be pinned to the top of the box o
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Posted by XXRDJisDoctorDoom,

Yea we're gonna drop all this non tracking stuff. That expressly means you, @excel1. Next post from you that isn't tracking related is a thread ban.    Anyone else continues, it's points. 

We're all tired of the non-tracking related thread derailments. This is your fair warning.

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filmlover Cinematic Universe

filmlover

Posted
Posted

Also here's the updated listing for what to expect in Dolby Cinema and IMAX through the summer:

 

Dolby Cinema

 

3/17: Shazam! Fury of the Gods

3/24: John Wick: Chapter 4

3/31: Dungeons & Dragons: Honor Among Thieves

4/5: The Super Mario Bros. Movie

4/21: Guy Ritchie's The Covenant

5/5: Guardians of the Galaxy Volume 3

5/19: Fast X

5/26: The Little Mermaid

6/2: Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse

6/9: Transformers: Rise of the Beasts

6/16: The Flash, Elemental

6/30: Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny

7/14: Mission: Impossible - Dead Reckoning Part One

7/21: Oppenheimer, Barbie

7/28: Haunted Mansion

8/4: The Meg 2, Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Mutant Mayhem

8/11: Gran Turismo

 

IMAX

3/17: Shazam! Fury of the Gods

3/24: John Wick: Chapter 4

3/31: Dungeons & Dragons: Honor Among Thieves

4/5: The Super Mario Bros. Movie

4/21: Beau Is Afraid (apparently?)

5/5: Guardians of the Galaxy Volume 3

5/19: Fast X

5/26: The Little Mermaid

6/2: Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse

6/9: Transformers: Rise of the Beasts

6/16: The Flash

6/30: Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny

7/14: Mission: Impossible - Dead Reckoning Part One

7/21: Oppenheimer

8/11: Gran Turismo

8/18: Blue Beetle

9/1: The Equalizer 3

 

New Movies, Theaters Near You, Movie Tickets, Showtimes, Movie Trailers, Movies in Theaters (amctheatres.com)

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TwoMisfits Global Phenomenon

TwoMisfits

Posted
Posted
21 minutes ago, filmlover said:

That many early showings over 12 days before release must mean tracking is awful. Usually a sign of desperation.

 

It's also a way to get in extra PLF showings, since Mario will be killing them only 5 days into "official" release, so 2 extra Saturday PLF days is probably a good thing...

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katnisscinnaplex Box Office Gold

katnisscinnaplex

Posted
Posted (edited)
On 3/9/2023 at 8:38 AM, katnisscinnaplex said:

 

Movie Day Area TC Shows New Sold Seats % Sold
John Wick 4 T-14 Jax 6 42 30 226 7,238 3.12%
    Phx 6 28 17 257 5,746 4.47%
    Ral 8 38 20 238 5,296 4.49%
  Total   20 108 67 721 18,280 3.94%
Shazam 2 T-7 Jax 5 57 4 154 9,846 1.56%
    Phx 6 29 5 161 6,134 2.62%
    Ral 8 54 0 181 7,817 2.32%
  Total   19 140 9 496 23,797 2.08%

 

Shazam 2 T-7 comps

 - Sonic 2 - .902x (4.49m)

 - Fantastic Beasts 3 - .418x (2.51m)

 - No Time to Die - .723x (3.76m)

 - F9 - .514x (3.65m)

 - Ghostbusters - .86x (3.57m)

 - Shang-Chi - .424x (3.73m)

 - Venom 2 - .578x (6.71m)

 - Black Adam - missed

 

Still waiting for sales to start ramping up.  The free fall is pretty disheartening. 

