The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread (December 2021 - July 2023)

[Porthos]

On 4/13/2023 at 2:17 AM, Porthos said:

 

Guardians of the Galaxy: Volume 3 Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report:

T-22 days and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	206	26655	29669	3014	10.16%

 

Total Seats Sold Today

105

 

T-22 Comps:

	%		Sold T-22	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
MoM	33.69		168	8947		0/329	31963/40910	21.87%		21117	14.27%		12.13m
L&T	59.57		336	5060		0/228	26540/31600	16.01%		16962	17.77%		17.27m
BP2	50.67		138	5948		1/294	31071/37019	16.07%		16800	17.94%		14.19m
AM3	76.03		119	3964		0/235	28592/32556	12.18%		10475	28.77%		13.31m

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of GOTG3's current tickets sold versus that final number.

 

Regal:      519/11075  [4.69% sold]
Matinee:     85/3555  [2.39% | 2.82% of all tickets sold]
3D:            322/5522  [5.83% | 10.68% of all tickets sold]

 

Guardians of the Galaxy: Volume 3 Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report:

T-21 days and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	206	26559	29666	3107	10.47%

 

Total Seats Sold Today

93

 

T-21 Comps:

	%		Sold T-21	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
MoM	34.02		187	9134		0/329	31774/40908	22.33%		21117	14.71%		12.25m
L&T	58.72		231	5291		0/228	26309/31600	16.74%		16962	18.32%		17.03m
BP2	50.95		150	6098		1/294	30924/37022	16.47%		16800	18.49%		14.27m
AM3	76.38		104	4068		0/235	28488/32556	12.50%		10475	29.66%		13.37m

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of GOTG3's current tickets sold versus that final number.

 

Regal:      558/11075  [5.04% sold]
Matinee:     92/3555  [2.59% | 2.96% of all tickets sold]
3D:            334/5522  [6.05% | 10.75% of all tickets sold]

[charlie Jatinder]

4 minutes ago, Porthos said:

BREAKDOWN

Doing weekly updates should mean doing weekly track as well.

 

What’s the point of manually tracking 182 shows daily? Unless you have some magical way in which it only takes 15 mins.

[Porthos]

27 minutes ago, charlie Jatinder said:

Doing weekly updates should mean doing weekly track as well.

 

What’s the point of manually tracking 182 shows daily? Unless you have some magical way in which it only takes 15 mins.

 

22 min, aksually. 

[charlie Jatinder]

1 minute ago, Porthos said:

 

22 min, aksually. 

Damn. That’s really really fast. Faster than what automating will be.

[efialtes76]

10 hours ago, crazydom said:

I still don't understand using Renfield as your title. It conveys basically nothing. Whoever decided not to put Dracula in the title somewhere should be fired.

Rendfield:Dracula's slave.🤣

 

[filmlover]

Long Range Box Office Forecast & 2023’s Upcoming Calendar
(as of 4/14/23)

Release Date	Title	3-Day (FSS) Opening Low/High Range	Pinpoint % Chg from Last Week	Domestic Total Low/High Range	Pinpoint % Chg from Last Week	Distributor
4/21/2023	Beau Is Afraid (Wide)					A24
4/21/2023	Chevalier					Disney / Searchlight Pictures
4/21/2023	The Covenant	$4,000,000 – $8,000,000		$11,000,000 – $27,000,000		MGM & STX Films
4/21/2023	Evil Dead Rise	$11,000,000 – $16,000,000	-52%	$22,000,000 – $36,000,000	-52%	Warner Bros. Pictures
4/28/2023	Are You There God? It’s Me, Margaret.	$18,000,000 – $23,000,000		$54,000,000 – $86,000,000		Lionsgate
4/28/2023	Big George Foreman: The Miraculous Story of the Once and Future Heavyweight Champion of the World	$9,000,000 – $14,000,000		$28,000,000 – $50,000,000		Sony / AFFIRM Films
4/28/2023	Polite Society					Focus Features
4/28/2023	Sisu					Lionsgate
5/5/2023	Guardians of the Galaxy: Vol. 3	$120,000,000 – $155,000,000		$288,000,000 – $403,000,000		Disney / Marvel Studios
5/5/2023	Love Again	$5,000,000 – $10,000,000		$13,000,000 – $32,000,000		Sony / Screen Gems
5/6/2023	UFC 288: Sterling vs. Cejudo (Moderate)					Iconic Events Releasing
5/12/2023	Book Club 2 – The Next Chapter	$10,000,000 – $15,000,000		$30,000,000 – $49,000,000		Focus Features
5/12/2023	Hypnotic					Ketchup Entertainment
5/12/2023	Knights of the Zodiac	$5,000,000 – $10,000,000		$11,000,000 – $25,000,000		Sony Pictures

 

Long Range Box Office Forecast: BOOK CLUB 2, KNIGHTS OF THE ZODIAC, and LOVE AGAIN, Plus An EVIL DEAD RISE Update - Boxoffice (boxofficepro.com)

Edited April 14, 2023 by filmlover

[filmlover]

Pretty big drop in tracking for Evil Dead but honestly buzz does seem on the quiet side. The 2013 movie arrived with more fanfare.