 

John Wick 4 T-14 comps

 - Suicide Squad - 2.92x (11.97m)

 - F9 - 1.265x (8.98m)

 - No Time to Die - 1.873x (9.74m)

 - Top Gun 2 - .42x (6.18m)

 - Jurassic 3 - .363x (6.43m)

Movie Day Area TC Shows New Sold Seats % Sold
John Wick 4 T-13 Jax 6 42 15 241 7,238 3.33%
    Phx 6 28 27 284 5,746 4.94%
    Ral 8 37 32 270 5,199 5.19%
  Total   20 107 74 795 18,183 4.37%
Shazam 2 T-6 Jax 5 57 10 164 9,846 1.67%
    Phx 6 29 11 172 6,134 2.80%
    Ral 8 54 1 182 7,817 2.33%
  Total   19 140 22 518 23,797 2.18%
Super Mario T-26 Jax 5 113 105 105 17,638 0.60%
    Phx 6 48 127 127 8,167 1.56%
    Ral 8 97 171 171 13,569 1.26%
  Total   19 258 403 403 39,374 1.02%

 

Shazam 2 T-6 comps

 - Sonic 2 - .858x (4.27m)

 - Fantastic Beasts 3 - .396x (2.38m)

 - No Time to Die - missed

 - F9 - .497x (3.53m)

 - Ghostbusters - missed

 - Shang-Chi - .399x (3.51m)

 - Venom 2 - .54x (6.26m)

 - Black Adam - .432x (3.29m)

 - Suicide Squad - 1.22x (5m)

 

John Wick 4 T-13 comps

 - Suicide Squad - 2.98x (12.21m)

 - F9 - 1.242x (8.82m)

 - No Time to Die - 1.94x (10.08m)

 - Top Gun 2 - .428x (6.29m)

 - Jurassic 3 - .374x (6.62m)

 

Super Mario T-26 comps

 - DBZ - 1.975x (8.5m)

 - Black Widow - .53x (6.99m)

 - Scream VI - 1.308x (7.56m)

 

(Just as a starting point, not bad!)

 

Super Mario (17hrs) Day 1 comps

 - Eternals (24hrs) - .528x (5.02m)

 - Black Widow (24hrs) - .75x (9.91m)

 - F9 (24hrs) - 1.482x (10.52m)

 - Shang-Chi - .695x (6.12m)

 - JW3 (23hrs) - .405x (7.3m)

 - Black Adam (23hrs) - 1.313x (9.98m)

 - Shazam 2 (22hrs) - 2.96x

 - Sonic 2 (24hrs) - 2.167x (13.54m)

Edited by katnisscinnaplex
Add Sonic day 1 comp
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Flamengo81 Sleeper Hit

Flamengo81

Posted
Posted
8 hours ago, OceanBlvd said:

I’ve never seen or heard or read about an adult hardcore Mario fan in my life lol (I’m sure there are but it’s not prevalent). There are definitely adult Nintendo fans tho but that doesn’t mean they stan Mario hardcore lol. It’s that not type of franchise. It’s super causal. Party filler type of games. It’s very popular and everyone knows who Mario is, but it is not a thirst fan fare type of series. Never have been and never will be because Nintendo is not interested in that for Mario. They have Zelda. It’s more acclaimed and far more focused. Zelda as a franchise has a way more hardcore fandom than Mario in part due to that. There’s no weird off beat party filler Zelda games or sports games. A Zelda movie would definitely have a huge fan rush.

 

Btw, Sonic has always been marketed as the edgier more adult mascot. 

 

 

What are you talking about? Zelda is not more acclaimed than Mario by any means. You just have to look at sales which is the biggest indicator of general public acclaim. Also even metacritic and other scores don't agree with your statement, as Mario has several games among the best reviewed of all time. Zelda is a lot more niche than Mario, so that could be the reason for the perception that it has a more hardcore fandom, but it would not have a bigger fan rush for a wide release movie, I guarantee you that.

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TheFlatLannister Box Office Gold

TheFlatLannister

Posted
Posted
11 hours ago, keysersoze123 said:

Mario MTC1 Wednesday - 16588/694022 293093.00 3410 shows

 

I take my earlier comment back. Its definitely not bad at all. I guess the trailer release did amp up the sales. I dont have MTC2 data as well but release is already uber wide (4894 shows) 

 

Just checked Disney Springs AMC, and

Spoiler

it's selling like an MCU blockbuster 

 

I will have Orlando numbers compiled later today 

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Eric Prime Global Phenomenon

Eric Prime

Posted
Posted

Quorum Updates

Moving On T-8: 21% Awareness, 5.46 Interest

A Good Person T-22: 19.54%, 5.27

The Super Mario Bros. Movie T-27: 52.78%, 5.86

Paint T-29: 17.51%, 5.04

Fast X T-71: 50.21%, 6.25

 

65 T-1: 34.19% Awareness, 5.98 Interest

Final Awareness: 39% chance of 10M

Final Interest: 70% chance of 10M

Original - High Awareness: 20% chance of 10M

Original - Low Interest: 50% chance of 10M

 

Champions T-1: 31.48% Awareness, 5.52 Interest

Final Awareness: 39% chance of 10M

Final Interest: 70% chance of 10M

Original - Low Awareness: 67% chance of 5M, 33% chance of 10M

Original - Low Interest: 86% chance of 5M, 57% chance of 10M

 

Scream VI T-1: 64.15% Awareness, 6.21 Interest

Final Awareness: 100% chance of 50M, 89% chance of 70M

Final Interest: 67% chance of 40M, 47% chance of 50M, 33% chance of 60M, 27% chance of 70M

Horror Awareness: 100% chance of 30M

Horror Interest: 75% chance of 30M, 50% chance of 40M

 

Shazam! Fury of the Gods T-8: 52.92% Awareness, 5.53 Interest

Final Awareness: 92% chance of 20M, 77% chance of 30M, 54% chance of 40M, 38% chance of 50M, 23% chance of 60M

Final Interest: 48% chance of 20M, 30% chance of 30M, 22% chance of 40M, 15% chance of 50M

DC/MCU Awareness: 100% chance of 60M

DC/MCU Interest: 100% chance of 70M

 

The Pope's Exorcist T-36: 22.4% Awareness, 5.03 Interest

T-30 Awareness: 61% chance of 10M, 23% chance of 20M

T-30 Interest: 54% chance of 10M, 30% chance of 20M

Horror Awareness: 78% chance of 10M, 44% chance of 20M

Horror Interest: 50% chance of 20M

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katnisscinnaplex Box Office Gold

katnisscinnaplex

Posted
Posted
2 hours ago, katnisscinnaplex said:

Movie Day Area TC Shows New Sold Seats % Sold
John Wick 4 T-13 Jax 6 42 15 241 7,238 3.33%
    Phx 6 28 27 284 5,746 4.94%
    Ral 8 37 32 270 5,199 5.19%
  Total   20 107 74 795 18,183 4.37%
Shazam 2 T-6 Jax 5 57 10 164 9,846 1.67%
    Phx 6 29 11 172 6,134 2.80%
    Ral 8 54 1 182 7,817 2.33%
  Total   19 140 22 518 23,797 2.18%
Super Mario T-26 Jax 5 113 105 105 17,638 0.60%
    Phx 6 48 127 127 8,167 1.56%
    Ral 8 97 171 171 13,569 1.26%
  Total   19 258 403 403 39,374 1.02%

 

Shazam 2 T-6 comps

 - Sonic 2 - .858x (4.27m)

 - Fantastic Beasts 3 - .396x (2.38m)

 - No Time to Die - missed

 - F9 - .497x (3.53m)

 - Ghostbusters - missed

 - Shang-Chi - .399x (3.51m)

 - Venom 2 - .54x (6.26m)

 - Black Adam - .432x (3.29m)

 - Suicide Squad - 1.22x (5m)

 

John Wick 4 T-13 comps

 - Suicide Squad - 2.98x (12.21m)

 - F9 - 1.242x (8.82m)

 - No Time to Die - 1.94x (10.08m)

 - Top Gun 2 - .428x (6.29m)

 - Jurassic 3 - .374x (6.62m)

 

Super Mario T-26 comps

 - DBZ - 1.975x (8.5m)

 - Black Widow - .53x (6.99m)

 - Scream VI - 1.308x (7.56m)

 

(Just as a starting point, not bad!)