 

Definitely think Love Again is hitting the low end of those expectations. Don't think it's even making $10M total.

Edited April 14, 2023 by filmlover

[CJohn]

What the hell happened with Evil Dead Rise? I am still expecting 20M+ OW.

[Krissykins]

2 minutes ago, CJohn said:

What the hell happened with Evil Dead Rise? I am still expecting 20M+ OW.

In the article it says from presales it’s apparent that WB aren’t marketing it enough. 
 

Makes sense, as aside from the trailer before a few films, I haven’t seen a thing for it. I’m not even getting social media or targeted ads. 

[filmlover]

8 minutes ago, CJohn said:

What the hell happened with Evil Dead Rise? I am still expecting 20M+ OW.

It's the latest former HBO Max title that's getting a theatrical release and therefore they don't have that much at stake with it.

 

Though this is one horror IP that likely has a ceiling to it (the $54M the '13 movie made with a much more aggressive marketing campaign) anyway.

[JayPrimetown]

It's clear WB is cutting back theatrical marketing across the board. Have to believe that hurts their box office in take.

 

Maybe the Zas turns on marketing once it gets to films he greenlit. 

 

As an aside, eye test between Evil Dead and Renfield. It's night and day how much more the Universal film has been marketed.

[filmlover]

I'm sure WB's marketing will really ramp up for the summer movies that they clearly have a lot more faith in (The Flash, Barbie). Everything they've put out so far this year was either once destined for streaming (House Party, Magic Mike's Last Dance, Evil Dead Rise) or seemed doomed long in advance (Shazam 2).

[Shawn Robbins]

18 hours ago, AMC Theaters Enjoyer said:

Ah my bad. In my defense though Deadline was talking up $160M as a high end close to release

https://deadline.com/2017/05/guardians-of-the-galaxy-vol-2-domestic-box-office-opening-disney-1202081877/

It may not be the case at all, but it's possible the BOP headline from March 2017 could have been where that 150 figure came from. (This was a few years before I switched to ranges in the long range article table itself.)

 

https://www.boxofficepro.com/long-range-forecast-guardians-galaxy-vol-2/

 

[Last Man Standing]

2 hours ago, filmlover said:

I'm sure WB's marketing will really ramp up for the summer movies that they clearly have a lot more faith in (The Flash, Barbie). Everything they've put out so far this year was either once destined for streaming (House Party, Magic Mike's Last Dance, Evil Dead Rise) or seemed doomed long in advance (Shazam 2).

Why would Evil Dead Rise be destined for streaming? Horror is one of the most consistent genres right now in the box office.

[ddddeeee]

4 minutes ago, Last Man Standing said:

Why would Evil Dead Rise be destined for streaming? Horror is one of the most consistent genres right now in the box office.

It was originally set to debut on HBOMax. They changed their minds after it tested so well.

[CoolioD1]

3 hours ago, CJohn said:

What the hell happened with Evil Dead Rise? I am still expecting 20M+ OW.

preview next weekend's thread

[TheFlatLannister]

Anyone has official Renfield and Pope's Exorcist Thursday number which excludes any EA? 

 

Need the numbers for comps 

[keysersoze123]

On 4/13/2023 at 9:44 AM, keysersoze123 said:

Guardians of the Galaxy: Vol 3

MTC1 Wed - 3532/17472 163725.00 58 shows

MTC1 Thursday(T-22) - 90531/1148493 1623158.29 7022 shows +1714

 

Guardians of the Galaxy: Vol 3

MTC1 Wed - 3633/17472 168390.00 58 shows

MTC1 Thursday(T-22) - 92109/1145351 1649666.97 7002 shows +1578

 

Ant 3 sold 2818 tickets but did slow down after that. GOTG3 is at 72.5% at gross level at MTC1. Next week it should go up unless it slows down even more. 

[screambaby]

Wow evil dead crashing

[SpiderByte]

I had forgotten Evil Dead Rise was no longer a streaming release, which goes to show how the marketing has been