 

Super Mario (17hrs) Day 1 comps

 - Eternals (24hrs) - .528x (5.02m)

 - Black Widow (24hrs) - .75x (9.91m)

 - F9 (24hrs) - 1.482x (10.52m)

 - Shang-Chi - .695x (6.12m)

 - JW3 (23hrs) - .405x (7.3m)

 - Black Adam (23hrs) - 1.313x (9.98m)

 - Shazam 2 (22hrs) - 2.96x

 - Sonic 2 (24hrs) - 2.167x (13.54m)

Movie Day Area TC Shows New Sold Seats % Sold
D&D (3-26 EA) T-16 Jax 4 4 0 0 450 0.00%
    Phx 1 1 0 0 123 0.00%
    Ral 2 2 0 0 387 0.00%
  Total   7 7 0 0 960 0.00%
D&D (3-29 EA) T-19 Jax 5 5 0 0 1,456 0.00%
    Phx 1 1 0 0 410 0.00%
    Ral 1 1 0 0 261 0.00%
  Total   7 7 0 0 2,127 0.00%
D&D T-20 Jax 5 43 24 24 6,624 0.36%
    Phx 6 24 20 20 4,821 0.41%
    Ral 7 28 14 14 4,346 0.32%
  Total   18 95 58 58 15,791 0.37%

 

Not sure when these went on sale, but since I noticed I went ahead and added them to the sheet.  No EA sales yet - looked like most tickets sold are for PLF so far (no surprise).

 

D&D T-20 comps

 - F9 - .171x (1.21m)

 - Sonic 2 - .264x (1.31m)

 - Shazam 2 - .195x

 

(quickly does math to find that Shazam 2 will make 6.46m)

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JustLurking Box Office Gold

JustLurking

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, Eric the Velocipastor said:

Quorum Updates

Moving On T-8: 21% Awareness, 5.46 Interest

A Good Person T-22: 19.54%, 5.27

The Super Mario Bros. Movie T-27: 52.78%, 5.86

Paint T-29: 17.51%, 5.04

Fast X T-71: 50.21%, 6.25

 

65 T-1: 34.19% Awareness, 5.98 Interest

Final Awareness: 39% chance of 10M

Final Interest: 70% chance of 10M

Original - High Awareness: 20% chance of 10M

Original - Low Interest: 50% chance of 10M

 

Champions T-1: 31.48% Awareness, 5.52 Interest

Final Awareness: 39% chance of 10M

Final Interest: 70% chance of 10M

Original - Low Awareness: 67% chance of 5M, 33% chance of 10M

Original - Low Interest: 86% chance of 5M, 57% chance of 10M

 

Scream VI T-1: 64.15% Awareness, 6.21 Interest

Final Awareness: 100% chance of 50M, 89% chance of 70M

Final Interest: 67% chance of 40M, 47% chance of 50M, 33% chance of 60M, 27% chance of 70M

Horror Awareness: 100% chance of 30M

Horror Interest: 75% chance of 30M, 50% chance of 40M

 

Shazam! Fury of the Gods T-8: 52.92% Awareness, 5.53 Interest

Final Awareness: 92% chance of 20M, 77% chance of 30M, 54% chance of 40M, 38% chance of 50M, 23% chance of 60M

Final Interest: 48% chance of 20M, 30% chance of 30M, 22% chance of 40M, 15% chance of 50M

DC/MCU Awareness: 100% chance of 60M

DC/MCU Interest: 100% chance of 70M

 

The Pope's Exorcist T-36: 22.4% Awareness, 5.03 Interest

T-30 Awareness: 61% chance of 10M, 23% chance of 20M

T-30 Interest: 54% chance of 10M, 30% chance of 20M

Horror Awareness: 78% chance of 10M, 44% chance of 20M

Horror Interest: 50% chance of 20M

the one place where shazam is performing

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Porthos Global Phenomenon

Porthos

Posted
Posted

So I had some time to kill and decided to check out Super Mario Bros. locally.

 

...

 

Okay, before I say anything, I want to stress 1] this is ALL DAY release, which means both Early Bird and Matinee discounts and 2] schools are out locally that week, which means that one of the target audiences (kids) will be more prevelent.

 

...

 

Okay, that out of the way, SMB has already sold 823 tickets locally, in less than 24 hours of sales.

 

For comparison:

 

This is 64% more sales than Shazam 2.... as of last night (823 vs 500)

About the same amount of sales that Sonic 2 had as of T-8 (17 days of pre-sales) [823 vs 815]

About the same amount of sales that Minions 2 had as of T-7 (18 days of pre-sales) [823 vs 828]

About the same amount of sales that Lightyear had as of T-6 (4 days of pre-sales) [823 vs 868]

About the same amount of sales that Black Adamhad as of T-15 (7 days of pre-sales) [823 vs 853]

 

Now, again, comparing a preview night (vast majority of sales at full price) versus an all day release is apples to oranges as there will be faaaaaaaaaar more discounted tickets sold.  And, again again, I am 100% sure that schools being out locally is causing more seats to be sold than in areas where schools aren't out.

 

And, finally, Opening Day >> Preview Night just on pure expectations, I would think even with previews getting more and more ridiculius when it comes to start time.

 

All that being said:  What a start for Super Mario Bros. locally. 

 

No clue what its OD is gonna be and no I ***AIN'T*** tracking it going forward.  But I was curious how it was doing so far and I have to think: Pretty well. 👍

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katnisscinnaplex Box Office Gold

katnisscinnaplex

Posted
Posted
30 minutes ago, Porthos said:

For comparison:

 

This is 64% more sales than Shazam 2.... as of last night (823 vs 500)

About the same amount of sales that Sonic 2 had as of T-8 (17 days of pre-sales) [823 vs 815]

About the same amount of sales that Minions 2 had as of T-7 (18 days of pre-sales) [823 vs 828]

About the same amount of sales that Lightyear had as of T-6 (4 days of pre-sales) [823 vs 868]

About the same amount of sales that Black Adamhad as of T-15 (7 days of pre-sales) [823 vs 853]

My run this morning for comparison was:

 

Near Shazam 2 at T-12 (437 to 427)

Near Sonic 2 at T-14 (437 to 427)

Near Minions 2 at T-7 (437 to 445)

Near Lightyear at T-7 (437 to 418)

Near Black Adam at T-17 (437 to 467)

 

(My post had 403 but that was before including a few midnight shows I had missed)

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Mulder Global Phenomenon

Mulder

Posted
Posted
7 hours ago, stripe said:

 

This means that Paramount is really confident with D&D and just needs WOM to spread. EA should help with that

With the kinds of people who go to EA, this'll backfire tremendously on them.

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TheFlatLannister Box Office Gold

TheFlatLannister

Posted
Posted

Ok, here we go

 

GREATER ORLANDO REGION 

 

THE SUPER MARIO BROS.

 

FIRST 24 HOURS OF PRESALES FOR WEDNESDAY PREMIERE 

 

 

SHOWINGS

TOTAL SEATS SOLD

TOTAL SEATS

PERCENT SOLD

139

1424

26970

5.3%

 

 

 

3D SHOWINGS

TOTAL SEATS SOLD

TOTAL SEATS

PERCENT SOLD

37

198

4183

4.7%

 

Mario has already sold almost 10x more tickets than Shazam has, in only the first 24 hours.

 

I could easily see a $100M+ OWknd here 

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